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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

  • 01-02-2021 5:24pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,795 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    This is the build up thread (hopefully not the last!) for the potential easterly or northeasterly.

    Deepening cold air is gathering over Scandinavia and the Baltics and there is some reason to think at least some of that is heading this direction toward the weekend most likely from Friday.

    anim_oxd5.gif

    The proviso here is that there is uncertainty as to the extent and depth of the cold air across the various models that will reach our shores. However, given the time of year, and depth of cold air available to be fetched it would not take much to bring disruptive winter weather here so it would be advisable to keep up to date on a "just in case" basis.

    With an easterly the focus on snow, mostly in the form of showers, is always broadly in the eastern half of the country (and on the south coast) while the focus for the coldest minima temperatures is the western half of the country. A northeasterly can also bring the far northwest of the country in for enhanced snow shower activity.

    It's too early to speculate on precipitation distribution throughout the country though.

    Projected warning level hazards

    • Snow
    • Ice
    • Low temperature
    • Polar bears roaming the Pheonix Park


    Potential warning levels:

    Yellow/Orange

    In depth model discussion here

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058137515

    It's a tad early for in depth charts but I'll post them here closer the time as things firm up more either way.

    gfs-0-150.png?12

    It could end up something potentially disruptive like that above or more benign.

    Let's see what happens in the coming days.

    P.S please let's keep this a fun but informative (all-be-it speculative for now) thread. There is no point getting rattled if it's not going your way. The weather will do what the weather will do :cool:

    Disclaimer: Some of this may not happen


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭ froog


    giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e475od6smt9lh6ivsu24vmjp44fgjlb6pw6p2nowgkz&rid=giphy.gif

    giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47tv2k2mm0kilbqaqryvo7k8rog6zt6vdnw6arezcs&rid=giphy.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    Looking at that Gif its like there is a forcefield around the country just blocking the cold from coming in.

    The Cork snow shield bigger brother.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,795 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Lucreto wrote: »
    Looking at that Gif its like there is a forcefield around the country just blocking the cold from coming in.

    The Cork snow shield bigger brother.

    I'll update it this evening. Just shows the cold pool gathering over Scandi. :D


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    While you're waiting for the 12z ecmwf, here's columbus circle in manhattan today

    https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1356285918198562818?s=19


  • Registered Users Posts: 981 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    While you're waiting for the 12z ecmwf, here's columbus circle in manhattan today

    https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1356285918198562818?s=19

    Let's hope that their cold weather doesn't fire up the Jet Stream and ruin it for us.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,353 ✭✭✭ AllForIt


    John Kettley said this morning there is a beast from the east on the way for the weekend. So it is actually happening : )


  • Registered Users Posts: 331 ✭✭ Paso Fino


    But will it snow in my location :P

    Fingers crossed for even more nice looking charts in the coming days


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,747 ✭✭✭ Mac Taylor


    I’m planning on travelling somewhere over the weekend (Within Covid-19 limits) will I be able to.....what should I pack in the boot?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭ Bogwoppit


    Mac Taylor wrote: »
    what should I pack in the boot?

    Bread..... lots of it


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    The lack of proper heights to our North still concerns me!!
    If we had stronger Greenland heights I'd say yes let's ramp. We should really give it an extra 24hours
    Remember if it can go wrong it usually does especially with flimsy, weakish heights


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    As we'd say round these parts, Dowtcha Kermit! There ain't no thread like a Darkman thread.....


  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sweet divine Lord
    This would lead to an almighty snowfest of snow streamers in East Leinster
    Just one week away
    Thunder Snow and Ice days

    image.png.301f6e6462889fdffbd4e10902908de3.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Very tasty looking charts this evening if cold snowy weather is your thing.....ECM which didn't want to know yesterday now has a northerly and low uppers in by Friday 😂 and then turning even colder by Sunday through to the end of the run with bitter east to north east winds. Looks like it is setting up a battleground snow fall for following weekend but that is a long way off .....UKMO, both GFS models as well as the other models all bringing in the very cold air for next week....getting excited now as I felt all along that this winter was building up to a big event.. and it seems to be really firming up now with everyone in the game.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,795 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Lucreto wrote: »
    Looking at that Gif its like there is a forcefield around the country just blocking the cold from coming in.

    The Cork snow shield bigger brother.

    That's better...

    anim_xir0.gif

    nvi0yTR.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,440 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    As someone who lives in Kildare I must not get excited just yet :D as it can all change later

    But to be fair I really thought ECM would have went against GFS. My god it blew it out of the water. The hand is still on the fence but I’m literally about to let go.. XD


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,900 ✭✭✭ Tom Cruises Left Nut


    pad199207 wrote: »
    As someone who lives in Kildare I must not get excited just yet :D as it can all change later

    But to be fair I really thought ECM would have went against GFS. My god it blew it out of the water.

    Oh God me too


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭ mcburns07


    How is Cork likely to fare if the setups being shown verify?

    More specifically East Cork :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    pad199207 wrote: »
    As someone who lives in Kildare I must not get excited just yet :D as it can all change later

    But to be fair I really thought ECM would have went against GFS. My god it blew it out of the water. The hand is still on the fence but I’m literally about to let go.. XD

    I certainly was not expecting the ECM to unleash such beauty. I was expecting at best a half way house between yesterdays ECM and today's GFS 12z.

    I'm still feeling cautious about what are we going to wake up to tomorrow. As of now all the models need to catch up to the ECM.


  • Registered Users Posts: 154 ✭✭ teddybones


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    How is Cork likely to fare if the setups being shown verify?

    More specifically East Cork :D

    If I remember correctly in 2018 the easterlies were good to you in Cork. Wicklow town missed out on convective due to IOM shadow and was dry as bone while my eldest daughter was trudging through snow in Cork city but then wicklow got buried with the low coming in from the west turning to snow and all was well. Thankfully


    Actually maybe it was Anglesea shadow. Anyway there was some disruptive shadow, maybe as it was due east the sea fetch was too short. We got there in the end with Emma though ðŸ˜


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    The BFTE was very dissapointing here in Meath too in terms of snow, we got about 4 or 5cm from it as we were under the IOM Shadow for the majority of it. Once Storm Emma arrived the snow just kept piling up even if there was snow melt going on throughout each day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,321 ✭✭✭ FastFullBack


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    How is Cork likely to fare if the setups being shown verify?

    More specifically East Cork :D

    More of this hopefully

    RHY5KcMLrhyScTKv5


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,795 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    We might be able to raise the thread alert level to "mittens" tomorrow all going well


  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    I can’t even type after that run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭ mcburns07


    More of this hopefully

    RHY5KcMLrhyScTKv5

    :D

    We did extremely well in my locality during the BFTE. I'm 5km from the coast to the south (Ballycotton Bay), 10km to the coast to the east (Youghal Bay). There were some epic snowdrifts here.

    IMG-0396.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,795 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    NMB wrote: »
    I can’t even type after that run.

    You must be really fast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    You must be really fast.

    Snow joke frog


  • Registered Users Posts: 118 ✭✭ KingJeremy


    Is this looking like a nationwide event or just the east coast? So far this winter we have missed out on the snow in east county Galway/Tipperary border. We got a light dusting 2 Sunday’s ago but that was it.

    *Edit: I don’t think my poor heart can take another disappointment :-(


  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The BFTE was very dissapointing here in Meath too in terms of snow, we got about 4 or 5cm from it as we were under the IOM Shadow for the majority of it. Once Storm Emma arrived the snow just kept piling up even if there was snow melt going on throughout each day.

    Are you north Meath gonzo


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    bazlers wrote: »
    Are you north Meath gonzo

    south Meath, half way between Navan and Blanchardstown.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 753 ✭✭✭ thejuggler


    Mac Taylor wrote: »
    I’m planning on travelling somewhere over the weekend (Within Covid-19 limits) will I be able to.....what should I pack in the boot?
    Toilet rolls! .......Never enough toilet rolls!


This discussion has been closed.
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