Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Chat

Kermit.de.frog

This is the build up thread (hopefully not the last!) for the potential easterly or northeasterly.

Deepening cold air is gathering over Scandinavia and the Baltics and there is some reason to think at least some of that is heading this direction toward the weekend most likely from Friday.



The proviso here is that there is uncertainty as to the extent and depth of the cold air across the various models that will reach our shores. However, given the time of year, and depth of cold air available to be fetched it would not take much to bring disruptive winter weather here so it would be advisable to keep up to date on a "just in case" basis.

With an easterly the focus on snow, mostly in the form of showers, is always broadly in the eastern half of the country (and on the south coast) while the focus for the coldest minima temperatures is the western half of the country. A northeasterly can also bring the far northwest of the country in for enhanced snow shower activity.

It's too early to speculate on precipitation distribution throughout the country though.

Projected warning level hazards

• Snow
• Ice
• Low temperature
• Polar bears roaming the Pheonix Park

Potential warning levels:

Yellow/Orange

In depth model discussion here

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058137515

It's a tad early for in depth charts but I'll post them here closer the time as things firm up more either way.



It could end up something potentially disruptive like that above or more benign.

Let's see what happens in the coming days.

P.S please let's keep this a fun but informative (all-be-it speculative for now) thread. There is no point getting rattled if it's not going your way. The weather will do what the weather will do :cool:

Disclaimer: Some of this may not happen

froog

Lucreto

Looking at that Gif its like there is a forcefield around the country just blocking the cold from coming in.

The Cork snow shield bigger brother.

Kermit.de.frog

Lucreto wrote: »

Looking at that Gif its like there is a forcefield around the country just blocking the cold from coming in.

The Cork snow shield bigger brother.

I'll update it this evening. Just shows the cold pool gathering over Scandi.

While you're waiting for the 12z ecmwf, here's columbus circle in manhattan today

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1356285918198562818?s=19

Lucreto

AuntySnow wrote: »

While you're waiting for the 12z ecmwf, here's columbus circle in manhattan today

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1356285918198562818?s=19

Let's hope that their cold weather doesn't fire up the Jet Stream and ruin it for us.

AllForIt

John Kettley said this morning there is a beast from the east on the way for the weekend. So it is actually happening : )

Paso Fino

But will it snow in my location :P

Fingers crossed for even more nice looking charts in the coming days

Mac Taylor

I’m planning on travelling somewhere over the weekend (Within Covid-19 limits) will I be able to.....what should I pack in the boot?

Bogwoppit

Mac Taylor wrote: »

what should I pack in the boot?

Bread..... lots of it

JanuarySnowstor

The lack of proper heights to our North still concerns me!!
If we had stronger Greenland heights I'd say yes let's ramp. We should really give it an extra 24hours
Remember if it can go wrong it usually does especially with flimsy, weakish heights

Rebelbrowser

As we'd say round these parts, Dowtcha Kermit! There ain't no thread like a Darkman thread.....

Sweet divine Lord
This would lead to an almighty snowfest of snow streamers in East Leinster
Just one week away
Thunder Snow and Ice days

Snowbiee21

Very tasty looking charts this evening if cold snowy weather is your thing.....ECM which didn't want to know yesterday now has a northerly and low uppers in by Friday 😂 and then turning even colder by Sunday through to the end of the run with bitter east to north east winds. Looks like it is setting up a battleground snow fall for following weekend but that is a long way off .....UKMO, both GFS models as well as the other models all bringing in the very cold air for next week....getting excited now as I felt all along that this winter was building up to a big event.. and it seems to be really firming up now with everyone in the game.....

Kermit.de.frog

Lucreto wrote: »

Looking at that Gif its like there is a forcefield around the country just blocking the cold from coming in.

The Cork snow shield bigger brother.

That's better...

pad199207

As someone who lives in Kildare I must not get excited just yet as it can all change later

But to be fair I really thought ECM would have went against GFS. My god it blew it out of the water. The hand is still on the fence but I’m literally about to let go.. XD

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pad199207 wrote: »

As someone who lives in Kildare I must not get excited just yet as it can all change later

But to be fair I really thought ECM would have went against GFS. My god it blew it out of the water.

Oh God me too

mcburns07

How is Cork likely to fare if the setups being shown verify?

More specifically East Cork

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

As someone who lives in Kildare I must not get excited just yet as it can all change later

But to be fair I really thought ECM would have went against GFS. My god it blew it out of the water. The hand is still on the fence but I’m literally about to let go.. XD

I certainly was not expecting the ECM to unleash such beauty. I was expecting at best a half way house between yesterdays ECM and today's GFS 12z.

I'm still feeling cautious about what are we going to wake up to tomorrow. As of now all the models need to catch up to the ECM.

teddybones

mcburns07 wrote: »

How is Cork likely to fare if the setups being shown verify?

More specifically East Cork

If I remember correctly in 2018 the easterlies were good to you in Cork. Wicklow town missed out on convective due to IOM shadow and was dry as bone while my eldest daughter was trudging through snow in Cork city but then wicklow got buried with the low coming in from the west turning to snow and all was well. Thankfully


Actually maybe it was Anglesea shadow. Anyway there was some disruptive shadow, maybe as it was due east the sea fetch was too short. We got there in the end with Emma though ðŸ˜

Gonzo

The BFTE was very dissapointing here in Meath too in terms of snow, we got about 4 or 5cm from it as we were under the IOM Shadow for the majority of it. Once Storm Emma arrived the snow just kept piling up even if there was snow melt going on throughout each day.

FastFullBack

mcburns07 wrote: »

How is Cork likely to fare if the setups being shown verify?

More specifically East Cork

More of this hopefully

Kermit.de.frog

We might be able to raise the thread alert level to "mittens" tomorrow all going well

NMB

I can’t even type after that run.

mcburns07

FastFullBack wrote: »

More of this hopefully

We did extremely well in my locality during the BFTE. I'm 5km from the coast to the south (Ballycotton Bay), 10km to the coast to the east (Youghal Bay). There were some epic snowdrifts here.

Kermit.de.frog

NMB wrote: »

I can’t even type after that run.

You must be really fast.

NMB

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You must be really fast.

Snow joke frog

KingJeremy

Is this looking like a nationwide event or just the east coast? So far this winter we have missed out on the snow in east county Galway/Tipperary border. We got a light dusting 2 Sunday’s ago but that was it.

*Edit: I don’t think my poor heart can take another disappointment :-(

bazlers

Gonzo wrote: »

The BFTE was very dissapointing here in Meath too in terms of snow, we got about 4 or 5cm from it as we were under the IOM Shadow for the majority of it. Once Storm Emma arrived the snow just kept piling up even if there was snow melt going on throughout each day.

Are you north Meath gonzo

Gonzo

bazlers wrote: »

Are you north Meath gonzo

south Meath, half way between Navan and Blanchardstown.

thejuggler

Mac Taylor wrote: »

I’m planning on travelling somewhere over the weekend (Within Covid-19 limits) will I be able to.....what should I pack in the boot?

Toilet rolls! .......Never enough toilet rolls!

bazlers

I can see ECM rolling back a bit. I think it went a bit extreme. Hope im wrong.

Paso Fino

Paso Fino wrote: »

But will it snow in my location :P

Fingers crossed for even more nice looking charts in the coming days

It will snow 5.1 km up the road from you.

bazlers

Gonzo wrote: »

south Meath, half way between Navan and Blanchardstown.

North east offaly on kildare border. We got a foot id say.
Wouldnt be miles away as the crow flies. Just the way the streamers line up

Gonzo

bazlers wrote: »

I can see ECM rolling back a bit. I think it went a bit extreme. Hope im wrong.

I think after today's big upgrades a few downgrades are inevitable, hopefully nothing too major.

GFS Pub run is updating, what I would like to see is more of those mild outliers between February 5th and 11th going colder and the mean dipping down further. There are still a few GFS members not on board at all with this cold spell, we need them all onboard over the next few days.

As for the ECM somewhere between the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z would be fine.

Gonzo

bazlers wrote: »

North east offaly on kildare border. We got a foot id say.
Wouldnt be miles away as the crow flies. Just the way the streamers line up

During the BFTE Dublin/Kildare all the way to Offally/Westmeath did very well, north and south of this area didn't do so great. The Shadows were quite cruel during BFTE with large areas of Wicklow, Wexford and Meath with little or no snow cover until Emma came along.

If we do get this cold spell from Saturday I hope the wind direction is a bit more forgiving and variable so more places get a decent shot at the streamers.

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z isn't as good as the low blows up to our Southeast. Still bitter cold but goes to show a proper easterly is not set in stone.
Lots can change, more runs needed before we can say this cold spell is a certainty

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

The Shadows were quite cruel during BFTE with large areas of Wicklow, Wexford and Meath with little or no snow cover until Emma came along.

I dont know Gonzo, we had quite a fair bit of snow before emma arrived, we are not to far away from Lobinstown, i remember going for a walk and their was drifts in places that were waist high

As for whats ahead, if snow is not on the menu, i'll take sunny, cold and dry

JanuarySnowstor

@ 168 hrs heights evaporate to our North.
I know I sound like a broken record but without proper heights to our North this cold spell can't sustain itself imo!!

Gonzo

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The 18z isn't as good as the low blows up to our Southeast. Still bitter cold but goes to show a proper easterly is not set in stone.
Lots can change, more runs needed before we can say this cold spell is a certainty

it's a definite downgrade, particularly for England and less snow for us too, the cold getting pushed back into Scotland as early as Monday/Tuesday. However until the runs are all completed we need to verify if this is a mild outlier before getting too worried.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

it's a definite downgrade, particularly for England and less snow for us too, the cold getting pushed back into Scotland as early as Monday/Tuesday. However until the runs are all completed we need to verify if this is a mild outlier before getting too worried.

Also, the initial cold is there. That's the priority as that's what's coming into more reliable forecasting timeframes

Nqp15hhu

This is why I prefer N/Ne air streams. The cold air is not coming from thousands of miles away.

bosco12345

Gonzo wrote: »

The BFTE was very dissapointing here in Meath too in terms of snow, we got about 4 or 5cm from it as we were under the IOM Shadow for the majority of it. Once Storm Emma arrived the snow just kept piling up even if there was snow melt going on throughout each day.

I live in Cavan along the meath border and we got buried in snow. +25cm before storm Emma which didn't give us anything other than strong winds. What part of Meath are you in?

pad199207

So glad I held onto that fence

sicknotexi

If we're disappointed over this run then we really are in a good position. Should all be sorted by Wednesday evening, not every run is going to be perfect.

Gonzo

I've a feeling this is a mild outlier, it's quite different to the past few GFS runs.

TheMilkyPirate

Gonzo wrote: »

During the BFTE Dublin/Kildare all the way to Offally/Westmeath did very well, north and south of this area didn't do so great. The Shadows were quite cruel during BFTE with large areas of Wicklow, Wexford and Meath with little or no snow cover until Emma came along.

If we do get this cold spell from Saturday I hope the wind direction is a bit more forgiving and variable so more places get a decent shot at the streamers.

I don't think we had any snow at all here in Wexford before Emma came along if I remember it correctly. That all changed completely the night of March 1st however.

Not worried about the 18z. If the other models came towards that conclusion then I would take notice. Parallel is fairly ****e too though tbf

highdef

I don't think we're likely to see scenes such as those in the attached video I made in 2018 in North Kildare, close to the Meath border.

An Ri rua

Sesame St Bets Kermie.

We like the charts...

Birdnuts

highdef wrote: »

I don't think we're likely to see scenes such as those in the attached video I made in 2018 in North Kildare, close to the Meath border.

Yeah - my folks live just outside Kill Village and they say it was even worse than the famous Dec 81' event.

redsteveireland

Birdnuts wrote: »

Yeah - my folks live just outside Kill Village and they say it was even worse than the famous Dec 81' event.

Moved to Kill after the 81/82 event only have pictures to remember it, I was too small. My folks sent me some great pictures from 2018. This will be tame, IMO.