Covid 19 Part XXXII-215,743 ROI (4,137 deaths)111,166 NI (2,036 deaths)(22/02)Read OP

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

It is necessarily the case.
How do you think one strain comes to dominate another?

We've had 3 dominant strains so far throughout the pandemic:

All 3 have occurred when the incidence rate in the country has been low and the strain in question was seeded from countries with a much higher incidence rate.
Last March/Italy-Austria?
Summer/Spain
Christmas/UK
If you have people arriving from an area with higher incidence rate (and a dominant strain) en masse into a country with a much lower incidence rate, it stands to reason it will become a dominant strain.

robbiezero

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

I spent christmas up a mountain. Saw no one, met no one. I'm not to blame. I have neither caught nor spread the virus at any point.

Blasphemy. We are all sinners.

SusieBlue

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If we need to be furious with anyone, we need look no further than ourselves. A wonderful Christmas present we've given ourselves.

So, you tell us, how do we get out of this mess? Because the only solution I'm seeing from a lot of posters here is ignore it. Wish away our problems, don't get tested, great strategy.

I’ve already seen several people reply to you on this subject, the Christmas surge was caused by a perfect storm of poor decisions.
The 6 week ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown caused a pressure cooker scenario, where there was extremely high demand for non essential retail, personal services, gyms and social contact come December.
We were barely a few days into it when we were threatened with another impending lockdown, and after an extremely crap year people were not willing to forego seeing their loved ones during the brief window where it was allowed.
What did you think was going to happen?

If they had closed hospitality and possibly banned household visits but allowed retail, personal services, gyms and outdoor mixing to continue, there wouldn’t have been anywhere near as much pent up demand for pretty much everything come December.
Add in the highly contagious UK variant and the fact that they didn’t stop flights from coming in or enforce quarantine, and none of what happened is remotely surprising.

And I think it goes without saying that I don’t think it’s unreasonable that I expect a better plan than just indefinite lockdown.
They have to give us something. People are feeling beyond hopeless and the sanctimonious finger wagging about how we were ‘bold’ over Christmas just isn’t washing any more.
It isn’t selfish or unreasonable to want to see your family and have some semblance of normality after a full year of trusting the government to get us out of this mess, only for them to repeatedly drop the ball and for us to be denied even a shred of hope in return.

What they’re offering just isn’t good enough considering the level of personal sacrifice we have all made over the last year.

CoronaBlocker

Ficheall wrote: »

Indeed...

Do you go to an accountant to get the leak in your sink fixed?

MrMusician18

muddypuppy wrote: »

Can you blame people when that's the message that the government is putting out? We got the "level 5 for another 9 week" message, the "lockdown until after summer" message, the "no international holidays until after 2022" message, the "we will have to continue with restrictions even in 2022" message, the "if you're very good we might allow few outdoor sports in may" message. We barely got any positive message.

I really hope this new "living with covid plan" will change the tides, but I'm not holding my breath.

Do you want them to lie to you? Ultimately, they have no idea when things can revert with any degree of certainty, because progress depends on factors outside of their control. Vaccine supply, community spread and behaviour, new variants all can change and change quickly. We here have the luxury of only being responsible for ourselves so are free to speculate without having different sectors or special interest groups ready to hang us.

The world isn't a wonderful place, sometimes there is no positive message. I think it's a little bit childish to always expect one.

SusieBlue

seamus wrote: »

We won't be in full level five until the end of June.

Maybe the start of April. Even then we may see moves to Level 4 or 4+ by mid-March.

We have been here before. Last year the five phase reopening plan was announced, and then quickly was reworked into four phases and brought forward as the situation improved.

We're on track for the same outcome this time in reality.

We are on track to reopen most industries on the exact same timeline as we did last year, except last year we went into lockdown mid March, and this year we will have been in lockdown since December 31st.
That is not an indication of success, in my opinion. We are in a worse position because we will have spent longer without these services (and the people in them without jobs) than we did during the first lockdown last year.

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

We've had 3 dominant strains so far throughout the pandemic:

All 3 have occurred when the incidence rate in the country has been low and the strain in question was seeded from countries with a much higher incidence rate.
Last March/Italy-Austria?
Summer/Spain
Christmas/UK
If you have people arriving from an area with higher incidence rate (and a dominant strain) en masse into a country with a much lower incidence rate, it stands to reason it will become a dominant strain.

Yes, if you give a strain an inherent advantage it will grow to be the dominant strain.
If a strain is given no advantage but grows to become the dominant strain anyway, then it is strong evidence that it is more transmissible.

This is now being repeated in country after country. I'm afraid it's case close, lads.

I'm not going to waste my time posting links to studies that are only now being peer reviewed. I've seen how people simply dismiss these.

Ficheall

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Do you go to an accountant to get the leak in your sink fixed?

No, but if a plumber told me my sink was fine and the accountant told me there was water pissing out of the side of the tap, I wouldn't leap to saying "What would you know, you're only a stupid accountant.."

seamus

SusieBlue wrote: »

We are on track to reopen most industries on the exact same timeline as we did last year, except last year we went into lockdown mid March, and this year we will have been in lockdown since December 31st.
That is not an indication of success, in my opinion. We are in a worse position because we will have spent longer without these services (and the people in them without jobs) than we did during the first lockdown last year.

I'm just pointing out that we will not be in level 5 for the entire first half of the year, so there's no need to get yourself into a tiz about something that won't happen. End of April would be bad enough, but even that's unlikely to come to pass.

Doctor Jimbob

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yes, if you give a strain an inherent advantage it will grow to be the dominant strain.
If a strain is given no advantage but grows to become the dominant strain anyway, then it is strong evidence that it is more transmissible.

This is now being repeated in country after country. I'm afraid it's case close, lads.

I'm not going to waste my time posting links to studies that are only now being peer reviewed. I've seen how people simply dismiss these.

Do you know for certain that this strain didn't have an inherent advantage?

Is there a reason you're pushing ideas that you're aware are still being peer reviewed as undeniable fact?

Rebelbrowser

New GP stats for yesterday are out, middle sized jumps in referrals and likely positives (which you'd expect on a Monday) - in fact figures are worse than this day last week (but not much in it)

SeaMermaid

It was very encouraging seeing the covid case numbers drop yesterday and I hope it continues. I'm hating the lockdown and the restrictions and I'm missing so much - my family across the country, the local hotel, eating out, the gym, the hairdresser, the shops that are closed and considered non essential. I would like to see a loosening up of the restrictions like say allowing county travel, some shops opening up. Christmas is over and I can't see that level of mixing and socialising happen again so I don't think a jump in cases will be likely to occur. Maybe if cases come down more to say like 500, maybe an easing could happen then.

I hate the lockdown but I will be continuing with the restrictions and guidelines as they are because it doesn't make sense to break them and risk contracting the virus and be responsible be transmitting onto others. If everyone did that, we would have continue into lockdown. I firmly believe we are in lockdown because some of the population don't know how to behave during this pandemic and don't know how to maintain social distancing. The government had to step in and lock us down at Christmas time when the numbers were rising rapidly Christmas week. Anyone who cared for their health would be avoiding crowds. Instead the gastro pubs were packed out right up til Christmas eve. If anyone is wondering why we are in lockdown, this is it. There's a highly infectious disease that some people like to write off.

CoronaBlocker

b0nk1e wrote: »

Ah, it was the people who decided to implement mass house arrest for Irish people whilst letting thousands of Brazilian "students" swan into the country?

I must have been out the day I was asked.

Funny story: my newly ex-girlfriend is Brazilian. She's had double-digit, multi-day get-togethers in her house (she got her own 4-bed house as she is an Irish citizen through a former marriage and has two kids) at least 10 times since the October lockdown began. There were over 30 people in her house at christmas. All Brazilians. I know at least 4 of them are on visas that are finished. All still work full time (40 hours) here.

Her 72 year old mother and down-syndrome brother have been over from Brazil since February last year.

None of them contracted Covid. Not one.

She ended the relationship with me because I kept refusing to visit.

Sweet.Science

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

New GP stats for yesterday are out, middle sized jumps in referrals and likely positives (which you'd expect on a Monday) - in fact figures are worse than this day last week (but not much in it)

Cant see huge drops in cases going forward. Especially when schools open . People have had enough

Its time for the vaccines to have an affect instead

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yes, if you give a strain an inherent advantage it will grow to be the dominant strain.
If a strain is given no advantage but grows to become the dominant strain anyway, then it is strong evidence that it is more transmissible.

This is now being repeated in country after country. I'm afraid it's case close, lads.

I'm not going to waste my time posting links to studies that are only now being peer reviewed. I've seen how people simply dismiss these.

I'm not saying the UK strain is not more infectious, I'm saying that stating that because a strain becomes the dominant strain is evidence of it being more infectious is incorrect. Simply because Strain X is dominant is not evidence that Strain X is more infectious (especially when it migrates from a high incidence rate to a lower one, UK -> IRL)

Not all dominant strains are more infectious, but more infectious strains would eventually become the more dominant strain (to use the All thumbs are fingers, but not all fingers are thumbs analogy)

Tokyo

Mod: Sweet.Science - you're walking a very fine line with the personalized commentary. Rein it in.

CoronaBlocker

Ficheall wrote: »

No, but if a plumber told me my sink was fine and the accountant told me there was water pissing out of the side of the tap, I wouldn't leap to saying "What would you know, you're only a stupid accountant.."

Lol! Bit of a stretch boss. Knock it off.

muddypuppy

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Do you want them to lie to you? Ultimately, they have no idea when things can revert with any degree of certainty, because progress depends on factors outside of their control. Vaccine supply, community spread and behaviour, new variants all can change and change quickly. We here have the luxury of only being responsible for ourselves so are free to speculate without having different sectors or special interest groups ready to hang us.

The world isn't a wonderful place, sometimes there is no positive message. I think it's a little bit childish to always expect one.

They are already lying to us, because as you say everything can change so it doesn't really make sense to say anything long term in interviews.
What I want is a proper plan. Not this "we will review in 4 weeks but don't hold your breath", not this "mixed informations we give to tabloid at 10pm". Plans can always change, but let's start putting one out with moving targets so that people can have something to look up, and let's start giving carrots to people by allowing low risk activities to reopen asap.

I hope this is what will come out of today's announcement, but my current expectation is half an hour of saying they're going to open the school, blame people, not addressing any hard question (or the media not asking them) and say they'll review in 4 weeks.
We had a reopening plan last year, I just want the same.

Deeper Blue

TonyMaloney wrote: »

This is now being repeated in country after country. I'm afraid it's case close, lads.

If it's "case closed" then it should be easy to provide evidence so please do

Gruffalux

Whatever frustrations people feel etc etc, all understandable, especially with the shyte weather, but seriously "pent up demand" is not really any good excuse for having hurtled out of lockdown to sit slobbering stupidly in each others laps during thronged lock ins from Belmullet to Wexford over the Christmas. And then to go home to the Ma and Da. There was no inorganic systemic pressure that helplessly herded people to their activities. It just does not wash with me that people are not responsible for what they do.

CoronaBlocker

Gruffalux wrote: »

Whatever frustrations people feel etc etc, all understandable, especially with the shyte weather, but seriously "pent up demand" is not really any good excuse for having hurtled out of lockdown to sit slobbering stupidly in each others laps during thronged lock ins from Belmullet to Wexford over the Christmas. And then to go home to the Ma and Da. There was no inorganic systemic pressure that helplessly herded people to their activities. It just does not wash with me that people are not responsible for what they do.

People are stupid - that's why society has evolved structures of leadership and chains of command/responsibility (and also gods that leaders can point to when they need back up - but that one's for another day!).

If people act stupidly, collectively, it's because their leadership has served them ill.

stephenjmcd

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

New GP stats for yesterday are out, middle sized jumps in referrals and likely positives (which you'd expect on a Monday) - in fact figures are worse than this day last week (but not much in it)

Certain counties causing that small increase if you look at the county data.

Most progressing nicely, even Dublin for the amount of criticism it gets

CruelSummer

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9290029/Britains-coronavirus-lockdown-one-toughest-WORLD-study-claims.html

Ireland, land of the strictest lockdown in the Western World according to the tabloid British.

I see no plan written all over the Government and NPHET's faces. NPHET have a fantasy of 'prolonged suppresion' which really means Zero Covid light. Zero Covid is done now after the route the U.K. have taken yesterday, we need to quickly follow in line with vaccinations or there'll be a mass movement of people to the North and U.K. in the coming months for all sorts of 'essential' reasons.

iamwhoiam

Good article here and she is right . About time the public were treated with the respect we deserve from Government



https://m.independent.ie/opinion/comment/we-started-so-well-heres-what-went-wrong-for-irelands-team-spirit-in-lockdown-40121415.html



or good leadership to work, the leaders need to be visible, communication must be clear and everybody needs to feel a sense of purpose. Sadly, our leaders have faltered and we’re now in the position where nobody knows what’s happening, the communication is random and the public feel resentful. There are clear principles of good leadership during a crisis, this is not new territory and history shows us how good and bad leaders operate. Good leaders present credible information in a clear manner, use appropriate communicate channels to show what needs to be done and remain visible and available during a crisis.

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm not saying the UK strain is not more infectious, I'm saying that stating that because a strain becomes the dominant strain is evidence of it being more infectious is incorrect. Simply because Strain X is dominant is not evidence that Strain X is more infectious (especially when it migrates from a high incidence rate to a lower one, UK -> IRL)

Not all dominant strains are more infectious, but more infectious strains would eventually become the more dominant strain (to use the All thumbs are fingers, but not all fingers are thumbs analogy)

It would be one hell of a coincidence for B117 to become the dominant strain across multiple countries and regions, if it were not more infectious.
It has. It is.

We also see the evidence of it now in our own data, with most old strains all but wiped out, and B117 still ticking along.

I think a lot of people here, not necessarily yourself Wolf, are engaged in a bit of wishful thinking.
It's widely accepted across the board - From Tegnell to Holohan - The B117 strain is significantly more infectious.

SusieBlue

SusieBlue wrote: »

We are on track to reopen most industries on the exact same timeline as we did last year, except last year we went into lockdown mid March, and this year we will have been in lockdown since December 31st.
That is not an indication of success, in my opinion. We are in a worse position because we will have spent longer without these services (and the people in them without jobs) than we did during the first lockdown last year.

This is what happens when you give awkward scientists the opportunity to wield political power.

The pandemic, for them, is an opportunity to perform an experiment; a poor experiment and one with disastrous results. And naturally, they care nothing for ordinary people - all that matters is the lab results and crunching numbers.

Professor Nolan and the Eternal Prefect, Ronan Glynn, exemplify this attitude.

It's now time for the politicians to take back control - to take "advice" from NPHET and to factor that advice into the many other factors that go into running a successful country.

We don't want Michael Martin to throw us a bone; this time, there must be some substantial meat attached.

Otherwise, people will grow lethargic and more likely to breach restrictions.

The perma-lockdown hasn't worked. It's time, like the rest of Europe, to move on and open up to a reasonable, sensible, mature, and cautious degree.

If other European countries have so far managed opening up successfully, there is no reason why we are unable to, either.

Happydays2020

If this is true, it is quite sinister

https://twitter.com/griptmedia/status/1364193937955692545?s=21

retro:electro

seamus wrote: »

I'm just pointing out that we will not be in level 5 for the entire first half of the year, so there's no need to get yourself into a tiz about something that won't happen. End of April would be bad enough, but even that's unlikely to come to pass.

You cannot accuse people of “getting into a tiz” for reacting on information that has come directly from government. Micheál said in an interview last week that he does not see personal services opening until the late stages of quarter 2; ie June. That is six months without those services and while they were deemed unnecessary for the two weeks while we flattened the curve, six months down the line they are pretty necessary. Hair cuts and other personal services are not permitted currently until level 3, so by Micheál stating that it is clear he sees us being in at least level 4 until the end of June, and if this new plan is anything like the last sure level 4 and level 5 are basically two cheeks of the same arse.

People are not working off speculation here, but information that has come directly from the horse’s mouth. Airing grievances and frustrations about that is not “getting in a tiz”, it’s extremely rational at this point to be frustrated and overwhelmed by that revelation.

SeaMermaid

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Cant see huge drops in cases going forward. Especially when schools open . People have had enough

Its time for the vaccines to have an affect instead

Enough of what? Being protected by a public health strategy to minimise spread of a highly infectious disease? I have enough of lockdown and I am sick of it too but it's not about me and only me. If everyone adopted this attitude it will spread rapidly and we will see many kore people become sick and ill and many more deaths too. I know many people are callous and like to write deaths off as those who were coffin dodgers but that wasn't the case. Viral cases have to come down more for a successful reopening.

WoollyRedHat

Does anyone know when plan is going to be published?