Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

walus

At the start of this pandemic in Ireland I looked at this from a scientific point of view and concluded that because the risk for old and young were much, much different that a focused approach with a selective isolation of the most vulnerable and those who live and/or care for them would be the only reasonable and feasible way forward. This was back in the second week of April.

I was shocked seeing the strategy that the government has chosen to deal with this situation. For me current policies are only extending the period in which the virus sweeps through the population and expose the vulnerable to the risk of infection for a much longer period of time than it should be required. Lockdowns protect low risk part of population (college students, young professionals, kids), while the working class (bus drivers etc) need to make a living and are out there at risk of being exposes to the virus. We are protecting privilege classes and not those who really should be protected. A bus driver cannot work from home, while a young professional easily can. So the herd immunity development burden is being put on older working class people and not the young ones. I personally think it is myopic, one metrics – one goal, tunnel vision approach that is getting us nowhere.

Recently I came across this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz_Z7Gf1aRE and a declaration https://unherd.com/2020/10/covid-experts-there-is-another-way/?pt .

Three scientists from reasonably respected universities came together and urge the governments to take a different approach to covid pandemic. They suggest that we should protect the older and vulnerable, while letting the young adults and children go back to living lives as normal. This is to minimise the damage done to the young part of population and build up herd immunity not based on but assisted by vaccine (should it become available). According to them herd immunity is not as a strategy but a biological fact that is associated with most infectious diseases as they spread through population. They say that the collateral damage from prolonged restrictions and lockdowns to those less vulnerable groups must end. Their strategy is a science based approach (Focused Protection – aged targeted approach) and is based on exposing the less vulnerable to the virus more than those elderly and vulnerable. They believe 3 months is required for the pathogen to sweep through the society and advocate for accurate public risk messaging.

For example according to the Focused Protection a 60 year old bus driver could go on sabbatical for 3-6 months so that the herd immunity is established and they can go back to work. Instead the current approach allows almost everyone to take a sabbatical – rich and poor, young and old.

patnor1011

patnor1011 wrote: »

I believe that you do the same here. You just happens to be on opposite side. Why would you go to personal insults like saying he is a charlatan or trying to say that he has no right to say something without proper education?
So I am not allowed to have opinion and express it without having complete education in whatever I am talking about?

What is even more ridiculous is that according to you he cant have opinion or experience in nutrition just because he happens to study engineering before. Seriously?

He's not putting out YouTube videos as if it's simply his opinion. That's what's so dangerous about his nonsense. He packages it as if its an educational lecture. As if he's a qualified researcher in this specific field. He isn't. That's why people attack his credentials. It's as if Dr Fauci was a homeopath. Credentials do matter if you are pretending you are an authority figure on a subject. There is no "opposite side". Ivor Cummins is spreading misinformation. He is a charlatan.

Captain_Crash

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no "opposite side". Ivor Cummins is spreading misinformation. He is a charlatan.

Can you provide something he stated in his video and verifiable proof that what he said in not true? Several people have been asked and just said.. "oh but this thing he said was wrong and ohhh he's not qualified blah blah blah"


Serious questions, can you quote this message with something he said as fact, and the verifiable evidence that what he said was not true? Not trying to catch you out, but too many people just have a go at him and run away without providing any details as to why they have that opinion other than hes a biochemist. NPHET have several members who are not medically qualified, and I think one of them is a biochemist

Captain_Crash

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Can you provide something he stated in his video and verifiable proof that what he said in not true? Several people have been asked and just said.. "oh but this thing he said was wrong and ohhh he's not qualified blah blah blah"


Serious questions, can you quote this message with something he said as fact, and the verifiable evidence that what he said was not true? Not trying to catch you out, but too many people just have a go at him and run away without providing any details as to why they have that opinion other than hes a biochemist. NPHET have several members who are not medically qualified, and I think one of them is a biochemist

I've pointed out two things. Read the original thread.

Captain_Crash

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Can you provide something he stated in his video and verifiable proof that what he said in not true? Several people have been asked and just said.. "oh but this thing he said was wrong and ohhh he's not qualified blah blah blah"


Serious questions, can you quote this message with something he said as fact, and the verifiable evidence that what he said was not true? Not trying to catch you out, but too many people just have a go at him and run away without providing any details as to why they have that opinion other than hes a biochemist. NPHET have several members who are not medically qualified, and I think one of them is a biochemist

according to the chief ophthalmic surgeon at the matter private, there's 4 clinicians out of thirty something people on NEPHET at his time of checking. don't mind the usual empty vessels that are sold easily and exceptionally vocal when taking a day off shouting about Trump. You wont get an actual answer of credibility because their armchair scientists. they'll lump you with conspiracy claims and words like charlatan, just filter the terms and move on.

walus

walus wrote: »

At the start of this pandemic in Ireland I looked at this from a scientific point of view and concluded that because the risk for old and young were much, much different that a focused approach with a selective isolation of the most vulnerable and those who live and/or care for them would be the only reasonable and feasible way forward. This was back in the second week of April.

I was shocked seeing the strategy that the government has chosen to deal with this situation. For me current policies are only extending the period in which the virus sweeps through the population and expose the vulnerable to the risk of infection for a much longer period of time than it should be required. Lockdowns protect low risk part of population (college students, young professionals, kids), while the working class (bus drivers etc) need to make a living and are out there at risk of being exposes to the virus. We are protecting privilege classes and not those who really should be protected. A bus driver cannot work from home, while a young professional easily can. So the herd immunity development burden is being put on older working class people and not the young ones. I personally think it is myopic, one metrics – one goal, tunnel vision approach that is getting us nowhere.

Recently I came across this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz_Z7Gf1aRE and a declaration https://unherd.com/2020/10/covid-experts-there-is-another-way/?pt .

Three scientists from reasonably respected universities came together and urge the governments to take a different approach to covid pandemic. They suggest that we should protect the older and vulnerable, while letting the young adults and children go back to living lives as normal. This is to minimise the damage done to the young part of population and build up herd immunity not based on but assisted by vaccine (should it become available). According to them herd immunity is not as a strategy but a biological fact that is associated with most infectious diseases as they spread through population. They say that the collateral damage from prolonged restrictions and lockdowns to those less vulnerable groups must end. Their strategy is a science based approach (Focused Protection – aged targeted approach) and is based on exposing the less vulnerable to the virus more than those elderly and vulnerable. They believe 3 months is required for the pathogen to sweep through the society and advocate for accurate public risk messaging.

For example according to the Focused Protection a 60 year old bus driver could go on sabbatical for 3-6 months so that the herd immunity is established and they can go back to work. Instead the current approach allows almost everyone to take a sabbatical – rich and poor, young and old.

Herd immunity is the stuff of Facebook hoaxes without a vaccine and I would question any scientific knowledge you have by suggesting it as a solution. The WHO have said this week that even attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is not only impossible but unethical. Sweden are killing thousands of their people needlessly attempting it and getting nowhere (from a herd immunity or economic perspective). It’s a pipe dream, a fantasy that’s not possible without a vaccine.

Restrictions, distancing, hand washing, masks, WFH etc along with lockdowns are the only show in town I’m afraid and the sooner some wake up to that the better.

Captain_Crash

Deleted User wrote: »

I've pointed out two things. Read the original thread.

Then it wont be any hassle for you to copy and paste those things in here.

KennisWhale

Deleted User wrote: »

Lol.

I went through the video in depth after my sister posted it to the family WhatsApp. I'm not hugely bothered by randoms on the Internet being unable to think critically, but I had to step in when my family were being duped.

And yet, here you are on the internet with a bunch of randoms talking about it.

"I went through the points before, not here but somewhere else, you can take my word that I disproved the claims". Okay.

drunkmonkey

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Herd immunity is the stuff of Facebook hoaxes without a vaccine and I would question any scientific knowledge you have by suggesting it as a solution. The WHO have said this week that even attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is not only impossible but unethical. Sweden are killing thousands of their people needlessly attempting it and getting nowhere (from a herd immunity or economic perspective). It’s a pipe dream, a fantasy that’s not possible without a vaccine.

The thinking now is we already have a vaccine that most of the people in this country already had, the Australian BCG trial has been rolled out Globally and there now rolling it out to health care workers in the UK including Northern Ireland. We made a mistake not letting this run its course at the start of summer if there was already underlying immunity in the population.
The assumption by NPHET is there is no immunity in our population, they could be very wrong on that and we've nuked our way of life for nothing..

Captain_Crash

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Then it wont be any hassle for you to copy and paste those things in here.

I've literally posted it within the last two pages. The most glaring one is that he claims there is 80% immunity already amongst the population.

Penfailed

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54533643

Tight restrictions coming in north of the border from Friday. Two week school closure and pubs and restaurants to close for four weeks. Off licenses to be closed from 8pm.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He's not putting out YouTube videos as if it's simply his opinion. That's what's so dangerous about his nonsense. He packages it as if its an educational lecture. As if he's a qualified researcher in this specific field. He isn't. That's why people attack his credentials. It's as if Dr Fauci was a homeopath. Credentials do matter if you are pretending you are an authority figure on a subject. There is no "opposite side". Ivor Cummins is spreading misinformation. He is a charlatan.

I actually can't believe that I have to argue that expertise does matter. I keep getting sucked into this thread.

Quantum Erasure

Penfailed wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54533643

Tight restrictions coming in north of the border from Friday. Two week school closure and pubs and restaurants to close for four weeks. Off licenses to be closed from 8pm.

25 people can attend a wedding, but not allowed a reception. Shure why would ya have a wedding at all so?

...

Penfailed

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

25 people can attend a wedding, but not allowed a reception. Shure why would ya have a wedding at all so?

...

Indeed!

uli84

I’m just tired of constant threats in the news, stopped reading them but still every now n then some heading would cross in front of my eyes.
My god, in Poland they are just giving facts and even some hope, there is none of this “ Warning that Republic will follow North's Covid-19 trend without 'radical' change in behaviours this week” ****e

walus

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Herd immunity is the stuff of Facebook hoaxes without a vaccine and I would question any scientific knowledge you have by suggesting it as a solution. The WHO have said this week that even attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is not only impossible but unethical. Sweden are killing thousands of their people needlessly attempting it and getting nowhere (from a herd immunity or economic perspective). It’s a pipe dream, a fantasy that’s not possible without a vaccine.

Restrictions, distancing, hand washing, masks, WFH etc along with lockdowns are the only show in town I’m afraid and the sooner some wake up to that the better.

Nox, you are not in a position to question my scientific knowledge. Period. You have shown time and time again a complete lack of understanding of cause-effect relationship, and repeatedly ignored evidence that is contrarian to your version of reality. That is a fact and has been pointed to you by a number of people here.



What I brought up here is an opinion of independent and respected scientific thinkers, who believe that herd immunity is a biological fact and a cornerstone of our species survival, and is a primary mechanism that will let us continue to do so in the future. They don’t suggest to let the virus run wild through the population. They suggest a thoughtful and targeted approach based on herd immunity and assistance of a vaccine if and when it becomes available. I believe that this was and still is the only viable way to deal with this “pandemic”. I suggest you listen to evidence before commenting and questioning ones knowledge or opinion.

Captain_Crash

Deleted User wrote: »

I've literally posted it within the last two pages. The most glaring one is that he claims there is 80% immunity already amongst the population.

I haven't seen the video where he claims this, I'll check it out later today.

RoryMac

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Herd immunity is the stuff of Facebook hoaxes without a vaccine and I would question any scientific knowledge you have by suggesting it as a solution. The WHO have said this week that even attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is not only impossible but unethical. Sweden are killing thousands of their people needlessly attempting it and getting nowhere (from a herd immunity or economic perspective). It’s a pipe dream, a fantasy that’s not possible without a vaccine.

Restrictions, distancing, hand washing, masks, WFH etc along with lockdowns are the only show in town I’m afraid and the sooner some wake up to that the better.

Sweden certainly made some bad decisions early in this crisis with not protecting the nursing & care homes, the exact mistakes our Gov/NPHET made. The number of deaths in both countries is far higher than it should be because of that same mistake.

But I'm interested in why you say Sweden are killing thousands of their people needlessly because when I look at their numbers over the last few weeks they seem to be lower than ours even without taking into account the difference in population.

charlie14

RoryMac wrote: »

Sweden certainly made some bad decisions early in this crisis with not protecting the nursing & care homes, the exact mistakes our Gov/NPHET made. The number of deaths in both countries is far higher than it should be because of that same mistake.

But I'm interested in why you say Sweden are killing thousands of their people needlessly because when I look at their numbers over the last few weeks they seem to be lower than ours even without taking into account the difference in population.

When you take into account their population their deaths are over 60% greater than ours. Their increase in new cases began a few weeks after they did here. Their weekly test numbers are are also lower, around 130,000 to our 100,000 (adjusting for population) 65 for every 100 here.
They were aiming for herd immunity, but their antibody test results were no better than Spain or France based on large scale surveys in both those countries.

Penfailed

charlie14 wrote: »

When you take into account their population their deaths are over 60% greater than ours. Their increase in new cases began a few weeks after they did here. Their weekly test numbers are are also lower, around 130,000 to our 100,000 (adjusting for population) 65 for every 100 here.
They were aiming for herd immunity, but their antibody test results were no better than Spain or France based on large scale surveys in both those countries.

Waiting patiently for Fintan to come along and say, "...but their population is 60% older than ours..." or something.

Jorge Limited Maze

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Herd immunity is the stuff of Facebook hoaxes without a vaccine and I would question any scientific knowledge you have by suggesting it as a solution. The WHO have said this week that even attempting herd immunity without a vaccine is not only impossible but unethical. Sweden are killing thousands of their people needlessly attempting it and getting nowhere (from a herd immunity or economic perspective). It’s a pipe dream, a fantasy that’s not possible without a vaccine.

Restrictions, distancing, hand washing, masks, WFH etc along with lockdowns are the only show in town I’m afraid and the sooner some wake up to that the better.

Gas stuff altogether, marching them under a "work will set you free banner" are they Nox..you're the L Ron hubbard of this thread you know that. The only show in town is the gospel according to NOX, I'd tell you to get out more but even pre Covid I doubt you had any real purpose beyond your sticky laptop. This is something you're loving to espouse knowledge on while hopping from Wikipedia to boards. god bless you and all who sail in you.

RoryMac

charlie14 wrote: »

When you take into account their population their deaths are over 60% greater than ours. Their increase in new cases began a few weeks after they did here. Their weekly test numbers are are also lower, around 130,000 to our 100,000 (adjusting for population) 65 for every 100 here.
They were aiming for herd immunity, but their antibody test results were no better than Spain or France based on large scale surveys in both those countries.

Yes if you take their overall deaths they are significantly higher than ours but from my reading of the stats their deaths have been way down since the end of July and are pretty similar to ours for the last month or so.

charlie14

Penfailed wrote: »

Waiting patiently for Fintan to come along and say, "...but their population is 60% older than ours..." or something.

That would be very much like trying to convince people that one swallow makes a Summer.
It just does not hold water when the same comparison is made with any of the other Scandinavian countries.

walus

charlie14 wrote: »

When you take into account their population their deaths are over 60% greater than ours. Their increase in new cases began a few weeks after they did here. Their weekly test numbers are are also lower, around 130,000 to our 100,000 (adjusting for population) 65 for every 100 here.
They were aiming for herd immunity, but their antibody test results were no better than Spain or France based on large scale surveys in both those countries.

Charlie14, I don’t think that comparing the two countries on only selective metrics is meaningful. A much more broader view on public health in general would be a more appropriate – for example consider the total number of deaths directly from covid (much lower than the total number of deaths with covid) and take into account secondary deaths that occurred or will occur shortly (next 12-36 months) from lack of screening, treatments etc. I don’t think Ireland will look in any way favorably in this comparison. I’m leaving other socio-economic elements of such comparison out of this equation.



When it comes to herd immunity the percentage of population with antibodies may never reach above 15% anyway. That is the figure that is suggested by the German scientists as an evidence from their studies. Because of the fact the cv-19 is not the only corona virus that our immune systems have dealt with thus far, our immunity can be stemming from the T-cells.

charlie14

walus wrote: »

Charlie14, I don’t think that comparing the two countries on only selected metrics is meaningful. A much more broader view on public health in general would be a more appropriate – for example consider the total number of deaths directly from covid (much lower than the total number of deaths with covid) and take into account secondary deaths that occurred or will occur shortly (next 12-36 months) from lack of screening, treatments etc. I don’t think Ireland will look in any way favorably in this comparison. I’m leaving other socio-economic elements of such comparison out of this equation.



When it comes to herd immunity the percentage of population with antibodies may never reach above 15% anyway. That is the figure that is suggested by the German scientists as an evidence from their studies. Because of the fact the cv-19 is not the only corona virus that our immune systems have dealt with thus far, our immunity can be stemming from the T-cells.

Sweden take a long and extended Summer holiday break. Stockholm in particular gets much quieter with many moving out. Their numbers were down during that period buy once people started coming back their numbers rose. To me at least that would suggest the time lag compared to Ireland and others with the rise in new cases there.
Like everywhere else Covid-19 has not spread evenly nationally in Sweden. There have been epicenters and for Sweden there`s has been Stockholm.
In relation to what I have said, areas of Sweden that did not have high numbers previous to the Summer were the first to show sudden rises after the holiday period. I would not see it as just coincidence that these were regions where many from Stockholm spend their Summer holidays.


It is difficult to know from how countries classify and report deaths what the true numbers are for each. The one I have always found very strange for Sweden is that unless someone passes within 30 days of a positive test then the death is not classified as Covid-19. Even stranger to me is if a patient in intensive care passes more than 40 days after a positive test that death is not classified as Covid-19.


People make much of other health services being curtailed or cancelled during high peaks of this epidemic as if that was not what happened in Sweden. That is incorrect. Sweden did the same as everywhere else when the pressure came on their health services.
Many while talking about future problems in relation to such curtailing and cancelling also fail to take into account the ever increasing evidence of not just the short or medium term but the long term implications of catching this virus.


!5% acquired immunity that nobody knows how to test for or how long it lasts is really not much of and immunity shield imo.
Testing for T-cell acquired immunity seems to be even more of a mystery.The real research on T-cells in relation to providing immunity of some quantifiable level is into the activation of these cell by means of a vaccine.

charlie14

RoryMac wrote: »

Yes if you take their overall deaths they are significantly higher than ours but from my reading of the stats their deaths have been way down since the end of July and are pretty similar to ours for the last month or so.

Probably a bit rambling I admit, but much of what you have pointed out I think I have covered in my recent reply to a post by walrus.

Captain_Crash

charlie14 wrote: »

It is difficult to know from how countries classify and report deaths what the true numbers are for each. The one I have always found very strange for Sweden is that unless someone passes within 30 days of a positive test then the death is not classified as Covid-19. Even stranger to me is if a patient in intensive care passes more than 40 days after a positive test that death is not classified as Covid-19

My view is that this way of reporting makes sense, and I think this is becoming common place across many countries in Europe. Even the UK have started or plan on starting to report this way also, except the time frame from a test is to be 28 days and not 30.

But lets call a spade a spade here, if someone who tests positive from Covid dies over a month later, that death is not likely to be anything to do with Covid. There may be outliers of course, and just like the denotificaitons we see currently, they can be reclassed as covid down the line if necessary. I think this way of record keeping weeds out more incorrect reporting than it adds so is a good thing.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

walus wrote: »

Nox, you are not in a position to question my scientific knowledge. Period. You have shown time and time again a complete lack of understanding of cause-effect relationship, and repeatedly ignored evidence that is contrarian to your version of reality. That is a fact and has been pointed to you by a number of people here.



What I brought up here is an opinion of independent and respected scientific thinkers, who believe that herd immunity is a biological fact and a cornerstone of our species survival, and is a primary mechanism that will let us continue to do so in the future. They don’t suggest to let the virus run wild through the population. They suggest a thoughtful and targeted approach based on herd immunity and assistance of a vaccine if and when it becomes available. I believe that this was and still is the only viable way to deal with this “pandemic”. I suggest you listen to evidence before commenting and questioning ones knowledge or opinion.

Well, it’s true to say that implementation of a herd immunity programme can’t go ahead without a vaccine. It won’t just require the “assistance” of a vaccine. The only way it can happen is via a vaccine unless we just want an uncontrolled herd immunity experiment. Like you say, it will be highly controlled. But to do it, a vaccine is needed unfortunately.

seamusk84

What’s everyone’s opinion on when we will get back to level 2?

I mean we keep talking about moving to 4/5. But jeeze 3 is no walk in the park. All the restaurants closed for indoor dining and weather is crap this time of year for instance.

Hope we get back to 2 at some stage....

Plumbthedepths

seamusk84 wrote: »

What’s everyone’s opinion on when we will get back to level 2?

I mean we keep talking about moving to 4/5. But jeeze 3 is no walk in the park. All the restaurants closed for indoor dining and weather is crap this time of year for instance.

Hope we get back to 2 at some stage....

When the money starts running out.