Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

walus

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Well, it’s true to say that implementation of a herd immunity programme can’t go ahead without a vaccine. It won’t just require the “assistance” of a vaccine. The only way it can happen is via a vaccine unless we just want an uncontrolled herd immunity experiment. Like you say, it will be highly controlled. But to do it, a vaccine is needed unfortunately.

The herd immunity programme is already running, if you did not notice. The mother nature is doing its own thing as it has been for thousands of years. That is how we managed to survive to this day. Interfering with that could have disastrous consequences in the future. And vaccine can only be used to support it.

charlie14

Captain_Crash wrote: »

My view is that this way of reporting makes sense, and I think this is becoming common place across many countries in Europe. Even the UK have started or plan on starting to report this way also, except the time frame from a test is to be 28 days and not 30.

But lets call a spade a spade here, if someone who tests positive from Covid dies over a month later, that death is not likely to be anything to do with Covid. There may be outliers of course, and just like the denotificaitons we see currently, they can be reclassed as covid down the line if necessary. I think this way of record keeping weeds out more incorrect reporting than it adds so is a good thing.

Why would it be more likely than being due to Covid -19 after testing positive 30 days earlier, and especially why when it is someone who has who passes after being an ICU patient due to Covid-19 ?
To follow your point, then is it not the case that compared to others that use this system of reporting Covid-19 deaths, we have over reported ?


Btw. the fact that UK is now planning to down the same route would not, to me anyway, be a great argument as too its transparency.

political analyst

walus wrote: »

The herd immunity programme is already running, if you did not notice. The mother nature is doing its own thing as it has been for thousands of years. That is how we managed to survive to this day. Interfering with that could have disastrous consequences in the future. And vaccine can only be used to support it.

That's not what Tedros thinks. He said herd immunity has never been a strategy to deal with an outbreak, never mind a pandemic, in the history of public health.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54518286

bush

seamusk84 wrote: »

What’s everyone’s opinion on when we will get back to level 2?

I mean we keep talking about moving to 4/5. But jeeze 3 is no walk in the park. All the restaurants closed for indoor dining and weather is crap this time of year for instance.

Hope we get back to 2 at some stage....

I dont think it will be any time soon unfortunately :mad:

walus

walus wrote: »

The herd immunity programme is already running, if you did not notice. The mother nature is doing its own thing as it has been for thousands of years. That is how we managed to survive to this day. Interfering with that could have disastrous consequences in the future. And vaccine can only be used to support it.

Herd immunity is a hoax without a vaccine it shouldn't even be allowed to discuss it.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

When you take into account their population their deaths are over 60% greater than ours. Their increase in new cases began a few weeks after they did here. Their weekly test numbers are are also lower, around 130,000 to our 100,000 (adjusting for population) 65 for every 100 here.
They were aiming for herd immunity, but their antibody test results were no better than Spain or France based on large scale surveys in both those countries.

Charlie if I wanted a soldier to send into the trenches I’d send you, your blind dedication to the cause is nothing short of outstanding.

Whatever way you want to dress it up or run from the truth, this disease discriminately kills those over 65. To the tune of 94% of deaths in Ireland last I heard.

Ireland’s young population is a natural defence to a disease that is relatively harmless to young people.

The over 65 population is where the deaths occur.

Readjusted properly Sweden has approximately 3% more deaths

2m over 65 vs 640k over 65.

Ireland has a natural defence,yet its not going to win the “Irish pontificating Covid cup” certainly not with anyone who knows who this disease effects.

charlie14

walus wrote: »

The herd immunity programme is already running, if you did not notice. The mother nature is doing its own thing as it has been for thousands of years. That is how we managed to survive to this day. Interfering with that could have disastrous consequences in the future. And vaccine can only be used to support it.

Herd immunity to have an meaningful effect on controlling the spread of a virus has to be in the 60-80% range.

Nowhere have test results shown that level to be anywhere close. Even in countries that have been ravaged by this virus.
Manaus capital of the Brazilian state of Amazonas researchers published a paper that claimed based on test result the city had acquired 66% immunity.
Three days later restrictions were re-imposed due to the sudden rise in new cases.


Mother nature may in aeons to come develop immunity to this virus, but the plain and simple facts are there have been other virus around for that long that she did not develop herd immunity for that would still be rampant without vaccines.
I do not see any evidence, let alone credible evidence, that it is any different for this one

ShyMets

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Herd immunity is a hoax without a vaccine it should even be allowed to discuss it.

Congratulations to your promotion to a Moderator

Graces7

Andrewf20 wrote: »

The unfortunate reality is that every year we put lives at risk in the winter by spreading the flu. Just think of the milling around of people in shopping centres in the build up to Christmas and the family gatherings. This probably plays a big part in the spike in flu that occurs in January that ends up killing many people. 3 - 4000 people die in Ireland each year from respiratory illness.

320 - 650, 000 die from influenza each year worldwide.

Should we have lockdowns each year? Where do we draw the line?

Wearing masks in flu season is a good idea that would save lives.

Nit a lot to ask one would think. Just the right thing to do for folk ,

Widdensushi

Graces7 wrote: »

Wearing masks in flu season is a good idea that would save lives.

Nit a lot to ask one would think. Just the right thing to do for folk ,

Surely easier and more directed for those at risk to get a vaccination

Plumbthedepths

Graces7 wrote: »

Wearing masks in flu season is a good idea that would save lives.

Nit a lot to ask one would think. Just the right thing to do for folk ,

Banning cars would save lives too.

Captain_Crash

charlie14 wrote: »

To follow your point, then is it not the case that compared to others that use this system of reporting Covid-19 deaths, we have over reported ?

Ehhh, we have over reported... that’s never really been in doubt! Even NPHET have acknowledged as much!

FintanMcluskey

Penfailed wrote: »

Waiting patiently for Fintan to come along and say, "...but their population is 60% older than ours..." or something.

I will, because it’s completely relevant that they have a much older population than Ireland, especially so when discussing a disease that effects the elderly.

I still don’t understand your stance in all of this?

Is it just disagreeing for the sake of it?

polesheep

political analyst wrote: »

That's not what Tedros thinks. He said herd immunity has never been a strategy to deal with an outbreak, never mind a pandemic, in the history of public health.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54518286

That doesn't mean that it hasn't ever happened courtesy of nature.

PTH2009

Nphet meeting tomorrow which will no doubt inflict more restrictions and this time MM and Leo will go with it

facehugger99

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

When the money starts running out.

That's the laughable thing about it all.

We will eventually adopt a target approach of protecting the vulnerable while opening up the rest of the economy.

But the Government will be able to say 'well, we tried everything else first' - including pissing tens of billions of your taxes away to make things more politically palatable for ourselves

Graces7

Widdensushi wrote: »

Surely easier and more directed for those at risk to get a vaccination

Maskophobia?

Plumbthedepths

PTH2009 wrote: »

Nphet meeting tomorrow which will no doubt inflict more restrictions and this time MM and Leo will go with it

Other than throwing another 3/400,000 people onto the PUP scheme little to no restrictions left to deploy.

Plumbthedepths

Graces7 wrote: »

Maskophobia?

I doubt it, its more reasonable to expect someone to take care of their own safety ie get the flu vaccine instead of demanding others protect them.

mohawk

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

Herd immunity is a hoax without a vaccine it shouldn't even be allowed to discuss it.

Well nox we didn’t live in a dystopia where we are not allowed to discuss alternative strategies. Is a herd immunity approach the right one? Well that depends on what research and data says aka ecidence. We know there is a high cost to lockdowns so people are entitled to investigate and discuss alternatives. If the evidence against herd immunity is so strong what’s wrong with a discussion??

hynesie08

PTH2009 wrote: »

Nphet meeting tomorrow which will no doubt inflict more restrictions and this time MM and Leo will go with it

NPHET meet every Thursday.....

What more restrictions could there be?

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Charlie if I wanted a soldier to send into the trenches I’d send you, your blind dedication to the cause is nothing short of outstanding.

Whatever way you want to dress it up or run from the truth, this disease discriminately kills those over 65. To the tune of 94% of deaths in Ireland last I heard.

Ireland’s young population is a natural defence to a disease that is relatively harmless to young people.

The over 65 population is where the deaths occur.

Readjusted properly Sweden has approximately 3% more deaths

2m over 65 vs 640k over 65.

Ireland has a natural defence,yet its not going to win the “Irish pontificating Covid cup” certainly not with anyone who knows who this disease effects.

How many times do we have to do this dance Fintain.
The argument based on deaths for those 65 and over does not hold water.
These are the facts I showed you months ago in relation to Sweden Nordic neighbours based on your theory on Covid-19 deaths of those 65 and over.
I do not believe they have changed in any meaningful way since. Especially to validate your argument. The opposite if anything. But if you believe so, then work away and prove me wrong.


Population of Finland. 5.5M. 65 and over 22.14%. Total deaths 331.
If all deaths were those 65 and over that equates to 0.029%


Population of Denmark. 5.8M. 65 and over 19.81%. Total Deaths 617.
If all deaths were those 65 and over that equates to 0.058%


Population of Norway. 5.3M 65 and over 17.05% Total deaths 256.
If all deaths were those 65 and over that equates to 0.028%


Population of Sweden 10M. 65 and over 20%. When I first gave you these figure deaths of 65`s and over in Sweden were 5,503. That equates to 0.27%

charlie14

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Ehhh, we have over reported... that’s never really been in doubt! Even NPHET have acknowledged as much!

In which case does that not show that lockdown was even more effective if the real numbers are lower.

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

How many times do we have to do this dance Fintain.
The argument based on deaths for those 65 and over does not hold water.
These are the facts I showed you months ago in relation to Sweden Nordic neighbours based on your theory on Covid-19 deaths of those 65 and over.
I do not believe they have changed in any meaningful way since. Especially to validate your argument. The opposite if anything. But if you believe so, then work away and prove me wrong.


Population of Finland. 5.5M. 65 and over 22.14%. Total deaths 331.
If all deaths were those 65 and over that equates to 0.029%


Population of Denmark. 5.8M. 65 and over 19.81%. Total Deaths 617.
If all deaths were those 65 and over that equates to 0.058%


Population of Norway. 5.3M 65 and over 17.05% Total deaths 256.
If all deaths were those 65 and over that equates to 0.028%


Population of Sweden 10M. 65 and over 20%. When I first gave you these figure deaths of 65`s and over in Sweden were 5,503. That equates to 0.27%

I have no issue with the comparison to the other Nordic countries.

You had incorrectly suggested Sweden had a higher death rate in the vulnerable category than Ireland.

I called you out on that.

You have now however deflected again.

hynesie08

hynesie08 wrote: »

NPHET meet every Thursday.....

What more restrictions could there be?

There could be more restrictions from this evening on border counties it’s being discussed at cabinet afaik.

charlie14

Graces7 wrote: »

Wearing masks in flu season is a good idea that would save lives.

Nit a lot to ask one would think. Just the right thing to do for folk ,

Just read a report recently on figures for flu numbers in the Southern Hemisphere and numbers are away down compared to previous years.
Mask wearing was given as the primary reason.

hynesie08

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

There could be more restrictions from this evening on border counties it’s being discussed at cabinet afaik.

Such as????

FintanMcluskey

charlie14 wrote: »

Just read a report recently on figures for flu numbers in the Southern Hemisphere and numbers are away down compared to previous years.
Mask wearing was given as the primary reason.

Or is it that people vulnerable to respiratory illnesses are contracting an illness with a different name

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I have no issue with the comparison to the other Nordic countries.

You had incorrectly suggested Sweden had a higher death rate in the vulnerable category than Ireland.

I called you out on that.

You have now however deflected again.

No deflection whatsoever Fintain. Just proof that one swallow does not make a Summer.

I find this repeated attempt by you increasingly disingenuous and time wasting to portray the Swedish strategy you have backed from the start as being just down to a commonality on deaths of those aged 65 and over.
It`s is not, and the figures prove it.

charlie14

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Or is it that people vulnerable to respiratory illnesses are contracting an illness with a different name

If you mean Covid-19, I doubt if at this stage there are many in the medical profession in the Southern Hemisphere that can not recognise the difference.