Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

normanoffside

end of the road wrote: »

all of those should be done as a matter of course yes, but community transmission minimisation measures are the key to making all of that as effective as possible.

But We're 8 months in and they haven't been done.

Seweryn

Cyrus wrote: »

that type of reasoned post has no place here :pac::D

I know. I was just going to leave it here .

ShyMets

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ah lads this has to be a parody?

My detectors are off due to some of the stuff posted on Covid forum’s over the past few months

He's either Walter Mitty or Tony Holohan. The jury is still out. But my money is on Walter Mitty

FintanMcluskey

Seweryn wrote: »

Eh... no. Would that not be too logical ?

The worst pandemic since the deadly pandemic of 2018!

Ginger n Lemon

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The worst pandemic since the deadly pandemic of 2018!

This.

:D:D

normanoffside

average_runner wrote: »

Most nursing homes are private businesses. The good ones are testing every week.

THE HSE should be providing (at a minimum) weekly testing at all nursing homes, private or public.

They are not doing so presently.

Johnboy1951

@Seweryn ...... thanks for posting those numbers.

I have just watched this video which also deals with this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mboEkVl9ooc

Between the numbers posted and the interpretations in the video, there is only one conclusion to be drawn .........

charlie14

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

As you are so fond of that 3% I am sure you can post a link to your source for it.

What you do not seem to understand, despite supposedly having read the explanations by Johns Hopkins, is that a statistic such as CFR is an unsound one from which to draw any meaningful conclusions.
The same can be said of IFR statistics.

If 100% of the population was tested then we would have meaningful statistics, but still have to make allowances for false results from tests as well as double testing of a percentage of people.

The only meaningful statistic to me is that which shows the excess deaths, when compared to previous years, for each month of the year.
From that we would know the true number of deaths caused by the impact of Covid.

There would likely be a reduction in road deaths due to travel restrictions etc., probably an increase in deaths from untreated illnesses as well as the number of deaths due directly to Covid, with a reduction in deaths from other respiratory causes, because Covid got there first.
Of course we cannot gauge the number of deaths that lack of treatment will cause the likes of cancer patients and others. That will remain an unknown.

At the end of the day the best figure we can consider is excess deaths when compared to previous time periods.
That shows us how deadly Covid has been.

Are you on some kind of dedicated mission to waste as much of my time as you possibly can while at the same time not even understanding the most basic mathematics ?
You do not have to be a rocket scientists to do the calculations.
Nor do not need to wait a year to know what Covid-19 deaths or confirmed cases are. They are published daily.

Do you somehow believe that authorities, especially health authorities, just wait for a year, add up all the figures and then look at each other saying "so that`s what happened" and just repeat that year on year ignoring what they have learned.
Rather than using maybe and could be, they use the statistics.

If they are facing another wave then they know that in Ireland in the last wave 3% of confirmed cases died from Covid-19. From statistics they will also know from rising numbers the numbers of hospital beds they will require as well as ICU beds at any given time for Covid-19 patients.
They do not use guesswork. They use focused planning from what they have learned statistically to optimise their resources.

Penfailed

Penfailed wrote: »

Questions that Joe Public doesn't have the answers for. I do understand what you are implying.

Well, it's already been proven that Doctors and hospitals in the States were being incentivized to record deaths as Covid, regardless of whether Covid was the *actual* cause of death. So, if you went in after a terrible car accident, happened to catch Covid in there, then died... You were recorded as a Covid death. Apparently hospitals received more funding for those Covid cases/deaths. Very suspicious.

So, is this happening in Ireland? I don't know.

Theboinkmaster

Seweryn wrote: »

Eh... no. Would that not be too logical ?

Assume lockdowns impact this? less travel, people out and about therefore reduction in car crash deaths, work place accidents, assaults on nights out etc.

It is interesting though, thanks for data.

3xh

end of the road wrote: »

whatever the stat as to the amount of people who got covid while in hospital actually is, it is not the trump card you seem to think it is .
the fact is that there will still be those who got it outside hospital, and that community transmission hasn't gone away as it was never going to completely do so, all be it is lessened with our vital public health measures.
absolutely if people are getting covid while in hospital then that is a serious issue and must absolutely be dealt with, but it does not in any way negate the need for the restrictions out in the community.
by the way PPE does not remove the risk of catching covid, it just lessens it.

As a society under constant threat and daily reminder of lockdown, we have a right to know how much of the ‘hospitalisation’ figure is due to hospital acquisitions.

And of the daily death count, how many acquired it in hospital.

Those figures are being used against us to justify NPHET’s level system.

Put simply, we’re being asked to live with successive government’s/HSE/NPHET‘S failure to provide adequate health facilities, isolation suitable wards, etc.

As someone who’s on 40% pre-Covid salary, I’ve a right to question why those on 100% salary are trying to keep from this country how many people acquired it in hospital and how many deaths occurred to people who acquired it in hospital.

You write like you’ve skin in the game, tbh. No one with sense and ability to critically think (which you seem to be) can honestly support NPHET and co. based on their daily iterations.

Seweryn

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Assume lockdowns impact this? less travel, people out and about therefore reduction in car crash deaths, work place accidents, assaults on nights out etc..

Travel and work related deaths have tiny impact on the death statistics. Even if we remove all road deaths completely they would have about 0.5% impact.

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

It is interesting though, thanks for data.

No worries. Obviously the numbers will change slightly when the deaths update on continuous basis (the reason I did not put recent months to comparison to be fair), but it is not going to be revolutionary, but rather cosmetic change.

normanoffside

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, it's already been proven that Doctors and hospitals in the States were being incentivized to record deaths as Covid, regardless of whether Covid was the *actual* cause of death. So, if you went in after a terrible car accident, happened to catch Covid in there, then died... You were recorded as a Covid death. Apparently hospitals received more funding for those Covid cases/deaths. Very suspicious.

So, is this happening in Ireland? I don't know.

It's been stated on numerous occasions by Holohan, Varadkar et al. that all deaths with covid are recorded on our death toll, whether it was a major cause or not.
In fact they even record all deaths where they suspect they had covid even if they haven't been tested.

3xh

normanoffside wrote: »

It's been stated on numerous occasions by Holohan, Varadkar et al. that all deaths with covid are recorded on our death toll, whether it was a major cause or not.
In fact they even record all deaths where they suspect they had covid even if they haven't been tested.

Good point. And multiply that across all countries around the world and all of sudden, this worldwide pandemic takes on a whole different outlook.

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

It's been stated on numerous occasions by Holohan, Varadkar et al. that all deaths with covid are recorded on our death toll, whether it was a major cause or not.
In fact they even record all deaths where they suspect they had covid even if they haven't been tested.

Well that's not suspect at all then, is it. Why are they so keen to inflate the (very low) Covid death rate?

Johnboy1951

charlie14 wrote: »

Are you on some kind of dedicated mission to waste as much of my time as you possibly can while at the same time not even understanding the most basic mathematics ?
You do not have to be a rocket scientists to do the calculations.
Nor do not need to wait a year to know what Covid-19 deaths or confirmed cases are. They are published daily.

Do you somehow believe that authorities, especially health authorities, just wait for a year, add up all the figures and then look at each other saying "so that`s what happened" and just repeat that year on year ignoring what they have learned.
Rather than using maybe and could be, they use the statistics.

If they are facing another wave then they know that in Ireland in the last wave 3% of confirmed cases died from Covid-19. From statistics they will also know from rising numbers the numbers of hospital beds they will require as well as ICU beds at any given time for Covid-19 patients.
They do not use guesswork. They use focused planning from what they have learned statistically to optimise their resources.

Don't worry, I won't waste any more of my time trying to educate you.
Stick to your useless 3% as it makes you happy.

Johnboy1951

Deleted User wrote: »

Well that's not suspect at all then, is it. Why are they so keen to inflate the (very low) Covid death rate?

Good question ..... can you suggest an answer?

end of the road

3xh wrote: »

As a society under constant threat and daily reminder of lockdown, we have a right to know how much of the ‘hospitalisation’ figure is due to hospital acquisitions.

And of the daily death count, how many acquired it in hospital.

Those figures are being used against us to justify NPHET’s level system.

Put simply, we’re being asked to live with successive government’s/HSE/NPHET‘S failure to provide adequate health facilities, isolation suitable wards, etc.

As someone who’s on 40% pre-Covid salary, I’ve a right to question why those on 100% salary are trying to keep from this country how many people acquired it in hospital and how many deaths occurred to people who acquired it in hospital.

You write like you’ve skin in the game, tbh. No one with sense and ability to critically think (which you seem to be) can honestly support NPHET and co. based on their daily iterations.

i'm sure you can put in a FOI request to get the figures if you really want them, that is probably the best option available to you.
i would suspect that the figures aren't reported as they would be such a niche interest.
there would still be restrictions regardless of whether our health system was much better or not, as the system does need to remain protected from overload.
it is all of the information that is available to me that upholds my understanding for what nphet are trying to do in terms of managing our way through a very difficult situation, dispite the fact i don't like restrictions and lock down.

end of the road

Deleted User wrote: »

Hello.

I'm glad you're ok. Yes, I've noticed that everybody thinks you're posting absolute nonsense, and that NPHET are completely useless, not fit for purpose, and have questionable motivation/funding etc. Don't worry though, they'll come around.

Hang in there.

no no, you mean a small minority of people think such.
i would ask that you please do not speak for me.
thanks.

charlie14

Seweryn wrote: »

Travel and work related deaths have tiny impact on the death statistics. Even if we remove all road deaths completely they would have about 0.5% impact.


No worries. Obviously the numbers will change slightly when the deaths update on continuous basis (the reason I did not put recent months to comparison to be fair), but it is not going to be revolutionary, but rather cosmetic change.

Interesting point though the poster made on lockdown.
On the one country that did not use lockdown the deaths in 2020 per week compared to the average weekly deaths from 2015 to 2019 are from week 12, March 16th. to week 23, June 7th.


2015 - 2019 2020.
Week 12 : 261 - 266
Week 13 : 258 - 291
Week 14 : 259 - 340
Week 15 : 250 - 367
Week 16 : 250 - 361
Week 17 : 247 - 324
Week 18 : 237 - 320
Week 19 : 234 - 312
Week 20 : 229 - 284
Week 21 : 222 - 274
Week 22 : 224 - 237
Week 23 : 224 - 250

charlie14

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

Don't worry, I won't waste any more of my time trying to educate you.
Stick to your useless 3% as it makes you happy.

No problem.
As you do not appear to have even the basic understanding of mathematics, I would not know where to even begin attempting to educate you anyway.

Captain_Crash

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Assume lockdowns impact this? less travel, people out and about therefore reduction in car crash deaths, work place accidents, assaults on nights out etc.

It is interesting though, thanks for data.

While its correct that road deaths/murder/accidents are reduced due to the measures, they are only a small fraction of our annual death numbers to begin with, so wont really have an impact on the excess death rate, or lack thereof.

Johnboy1951

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

Good question ..... can you suggest an answer?

Well, if the same thing is evidently happening elsewhere, one could assume they're all going by the same script.

The UN has said (to paraphrase) "the biggest danger to health is those who refuse vaccinations". Well, the same people who are primary funders of the UN and WHO are also funders of the Pfizer/BioTech, AstraZeneca, and Moderna Covid vaccine candidates. These same financers have also created connected companies relating to digital ID's, health passports etc.

Therefor, following the money, my personal opinion is it's all to push towards increased security measures (and possibly mandatory vaccinations) next year and beyond. More "deaths" = more lockdowns = more desperation = people more willing to accept mandatory vaccines and new security measures in return for their old 'freedoms' back. There's astronomical money to be made here, with the added bonus of increased control.

Hope I'm wrong, but time will tell.

Seweryn

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

Good question ..... can you suggest an answer?

To keep the Project Fear going.

There is a lot of lying and deceiving going on. Politicians, reporters, TV presenters and scientists are lying, distorting and burying truths. They are suppressing vital information to which every citizen is entitled. Well, in theory...

They claim that Cov. is becoming a greater threat. So where’s the evidence? The death totals, the only figures which matter, have hardly risen. And they are using all sorts of trickery to make the figures look worse than they are. Anyone who tested positive for Cov. and then died within 28 days because they were in an aeroplane crash will have been listed as a Cov. death. And now they are listing as Cov. deaths anyone who doctors think might have had it. If a doctor suspects that a patient died of Cov. then that’s the cause of death, and the cash register of deaths pings up another sale.
There is no logic, no science to any of it any more.

The flu is, of course, killing far more people than Cov., and so the added figures will be a real bonus for the scaremongers. Since flu and pneumonia deaths are usually listed together, they will bung pneumonia deaths in with the Cov. deaths.

They might as well include some of the cancer and heart disease deaths as Cov. deaths.
Oh, no they can’t because they are already doing that. Anyone who died within 28 days of a positive test is listed as a Cov. death. The test they use is, of course, a test that was never designed for Cov. in the first place. And they are testing for a disease which is usually so insignificant that they have to give you a test to see if you had it. They don’t give you a test to see if you have had chickenpox. People know if they’ve had chickenpox. Think about it.

But the Cov. death total started in 2019 and it’s still rolling onwards. In another decade or so, Cov. will have killed millions.

And that, they will say will justify killing tens of millions through lockdowns, starvation and unemployment, destroying jobs, lives, hopes and dreams.

But the censors and the hackers don’t want you to know that the virus responsible for all this mayhem has allegedly never been isolated...

Stormyteacup

charlie14 wrote: »

Interesting point though the poster made on lockdown.
On the one country that did not use lockdown the deaths in 2020 per week compared to the average weekly deaths from 2015 to 2019 are from week 12, March 16th. to week 23, June 7th.


2015 - 2019 2020.
Week 12 : 261 - 266
Week 13 : 258 - 291
Week 14 : 259 - 340
Week 15 : 250 - 367
Week 16 : 250 - 361
Week 17 : 247 - 324
Week 18 : 237 - 320
Week 19 : 234 - 312
Week 20 : 229 - 284
Week 21 : 222 - 274
Week 22 : 224 - 237
Week 23 : 224 - 250

I don’t understand the point - you could do the same with data for this country - 1,000 excess deaths over March and April according to spreadsheet posted.

Seweryn

Deleted User wrote: »

Therefor, following the money, my personal opinion is it's all to push increased security measures (and possibly mandatory vaccinations) next year and beyond. More "deaths" = more lockdowns = more desperation = people more willing to accept mandatory vaccines and new security measures in return for their old 'freedoms' back. There's astronomical money to be made here, with the added bonus of increased control.

True, unfortunately.

The government and the health body can dictate the scenario very easily:
- increase the number of tests to justify the measures,
- increase the number of cycles in the test (that was never designed for Cov. remember) and therefore provide as many positive results as they like.

So they have a full control on the situation using their dirty tactics.

charlie14

Stormyteacup wrote: »

I don’t understand the point - you could do the same with data for this country - 1,000 excess deaths over March and April according to spreadsheet posted.

In relation to the -1.5% Jan -May in Ireland posted, I thought, especially when considering lockdown as opposed to no lockdown it was pretty self evident.

Stormyteacup

charlie14 wrote: »

In relation to the -1.5% Jan -May in Ireland posted, I thought, especially when considering lockdown as opposed to no lockdown it was pretty self evident.

Okay but why not compare with excess deaths in Ireland 16th March to June 7th?

3xh

end of the road wrote: »

i'm sure you can put in a FOI request to get the figures if you really want them, that is probably the best option available to you.
i would suspect that the figures aren't reported as they would be such a niche interest.
there would still be restrictions regardless of whether our health system was much better or not, as the system does need to remain protected from overload.
it is all of the information that is available to me that upholds my understanding for what nphet are trying to do in terms of managing our way through a very difficult situation, dispite the fact i don't like restrictions and lock down.

‘.....a niche interest’?? F me. Yes, people just want the RTE facts about cases, hospitalisations, ICU and deaths each day. Don’t mind the probing questions which link things the authorities don’t want us to hear.

Secondly, you’re right. Restrictions would still be as we’re seeing them right now even if I did find out the answers. My point is; why is that and who is responsible? Would you believe a thief that said he only stole XYZ or would you go check the whole house?

Your last paragraph is very very telling; basically, ‘going on the info I have to hand, I’m happy with NPHET’s performance. Until we see different, it’s best we row in behind them for the greater good’

You’re unbelievable. In my opinion, of course.

3xh

3xh wrote: »

‘.
Your last paragraph is very very telling; basically, ‘going on the info I have to hand, I’m happy with NPHET’s performance. Until we see different, it’s best we row in behind them for the greater good’

You’re unbelievable. In my opinion, of course.

He's a nice guy, but usually has a different opinion to everyone else, and sticks with it 'til the bitter end. I thought he was on the troll when I first joined, but he's not :pac: