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Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

  • 23-09-2020 7:06am
    #1
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,198 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    Well that was quick - the old thread snuck up to 10,000 posts in not much more than 12 days - figures we've not seen since April

    Previous threads:

    Thread I
    Thread II
    Thread III
    Thread IV
    Thread V
    Thread VI
    Thread VII
    Thread VIII
    Thread IX
    Thread X
    Thread XI
    Thread XII
    Thread XIII
    Thread XIV
    Thread XV
    Thread XVI
    Thread XVII
    Thread XVIII
    Thread XIX
    Thread XX
    Thread XXI
    Thread XXII
    Thread XXIII

    The daily numbers

    Mod warnings:
    1. Please interact in a civil manner
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    In terms of thread content:
    • Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
    • Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
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    And now a maths lesson:
    “Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
    Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
    Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
    Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
    Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Comments

  • Posts: 3,480 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/let-virus-spread-among-under-60s-dail-committee-to-hear-1018721.html

    "An adviser to the World Health Organisation says Ireland should allow Covid-19 to spread in a "controlled" way among people under 60.

    Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and a member of the WHO's strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards, will make the comments at the Oireachtas coronavirus committee on Wednesday morning."


    With the chances of a vaccine for early next year (or perhaps even ever) looking fanciful. Is this this what living with the disease looks like?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Where’s our little ditty, beasty?


  • Registered Users Posts: 31,581 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    ronoc wrote: »
    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/let-virus-spread-among-under-60s-dail-committee-to-hear-1018721.html

    "An adviser to the World Health Organisation says Ireland should allow Covid-19 to spread in a "controlled" way among people under 60.

    Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and a member of the WHO's strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards, will make the comments at the Oireachtas coronavirus committee on Wednesday morning."


    With the chances of a vaccine for early next year (or perhaps even ever) looking fanciful. Is this this what living with the disease looks like?
    Yeah, he also wrongly claimed we'd have a whole lot more deaths. Given his own age he's a big fan of the expediency of offing people. Personally find him borderline sociopathic, it seems to be a common trait amongst some epidemiologists.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭ Happydays2020


    @Mandrake04, I agree re. the consultation but I think this is part of the service for testing in the TMB. But perhaps I am wrong on that. https://www.tmb.ie/services/covid-19-travel-clearance-certificate


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,171 ✭✭✭ wadacrack


    ronoc wrote: »
    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/let-virus-spread-among-under-60s-dail-committee-to-hear-1018721.html

    "An adviser to the World Health Organisation says Ireland should allow Covid-19 to spread in a "controlled" way among people under 60.

    Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and a member of the WHO's strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards, will make the comments at the Oireachtas coronavirus committee on Wednesday morning."


    With the chances of a vaccine for early next year (or perhaps even ever) looking fanciful. Is this this what living with the disease looks like?

    Irresponsible advice considering their is great uncertainty surrounding immunity and "long covid" prevalence unknown. Anders Tegnell is talking about introducing local lockdowns in Stockholm. What we all learning is that letting the virus run through is not viable and restrictions of some sort are part of life until an effective vaccine is available.

    UK likely to have one out in 2021 hopefully it can help alot. The UK seem to be now going the Zero Covid route to save their economy. WE are likely to follow. European governments have been warning the public of the winter ahead in the last few days


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭ Funsterdelux


    Where’s our little ditty, beasty?

    Something like this Id say:

    Yo, I'll tell you what I want
    What I really, really want
    So tell me what you want
    What you really, really want

    I'll tell you what I want
    What I really, really want
    So tell me what you want
    What you really, really want

    I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha)
    I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha)
    I wanna really, really, really

    Wanna zigazig ah


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭ Blondini


    ronoc wrote: »
    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/let-virus-spread-among-under-60s-dail-committee-to-hear-1018721.html

    "An adviser to the World Health Organisation says Ireland should allow Covid-19 to spread in a "controlled" way among people under 60.

    Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and a member of the WHO's strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards, will make the comments at the Oireachtas coronavirus committee on Wednesday morning."


    With the chances of a vaccine for early next year (or perhaps even ever) looking fanciful. Is this this what living with the disease looks like?

    I'm sure the numerous medically vulnerable people aged under 60, who still need to work for a living, would be delighted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,788 ✭✭✭ raind


    Ok so you guys think a large proportion of our cases are false even though the assays and methods havent changed and are detecting the same virus, the same way it has from the start with over a 99% rate of detecting the virus when it is present.

    In follow up to Martina. For Test method validations in general, not PCR specifically, however the statisitcs hold true regardless, for a test where you return an attribute - Pass/ Fail, Detected / Not Detected or whatever else it may be, a test can only produce a confidence level on the accuracy of the result and not a 100% guarantee.

    If for example a lab took 500 known negative tests and found 0 Positives, you cannot state that the false positive rate is zero. Statistically you can only state with 95% confidence, that at least 99.4% of the time a negative sample will produce a negative result. True rate may actually be zero, but you can never achieve a 100% statistical guarantee

    This is how accuracy for test method validations work in Mechanical and Chemical test methods that I have worked with, and the same principle should apply to any test method.

    A specificity of 99% is not a statement that only 99% of negative samples will produce a negative result, its a statement that at least 99% of negative samples will produce a negative result


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,468 ✭✭✭✭ Eod100


    Not sure if this was posted in previous thread. Looks like we're almost getting to 100,000 capacity. https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1308487456321425409?s=19


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,706 ✭✭✭ CalamariFritti


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Irresponsible advice considering their is great uncertainty surrounding immunity and "long covid" prevalence unknown. Anders Tegnell is talking about introducing local lockdowns in Stockholm. What we all learning is that letting the virus run through is not viable and restrictions of some sort are part of life until an effective vaccine is available.

    UK likely to have one out in 2021 hopefully it can help alot. The UK seem to be now going the Zero Covid route to save their economy. WE are likely to follow. European governments have been warning the public of the winter ahead in the last few days

    And locking down every 3 months is viable?

    Vaccine is also immunity and if immunity doesnt work neither will a vaccine. What he recommends is the only solution available. Together with improving treatments we will have to absorb this virus into the annual cocktail.

    Zero covid will mean that we will live in fear of this thing shutting down our lives in a heartbeat forever and ever. Zero covid is also futile. The UK have been making the wrong call at every turn on this.

    Just my humble opinion.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,790 ✭✭✭✭ Boggles


    Everyone over 60 has to cocoon before we reach herd immunity?

    Sure that will work.

    :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,810 ✭✭✭ Hector Savage


    Blondini wrote: »
    I'm sure the numerous medically vulnerable people aged under 60, who still need to work for a living, would be delighted.

    Those people will be homeless and starving with no work, so maybe yeah they would actually be delighted that they can ****ing get on with life...


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,706 ✭✭✭ CalamariFritti


    Boggles wrote: »
    Everyone over 60 has to cocoon before we reach herd immunity?

    Sure that will work.

    :rolleyes:

    Not everyone over 60 is at risk. Once we have had full exposure we will learn that only a tiny fraction of people are gettin life threateningly sick from this. Hell we already learned this but we refuse to acknowledge it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,321 ✭✭✭ podgeandrodge


    RTE: "As the number of new Covid-19 cases continues to rise, the Acting Chief Medical Officer issued a specific appeal to teenagers and people in their 20s and 30s to adhere to the public health guidelines."

    Maybe the restrictions should be on age rather than location :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,498 ✭✭✭ SeaBreezes


    And locking down every 3 months is viable?

    Vaccine is also immunity and if immunity doesnt work neither will a vaccine. What he recommends is the only solution available. Together with improving treatments we will have to absorb this virus into the annual cocktail.

    Zero covid will mean that we will live in fear of this thing shutting down our lives in a heartbeat forever and ever. Zero covid is also futile. The UK have been making the wrong call at every turn on this.

    Just my humble opinion.

    All of china, NZ would disagree with you that its impossible to shutdown.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,790 ✭✭✭✭ Boggles


    Not everyone over 60 is at risk. Once we have had full exposure we will learn that only a tiny fraction of people are gettin life threateningly sick from this. Hell we already learned this but we refuse to acknowledge it.

    Really?

    What's the fraction?

    In actual numbers what will be the hospitalization and causality rate from a "controlled" spread and how long would it take?

    Ball park.


  • Registered Users Posts: 31,581 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    Not everyone over 60 is at risk. Once we have had full exposure we will learn that only a tiny fraction of people are gettin life threateningly sick from this. Hell we already learned this but we refuse to acknowledge it.
    In about 40 years!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭ beaz2018


    De Gascun saying more restrictions needed and no vaccine in 2021 (today's independent). We are in this misery for the very long haul unless someone gets a grip!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,171 ✭✭✭ wadacrack


    And locking down every 3 months is viable?

    Vaccine is also immunity and if immunity doesnt work neither will a vaccine. What he recommends is the only solution available. Together with improving treatments we will have to absorb this virus into the annual cocktail.

    Zero covid will mean that we will live in fear of this thing shutting down our lives in a heartbeat forever and ever. Zero covid is also futile. The UK have been making the wrong call at every turn on this.

    Just my humble opinion.

    When their is uncertainty surrounding immunity its more responsible that a vaccine can help suppress this rather than letting the virus run through a population which in unethical. Its why their are no studies where people are infected for the purpose of research.

    Well if its possible for to suppress to very low levels as has been proven. If their was an effective vaccine that may need to be taken yearly for lets say vulnerable people and rapid test results. I think its very plausible that the Zero Covid approach may be the way out of this. My own opinion is that this is how it is likely to go. Seems to be progress being made on both fronts.

    The alternative maybe that we have an endemic disease and run into problems every winter and need to shut down every few months. We would have no healthcare otherwise and deaths would be extremely high from all causes.

    Sweden have tried the approach of herd immunity and its nt gone well. They have far more data than any of us and even Tegnall has denied that was his approach. He realizes its not going to work the economy will potentially never recovery to anywhere near what it was. People need to look at the big picture and the long term effects of such decisions


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭ Happydays2020


    RTE: "As the number of new Covid-19 cases continues to rise, the Acting Chief Medical Officer issued a specific appeal to teenagers and people in their 20s and 30s to adhere to the public health guidelines."

    Maybe the restrictions should be on age rather than location :)

    Increase the drinking age to 40. Happy days.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,468 ✭✭✭✭ Eod100


    That guy is recommending herd immunity in another name. Worth revisiting WHO's Dr Mike Ryan's thoughts on that. The idea you can control virus among a certain age group is farcical for a highly infectious disease especially when people can and do live or care for relatives over 60 and/or with underlying conditions. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1260261130066432002?s=19


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,321 ✭✭✭ podgeandrodge


    The HPSC said "the outbreaks are associated with school children and or school staff" but it said the "transmission of Covid-19 within the school has not necessarily been established".


    It seems to be more with schools that they try harder to say it wasn't necessarily the cause. Don't hear them talk about a restaurant in those terms.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,727 ✭✭✭✭ Drumpot


    I think cheap home testing, with results in minutes is the best and quickest way to get back to “normality”. If we do this we can have it everywhere and you could even fly without having to believe the fairytale About filtration on planes that the airline industry is trying to peddle..

    Mass testing is the only Compromise I can think of to lockdowns in the absence of a vaccine. Either that or we figure out that the virus has much lower death rate and generally no long term effects.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭ beaz2018


    Eod100 wrote: »
    That guy is recommending herd immunity in another name. Worth revisiting WHO's Dr Mike Ryan's thoughts on that. The idea you can control virus among a certain age group is farcical for a highly infectious disease especially when people can and do live or care for relatives over 60 and/or with underlying conditions. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1260261130066432002?s=19

    That guy has just been hired by the WHO as a senior advisor.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,706 ✭✭✭ CalamariFritti


    is_that_so wrote: »
    In about 40 years!

    Thats nonsense. And even if it wasn't its still preferrable to infinity.

    As much as people are on about unethical the fact is - not just my opinion, fact - that this virus is out and will not be put back into its box. Every decision thereafter has to be driven by this.

    Edit: We gonna end up in this position one way or the other. Inevitably. The question is how much kicking and screaming we're willing to endure in the meantime.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,100 ✭✭✭ prunudo


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Not sure if this was posted in previous thread. Looks like we're almost getting to 100,000 capacity. https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1308487456321425409?s=19

    It doesn't prove that in the slightest, it proves that about 95k people had either symptoms similar to covid or had got notification of being in contact with a positive case.
    Just for clarity, I'm referring to Paul Reid's tweet, not having a go at yourself.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭ s1ippy


    Colm Henry said "more intensive care beds was not the solution to the spread of Covid-19 and that the State should not rely on beds “as a line of defence”."

    I assume because he's a blue-sky thinker who has other big plans in relation to the increase in demand for beds that we're currently seeing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 31,581 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    Drumpot wrote: »
    I think cheap home testing, with results in minutes is the best and quickest way to get back to “normality”. If we do this we can have it everywhere and you could even fly without having to believe the fairytale About filtration on planes that the airline industry is trying to peddle..

    Mass testing is the only Compromise I can think of to lockdowns in the absence of a vaccine. Either that or we figure out that the virus has much lower death rate and generally no long term effects.
    Still no sign of any reliable tests on that front, despite regular "game changing" headlines on new tests. Hopefully, we'll get one for Christmas!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,900 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    Are you able to get a test (antibody test?) to see if you’ve had Covid?
    Is this service available in Ireland?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 31,581 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    s1ippy wrote: »
    Colm Henry said "more intensive care beds was not the solution to the spread of Covid-19 and that the State should not rely on beds “as a line of defence”."

    I assume because he's a blue-sky thinker who has other big plans in relation to the increase in demand for beds that we're currently seeing.
    Not getting them into hospitals in the first place would be my read on that. There's quite a cost as well to a massive expansion and it takes people away from normal health service activities.


This discussion has been closed.
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