Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

Beasty

Well that was quick - the old thread snuck up to 10,000 posts in not much more than 12 days - figures we've not seen since April

Previous threads:

Thread I
Thread II
Thread III
Thread IV
Thread V
Thread VI
Thread VII
Thread VIII
Thread IX
Thread X
Thread XI
Thread XII
Thread XIII
Thread XIV
Thread XV
Thread XVI
Thread XVII
Thread XVIII
Thread XIX
Thread XX
Thread XXI
Thread XXII
Thread XXIII

The daily numbers

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And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/let-virus-spread-among-under-60s-dail-committee-to-hear-1018721.html

"An adviser to the World Health Organisation says Ireland should allow Covid-19 to spread in a "controlled" way among people under 60.

Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and a member of the WHO's strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards, will make the comments at the Oireachtas coronavirus committee on Wednesday morning."

With the chances of a vaccine for early next year (or perhaps even ever) looking fanciful. Is this this what living with the disease looks like?

Where’s our little ditty, beasty?

is_that_so

ronoc wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/let-virus-spread-among-under-60s-dail-committee-to-hear-1018721.html

"An adviser to the World Health Organisation says Ireland should allow Covid-19 to spread in a "controlled" way among people under 60.

Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and a member of the WHO's strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards, will make the comments at the Oireachtas coronavirus committee on Wednesday morning."

With the chances of a vaccine for early next year (or perhaps even ever) looking fanciful. Is this this what living with the disease looks like?

Yeah, he also wrongly claimed we'd have a whole lot more deaths. Given his own age he's a big fan of the expediency of offing people. Personally find him borderline sociopathic, it seems to be a common trait amongst some epidemiologists.

Happydays2020

@Mandrake04, I agree re. the consultation but I think this is part of the service for testing in the TMB. But perhaps I am wrong on that. https://www.tmb.ie/services/covid-19-travel-clearance-certificate

wadacrack

ronoc wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/let-virus-spread-among-under-60s-dail-committee-to-hear-1018721.html

"An adviser to the World Health Organisation says Ireland should allow Covid-19 to spread in a "controlled" way among people under 60.

Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and a member of the WHO's strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards, will make the comments at the Oireachtas coronavirus committee on Wednesday morning."

With the chances of a vaccine for early next year (or perhaps even ever) looking fanciful. Is this this what living with the disease looks like?

Irresponsible advice considering their is great uncertainty surrounding immunity and "long covid" prevalence unknown. Anders Tegnell is talking about introducing local lockdowns in Stockholm. What we all learning is that letting the virus run through is not viable and restrictions of some sort are part of life until an effective vaccine is available.

UK likely to have one out in 2021 hopefully it can help alot. The UK seem to be now going the Zero Covid route to save their economy. WE are likely to follow. European governments have been warning the public of the winter ahead in the last few days

Funsterdelux

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Where’s our little ditty, beasty?

Something like this Id say:

Yo, I'll tell you what I want
What I really, really want
So tell me what you want
What you really, really want

I'll tell you what I want
What I really, really want
So tell me what you want
What you really, really want

I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha)
I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha)
I wanna really, really, really

Wanna zigazig ah

Blondini

ronoc wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/let-virus-spread-among-under-60s-dail-committee-to-hear-1018721.html

"An adviser to the World Health Organisation says Ireland should allow Covid-19 to spread in a "controlled" way among people under 60.

Johan Giesecke, Sweden's former chief epidemiologist and a member of the WHO's strategic and technical advisory group for infectious hazards, will make the comments at the Oireachtas coronavirus committee on Wednesday morning."

With the chances of a vaccine for early next year (or perhaps even ever) looking fanciful. Is this this what living with the disease looks like?

I'm sure the numerous medically vulnerable people aged under 60, who still need to work for a living, would be delighted.

Martina1991

Martina1991 wrote: »

Ok so you guys think a large proportion of our cases are false even though the assays and methods havent changed and are detecting the same virus, the same way it has from the start with over a 99% rate of detecting the virus when it is present.

In follow up to Martina. For Test method validations in general, not PCR specifically, however the statisitcs hold true regardless, for a test where you return an attribute - Pass/ Fail, Detected / Not Detected or whatever else it may be, a test can only produce a confidence level on the accuracy of the result and not a 100% guarantee.

If for example a lab took 500 known negative tests and found 0 Positives, you cannot state that the false positive rate is zero. Statistically you can only state with 95% confidence, that at least 99.4% of the time a negative sample will produce a negative result. True rate may actually be zero, but you can never achieve a 100% statistical guarantee

This is how accuracy for test method validations work in Mechanical and Chemical test methods that I have worked with, and the same principle should apply to any test method.

A specificity of 99% is not a statement that only 99% of negative samples will produce a negative result, its a statement that at least 99% of negative samples will produce a negative result

Eod100

Not sure if this was posted in previous thread. Looks like we're almost getting to 100,000 capacity. https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1308487456321425409?s=19

CalamariFritti

wadacrack wrote: »

Irresponsible advice considering their is great uncertainty surrounding immunity and "long covid" prevalence unknown. Anders Tegnell is talking about introducing local lockdowns in Stockholm. What we all learning is that letting the virus run through is not viable and restrictions of some sort are part of life until an effective vaccine is available.

UK likely to have one out in 2021 hopefully it can help alot. The UK seem to be now going the Zero Covid route to save their economy. WE are likely to follow. European governments have been warning the public of the winter ahead in the last few days

And locking down every 3 months is viable?

Vaccine is also immunity and if immunity doesnt work neither will a vaccine. What he recommends is the only solution available. Together with improving treatments we will have to absorb this virus into the annual cocktail.

Zero covid will mean that we will live in fear of this thing shutting down our lives in a heartbeat forever and ever. Zero covid is also futile. The UK have been making the wrong call at every turn on this.

Just my humble opinion.

Boggles

Everyone over 60 has to cocoon before we reach herd immunity?

Sure that will work.

:rolleyes:

Hector Savage

Blondini wrote: »

I'm sure the numerous medically vulnerable people aged under 60, who still need to work for a living, would be delighted.

Those people will be homeless and starving with no work, so maybe yeah they would actually be delighted that they can ****ing get on with life...

CalamariFritti

Boggles wrote: »

Everyone over 60 has to cocoon before we reach herd immunity?

Sure that will work.

:rolleyes:

Not everyone over 60 is at risk. Once we have had full exposure we will learn that only a tiny fraction of people are gettin life threateningly sick from this. Hell we already learned this but we refuse to acknowledge it.

podgeandrodge

RTE: "As the number of new Covid-19 cases continues to rise, the Acting Chief Medical Officer issued a specific appeal to teenagers and people in their 20s and 30s to adhere to the public health guidelines."

Maybe the restrictions should be on age rather than location

SeaBreezes

CalamariFritti wrote: »

And locking down every 3 months is viable?

Vaccine is also immunity and if immunity doesnt work neither will a vaccine. What he recommends is the only solution available. Together with improving treatments we will have to absorb this virus into the annual cocktail.

Zero covid will mean that we will live in fear of this thing shutting down our lives in a heartbeat forever and ever. Zero covid is also futile. The UK have been making the wrong call at every turn on this.

Just my humble opinion.

All of china, NZ would disagree with you that its impossible to shutdown.

Boggles

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Not everyone over 60 is at risk. Once we have had full exposure we will learn that only a tiny fraction of people are gettin life threateningly sick from this. Hell we already learned this but we refuse to acknowledge it.

Really?

What's the fraction?

In actual numbers what will be the hospitalization and causality rate from a "controlled" spread and how long would it take?

Ball park.

is_that_so

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Not everyone over 60 is at risk. Once we have had full exposure we will learn that only a tiny fraction of people are gettin life threateningly sick from this. Hell we already learned this but we refuse to acknowledge it.

In about 40 years!

beaz2018

De Gascun saying more restrictions needed and no vaccine in 2021 (today's independent). We are in this misery for the very long haul unless someone gets a grip!

wadacrack

CalamariFritti wrote: »

And locking down every 3 months is viable?

Vaccine is also immunity and if immunity doesnt work neither will a vaccine. What he recommends is the only solution available. Together with improving treatments we will have to absorb this virus into the annual cocktail.

Zero covid will mean that we will live in fear of this thing shutting down our lives in a heartbeat forever and ever. Zero covid is also futile. The UK have been making the wrong call at every turn on this.

Just my humble opinion.

When their is uncertainty surrounding immunity its more responsible that a vaccine can help suppress this rather than letting the virus run through a population which in unethical. Its why their are no studies where people are infected for the purpose of research.

Well if its possible for to suppress to very low levels as has been proven. If their was an effective vaccine that may need to be taken yearly for lets say vulnerable people and rapid test results. I think its very plausible that the Zero Covid approach may be the way out of this. My own opinion is that this is how it is likely to go. Seems to be progress being made on both fronts.

The alternative maybe that we have an endemic disease and run into problems every winter and need to shut down every few months. We would have no healthcare otherwise and deaths would be extremely high from all causes.

Sweden have tried the approach of herd immunity and its nt gone well. They have far more data than any of us and even Tegnall has denied that was his approach. He realizes its not going to work the economy will potentially never recovery to anywhere near what it was. People need to look at the big picture and the long term effects of such decisions

Happydays2020

podgeandrodge wrote: »

RTE: "As the number of new Covid-19 cases continues to rise, the Acting Chief Medical Officer issued a specific appeal to teenagers and people in their 20s and 30s to adhere to the public health guidelines."

Maybe the restrictions should be on age rather than location

Increase the drinking age to 40. Happy days.

Eod100

That guy is recommending herd immunity in another name. Worth revisiting WHO's Dr Mike Ryan's thoughts on that. The idea you can control virus among a certain age group is farcical for a highly infectious disease especially when people can and do live or care for relatives over 60 and/or with underlying conditions. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1260261130066432002?s=19

podgeandrodge

The HPSC said "the outbreaks are associated with school children and or school staff" but it said the "transmission of Covid-19 within the school has not necessarily been established".


It seems to be more with schools that they try harder to say it wasn't necessarily the cause. Don't hear them talk about a restaurant in those terms.

Drumpot

I think cheap home testing, with results in minutes is the best and quickest way to get back to “normality”. If we do this we can have it everywhere and you could even fly without having to believe the fairytale About filtration on planes that the airline industry is trying to peddle..

Mass testing is the only Compromise I can think of to lockdowns in the absence of a vaccine. Either that or we figure out that the virus has much lower death rate and generally no long term effects.

beaz2018

Eod100 wrote: »

That guy is recommending herd immunity in another name. Worth revisiting WHO's Dr Mike Ryan's thoughts on that. The idea you can control virus among a certain age group is farcical for a highly infectious disease especially when people can and do live or care for relatives over 60 and/or with underlying conditions. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1260261130066432002?s=19

That guy has just been hired by the WHO as a senior advisor.

CalamariFritti

is_that_so wrote: »

In about 40 years!

Thats nonsense. And even if it wasn't its still preferrable to infinity.

As much as people are on about unethical the fact is - not just my opinion, fact - that this virus is out and will not be put back into its box. Every decision thereafter has to be driven by this.

Edit: We gonna end up in this position one way or the other. Inevitably. The question is how much kicking and screaming we're willing to endure in the meantime.

prunudo

Eod100 wrote: »

Not sure if this was posted in previous thread. Looks like we're almost getting to 100,000 capacity. https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1308487456321425409?s=19

It doesn't prove that in the slightest, it proves that about 95k people had either symptoms similar to covid or had got notification of being in contact with a positive case.
Just for clarity, I'm referring to Paul Reid's tweet, not having a go at yourself.

s1ippy

Colm Henry said "more intensive care beds was not the solution to the spread of Covid-19 and that the State should not rely on beds “as a line of defence”."

I assume because he's a blue-sky thinker who has other big plans in relation to the increase in demand for beds that we're currently seeing.

is_that_so

Drumpot wrote: »

I think cheap home testing, with results in minutes is the best and quickest way to get back to “normality”. If we do this we can have it everywhere and you could even fly without having to believe the fairytale About filtration on planes that the airline industry is trying to peddle..

Mass testing is the only Compromise I can think of to lockdowns in the absence of a vaccine. Either that or we figure out that the virus has much lower death rate and generally no long term effects.

Still no sign of any reliable tests on that front, despite regular "game changing" headlines on new tests. Hopefully, we'll get one for Christmas!

tom1ie

Are you able to get a test (antibody test?) to see if you’ve had Covid?
Is this service available in Ireland?

is_that_so

s1ippy wrote: »

Colm Henry said "more intensive care beds was not the solution to the spread of Covid-19 and that the State should not rely on beds “as a line of defence”."

I assume because he's a blue-sky thinker who has other big plans in relation to the increase in demand for beds that we're currently seeing.

Not getting them into hospitals in the first place would be my read on that. There's quite a cost as well to a massive expansion and it takes people away from normal health service activities.

Drumpot

tom1ie wrote: »

Are you able to get a test (antibody test?) to see if you’ve had Covid?
Is this service available in Ireland?

I know a health and safety manager who got his hands on some for staff. He tested himself and it showed he had the virus at some stage. Back in March he was very sick and got tested and he tested negative back then.

CalamariFritti

Boggles wrote: »

Really?

What's the fraction?

In actual numbers what will be the hospitalization and causality rate from a "controlled" spread and how long would it take?

Ball park.

How would I know? I'd wager however it'll be in the same ball park as the flu. A handful for every 10,000.

tom1ie

Drumpot wrote: »

I know a health and safety manager who got his hands on some for staff.

He tested himself and it showed he had the virus. Back in March he was very sick and got tested and he tested negative back then.

Where can you get that type of test? Is it expensive?
How reliable are the results?

CalamariFritti

tom1ie wrote: »

Are you able to get a test (antibody test?) to see if you’ve had Covid?
Is this service available in Ireland?

It is, was going to get one myself, but unfortunately they seem highly inaccurate. Might as well flip a coin.

s1ippy

is_that_so wrote: »

Not getting them into hospitals in the first place would be my read on that. There's quite a cost as well to a massive expansion and it takes people away from normal health service activities.

The direction this is taking indicates that it may already be too late to row back and aim to not overwhelm hospitals. The action needs to be taken before we're halfway there.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/coronavirus-vaccine-15-billion-doses-needed-to-inoculate-the-planet-1.4361794
This 16m figure seems wrong to me. If you remove China and Russia (as they claim to already have their own vaccines) it would be closer to 10bn needed. This winter is the least of our worries in the scheme of things if the vaccine proves ineffective or impossible.

wadacrack

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Thats nonsense. And even if it wasn't its still preferrable to infinity.

As much as people are on about unethical the fact is - not just my opinion, fact - that this virus is out and will not be put back into its box. Every decision thereafter has to be driven by this.

Edit: We gonna end up in this position one way or the other. Inevitably. The question is how much kicking and screaming we're willing to endure in the meantime.

Ebola, influenza, Hib, swine flu, rubella, mumps, hepatitis A+B, yellow fever, rabies were all vaccinated and under control. SARS & MERS (both coronavirus') & Nipah eliminated, herd immunity was NOT an option for any of those virus's . Herd immunity a concept people like to think will work, rarely works with viruses in real life.Immune response can vary among the population. The Ro is currently about 1.5 in Europe.

If its kept below 1 for a prolonged period then an elimination strategy can become a viable option. With NPI this was done so with a vaccine and more effective testing and tracing then it becomes a viable option. If a vaccine is highly effective and keep the Ro below 1 then normal life can resume.

Drumpot

tom1ie wrote: »

Where can you get that type of test? Is it expensive?
How reliable are the results?

That I don’t know, I’ve looked online and haven’t been able to get a reliable alternative.

Hector Savage

SeaBreezes wrote: »

All of china, NZ would disagree with you that its impossible to shutdown.

China we can't trust.

NZ and Australia will have more spikes, all they are doing is delaying this, zero covid is a nonsense strategy.

We will see as they enter their summer how hard it is to lock down the residents.
Dictator Ardhern will have a tough time.

stephenjmcd

beaz2018 wrote: »

De Gascun saying more restrictions needed and no vaccine in 2021 (today's independent). We are in this misery for the very long haul unless someone gets a grip!

No what he said was a vaccine may not come, he never said no vaccine. I'll quote it,

"It may not happen and it certainly may not happen in the next six to 12 months,"

Thats none committal either way.

Those involved in vaccine development would disagree with him though.

is_that_so

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No what he said was a vaccine may not come, he never said no vaccine.

Those involved in vaccine development would disagree with him though.

It's managing expectations and most efforts of late have been about pushing us to follow the standard advice.

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

It's managing expectations and most of recent efforts of late have been about pushing us to follow the standard advice.

Exactly. By being non committal either way there is no expectations and if a vaccine is developed and distributed beginning say Q1 2021 they can say this is great we'll start to roll out to population but currently they won't commit to say Q1 or any other date.

If one isn't developed then its well we flagged this back in September and told you all to follow the guidelines

Roger_007

wadacrack wrote: »

Ebola, influenza, Hib, swine flu, rubella, mumps, hepatitis A+B, yellow fever, rabies were all vaccinated and under control. SARS & MERS (both coronavirus') & Nipah eliminated, herd immunity was NOT an option for any of those virus's . Herd immunity a concept people like to think will work, rarely works with viruses in real life.Immune response can vary among the population. The Ro is currently about 1.5 in Europe.

If its kept below 1 for a prolonged period then an elimination strategy can become a viable option. With NPI this was done so with a vaccine and more effective testing and tracing then it becomes a viable option. If a vaccine is highly effective and keep the Ro below 1 then normal life can resume.

When was MERS eliminated? As far as I’m aware it’s still circulating in Saudi, although at a low level and no vaccine exists for it!

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

The HPSC said "the outbreaks are associated with school children and or school staff" but it said the "transmission of Covid-19 within the school has not necessarily been established".


It seems to be more with schools that they try harder to say it wasn't necessarily the cause. Don't hear them talk about a restaurant in those terms.

Because they know it will engender hysteria

CalamariFritti

wadacrack wrote: »

Ebola, influenza, Hib, swine flu, rubella, mumps, hepatitis A+B, yellow fever, rabies were all vaccinated and under control. SARS & MERS (both coronavirus') & Nipah eliminated, herd immunity was NOT an option for any of those virus's . Herd immunity a concept people like to think will work, rarely works with viruses in real life.Immune response can vary among the population. The Ro is currently about 1.5 in Europe.

If its kept below 1 for a prolonged period then an elimination strategy can become a viable option. With NPI this was done so with a vaccine and more effective testing and tracing then it becomes a viable option. If a vaccine is highly effective and keep the Ro below 1 then normal life can resume.

I agree that this is true. But every virus has different parameters in terms of infectiousness and severity. Which makes some viruses more 'successful' than others. The high infectiousness and low fatality of cov2 makes it very hard to contain I understand. Something the WHO has acknowledged from day 1.

The question really is how long are we prepared to live in lockdown limbo when its not that dangerous to the vast vast majority of people?

Even a vaccine solution is basically artificially induced immunity. While there is no vaccine in sight we might as well make steps towards immunity in a controlled and natural fashion rather than be treading water and have lockdown hanging over us.

beaz2018

beaz2018 wrote: »

De Gascun saying more restrictions needed and no vaccine in 2021 (today's independent). We are in this misery for the very long haul unless someone gets a grip!

If they don't envisage a vacccine in 2021 then these restrictions are a farce. That would mean NPHET are expecting to implement restrictions for 21+ months. That would utterly destroy the country.

Hector Savage

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No what he said was a vaccine may not come, he never said no vaccine. I'll quote it,

"It may not happen and it certainly may not happen in the next six to 12 months,"

Thats none committal either way.

Those involved in vaccine development would disagree with him though.

Well at least finally they've reduced the timeline, it was getting tedious 12-18 months ... for the last 8 months ....

prunudo

McConkey getting his doom and gloom oar in. Wants us in level 5 from the clip I heard this morning.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/highest-restricion-levels-needed-1080153

Roger_007

prunudo wrote: »

McConkey getting his doom and gloom oar in. Wants us in level 5 from the clip I heard this morning.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/highest-restricion-levels-needed-1080153

McConkey is enjoying his celebrity status a wee bit too much.:rolleyes:

Boggles

CalamariFritti wrote: »

How would I know? I'd wager however it'll be in the same ball park as the flu. A handful for every 10,000.

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Not everyone over 60 is at risk. Once we have had full exposure we will learn that only a tiny fraction of people are gettin life threateningly sick from this. Hell we already learned this but we refuse to acknowledge it.

Because you said you know.

It's the problem with people advocating the herd immunity "strategy", when they are asked the most simplistic questions about the negative effects of such a strategy you get radio silence.

Or they become belligerent and just bizarrely shout "What would James Joyce think?" into a web cam.

Now to be fair she was quite clearly wankered off her face on some substance.

She reminded me of Uncle Monty from Withnail & I.

Jimi H

I’m pretty sure there are probably high levels of discontent in every jurisdiction no matter what approach their government is taking. I had been hopeful of a vaccine in the first half of next year but that seems unlikely now (or does it?). Hard to see how we can afford to continually lock down areas over a long period or how to keep the public on board. On the other hand, the ability or inability of our health services to cope with the oncoming winter even without Covid is very worrying.

Maybe there is scope to retrain or redeploy people whose jobs won’t survive to work in construction, forestry, renewables, testing and tracing etc. Very difficult to get a good balance but we probably need a solution between the two extremes.