Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

Boggles

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

In a ten minute slot, being interrupted by Miriam? How long do you think is needed to propose a theory without interruption?

I would suggest if there was time constraints don't waste any by whittling on about James Joyce.

Listen I'm not basing my opinion on the lady by one interview, all though it was an absolute car crash, I have read enough of her ramblings, she is an absolute cabbage.

Hawthorn Tree

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Is there a website that shows new coronavirus cases per county?

https://mobile.twitter.com/thepmanofficial?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

This lad has posted county numbers for months. Might be of help.

robbiezero

hynesie08 wrote: »

I wouldn't waste the ten minutes, you had one lunatic ****ing on about 100s of children dieing and a death rate 10x the flu, and another lunatic ****ing on about James Joyce. Your time would be better spent headbutting a wall.

This.
She was a bit mad but he was useless. Looked in shock that he wasnt getting his customary rimming interview.

OwenM

Boggles wrote: »

She wasn't, she was argumentative and belligerent and offered no evidence to support any of her "theories".

Maybe that's because she is an epidemiologist debating epidemiology with a neuroscientist, a bit like an electrician debating house wiring with a plumber.

From wikipedia:

"wrote her PhD thesis on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. She is currently a professor of theoretical epidemiology in the Department of Zoology at the University of Oxford, where she leads a team of infectious disease epidemiologists. She has done research on various infectious diseases, including malaria, HIV, influenza, bacterial meningitis and COVID-19"

CalamariFritti

Boggles wrote: »

I'm not. My point is if we tested no one, a substantial amount of the population would still need hospitalization, that would overwhelm the hospitals.

Yes, I'm in agreement with that. We can't take our eye off the ball.

Absolute numbers will increase. The more it spreads the more people will require hospitalisations (for a time). And we can't let it go beyond the point where we get overwhelmed. I will not dispute that. I am not advocating to let people just die so that the rest can get on with it.

But the more we learn about the true spread the percentages will go down. When we thought in March 15% needed hospitalisation it was based on the little testing we did. Now with increased testing we see its down to small single figures. As we learn more this percentage will decrease further.

Once we have near full picture the rates will be down to to other comparable diseases. The indicators for that are there.

What I'm also saying is that a sufficient saturation in the population will also stop the spread and thereby will also stop or drastically reduce the risk for the small group of vulnerable people. Trying to suppress to lowest possible numbers is actually preventing that from happening.

Longing

Zebra3 wrote: »

How is that anyway normal?

Wrong word yes. Not Normal. But I was trying to emphasize the sudden drop in cases in Spain that people were saying its there measures put in place. No it wasn't it was to early to see them yet. Thats all.

DangerScouse

DangerScouse wrote: »

I thinking the RTE player may have it.

Got it - no one won that debate. The Oxford professor seemed to have a better understanding of the studies however her points seemed muddled at times. Ryan seemed to be much more worried about keeping on zero covid type message, that he seemed not to have a grasp of facts. Its the nature of how we try to communicate messages to the public in Ireland - dumb it down so the public can understand, however this results in a reluctance to use more complex information to back up a point and therefore results in the perception that the speaker doesn't have the facts. That debate as done nothing to change my view that the true picture and best strategy lies somewhere between that proposed by Ryan and Gupta

Plumbthedepths

Boggles wrote: »

I would suggest if there was time constraints don't waste any by whittling on about James Joyce.

Listen I'm not basing my opinion on the lady by one interview, all though it was an absolute car crash, I have read enough of her ramblings, she is an absolute cabbage.

An absolute cabbage lol, who is a Professor of Epidemiology in Oxford.
I'm sure your qualifications allow you to pronounce she's a 'cabbage'. I won't ask for your CV as I'm sure it's impressive.
Thanks for the laugh.
We are so lucky with so many highly qualified experts taking time out of their busy days to offer expert opinion on educational qualifications of various other experts.

OwenM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

In a ten minute slot, being interrupted by Miriam? How long do you think is needed to propose a theory without interruption?
As pointed out by Raind bias forms opinion.
Did you feel Ryan offered evidence for his claim of the deaths of hundreds of children?

Zero-Covid proponents are insane, it's simply not going to work, even if we didn't have the ROI/NI border to contend with Covid is endemic, even IF a vaccine arrives Covid will still exist.

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Got it - no one won that debate. The Oxford professor seemed to have a better understanding of the studies however her points seemed muddled at times. Ryan seemed to be much more worried about keeping on zero covid type message, that he seemed not to have a grasp of facts. Its the nature of how we try to communicate messages to the public in Ireland - dumb it down so the public can understand, however this results in a reluctance to use more complex information to back up a point and therefore results in the perception that the speaker doesn't have the facts. That debate as done nothing to change my view that the true picture and best strategy lies somewhere between that proposed by Ryan and Gupta

Reasoned response.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1308583765095125000?s=20

Rent a child to the vulnerable?

Assetbacked

OwenM wrote: »

Zero-Covid proponents are insane, it's simply not going to work, even if we didn't have the ROI/NI border to contend with Covid is endemic, even IF a vaccine arrives Covid will still exist.

Any expert that has banged the drum of no COVID (ie McConkey, Scally, Ryan, Mills etc.) should not be followed as they have this as their dogma. Literally, to them, nothing else is worth doing. Therefore, any news article which quotes them is necessarily to be discounted. I mean, not even worth reading the point of the article if their quotes are used to convey the message.

For example, McConkey's 5,000 cases per day by the end of October BS;

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5902549/coronavirus-ireland-sam-mcconkey-dublin-covid-cases-october/

Also McConkey, "Dublin could go to Level 4 or 5";

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/dublin-could-go-to-level-4-or-level-5-if-cases-continue-to-rise-1.4362266

caveat emptor

hynesie08 wrote: »

I wouldn't waste the ten minutes, you had one lunatic ****ing on about 100s of children dieing and a death rate 10x the flu, and another lunatic ****ing on about James Joyce. Your time would be better spent headbutting a wall.

She defo looked out of it but I wouldn't write her opinion off based on that.
I don't think neither of them are the best to comment all of society decisions regarding it given their background.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunetra_Gupta

She is currently a professor of theoretical epidemiology in the Department of Zoology at the University of Oxford, where she leads a team of infectious disease epidemiologists.

right sounds good although I'd prefer a real epidemiology professor as opposed to a theoretical one considering people will die and health system will be overrun here.

She kept rambling on about the arts! and Joyce. Here's why for those interested. RTE need better guests. Mike Ryan, Michael Osterholm, Fauci etc. People who have to get their hands dirty with the outcomes of the decisions instead of champagne socialists and right wing ivory tower, let them die capitalists.

Novelist
Gupta wrote her first works of fiction in Bengali. She was the translator of the poetry of Rabindranath Tagore. She has published several novels in English. In October 2012 her fifth novel, So Good in Black, was longlisted for the DSC Prize for South Asian Literature.[15]

Her novels have been awarded the Sahitya Akademi Award, the Southern Arts Literature Prize, shortlisted for the Crossword Award, and longlisted for the Orange Prize. Her novels include:

Memories of Rain. Penguin Books India, New Delhi 1992, ISBN 978-0-14-016907-2.
The Glassblower's Breath (1993)
Moonlight into Marzipan (1995)
A Sin of Colour (1999)
So Good in Black (2009)

New Home

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Is there a website that shows new coronavirus cases per county?

This is the official one: https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Boggles

OwenM wrote: »

Maybe that's because she is an epidemiologist debating epidemiology with a neuroscientist, a bit like an electrician debating house wiring with a plumber.

From wikipedia:

"wrote her PhD thesis on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. She is currently a professor of theoretical epidemiology in the Department of Zoology at the University of Oxford, where she leads a team of infectious disease epidemiologists. She has done research on various infectious diseases, including malaria, HIV, influenza, bacterial meningitis and COVID-19"

Again, I don't really see what her qualifications have got to with it or what organisation she is attached to. We have Nobel prize winners declaring the pandemic was over months ago.

It's the substance or lack of substance of her argument that I have issue with.

She is sticking with herd immunity no matter what the science tells her.

At the start she claimed we had reached herd immunity because enough virus had rinsed through enough of the population, when that turned out to be bullshít she changed it to we have enough natural immunity anyway.

Again, it's the ongoing science, the data and evidence that is continually underling how much an absolute cabbage she is.

Even that fúcking loon Boris is calling her ilk out as dangerous idiots.

PhilipsR

Reading articles about Australia and outside of the state of Victoria, it really is a triumph against Covid so far.

I think the contrast between Melbourne and Sydney is incredible and shows the benefits of a remarkable track and trace team. After an outbreak from Melbourne in Sydney after community transmission had been eradicated, it looks like Sydney has again eliminate the virus.

A real pity we haven't got the capabilities here in Ireland to get the same job done.

Boggles

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

An absolute cabbage lol, who is a Professor of Epidemiology in Oxford.
I'm sure your qualifications allow you to pronounce she's a 'cabbage'. I won't ask for your CV as I'm sure it's impressive.
Thanks for the laugh.
We are so lucky with so many highly qualified experts taking time out of their busy days to offer expert opinion on educational qualifications of various other experts.

My actual qualifications wouldn't apply. They wouldn't be needed.

All you need is a basic grasp of maths and common sense to she the woman is to be completely ignored.

caveat emptor

New Home wrote: »

This is the official one: https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Thanks, The whole working class Dublin metro areas are the only areas affected is bull crap. Most areas in Dublin above the national average.

Celbridge likely the large school outbreak.
Skerries / balbriggan the tiktok waitresses.
Bray

These are not predominantly working class areas. More granular data would be better of course.

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

Again, I don't really see what her qualifications have got to with it or what organisation she is attached to. We have Nobel prize winners declaring the pandemic was over months ago.

It's the substance or lack of substance of her argument that I have issue with.

She is sticking with herd immunity no matter what the science tells her.

At the start she claimed we had reached herd immunity because enough virus had rinsed through enough of the population, when that turned out to be bullshít she changed it to we have enough natural immunity anyway.

Again, it's the ongoing science, the data and evidence that is continually underling how much an absolute cabbage she is.

Even that fúcking loon Boris is calling her ilk out as dangerous idiots.

I get impression that Gupta's main motivation is the rivalry between Imperial and Oxford Epidemiology teams and the fact that Imperial are at the heart of the UK response and Oxford aren't. She is positioning herself in opposition as any error by Imperial can then be claimed by her as they are wrong and she is right.
Her points however are best refuted by facts, not calling her a cabbage.
And the degree of resistance to the virus in a proportion of the population needs to be studied and addressed in the models going forward

DangerScouse

PhilipsR wrote: »

Reading articles about Australia and outside of the state of Victoria, it really is a triumph against Covid so far.

I think the contrast between Melbourne and Sydney is incredible and shows the benefits of a remarkable track and trace team. After an outbreak from Melbourne in Sydney after community transmission had been eradicated, it looks like Sydney has again eliminate the virus.

A real pity we haven't got the capabilities here in Ireland to get the same job done.

We have the capability we just don't have the will.

Wolf359f

PhilipsR wrote: »

Reading articles about Australia and outside of the state of Victoria, it really is a triumph against Covid so far.

I think the contrast between Melbourne and Sydney is incredible and shows the benefits of a remarkable track and trace team. After an outbreak from Melbourne in Sydney after community transmission had been eradicated, it looks like Sydney has again eliminate the virus.

A real pity we haven't got the capabilities here in Ireland to get the same job done.

There's a stark difference between what Ireland went through and what Victoria did, in regard to restrictions. You really need to read up on the restrictions that were imposed on them. They were extreme.
It's not about capabilities, it's about public buy-in.

You would also want to be very careful saying they have eliminated the virus or eradicated community transmission.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Her points however are best refuted by facts, not calling her a cabbage.

She is peddling dangerous nonsense, cabbage is nice.

Her points don't need to be refuted - she has done that herself, no one important is listening to her, it's why she is doing youtube videos and quite clearly drunk zoom interviews.

Drumpot

Martina1991 wrote: »

Here's an opinion piece from an American Dr. with a background in laboratory science Geoffrey Baird, MD, PhD about the use of rapid tests.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88612?fbclid=IwAR3NkjI4MtNP0Pu_iLx7pqMEoezEtkUomLPHgLzLmnl7di31dl8UiQ46uPQ

To use rapid tests, you have to sacrifice accuracy for speed. Current testing is diagnostic. Rapid testing at airports would be screening.
With screening you have to accept that it will miss some cases as these tests will not be as accurate.

To produce them at such a vast scale would be very expensive. Maybe the airlines would cover the cost. I doubt the government would.

So it comes down to cost v benefit. Do we want to spend millions on tests that may catch some but will miss cases too.

Plus these rapid tests still have to be performed by trained healthcare professionals, they cannot be done at home. They are point of care tests.

In terms of cost benefit analysis, What are the financial rewards of a fully open economy but massive investment in these $1 dollar tests? If western countries could throw what they think a rolling lockdown might cost into cheap, quick reliable tests, would that not be a preferred option for all?

Everybody seems to be banking on a vaccine and we Could be in the same boat this time next year. Even at that a vaccine may not be the silver bullet we imagine. Just feels like there’s very rigid thinking with regards to strategies to address this.

Sierra Oscar

Boggles wrote: »

She is peddling dangerous nonsense, cabbage is nice.

Her points don't need to be refuted - she has done that herself, no one important is listening to her, it's why she is doing youtube videos and quite clearly drunk zoom interviews.

When you hear someone start rabbiting on about theoretics and deflecting away from discussing the here and now of what is happening on the ground then you know you're listening to a bit of a spoofer.

mandrake04

PhilipsR wrote: »

Reading articles about Australia and outside of the state of Victoria, it really is a triumph against Covid so far.

I think the contrast between Melbourne and Sydney is incredible and shows the benefits of a remarkable track and trace team. After an outbreak from Melbourne in Sydney after community transmission had been eradicated, it looks like Sydney has again eliminate the virus.

A real pity we haven't got the capabilities here in Ireland to get the same job done.

NSW never closed their schools, and everything has been open since start of June, pubs and restaurants have 4m2 per person. So a 100m2 area has a 25 limit, 200m2 limit to 50. Really geared up for eating and drinking outside.

Limit to 20 persons per house, and not large gatherings like concerts or festivals.

Sydney only really had about 2000 cases of community transmission, 1/2 its cases was travelers in quarantine.

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/nsw


Melbourne downfall was being the more European city in Oz and took the European approach and not taking quarantine seriously that’s what started it, also their weather is Shyte during winter that’s what put the nail in the coffin.

Weather in Sydney been far milder and even more so in QLD.

Plus they great testing capacity, they were doing between 300-400K per week, and still have a reserve of 10m tests

Boggles

Boggles wrote: »

She is peddling dangerous nonsense, cabbage is nice.

Her points don't need to be refuted - she has done that herself, no one important is listening to her, it's why she is doing youtube videos and quite clearly drunk zoom interviews.

The debate in UK medical and Academic circles is not just Gupta vs the rest however and is being discussed in the BMJ no less.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3702.full

An argument is lost when you resort to cheap insults over facts

Paddygreen

Boggles wrote: »

Everyone over 60 has to cocoon before we reach herd immunity?

Sure that will work.

:rolleyes:

Make it illegal for them to be anywhere other than in a shop that they have picked for the purchase of their essentials. House arrest, but for their own good.

Plumbthedepths

Boggles wrote: »

My actual qualifications wouldn't apply. They wouldn't be needed.

All you need is a basic grasp of maths and common sense to she the woman is to be completely ignored.

You mean anyone who disagrees with the narrative you are comfortable with should be ignored. That's all I take form your response.
Personally I feel there are loons on both sides.
It will be interesting to see who is eventually right. Although I suspect it will be somewhere in the middle of the two extremes.

Paddygreen

Paddygreen wrote: »

Make it illegal for them to be anywhere other than in a shop that they have picked for the purchase of their essentials. House arrest, but for their own good.

As spoof posts go, that’s quite a good one

Martina1991

Drumpot wrote: »

In terms of cost benefit analysis, What are the financial rewards of a fully open economy but massive investment in these $1 dollar tests? If western countries could throw what they think a rolling lockdown might cost into cheap, quick reliable tests, would that not be a preferred option for all?

Everybody seems to be banking on a vaccine and we Could be in the same boat this time next year. Even at that a vaccine may not be the silver bullet we imagine. Just feels like there’s very rigid thinking with regards to strategies to address this.

If the tests aren't sufficiently accurate it'd be a bit like using a match stick to keep a barn door bolted. The virus will still get in! Cases will rise, hospitals fill up and we're back to restrictions.

Everyone wants society to open up ASAP but it's a balancing act between the economy and the health service. Its up to NPHET and the powers that be to explore all options and find that balance.