What is our plan?

Feria40

hmmm wrote: »

How could a plan possibly cope with people ignoring public health advice?

I thinks it's about SOME people ignoring the rules. It is then that the lack of any real enforcement means that the few ruin it for the rest

completedit

It's going to be awful. Really. It just feels like if you're in the 18-35 year old age bracket, you're really losing out on valuable years, especially if you're single. I'm on the other side of 30 and covid has destroyed my relationship and future job opportunities(my fault took the scenic route out of my 20's). I'm stoic by nature and have dealt with a lot but jesus, it's a tough time.

snotboogie

aido79 wrote: »

Think further ahead. This all started in Ireland with one case. After 3 months we have no cases..then the borders are opened again(I'm not really sure how they've been closed but I'll humour you for now) and one asymptomatic case starts the whole thing off again. Do you we do another 3 months of your plan or do we just keep it going indefinitely until the population of Ireland is vaccinated?

Same as New Zealand. Two weeks quartine on arrival with tests. He's answered the question nearly every time I've heard him speak.

i_surge

aido79 wrote: »

Think further ahead. This all started in Ireland with one case. After 3 months we have no cases..then the borders are opened again(I'm not really sure how they've been closed but I'll humour you for now) and one asymptomatic case starts the whole thing off again. Do you we do another 3 months of your plan or do we just keep it going indefinitely until the population of Ireland is vaccinated?

Yeah but i can just point that back at you and ask how do we justify sending kids back to school and the like on the same basis?

It is awful pessimism to nit pick a plan to improve the situation while accepting the status quo.

Similar to the people who say wearing a mask puts you more at risk because you will touch your face. A tactic acceptance of the problem while trying to deny it.

Feria40

completedit wrote: »

It's going to be awful. Really. It just feels like if you're in the 18-35 year old age bracket, you're really losing out on valuable years, especially if you're single. I'm on the other side of 30 and covid has destroyed my relationship and future job opportunities(my fault took the scenic route out of my 20's). I'm stoic by nature and have dealt with a lot but jesus, it's a tough time.

I suspect winter will be an absolute cluster****

Rightly or wrongly school's will be closing on a regular basis due to an outbreak of Covid or even just cases of the regular winter sniffles.

Same goes for workplaces, in all likelihood Paddy only has a bit of a cough but maybe just maybe it's something much worse, are you going to come to work and sit next to Paddy?

I hate winter at the best of times but jaysus not looking forward to this one.

completedit

Brutal. Morale is going to be shot to pieces. Suppose we just have to enjoy these long evenings while we have them for a month more or so.

Strumms

hmmm wrote: »

The answer is in your own post.

The government can't do everything here. If people don't want to follow social distancing, throw house parties etc. there isn't much we can do.

And no-one is going to advocate letting the virus rip through the population.

What we can do is enable the law to be a deterrent.

If I call the Gardai on say my neighbor. 4 people in the household and 20 from elsewhere say 6 households having a party in one gaff... the Gardai arrest, charge, goes to court... judges convict and sentence... covered by the news, as well as covid stats.. they publish regulation breaking stats, naming and shaming as they would be legally entitled to... nobody wants that legacy... all for having a shindig... it’s going to have a baring on people’s future employment (criminal record and standing in the community)... there is a deterrent the law and community.

YellowBucket

I’m kinda getting a bit fed up with the demands for a plan too. We’ve a set of guidelines, monitoring and expertise in place to try and navigate the ship through a complex and unpredictable set of obstacles.

I saw a representative from one of the chamber of commerce demanding to know if we could fly in 6 months time. It’s like there’s an expectation of crystal ball and accurate forecasting.

We don’t know! We are flying by the seat of our pants and that’s just the reality of it. To pretend we could come up with a long term plan would be to lie.

The more information comes in on the disease and how it operates, the more we will be able to plan but you can’t model or plan without knowledge, data and experience.

So so we can really do is have flexible contingencies and try to risk balance.

That’s the unfortunate reality of it.

This is entirely about adapt and survive.

GazzaL

Strumms wrote: »

What we can do is enable the law to be a deterrent.

If I call the Gardai on say my neighbor. 4 people in the household and 20 from elsewhere say 6 households having a party in one gaff... the Gardai arrest, charge, goes to court... judges convict and sentence... covered by the news, as well as covid stats.. they publish regulation breaking stats, naming and shaming as they would be legally entitled to... nobody wants that legacy... all for having a shindig... it’s going to have a baring on people’s future employment (criminal record and standing in the community)... there is a deterrent the law and community.

You make North Korea sound attractive.

i_surge

completedit wrote: »

Brutal. Morale is going to be shot to pieces. Suppose we just have to enjoy these long evenings while we have them for a month more or so.

I'm with you on all this. I hate it. I want to do two months hard time and then be free as bird.

It is tough but i have done 5 and it would be much easier with a purpose and end goal.

combat14

100,000 people have flown into ireland in the last 2 weeks...

Our R number is now at 1.8 and seems to be rising not sure how school are going to open at this rate


as for a plan... the government have gone on holidays for 6 weeks that seems to be about it ..

hmmm

Feria40 wrote: »

I suspect winter will be an absolute cluster****

Rightly or wrongly school's will be closing on a regular basis due to an outbreak of Covid or even just cases of the regular winter sniffles.

Same goes for workplaces, in all likelihood Paddy only has a bit of a cough but maybe just maybe it's something much worse, are you going to come to work and sit next to Paddy?

I hate winter at the best of times but jaysus not looking forward to this one.

Unfortunately I agree with you, but this stuff happens when you're human. It's a 1 in a 100 year pandemic, and we know how to stop it - that's actually amazing. I don't think government has done enough to tell people that this will not end in a couple of weeks or even a couple of months. I've said for a long time that we should be planning on moving as much stuff outdoors as we can - our wet climate works against us, but we're lucky we don't get the extreme cold other countries do.

The good news is that there are lots of vaccines in development, and treatments as well. We should get a handle on this in 2021, probably from about mid-year.

Feria40

i_surge wrote: »

Yeah but i can just point that back at you and ask how do we justify sending kids back to school and the like on the same basis?

It is awful pessimism to nit pick a plan to improve the situation while accepting the status quo.

Similar to the people who say wearing a mask puts you more at risk because you will touch your face. A tactic acceptance of the problem while trying to deny it.

Asking if we should seal our borders indefinitely until a vaccine is discovered, rolled out (globally) and proven to be effective over a period of time is hardly nit picking

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

Asking if we should seal our borders indefinitely until a vaccine is discovered, rolled out (globally) and proven to be effective over a period of time is hardly nit picking

Your are putting words in my mouths. A strategic hard lock down to eliminate the need for any lock down. Nothing indefinite, the exact opposite.

It is the only show in town. I will check back here in 6 months to see the sentiment shift once you realise open border limbo is destined to fail.

GazzaL

i_surge wrote: »

Your are putting words in my mouths. A strategic hard lock down to eliminate the need for any lock down. Nothing indefinite, the exact opposite.

It is the only show in town. I will check back here in 6 months to see the sentiment shift once you realise open border limbo is destined to fail.

It is the only show in fantasy land. We can't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world.

i_surge

GazzaL wrote: »

It is the only show in fantasy land. We can't shut ourselves off from the rest of the world.

Why?

YellowBucket

Given that we aren’t very dependent on foreign tourism, we can and have put a buffer between us and the rest of the world.

You don’t have to cut yourself off from the rest of the world, but putting a safety system of testing and quarantine in place is useful.

We need to improve that buffer system to make it both safer and more user friendly. It’s not like COVID-19 is just going to vanish this autumn, so put the necessary infrastructure in place! It will save us money in the long run.

Feria40

i_surge wrote: »

Your are putting words in my mouths. A strategic hard lock down to eliminate the need for any lock down. Nothing indefinite, the exact opposite.

It is the only show in town. I will check back here in 6 months to see the sentiment shift once you realise open border limbo is destined to fail.

My god but you are still refusing to answer the question! Time and time again.

A strategic hard lockdown tomorrow ok, let's say for 2 months. Covid is mostly eleminated...but probably not fully as we know that lots of carries are asymptomatic ( look at the meat plant in Kildare today where and I quote a very large number of positive cases were asymptomatic)

2 months time we are fully open internally at least. That small level of transmission between asymptomatic young people starts to spread around as the economy opens before eventually jumping to the more vulnerable.

Still a mllion people on the dole, government still borrowing to beat the band..

Oh yeah and external borders are also still sealed indefinitely including with NI

GazzaL

YellowBucket wrote: »

Given that we aren’t very dependent on foreign tourism, we can and have put a buffer between us and the rest of the world.

You don’t have to cut yourself off from the rest of the world, but putting a safety system of testing and quarantine in place is useful.

We need to improve that buffer system to make it both safer and more user friendly. It’s not like COVID-19 is just going to vanish this autumn, so put the necessary infrastructure in place! It will save us money in the long run.

Ah sure what's a few billion to our economy and a few hundred thousand jobs? Not to mention the importance of business travel for non-tourism related industries.

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

My god but you are still refusing to answer the question! Time and time again.

A strategic hard lockdown tomorrow ok, let's say for 2 months. Covid is mostly eleminated...but probably not fully as we know that lots of carries are asymptomatic ( look at the meat plant in Kildare today where and I quote a very large number of positive cases were asymptomatic)

2 months time we are fully open internally at least. That small level of transmission between asymptomatic young people starts to spread around as the economy opens before eventually jumping to the more vulnerable.

Still a mllion people on the dole, government still borrowing to beat the band..

Oh yeah and external borders are also still sealed indefinitely including with NI

And I'm headbutting the table that you see black as white, respectfully.

If we can track down and isolate all cases, wait out the incubation periods, rinse and repeat....go hard or it won't work there would be no viable covid on the island.

Ambitious? Very
Mightn't work? big chance
Better than the status quo of no plan is a good one? A thousand times over

Then you get crazy strict on visitors to protect our virginal purity.

i_surge

GazzaL wrote: »

Ah sure what's a few billion to our economy and a few hundred thousand jobs? Not to mention the importance of business travel for non-tourism related industries.

This is a fantastical future yet to happen. We are very slowly bleeding out as we speak though.

GazzaL

i_surge wrote: »

And I'm headbutting the table that you see black as white, respectfully.

If we can track down and isolate all cases, wait out the incubation periods, rinse and repeat....go hard or it won't work there would be no viable covid on the island.

Ambitious? Very
Mightn't work? big chance
Better than the status quo of no plan is a good one? A thousand times over

Then you get crazy strict on visitors to protect our virginal purity.

We already waited out the incubation periods. It's not going away anytime soon, and as the WHO said, we need to get on with life.

i_surge

GazzaL wrote: »

We already waited out the incubation periods. It's not going away anytime soon, and as the WHO said, we need to get on with life.

What is the rational basis for doing that and what is the path to recovery in your book?

I just don't get this line of thinking

snotboogie

snotboogie wrote: »

Same as New Zealand. Two weeks quartine on arrival with tests. He's answered the question nearly every time I've heard him speak.

That’s not an open border. That’s a mechanism by which citizens can return home. The question stands: what happens when we open our borders (which NZ will have to do eventually)

We nee to gear up our hospitals and get on with life. Treatments are getting better all the time

Bit cynical

YellowBucket wrote: »

Given that we aren’t very dependent on foreign tourism, we can and have put a buffer between us and the rest of the world.

You don’t have to cut yourself off from the rest of the world, but putting a safety system of testing and quarantine in place is useful.

We need to improve that buffer system to make it both safer and more user friendly. It’s not like COVID-19 is just going to vanish this autumn, so put the necessary infrastructure in place! It will save us money in the long run.

The country would need to be hermetically sealed though for this to be viable otherwise we would still have to maintain restrictions just in case the odd infected person slipped through and started spreading it, and how would we hermetically seal the border with the North with its fields and farms straddling the border.

snotboogie

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That’s not an open border. That’s a mechanism by which citizens can return home. The question stands: what happens when we open our borders (which NZ will have to do eventually)

We nee to gear up our hospitals and get on with life. Treatments are getting better all the time

New Zealand will open up when there is a safe vaccine and continue to run their economy at 100% capacity with no social distancing until that time. If we follow our current path we will lumber in and out of rolling lockdown stages with the economy chugging along at 40-80% until there is a vaccine.

If there is a vaccine in September that will be fully rolled out in 2021 we'll get away with our current strategy. If we are waiting years we are screwed.

Bit cynical

hmmm wrote: »

How could a plan possibly cope with people ignoring public health advice?

Doesn't matter. What is the point of a plan if you know in advance people will circumvent it thereby rendering it ineffective? Behavioural characteristics of the population have to be taken into consideration just like climate, geography and economics. If, for example, people are only going to put up with a strict lockdown for, say, five months before they start to find ways around it, then that is the effective limit of a lockdown. A plan involving a lockdown until a vaccine maybe a year later is therefore unrealistic.

Sure you get to blame people if it does not work but the goal is not to have someone to blame but to have a realistic sustainable plan.

i_surge

snotboogie wrote: »

If we are waiting years we are screwed.

I fear it will take 6 months for that penny to drop.

snotboogie

snotboogie wrote: »

New Zealand will open up when there is a safe vaccine and continue to run their economy at 100% capacity with no social distancing until that time. If we follow our current path we will lumber in and out of rolling lockdown stages with the economy chugging along at 40-80% until there is a vaccine.

If there is a vaccine in September that will be fully rolled out in 2021 we'll get away with our current strategy. If we are waiting years we are screwed.

And you think we can keep our borders closed for years in that scenario? I don’t know what kind of world you think we live in

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

Doesn't matter. What is the point of a plan if you know in advance people will circumvent it thereby rendering it ineffective? Behavioural characteristics of the population have to be taken into consideration just like climate, geography and economics. If, for example, people are only going to put up with a strict lockdown for, say, five months before they start to find ways around it, then that is the effective limit of a lockdown. A plan involving a lockdown until a vaccine maybe a year later is therefore unrealistic.

Sure you get to blame people if it does not work but the goal is not to have someone to blame but to have a realistic sustainable plan.

It is a big problem for sure but there is more that can be done on the compliance side.

Put it to a vote

Get public support, or not. Fair is fair