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What is our plan?

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24567…12

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    #32
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Marco Ashy Sarsaparilla wrote: »

    The push would be for new enterprises e.g. buy e.g. a delivery van (one big growth sector), or other 'tools for gigging'. Bonus is that there is no red tape and benefits fiasco.

    There are a lot of barriers to entry for small businesses that could and should be eliminated I agree. There will be more small business startup grants I'd hope.

    For example, you have the unfair treatment of entrepreneurs by social welfare if things don't work out.


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    #33
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Deleted User wrote: »
    This plan only works if a 100% effective vaccine comes along soon, that can be administered to 60% + of the population straight away. It would be a huge gamble. Because the borders cant stay shut forever and if you lock down like this for, say, a couple of years, and then open up with the virus not totally eradicated globally, we will be back to where we are today. But with two years of economic destruction behind us.

    NZ will find this out soon enough if there is not an effective vaccine by next summer. And they do not have half of the cross border travel, and international interconnectivity that we do

    And the fact is that there no-one (except Trump) is saying that any vaccine is going to stop this thing in its tracks.

    I don't agree and what I'm talking about does not need a vaccine. I imagine the NZ domestic economy is looking healthy right now.

    If you think about it, you don't need to travel. It is a luxury. Any travel that is truely essential can still take place, you just have to follow a logical quarantine protocol. This will natural filter out nonessential travel.

    If people could live a normal life on the island of Ireland for a year or two until this blows over wouldn't that be fantastic?

    As it stands you can't really travel, you can't really do much and the economy is dying. My solution gets you most of the way there on 2/3.


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    #34
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    i_surge wrote: »
    If people could live a normal life on the island or Ireland for a year or two until this blows over wouldn't that be fantastic?

    To MANY Irish natives, that's like saying to a recalictrant toddler, " You can have that sweet / piece of chocolate / lollipop in another hour!!" :

    Think ofhow the toddler will "consider" that answer.


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    #35
    HeidiHeidi
    Registered Users Posts: 28,962 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    Marco Ashy Sarsaparilla wrote: »
    Health: Jab the obese/sick or over 50's. But let all us young uns (slowly) build up controlled immunity, ideally a weaker strain will evolve and spread, or a cheap fast treatment technique will develop.
    Economy: Tax the rich (the only real winners so far) and pay the (new)poor using UBI, to kickstart a new, dynamic, emmerging, flexi-gig-economy.
    Jab them with what?? :confused:


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    #36
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Deleted User wrote: »
    To MANY Irish natives, that's like saying to a recalictrant toddler, " You can have that sweet / piece of chocolate / lollipop in another hour!!" :

    Think ofhow the toddler will "consider" that answer.

    Yeah the classic problem of delayed gratification. We have been living a half life for 5 months now. Other countries are back to normal and safe. It is pathetically mediocre.

    We need enough people to decide to endure a hard 6 weeks to get it as close to sorted as possible. 6 weeks when we have had 5 months of life on pause isn't a big ask.

    Just need the political strength to bring in laws to punish noncompliance as has worked remarkedly well in Spain and Italy.

    Irish mediocrity coming to the fore here. Suck it up. Fix it.


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    #37
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    HeidiHeidi wrote: »
    Jab them with what?? :confused:
    Vaccine, but just for the oldies/obese/health challenged.

    It might'nt even work, and may need multiple goes, and may have health risks in itself, if brought in under emergency licencing, breaking the previous 5yr record, for concept to on-the -shelf final production.

    The perfect solution would be for covid to weaken or gradually dissipate, like previous SARSv1, MERS and the ye olde Spanish Flu etc.

    If the young and healthy catch a weakend strain, this could serve them well in future years. Controlled, slow herd immunity is kind of what we have now anyway i.e. Facilites are fully available to treat, if it can remain under a certain level. Levels will still continue, but just slighty elevated above normal flu seasons.

    Thus the economy needs a new envelope (excuse the pun) breaking, creative solution e.g. UBI, while this health approach continues for the forseeable future.


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    #38
    Richard Hillman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    HeidiHeidi wrote: »
    Jab them with what?? :confused:

    A substantial meal of €9 or more.


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    #39
    HeidiHeidi
    Registered Users Posts: 28,962 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    Marco Ashy Sarsaparilla wrote: »
    Vaccine, but just for the oldies/obese/health challenged.

    It might'nt even work, and may need multiple goes, and may have health risks in itself, if brought in under emergency licencing, breaking the previous 5yr record, for concept to on-the -shelf final production.

    The perfect solution would be for covid to weaken or gradually dissipate, like previous SARSv1, MERS and the ye olde Spanish Flu etc.

    If the young and healthy catch a weakend strain, this could serve them well in future years. Controlled, slow herd immunity is kind of what we have now anyway i.e. Facilites are fully available to treat, if it can remain under a certain level. Levels will still continue, but just slighty elevated above normal flu seasons.

    Thus the economy needs a new envelope (excuse the pun) breaking, creative solution e.g. UBI, while this health approach continues for the forseeable future.

    That's nice.

    What vaccine?


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    #40
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    i_surge wrote: »
    Except that it will never happen without serious political unrest and Covid will be gone by the time the bill is signed.

    Plus I was joking.


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    #41
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I am confused. I sense restrictions in some counties will be reintroduced. When we get a handle on this increase in cases and those restrictions are lifted, when the schools reopen, when phase 4 goes ahead; Cases will rise again.
    What happens then? Another ride on the merrygorround of restict/ease?


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    #42
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I am confused. I sense restrictions in some counties will be reintroduced. When we get a handle on this increase in cases and those restrictions are lifted, when the schools reopen, when phase 4 goes ahead; Cases will rise again.
    What happens then? Another ride on the merrygorround of restict/ease?

    Yes...

    A total eradication policy is the only solution I can see that doesn't involve hope and prayers.


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    #43
    dubrov
    Registered Users Posts: 3,559 ✭✭✭dubrov


    i_surge wrote:
    A total eradication policy is the only solution I can see that doesn't involve hope and prayers.

    I'm afraid that involves a miracle. Total eradication is not a realistic possibility even with the border fully closed


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    #44
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    dubrov wrote: »
    I'm afraid that involves a miracle. Total eradication is not a realistic possibility even with the border fully closed

    Why not? Ambitious very, impossible it is not.

    It is much more realistic than reopen and hopes it goes away by a huge margin.


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    #45
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    i_surge wrote: »
    Yes...

    A total eradication policy is the only solution I can see that doesn't involve hope and prayers.

    Closing the borders so. What would happen when we open them back up?


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    #46
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    MadYaker wrote: »
    I think a lot of people just don't understand whats happening and thats why they are frustrated.

    Yes but then they shouldn't have be in government?


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    #47
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    i_surge wrote: »
    Have the balls to go hard on all out eradication.

    Anything else is a long slow and painful path.

    Suck it up and get it done.
    Not realistic unless you want to keep all restrictions in place until there's a vaccine.


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    #48
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    HeidiHeidi wrote: »
    That's nice.
    What vaccine?
    The 2021 one, but save it just for the oldies and obese, in the meantime roll out the UBI carpet, the UBI carpet of joy.


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    #49
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    i_surge wrote: »
    Why not? Ambitious very, impossible it is not.

    It is much more realistic than reopen and hopes it goes away by a huge margin.

    What about the northern Irish border?

    Where are we economically five years down the road of closed borders?


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    #50
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Not realistic unless you want to keep all restrictions in place until there's a vaccine.

    It is realistic.

    It is so simple at the core.....in the presence of the virus there are only two factors, social mixing and hygiene when people meet.

    If standards were ramped up and the public got behind getting their lives back with good notice to prepare, sort out the financial mechanics of keeping everyone but the most essential services safe at home, ramp up non contact food delivery, strict punishments for non compliance teamed with social shaming tactics it could be done in 6 to 8 weeks. With some design there could still be socialising of sorts. Governments were throwing the book at it initially but they got tired and a half in half out worked to an extent but now we are stuck and it is time to ramp up.

    You only see deprivation when delayed gratification it is the key to your freedom.


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    #51
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Carter Fit Trance wrote: »
    What about the northern Irish border?

    Where are we economically five years down the road of closed borders?

    Close it.

    5 years, winning.


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    #52
    fly_agaric
    Registered Users Posts: 4,842 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    dubrov wrote: »
    I'm afraid that involves a miracle. Total eradication is not a realistic possibility even with the border fully closed

    It is possible in (unlikely) event we got NI on board with some common plan of testing/monitoring/quarantining (delete as appropriate, depending on situation) all arrivals.
    Once we include them, we do all live on a small island with a manageable population in which virus can be eliminated. You can't get in here without coming on a plane or a boat so (edit virtually...?) all entries could be monitored/controlled if the will is there.

    However, even if political will to restrict travel for elimination existed here (it obviously does not), it would involve NI giving 2 fingers to UK govt. too.
    I think health is devolved (?) so they probably could do it (as an extraordinary public health measure).

    I'd imagine the Conservatives would be angry. They would probably try & stop it, or would take revenge on NI assembly some other way (funding cuts?).


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    #53
    HeidiHeidi
    Registered Users Posts: 28,962 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    fly_agaric wrote: »
    It is possible in (unlikely) event we got NI on board with some common plan of testing/monitoring/quarantining (delete as appropriate, depending on situation) all arrivals.
    Once we include them, we do all live on a small island with a manageable population in which virus can be eliminated. You can't get in here without coming on a plane or a boat so all entries could be monitored/controlled if the will is there.

    However, even if political will to restrict travel for elimination existed here (it obviously does not), it would involve NI giving 2 fingers to UK govt. too.
    I think health is devolved (?) so they probably could to do it (as an extraordinary public health measure).

    I'd imagine the Conservatives would be angry. They would probably try & stop it, or would take revenge on NI assembly some other way (funding cuts?).

    And how would you plan to get NI to close its border with the rest of the UK?

    Honestly, I'd love to be smoking what some posters in here are on!


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    #54
    fly_agaric
    Registered Users Posts: 4,842 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    HeidiHeidi wrote: »
    And how would you plan to get NI to close its border with the rest of the UK?

    Honestly, I'd love to be smoking what some posters in here are on!

    Ha I only said it is possible. edit: I have not been partaking of anything.
    Theoretically possible...but not politically possible!
    Probably one of those "if my aunt had..." things. :pac:


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    #55
    Bit cynical
    Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    MadYaker wrote: »
    How could you not know what the plan is OP? Its been pretty much the same since March bar the speeding up of the reopening. I think a lot of people just don't understand whats happening and thats why they are frustrated.
    If that was the plan, it was a plan that was never going to work.

    Shutting things down does lower infection rates. No problem with that, but there's no permanence in that solution. Even if no restrictions are lifted, people will start finding ways around them and the R number will rise above 1 and cases start to increase. Actual lifting of the restrictions and cases also rise. They are rising now and therefore we can't ease any more restrictions. The plan has hit a brick wall.

    I think we're going to have to open schools in September. We have no choice and while schools are probably not the biggest problem, cases will continue to rise at a faster rate.

    The measures we took were successful in a very narrow sense. We got infections and deaths down. But a very low level of infections also means very low levels of immunity and this in turn means greater increases when anything opens up (such as things like schools which have to open up) and also when people inevitably find ways around the restrictions.

    So there is no plan at the moment. I don't know what we were thinking. Maybe we thought there would be a vaccine in September.


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    #56
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    But a very low level of infections also means very low levels of immunity and this in turn means greater increases when anything opens up (such as things like schools which have to open up) and also when people inevitably find ways around the restrictions.
    The answer is in your own post.

    The government can't do everything here. If people don't want to follow social distancing, throw house parties etc. there isn't much we can do.

    And no-one is going to advocate letting the virus rip through the population.


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    #57
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    fly_agaric wrote: »
    Ha I only said it is possible. edit: I have not been partaking of anything.
    Theoretically possible...but not politically possible!
    Probably one of those "if my aunt had..." things. :pac:

    Mediocre closed minded European attitude.

    We should look to our betters in Asia who don't make excuses.


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    #58
    Feria40
    Registered Users Posts: 442 ✭✭Feria40


    A lot of comments around a vaccine being discovered this year with a roll out in 2021.

    IMO that is extremely optimistic, especially the roll out.

    Also it appears that all the vaccines in the works are likely to give no more than 12 months protection at best, perhaps less.

    That's fine, we can have annual boosters but unless a very large portion of the country (and planet) get vaccinated very very quickly this thing could keep rolling around for several years.

    Also, it's highly unlikely that it will become mandatory for people to take any vaccine. Especially when said vaccine is going to be so new and relatively untested.

    I don't expect we will ever seal our borders but even if we somehow did it would be for a very short period only.

    While we should 100% focus on track and trace as best we can, it has to be remembered that a significant portion of people who get this prick of a disease will be either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. This means that it is inevitable that some level of transmission will keep occuring

    IMHO, we need to get real on enforcement of the existing rules. Social distancing in supermarkets? No such thing. Never mind the likes of meat plants.

    I know mask wearing is not mandatory just yet in shops but Jesus it seemed like every single middle aged man I saw in my local shopping centre today had the mask over their mouths but not nose.

    In Ireland it seems that the government is leaving enforcement entirely in the hands of the community. While in many European countries (which some have spent the last month wagging their fingers at due to spiraling infection rates - pot/kettle now) enforcement is a big deal with potentially huge financial penalties for non compliance.

    Get real on enforcement, get real on ensuring the elderly in our nursing homes are protected and then start getting on with normal life.

    It pains me to say it but the most vulnerable, including the likes of my own parents may need to shield themselves for an extended period.

    Bottom line we need to get on with life.


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    #59
    i_surge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭i_surge


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    If that was the plan, it was a plan that was never going to work.
    We have no choice

    See above.

    There are always options.


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    #60
    bettyoleary
    Registered Users Posts: 400 ✭✭bettyoleary


    touts wrote: »
    Plan is reopen the economy and hope for the best. Unfortunately it has to be done. The economy can't continue half open. Schools reopening is key as that allows parents to go back to work. If there is a rise in cases there is a rise in cases. It's probably seen as the lesser of two evils now. Couple of symbolic things (e.g. leave the wet pubs closed a few weeks longer) will be done to make it seem like the lockdown is still a possibility but in reality the economy now takes priority
    But why dont we consider what jobs the parents are going back too. Schools opening fully will spread the virus exponentially, that is a given. Home schooling is a viable option and children do very well. Look at research. When teaching gets beyond parents capabilities then home tutors can be called in. There will be plenty available. Parents who claim they cant afford this arnt earning enough to make the jobs they do important enough to risk a huge surge in the virus. The jobs they do can easily be done by people who dont have child commitments.

    Children can meet outside and in pods for sports. That solves the problem of children missing friends, peers etc. Its a way better solution. Gets rid of bullying, peer pressure for drugs etc etc. Simple.


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    #61
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    To my mind there's been two significant developments in our understanding of the virus that have left us somewhat adrift in terms of what our plan should be.

    1. Aerosol transmission
    Back in March/April the game was all about washing your hands and coughing into your sleeve.
    Now that we know this is an airborne virus spread by symptomatic and not-symptomatic alike, that hangs in the air in poorly ventilated spaces, well, it changes everything.
    Simply put that means any shared indoor space, be it pub, school or meat factory is not safe. And cannot credibly be made safe in any realistic timeframe.

    2. Long covid
    It's not binary. Not simply life or death. This virus is seriously debilitating people in a multitude of ways.
    "Living with virus" is a wretched experience for an untold number of people.
    There's a huge potential economic burden to this too, as those with long term issues will most likely be less productive and also require significant help from our health system for an unknown amount of time. Possibly decades.

    I don't know what our plan should be. No fan of our gov, but I do have sympathy with them on this as it's a near impossible problem to navigate.
    Chuck brexit on top of it and it all just seems beyond the ken of any government of any hue.


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