What is our plan?

fly_agaric

dubrov wrote: »

Even New Zealand haven't implemented a long term solution. They will eventually lose their game of whack-a-mole. Just have a look at Australia

I don't see why they should - once they also have the virus test and trace capabilities on standby to "whack" anything that does get out of their quarantine/monitoring system immediately.
I agree the economic damage caused by such a policy is bad but they are obviously calculating that both the health benefits and economic upside of being able to have a local society entirely unrestricted by safety procedures, distancing, ppe etc are worth it.
Not that well versed, but afair 1 "state" in Australia f-ed up because they let private security manage the process for them.
The government really does have to take charge of critical stuff like this.

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

Let's just suspend the details for a moment and go back to basics.

Island nation
Control domestic cases
Don't import fresh ones

You don't believe it would work? Honestly?!

Unprecedented times, unprecedented measures.

The border is just a human problem to overcome. I think lads jumping fences to spread covid to the south is a paranoid illusion.

So close the airports and ports and get Northern Ireland to close their airports and ports too until everyone is vaccinated?

No I don't think it will work.

i_surge

aido79 wrote: »

So close the airports and ports and get Northern Ireland to close their airports and ports too until everyone is vaccinated?

No I don't think it will work.

Even from the mathematical epidemiological angle? Moving from an open to a closed system.

You are stretching it just because you can't envision a radical thing happening.

Vaccinated or covid dies of natural causes...same situation we are in now, no?

ronano

pgj2015 wrote: »

Anyone with half a brain knows the dregs of society are sinn fein supporters.

:rolleyes: great post, really made your point with sound evidence, the drivel from some of ye

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

Even from the mathematical epidemiological angle? Moving from an open to a closed system.

You are stretching it just because you can't envision a radical thing happening.

Vaccinated or covid dies of natural causes...same situation we are in now, no?

I'll ask 2 simple questions.

Do you understand that there are 2 separate countries on the island of Ireland?

And do you understand that one of country's political parties would rather subject themselves to a coronavirus outbreak than go against what the British government is doing?

i_surge

aido79 wrote: »

I'll ask 2 simple questions.

Do you understand that there are 2 separate countries on the island of Ireland?

And do you understand that one of country's political parties would rather subject themselves to a coronavirus outbreak than go against what the British government is doing?

I'm only outlining what will definitely work in principle if you can work around the obstacles. I'm sure most of NI has sane, rational people who might have an interest in getting their lives back. Just a thought. Collaboration is only impossible in your set of limiting beliefs.

Even if the NI border was open and we commited to the rest it would be a significant improvement and coming from a low baseline could make all the difference in not regressing.

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

I'm only outlining what will definitely work in principle if you can work around the obstacles. I'm sure most of NI has sane, rational people who might have an interest in getting their lives back. Just a thought. Collaboration is only impossible in your set of limiting beliefs.

Even if the NI border was open and we commited to the rest it would be a significant improvement and coming from a low baseline could make all the difference in not regressing.

There is no point in talking about what would work in principle if it can't be implemented in real life.

I don't mean to offend you but I get the impression that you are not from Ireland originally as you don't seem to understand the politics of Northern Ireland or even the basics about the border and what effect closing it might have.

i_surge

aido79 wrote: »

There is no point in talking about what would work in principle if it can't be implemented in real life.

I don't mean to offend you but I get the impression that you are not from Ireland originally as you don't seem to understand the politics of Northern Ireland or even the basics about the border and what effect closing it might have.

I just see the inability to take peer demonstrated effective hard measures when the time comes to be piss weak.

Better to never try

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

I just see the inability to take peer demonstrated effective hard measures when the time comes to be piss weak.

Better to never try

You really need to google how much the DUP are against anything that is Irish and maybe then you will understand why an island approach will never happen regardless of how much sense it makes.

Feria40

i_surge wrote: »

I just see the inability to take peer demonstrated effective hard measures when the time comes to be piss weak.

Better to never try

Back again tonight ��

Sorry my dear but your grasp of economic and political reality is unfortunately lacking

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

Back again tonight ��

Sorry my dear but your grasp of economic and political reality is unfortunately lacking

My grasp of the simplicity of eradication and its importance supercedes what I see as human problems to be overcome by hook or by crook.

Just a different attitude to the "that would never work here" pessimism.

Feria40

i_surge wrote: »

My grasp of the simplicity of eradication and its importance supercedes what I see as human problems to be overcome by hook or by crook.

Just a different attitude to the "that would never work here" pessimism.

Ok sure

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

Ok sure

I'm aware i'm talking pie in the sky ****e but the merits are undeniable

Feria40

Anyone else think the 3 county lockdown was a bit knee jerk today?

I mean is it just going to be lockdown after lockdown when the schools go back and we get stuck into winter??

I mean there is always going to be a certain level of reaciveness required with this yoke, but in Ireland it is reaciveness and little else.

It's a bit feckin late to be rolling out regular testing at the meat plants now, did no one in NPHET or the Government consider this as potentially worthwhile exercise 6 or 8 weeks ago?

I mean looking around the rest of the world it was obviously going to be a source of infection here too.

But sure why think ahead, let's just discomode a few hundred thousand people instead

fly_agaric

i_surge wrote: »

I'm aware i'm talking pie in the sky ****e but the merits are undeniable

Well you admit it is currently pie in the sky!
We require NI or better the rest of the UK fully on board and supporting such a policy too. If this carries on for a long time yet & causes further economic damage it is not beyond the bounds of possibility imo. There is quite a radical/extreme govt. next door right now so if BoJo and his minions take it into their heads elimination is the way to go they'll probably turn on a sixpence & actually try to do it (god help us/them!). Unfortunately they are also quite incompetent imo, so it would likely end in a failure like everything else they do! Completely stamping out a highly contagious virus in a dense population of 60M+ or so is not a trivial task even for a highly effective and efficient government.

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

Anyone else think the 3 county lockdown was a bit knee jerk today?

I mean is it just going to be lockdown after lockdown when the schools go back and we get stuck into winter??

I mean there is always going to be a certain level of reaciveness required with this yoke, but in Ireland it is reaciveness and little else.

It's a bit feckin late to be rolling out regular testing at the meat plants now, did no one in NPHET or the Government consider this as potentially worthwhile exercise 6 or 8 weeks ago?

I mean looking around the rest of the world it was obviously going to be a source of infection here too.

But sure why think ahead, let's just discomode a few hundred thousand people instead

It only goes to show why we can't entertain this half baked idea of "living with the virus"

Time to kill it

tobefrank321

Any plan is better than no plan. At least with a plan you have control and you have an exit strategy.

We have no exit strategy.

We're waiting on a vaccine that could come next year or might never be 100% effective or might not have enough of a takeup.

tobefrank321

i_surge wrote: »

It only goes to show why we can't entertain this half baked idea of "living with the virus"

Time to kill it

How do you propose to kill it? And that means permanently.

It can't be done especially as we share a border with the north who have a different approach.

KindOfIrish

i_surge wrote: »

It only goes to show why we can't entertain this half baked idea of "living with the virus"

Time to kill it

And the only way to kill it is to lift all restrictions and lockdowns.

Feria40

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Any plan is better than no plan. At least with a plan you have control and you have an exit strategy.

We have no exit strategy.

We're waiting on a vaccine that could come next year or might never be 100% effective or might not have enough of a takeup.

A plan of sorts maybe. But the underlying questions remain why did the experts in NPHET not foresee the meat plant issue when it has been happening around Europe for months. Or did they foresee it and were just ignored?

Happy4all

Don't panic. FF are back in charge.

KindOfIrish

Happy4all wrote: »

Don't panic. FF are back in charge.

FF are my only hope to buy a house with no mortgage. I did not have enough money last time they ruined our economy, but now I am ready!

Feria40

I know social media platforms are hardly a perfect bellwether for the mood of a nation but there does seem to be some shift this evening.

Instead of the usual Facebook/journal meltdowns of:

- do as you are told
- shut the borders
- foreign holidays will kill us all

People are finally asking why why and why was the meat plant and DP centre issue not obvious and dealt with before now.

NPHET and the then government managed to get a free pass on the nursing home scandal but I think it will be less easy to hoodwink people going forward.

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

I know social media platforms are hardly a perfect bellwether for the mood of a nation but there does seem to be some shift this evening.

Instead of the usual Facebook/journal meltdowns of:

- do as you are told
- shut the borders
- foreign holidays will kill us all

People are finally asking why why and why was the meat plant and DP centre issue not obvious and dealt with before now.

NPHET and the then government managed to get a free pass on the nursing home scandal but I think it will be less easy to hoodwink people going forward.

This week it is meatplants, it will be something else next week with no end in sight. Rolling lockdowns are unfair and ineffective.

Get serious about killing the virus, it is the only solution.

Feria40

i_surge wrote: »

This week it is meatplants, it will be something else next week with no end in sight. Rolling lockdowns are unfair and ineffective.

Get serious about killing the virus, it is the only solution.

Or eh maybe forward plan a little..? For some reason the rest of Europe got hit 3 to 4 weeks in advance of us both in the Spring and now in the last month.. surely this affords us the opportunity to oh I dunno learn some lessons from our neighbors... Meat plants, DP centres and indeed bars and restaurants that don't play by the rules.

There are only so many workplaces where people work cheek by jowl.

Stop with the kill the virus nonsense please you acknowledged yourself a few posts back that it was pie in the sky

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

Or eh maybe forward plan a little..? For some reason the rest of Europe got hit 3 to 4 weeks in advance of us both in the Spring and now in the last month.. surely this affords us the opportunity to oh I dunno learn some lessons from our neighbors... Meat plants, DP centres and indeed bars and restaurants that don't play by the rules.

There are only so many workplaces where people work cheek by jowl.

Stop with the kill the virus nonsense please you acknowledged yourself a few posts back that it was pie in the sky

Very doable but pie in the sky in that sense that small unambitious minds dominate and won't take hard action when it needed. European mediocrity. Continue making a bollox of everything...meat plants, schools, loss of public patience for few months more until we are properly between a rock and hard place.

I have a question? What was the scene around the border at the strictest height of lockdown?

Bit cynical

i_surge wrote: »

Very doable but pie in the sky in that sense that small unambitious minds dominate and won't take hard action when it needed. European mediocrity.

In fairness you still haven't said how you would go about sealing the border with the north or persuading the DUP to sever ties with mainland UK, something they would not have the power to do legally even if they wanted.

Feria40

Bit cynical wrote: »

In fairness you still haven't said how you would go about sealing the border with the north or persuading the DUP to sever ties with mainland UK, something they would not have the power to do legally even if they wanted.

Oh darling you are just so small minded!

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

In fairness you still haven't said how you would go about sealing the border with the north or persuading the DUP to sever ties with mainland UK, something they would not have the power to do legally even if they wanted.

And I have said 10 times that it is a small problem in the context of an international pandemic. Ye seem more afraid of the DUP than the virus that screwed up an entire year for most people and doesn't seem to be ffffing off like it was hoped.

I have also said that the border could remain open if you went to town on all the other available measures. Imperfect but would get you to a much better position.

Anyone have some facts on how much border crossing was happening at peak lockdown?

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

And I have said 10 times that it is a small problem in the context of an international pandemic. Ye seem more afraid of the DUP than the virus that screwed up an entire year for most people and doesn't seem to be ffffing off like it was hoped.

I have also said that the border could remain open if you went to town on all the other available measures. Imperfect but would get you to a much better position.

Anyone have some facts on how much border crossing was happening at peak lockdown?

I'm beginning to doubt you even live in Ireland. Have you ever been to the border? Some people actually have houses where their kitchen is in the Republic and their bedroom is in the North and you're asking how much border crossing was happening at peak lockdown.

You don't seem to have a clue who the DUP are either.

i_surge

aido79 wrote: »

I'm beginning to doubt you even live in Ireland. Have you ever been to the border? Some people actually have houses where their kitchen is in the Republic and their bedroom is in the North and you're asking how much border crossing was happening at peak lockdown.

You don't seem to have a clue who the DUP are either.

I am aware but it isn't an area I know a lot about. I don't need to, my principles are sound.

Can you answer my question about mobility during lockdown?

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

I am aware but it isn't an area I know a lot about. I don't need to, my principles are sound.

Can you answer my question about mobility during lockdown?

How do you mean your principles are sound? You haven't a clue what you are talking about so how can your principles be sound?

Northern Ireland didn't have the same travel restrictions as the Republic so while people in the Republic could only travel 5kms in the first phase of the lockdown anyone crossing from the north could travel as far as they liked as the restrictions didn't apply to them.

Have you ever been to the border?

i_surge

aido79 wrote: »

How do you mean your principles are sound? You haven't a clue what you are talking about so how can your principles be sound?

Northern Ireland didn't have the same travel restrictions as the Republic so while people in the Republic could only travel 5kms in the first phase of the lockdown anyone crossing from the north could travel as far as they liked as the restrictions didn't apply to them.

Have you ever been to the border?

I spent a month studying the virus at the start. Mathematically, it all boils down to a single factor...the degree of social mixing. Those sort of principles! The virus doesn't give a **** about arbitrary lines in the ground imposed by humans, thus neither do I.

It is a different attitude. Blue sky or grey clouds. We can agree to differ, your points are valid.

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

I spent a month studying the virus at the start. Mathematically, it all boils down to a single factor...the degree of social mixing. Those sort of principles! The virus doesn't give a **** about arbitrary lines in the ground imposed by humans, thus neither do I.

It is a different attitude. Blue sky or grey clouds. We can agree to differ, your points are valid.

You might want to educate yourself on those arbitrary lines on the ground if you are going to continue spouting nonsense about an all island approach which you haven't the first clue of the difficulties in implementing it.

By the way when I asked if you'd been to the border it was a trick question. There is no border. One minute you are driving and the road signs are in km/h, the next minute they are in mph. That's the only way you know you've crossed the border most of the time. Closing it would be impossible.

almostover

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Any plan is better than no plan. At least with a plan you have control and you have an exit strategy.

We have no exit strategy.

We're waiting on a vaccine that could come next year or might never be 100% effective or might not have enough of a takeup.

Hate to break it to you, there is no exit strategy. Not until we can vaccinate people. This is our new normal for the foreseeable. Time to make peace with that fact

i_surge

aido79 wrote: »

You might want to educate yourself on those arbitrary lines on the ground if you are going to continue spouting nonsense about an all island approach which you haven't the first clue of the difficulties in implementing it.

By the way when I asked if you'd been to the border it was a trick question. There is no border. One minute you are driving and the road signs are in km/h, the next minute they are in mph. That's the only way you know you've crossed the border most of the time. Closing it would be impossible.

Everything is impossible to those who cant see outside their own bubble.

The county borders are also invisible. 3 were locked down this evening. Compliance is assumed and the majority follow it.

Every measure is a step in a right direction. They are additive, marginal gains strategies won many Olympic gold medals for the UK.

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

Everything is impossible to those who cant see outside their own bubble.

The county borders are also invisible. 3 were locked down this evening. Compliance is assumed and the majority follow it.

Every measure is a step in a right direction. They are additive, marginal gains strategies won many Olympic gold medals for the UK.

Those 3 counties are in the Republic. I presume you understand that much?
The Irish government has no control over the 6 counties in Northern Ireland so can't stop people leaving or entering them.
Do your own research if you need it simplified further.

What has Olympic gold medals for the UK got to do with any of this?

i_surge

aido79 wrote: »

Those 3 counties are in the Republic. I presume you understand that much?
The Irish government has no control over the 6 counties in Northern Ireland so can't stop people leaving or entering them.
Do your own research if you need it simplified further.

What has Olympic gold medals for the UK got to do with any of this?

I'm tired of explaining the same basic things to you over and over. You focus on the obstacles, I focus on the opportunities, simply a personality difference.

Marginal gains, you do loads of small things in the right direction, no stone unturned and it adds up to a decent performance improvement.

I already know and accept there are serious issues to be overcome, no excuse for not trying.

We are also facing a serious issue right now, the biggest of our lifetimes. That's it. Signing out from this discussion.

kippy

People need to wake up a bit. The only solution is a complete closure of all borders and a heavily enforced lockdown for 3 weeks, with a continued border closure until a vaccine is found OR the acceptance that anything else is going to involve either localised lockdowns and the nation to generally continue to adhere to best practices.

While the virus is at the levels it is currently at, one can see that schools may return for a week or two but will be minefields when it comes to transmission and lots of localised shutdowns will occur early on. The nearest mention of symptoms will involve chaos in schools.

As some have said we are less than 6 months into this pandemic with many more to go unfortunately given our national options.

aido79

i_surge wrote: »

I'm tired of explaining the same basic things to you over and over. You focus on the obstacles, I focus on the opportunities, simply a personality difference.

Marginal gains, you do loads of small things in the right direction, no stone unturned and it adds up to a decent performance improvement.

I already know and accept there are serious issues to be overcome, no excuse for not trying.

We are also facing a serious issue right now, the biggest of our lifetimes. That's it. Signing out from this discussion.

You're looking for some textbook approach where everyone is on the same team. The DUP are a big obstacle who will never take any advice from the Irish government. They take their orders and advice from London and that won't change even if it goes against all logic and your studies of the virus.
We could spend months or years doing our best to eradicate the virus from the Republic but if people are still arriving into Belfast and crossing into the Republic there is always a chance of cases getting into the Republic.

I'd love to see an all island approach and I think it's by far the most logical thing but I understand enough to know it will never happen. If you are willing to do some research on politics in Northern Ireland I'm sure you will reach the same conclusion.

dere34

We need to take the EU/international border in Ireland and dump it between England and Scotland. Ireland would handle this better united and Scotland independent.

fly_agaric

i_surge wrote: »

I'm tired of explaining the same basic things to you over and over. You focus on the obstacles, I focus on the opportunities, simply a personality difference.

Marginal gains, you do loads of small things in the right direction, no stone unturned and it adds up to a decent performance improvement.

I already know and accept there are serious issues to be overcome, no excuse for not trying.

We are also facing a serious issue right now, the biggest of our lifetimes. That's it. Signing out from this discussion.

Oh we can try alright + do much better than we have done as regards inwards travel and that should keep cases lower.

However as suggested by many others, if you look into it a bit you'll see NI is one issue that is beyond Ireland's ken or ability to resolve, as it has been for pushing on for 1 century now. Without the whole island on board at least, we cannot succeed at "elimination" and get the entire benefits of a success with that policy. We will still need some restrictions I think + constant checking for new outbreaks/spread in the "community" etc.

You keep going on about Asia (our "betters" as you put it).
Your concept of "well, just do it" (do what exactly about NI (UK), build the wall, conscript people to the army to [try to] police the border, threaten them with an invasion!? :pac: ) + hang any human consequences is a bit authoritarian.

i_surge

fly_agaric wrote: »

Oh we can try alright + do much better than we have done as regards inwards travel and that should keep cases lower.

However as suggested by many others, if you look into it a bit you'll see NI is one issue that is beyond Ireland's ken or ability to resolve, as it has been for pushing on for 1 century now. Without the whole island on board at least, we cannot succeed at "elimination" and get the entire benefits of a success with that policy. We will still need some restrictions I think + constant checking for new outbreaks/spread in the "community" etc.

You keep going on about Asia (our "betters" as you put it).
Your concept of "well, just do it" (do what exactly about UK/NI?) + hang any human consequences is a bit authoritarian.

It is libertarian...do what is needed to maximise freedom in the long run.

At least sit down at a table, start some process of diplomacy and have a serious discussion with NI powers about options. We should all be in this together regardless of creed or politics.

fly_agaric

i_surge wrote: »

It is libertarian...do what is needed to maximise freedom in the long run.

At least sit down at a table, start some process of diplomacy and have a serious discussion with NI powers about options. We should all be in this together regardless of creed or politics.

As far as I know (from media reports etc over last few months) they are talking to each other regularly at least (better than nothing), but there is obviously no agreement on having a unified approach. The only joint project that comes to mind is the mobile phone application (applications are interoperable + we are sharing the database/positive test keys).

MadYaker

My plan is to open a bottle of whiskey because al the beer is gone