Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hermy

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Why can't trucks drive through France on a Sunday?

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Why can't we then decide tomorrow to ban trawlers fishing on a Sunday in our waters?

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What's stopping them expanding it to decide what planes fly over France on a Sunday?

Consequences!

And that's Brexit in a nutshell - the ignorance, wilful or otherwise, of consequences.

Those who promote Brexit would have you believe that any decision taken in order to get Brexit done is devoid of consequences.

Ireland could ban trawling on Sundays but the wit to foresee the consequences of such a ban would inform such a decision.

The dire consequences of Brexit were foreseen and are now coming to pass and yet despite this the Brexiters plough on regardless.

But maybe when these consequences hit home and hit home hard the UK will hit the reset button but I'm not confident about that.

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like the big u-turn is around the corner,

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1310115122283778049?s=20

According to the FT there isn't an appetite among some in cabinet for no-deal and the chaos it would bring. It will be interesting to see what happens as they only have 2 and a bit weeks to go until those deadlines Johnson set. This is the problem if you paint yourself into a corner, as we saw with May and her ridiculous red lines.

It's a bit late now though, right? Other than just accepthing the draft deal the EU published earlier in the year, there is not much chance of a deal this side of christmas. They would have to go for an extension to avoid chaos on Jan 1st at this point.

J Mysterio

Hermy wrote: »

But maybe when these consequences hit home and hit home hard the UK will hit the reset button but I'm not confident about that.

There is no reset button! The UK will not be in a position to enjoy such special arrangements as they had hitherto! If they have a change of heart, there will be more required from them, I'm sure.

Sam Russell

J Mysterio wrote: »

There is no reset button! The UK will not be in a position to enjoy such special arrangements as they had hitherto! If they have a change of heart, there will be more required from them, I'm sure.

I do not think they will be a welcome back as a full member of the EU for a very long time - not after the IM bill and effectively giving the EU the finger. De Gaul was right - it should have been NON for ever - they are not fit to be members as they do not accept the basic tenets of the EU. The EU will continue to prosper without them.

Perhaps if Scotland manages to break free, then they will be able to join, but without any of the UK exceptions. England would be much weaker without Scotland. And if Scotland leaves, can NI be far behind?

England would need significant changes constitutionally and legally before it could even apply, but I think the 'NON' might still be on French lips for some time.

woejus

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Why can't trucks drive through France on a Sunday? Whatever about French drivers, France has no right whatsoever to dictate the movement of foreign drivers.

How do you square this with the 5+ axle ban in Dublin city?

Sam Russell

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Why can't trucks drive through France on a Sunday? Whatever about French drivers, France has no right whatsoever to dictate the movement of foreign drivers.

Have you been in rural France on a Sunday? Nothing is open. Nothing.

France has every right to control traffic as they see fit. The UK used to have Sunday trading laws up until recently.

NI also have very strict Sunday opening laws - even public parks cannot open on a Sunday - even for foreigners.

L1011

France is not the only country in Europe with similar rules, btw.

Hermy

J Mysterio wrote: »

There is no reset button! The UK will not be in a position to enjoy such special arrangements as they had hitherto! If they have a change of heart, there will be more required from them, I'm sure.

By reset, I mean a significant change in their thinking from the current mindset that has them eagerly hurtling towards disaster.

As to their ever being considered for EU membership in the future that's a whole other ball game.

Leroy42

Its almost as if, even though they are members of the EU, the French can put in their own laws.

VinLieger

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its almost as if, even though they are members of the EU, the French can put in their own laws.

How dare they flout their sovereignty in such a way.

Zubeneschamali

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It's a bit late now though, right? Other than just accepthing the draft deal the EU published earlier in the year

Yep, their bluff has been called, no appetite for the consequences, so fold their hand, and take the deal offered months ago.

But make lots of noise about getting the best by being tough etc. and claim victory.

The Tory press print Boris doing V for victory, everyone is happy (until the chaos actually starts)

But the IM Bill is there. How can that be squared away?

Zubeneschamali

Deleted User wrote: »

But the IM Bill is there. How can that be squared away?

Bin it.

CelticRambler

Seeing as this thread has taken a bit of a continental slalom over the last number of hours, how about this shocking example of a non-EU electorate exercising their sovereignty in favour of maintaining alignment with the non-elected bureaucrats in Brussels:

Swiss voters on Sunday overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to limit the free movement of people and immigration from the European Union.

Public broadcaster SRF projected that 63% of voters had voted against the motion, versus 37% who turned out in support.

Sunday's referendum had been initiated by the populist Swiss People's Party (SVP), which said that current regulations allow for an average of 75,000 EU citizens per year to enter, leading to overpopulation, rising housing costs and a strained welfare system.

Sure they're probably all high on Milka and don't know what hell they've unleashed, what with all those bilateral trade deals with the EU being reinforced and everything ... :rolleyes:

Janey Mack

Some of you will be familiar with Sir Ivan Rogers a former UK ambassador to the EU. Great audio interview from him here (if you have an hour to spare). Some old ground but lots to think about in it.

https://youtu.be/AiPROO-YBek

He mentions how Brexiteers risk losing control of their revolution (a revolution among the elite)
and says Torys are questioning whether Downing Street has the competence to deal with the complex policy decisions that are needed. Sorry if this has Already been posted.

Igotadose

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Bin it.

Howzitwork in the UK? Afaik two readings so far? Can itbe withdrawn completely?

Sam Russell

Igotadose wrote: »

Howzitwork in the UK? Afaik two readings so far? Can itbe withdrawn completely?

I cannot think why not.

It has to go to the Lords where it will be treated to huge opposition. Possibly amended to death, removing all the bits that break international law, and then sent back with its bottom smacked.

The HoC will just reinsert it back to how it was and send it back again.

Rinse and repeat.

Or they could just withdraw it.

How does the Kent border for trucks (the Kermit licences) fit with the Internal Market as envisioned in the bill? Surely 'unfettered access' is being denied.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like the big u-turn is around the corner,

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1310115122283778049?s=20

According to the FT there isn't an appetite among some in cabinet for no-deal and the chaos it would bring. It will be interesting to see what happens as they only have 2 and a bit weeks to go until those deadlines Johnson set. This is the problem if you paint yourself into a corner, as we saw with May and her ridiculous red lines.

Article is a bit vague though. I thought it would have some strong hints as to why Johnson was moving towards a deal, but there's not actually much....it's mostly speculation.

Igotadose

Sam Russell wrote: »

I cannot think why not.

It has to go to the Lords where it will be treated to huge opposition. Possibly amended to death, removing all the bits that break international law, and then sent back with its bottom smacked.

The HoC will just reinsert it back to how it was and send it back again.

Rinse and repeat.

Or they could just withdraw it.

How does the Kent border for trucks (the Kermit licences) fit with the Internal Market as envisioned in the bill? Surely 'unfettered access' is being denied.

But but.... Didn't the EU give the UK until Thursday to withdraw the offending clauses? So, no matter what fumbling goes on the EU can still bring some proceedings against the UK?

Tell me how

Some good news coming out of Switzerland.

Switzerland referendum: Voters reject end to free movement with EU - projection


The SVP has used similar arguments to Brexiteers about having more control over immigration in a country which they say is becoming more overcrowded and expensive as a result.

But net migration into Switzerland is actually falling at the moment, and there is a sense voters are becoming weary of the party's anti-immigration message.

A resounding yes to free movement of people could strengthen Brussels's hand with London, and be a signal to the UK of just what kinds of compromises might be needed to agree a free-trade deal with the EU.

Roanmore

Not sure if this has been reported in here?
Ford Bridgend closing after 40 years.
Voted for Brexit and elected a Tory MP for the first time in decades.

Normally on the Twitter feed you would have Brexiteers jumping in blaming everything else except Brexit. Not seeing many (if any) here.


https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1310227305944547330

Roanmore

Roanmore wrote: »

Not sure if this has been reported in here?
Ford Bridgend closing after 40 years.
Voted for Brexit and elected a Tory MP for the first time in decades.

Normally on the Twitter feed you would have Brexiteers jumping in blaming everything else except Brexit. Not seeing many (if any) here.


https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1310227305944547330

This was announced last year, the engine plant became surplus to requirements, more likely due to the change in the car industry than Brexit.

Guy:Incognito

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like the big u-turn is around the corner,

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1310115122283778049?s=20

According to the FT there isn't an appetite among some in cabinet for no-deal and the chaos it would bring. It will be interesting to see what happens as they only have 2 and a bit weeks to go until those deadlines Johnson set. This is the problem if you paint yourself into a corner, as we saw with May and her ridiculous red lines.

Do all the hardliner brexiteers that stick to "brexit means brexit" and insisting they voted for a no deal all along and thats what they wanted, now have to backtrack if theres a deal?

McGiver

Sam Russell wrote:

The HoC will just reinsert it back to how it was and send it back again. Rinse and repeat.

This is where it ends. The HoL cannot return it again then i.e. it would go through then.

fash

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Do all the hardliner brexiteers that stick to "brexit means brexit" and insisting they voted for a no deal all along and thats what they wanted, now have to backtrack if theres a deal?

No they'll howl at betrayal.

VinLieger

fash wrote: »

No they'll howl at betrayal.

The EU tricked/bullied us into it etc etc

Sam Russell

VinLieger wrote: »

The EU tricked/bullied us into it etc etc

It was a dreadful level of deceit for the EU to rely on the UK Gov not to bother reading the Withdrawal Agreement, and slip in a few tricks like the border in the Irish sea to guarantee an open border on the island of Ireland.

I wonder if the UK Gov noticed that in a 'No Deal' scenario, the UK woud have to do customs declarations and pay tariffs, and VAT, and also to have certs of origin, and lots of certifications.

Nah, the EU are honest and they would not be so devious, would they?

Not sure about the UK though.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

This was announced last year, the engine plant became surplus to requirements, more likely due to the change in the car industry than Brexit.

True.


Brexit could be the start of death by a thousand cuts if there isn't a good trade deal.

Every few years new car models come out. And there there is an internal competition between the assembly lines in different plants in different countries. And don't forget that Turkey is in the EU customs union and making as many vehicles as the UK, including the Ford Transits.

Foreign owners will have to balance how much they can blackmail out of the UK government vs political repercussions of possible job cuts back home.

Similar for other industries.


So far the Japanese have OK'd EU parts in UK cars under rules of origin. But that's because they have factories in the UK and free trade with the EU.

Other car importing countries may not rollover this major concession from EU trade deals to new UK ones.

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This was announced last year, the engine plant became surplus to requirements, more likely due to the change in the car industry than Brexit.

Your right Dolan. It's for that reason Tesla went to Germany rather than the UK with their latest giga factory.

Oh wait. No that was Brexit actually..

BlitzKrieg

I lived for 3 months in Bridgend while working on a animated production, I completely get why they voted for Brexit, I was even living there just a year after the referendum. I'd say it's like living in one of those not small enough to be tourist spot but also not big enough to support its industrial sector towns. So it makes sense why they feel so forgotten, especially being in the shadow of Cardiff.