Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

I lived for 3 months in Bridgend while working on a animated production, I completely get why they voted for Brexit, I was even living there just a year after the referendum. I'd say it's like living in one of those not small enough to be tourist spot but also not big enough to support its industrial sector towns. So it makes sense why they feel so forgotten, especially being in the shadow of Cardiff.

it’s illogical being in the shadow of Cardiff has nothing to do with the EU.
It’s not going to solve that issue for them.
But yes it’s typical of the mindset that this clean break brexit utopia will solve all their problems.

BlitzKrieg

20silkcut wrote: »

it’s illogical being in the shadow of Cardiff has nothing to do with the EU.
It’s not going to solve that issue for them.
But yes it’s typical of the mindset that this clean break brexit utopia will solve all their problems.

I didnt say they were forgotten by the EU

Strazdas

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

I lived for 3 months in Bridgend while working on a animated production, I completely get why they voted for Brexit, I was even living there just a year after the referendum. I'd say it's like living in one of those not small enough to be tourist spot but also not big enough to support its industrial sector towns. So it makes sense why they feel so forgotten, especially being in the shadow of Cardiff.

Neglected by Westminster of course, nothing whatsoever to do with the EU.

It's some brainwashing that Leave crowd did on the electorate to convince them that somehow Brussels was responsible for people being poor, not the Tories. And then the same people gave Johnson an 80 seat majority.

They're in for some reckoning in the next year or two. Their areas will be decimated by Brexit and with no EU to blame.

fash

Strazdas wrote: »

They're in for some reckoning in the next year or two. Their areas will be decimated by Brexit and with no EU to blame.

I don't understand how people think the EU won't be blamed. The Brexiters /Brexitories are going to continue to blame the EU for everything.
There may be a slight respite if Johnson brings back his "amazing deal" - but as with the withdrawal Agreement, it will all kick off again shortly thereafter.
Why would he not want to blame the EU? Why would the population not want to hear that the EU is to blame?

Going Strong

fash wrote: »

I don't understand how people think the EU won't be blamed. The Brexiters /Brexitories are going to continue to blame the EU for everything.
There may be a slight respite if Johnson brings back his "amazing deal" - but as with the withdrawal Agreement, it will all kick off again shortly thereafter.
Why would he not want to blame the EU? Why would the population not want to hear that the EU is to blame?

Add to that the Schadenfreude of the "Metropolitan Elite" being dragged down to the likes of Bridgend's level thanks to Brexit. The Culture War will still play a big part in this.

Nody

fash wrote: »

I don't understand how people think the EU won't be blamed. The Brexiters /Brexitories are going to continue to blame the EU for everything.
There may be a slight respite if Johnson brings back his "amazing deal" - but as with the withdrawal Agreement, it will all kick off again shortly thereafter.
Why would he not want to blame the EU? Why would the population not want to hear that the EU is to blame?

I agree they will blame the EU but it's harder to get it to stick when the PM has taken them out and got "Brexit done" and UK is no longer in EU "taking orders from Brussels". They now suddenly need to explain why even after the glorious Brexit the Unicorns and land of honey did not come as promised.

54and56

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

they have no right to limit use of their highways to anyone else.

The response to your statement is hiding in plain sight.

If the French authorities want to protect their citizens on a Sunday from HGV's on their road infrastructure that is their prerogative.

It's no different to Dublin city council banning deliveries during certain times of the day etc.

It's the essence of sovereignty.

murphaph

I wonder how many trolls on the farm in Leningrad are getting their P45s this morning after their failure to secure the right result in Switzerland. Serious, if obviously rhetorical question.

I am absolutely delighted with the pragmatism shown by our Swiss friends yesterday. If it had gone the other way I can guarantee you the headlines in the GB rags would mostly contain the word Swexit! to reinforce the belief that they had chosen the correct path.

Gerry T

You mention flying over a country, this also requires a permit which can be charged for. The summer of 2007, 129 countries were parties to a treaty to allow fly overs including the USA, India, and Australia. However, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, and China never joined, and Canada left.
Maybe the UK will leave this as well, take back control i say !

54and56

Deleted User wrote: »

But the IM Bill is there. How can that be squared away?

Quite easily.

BoJo & Co will say they introduced it as a protection against the EU's extreme interpretation of the WA. Whilst this isn't actually true they can just as easily bin it by saying now they have reached an FTA deal with the EU there's no longer a need for the IM bill.

20silkcut

Going Strong wrote: »

Add to that the Schadenfreude of the "Metropolitan Elite" being dragged down to the likes of Bridgend's level thanks to Brexit. The Culture War will still play a big part in this.

There was a guy on question time last week blaming the EU for not buying their fish when they take back their fishing waters.

Sam Russell

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder how many trolls on the farm in Leningrad are getting their P45s this morning after their failure to secure the right result in Switzerland. Serious, if obviously rhetorical question.

I am absolutely delighted with the pragmatism shown by our Swiss friends yesterday. If it had gone the other way I can guarantee you the headlines in the GB rags would mostly contain the word Swexit! to reinforce the belief that they had chosen the correct path.

My sister lives in Switzerland and said the last one got through by mistake.

Normally in a referendum, their equivalent of our referendum commission recommends which way they should vote and they normally do. But in the last one that passed, they did not give a clear recommendation and it got passed by accident, and the Swiss Government watered it all down so it did not upset the EU too much (but it did upset the EU) and now all is OK again.

Very pragmatic and independent are the Swiss.

Sam Russell

20silkcut wrote: »

There was a guy on question time last week blaming the EU for not buying their fish when they take back their fishing waters.

I wonder will he complain when Nissan cars are not bought in the EU because they are too expensive.

CelticRambler

The Guardian today has an article about EU citizens "settled" in the UK having problems proving their status to third parties, banks in particular, because the government has decided that the whole process should be carried out online, with no hard copy available ... and promising that all will be well, trust us, we will get around to joining the dots in due course. :rolleyes:

The Home Office said its policy was part of a move to digitalise the entire immigration service. “Physical documents expire, become invalid, or can be lost, stolen or tampered with,” a spokesperson said.

“A digital status is more secure and ensures that EU citizens who are granted status in the UK can constantly access and securely share proof of their status. We see no reason why any institution should not accept a migrant’s online information as evidence of immigration status and will be launching an extensive package of communications to ensure individuals, employers, landlords and other third parties are fully aware of the move to digital.”

The settlement scheme grants EU citizens the right to remain in the UK after Brexit. Unlike other foreign nationals, they are not provided with a biometric residency permit proving their status.

Instead they have to access the Home Office’s online database each time they need to produce evidence of eligibility.

The process, which requires applicants to have a smartphone and reliable internet access, is part of a government plan to phase out paper permits and make the entire immigration service digital.

But it means those with settled status and service providers have to negotiate a sequence of logins, emails and share codes to confirm their eligibility.

Brexit, Westminster and an IT project. What could possibly go wrong? :pac:

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please do not just paste tweets here. Post deleted.

ambro25

CelticRambler wrote: »

The Guardian today has an article about EU citizens "settled" in the UK having problems proving their status to third parties, banks in particular, because the government has decided that the whole process should be carried out online, with no hard copy available ... and promising that all will be well, trust us, we will get around to joining the dots in due course

That was always going to happen, given the decade's worth of hostile environment policies which preceded Brexit.

I say this as an EU27inUK, who was openly wondering about the likelihood and ease of securing new mortgage deals with UK banks post-Brexit (as I had been doing with our UK properties every few years) in online debates in 2017, prior to Brexoding.

And who had long witnessed first-hand (screen and procedure shoulder-surfing) my Mrs, then an SIA-accredited vetting officer, running time and again into such hostile environment policies, as she was trying to vet security companies' (foreign born-) applicant-employees, so as to clear their British employers' liabilities under these policies.

It's what Tory governments had been doing steadfastly since 2010: cut back public service involvement and investment (HM border force, in context), put the onus and liabilities on the dectection of illegals on the private sector (would-be landlords and employers). Given the Tories' form and where public opinion was being steered, there was never any reason to suspect, that the Tories would not extend the scope of these practices to EU27 once fully clear of EU.

In that context, digital-only is much preferable, in terms of future potential for deniability, to official hardcopy evidence that can 'survive' any and all ICT mishaps, errors, re-parameterising and outright deletions/cancellations under political whims and other wills of the people.

reslfj

Gerry T wrote: »

You mention flying over a country, this also requires a permit which can be charged for. The summer of 2007, 129 countries were parties to a treaty to allow fly overs including the USA, India, and Australia. However, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, and China never joined, and Canada left.
Maybe the UK will leave this as well, take back control i say !

The original Chicago Convention from December 1944 (ratified 1947) allows 'flying over' and allows payments.
It's signed by the US, "The UK of GB and Northern Ireland", Ireland, (liberated) France, Belgium - and even some of the still occupied European countries e.g. Netherlands, Poland, Denmark, Norway

https://www.icao.int/publications/Documents/7300_orig.pdf

Landing rights for scheduled flights are not included except for fuel and repair.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedoms_of_the_air

Lars

PS! The EP has asked for direct flights to be outside the "no deal, no mini-deals" rule.

An Ciarraioch

Sefcovic, the EU member of the Joint Committee, has published the summary of today's proceedings - citizens' rights arose, as did Cyprus and Gibraltar, but the main focus was the Irish Protocol, with Britain yet to work on SPS, NI VAT, and IT for customs, and the IM Bill the principal bone of contention:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_20_1766

Enzokk

Here is Tony Connelly on the meeting,

'No indication' UK will withdraw Internal Market Bill - EU Commission

He focuses on the IM Bill and whether the UK will withdraw it or the clauses within it that is causing the problems for the EU,

The UK has declined to say it will withdraw legislation that breaches the Northern Ireland Protocol, according to a vice-president of the European Commission following a key meeting of EU and UK officials today.

Maroš Šefčovič, the EU's representative on the EU-UK Joint Committee, said he had repeated the EU's insistence that the legislation be withdrawn.

However, he told reporters that he was given "no indication" from his opposite number Michael Gove that the UK was prepared to withdraw the contentious elements of the Internal Market Bill.

Mr Šefčovič would not be drawn on whether the EU will take legal action against the UK if the legislation is not withdrawn by Wednesday of this week, the deadline set by Mr Šefčovič earlier this month.

He also reports that Frost wanted the EU and UK to move to the tunnel early in the negotiations. As to why this is, it could be that they are willing to compromise but don't want to give the ERG a heads up to cry about it. That is starting to make sense to me, although I am just as likely to be very wrong on that.

It is understood that during informal discussions the UK's chief negotiator David Frost pushed his opposite number Michel Barnier for the process to enter, as soon as possible, the so-called tunnel, the final period of sealed negotiations preceding a future relationship treaty.

However, two senior sources have told RTÉ News that Mr Barnier refused to agree to such an intensification for two reasons.

First, the EU believes the UK has still not made sufficient concessions on the so-called level playing field, including the question of state aid, and fisheries.

Secondly, Brussels believes the deadline is the end of October, not 14 October, the deadline that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set, which is when EU leaders will meet for a summit.

ambro25

Quoted from An Ciarraioch's link above, and to be read in the context of my earlier post above:

Turning to the situation in the United Kingdom, while acknowledging efforts to register all EU citizens, I have raised our serious concern over the UK settlement scheme granting new resident status.

In practice, it distinguishes between different categories of EU citizens with the same residence status – as such, it undermines legal certainty, also affecting their rights. We cannot have two classes of beneficiaries of the Withdrawal Agreement.

Where immigration is concerned, and both intended and unintended consequences of government policies for all those likely to be caught in the deadly cross-fire of political expediency and opportunistic populism, you couldn't trust Brits as far as you could throw them 4 years ago, and still less today.

Not that you can trust that many of the EU27 governments on that front, either. Because pragmatically, for all of Verhofstadt's signalling since 2016, those caught on either side of the Brexit/FoM interface, EU27inUK like UKinEU27, have been sh@t on from a great height for 4 years just the same in the end.

Of course, that's not a popular viewpoint amongst the FPBE crowd, yet it's pretty uniform amongst those experiencing it at the coalface, in the UK or the EU. I guess truth always hurts, irrespective of one's debating side.

An Ciarraioch

Mick Mulvaney threading a fine line in his statement today:

https://www.thejournal.ie/simon-coveney-mick-mulvaney-brexit-washington-us-5216538-sep2020/comment-9151658

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

He also reports that Frost wanted the EU and UK to move to the tunnel early in the negotiations. As to why this is, it could be that they are willing to compromise but don't want to give the ERG a heads up to cry about it.

While, from Frost's point of view, that would be understandable to a certain extent, it's hardly likely to be of any reassurance to the EU. After the IMB shenanigans - not to mention all the fuss and palaver around May's WA - the EU is probably not in any mood to spend long days and nights thrashing things out in the tunnel, only to have their efforts rejected by the ERG or some other sect as soon as the details are made public.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

While, from Frost's point of view, that would be understandable to a certain extent, it's hardly likely to be of any reassurance to the EU. After the IMB shenanigans - not to mention all the fuss and palaver around May's WA - the EU is probably not in any mood to spend long days and nights thrashing things out in the tunnel, only to have their efforts rejected by the ERG or some other sect as soon as the details are made public.

Why would the EU pay more than lip service to a set of negotiations with a party who have shown such bad faith to date? They should just ask for legal texts based on the UK position to which they will give due regard, and by the way, when are the UK Gov dropping the IM Bill?

It can only be No Deal now.

10000maniacs

It looks like the English public are getting cold feet about Brexit. A bit late now that the horses have bolted.

A growing number of British people believe it was wrong for the UK to have voted to leave the EU, according to a new poll, which found that Brexit regret is at its highest level since the 2016 referendum.

A poll for YouGov of 1,623 British adults conducted last week, suggests that 50% now believe Britain was wrong to leave the European Union, the highest figure the polling company has recorded since it began asking the question.

By contrast, just 39% of people said that Britain was right to leave the EU.

The gap between those who still back leaving the EU and those who now believe it was wrong has grown by 8 points since the start of September.

Roanmore

39% is still a big number after the mess we've seen the last 2 - 3 years.
Probably a case of a lot of people refusing to say they got it wrong.

Leroy42

Roanmore wrote: »

39% is still a big number after the mess we've seen the last 2 - 3 years.
Probably a case of a lot of people refusing to say they got it wrong.

Or, they still don't think they have got it wrong. It is all the EU's fault, Remoaners, TM, Corbyn, Labour, etc etc. Once they are out, I mean really really out, not just out like they are now, then everything will sort itself out.

Enzokk

Roanmore wrote: »

39% is still a big number after the mess we've seen the last 2 - 3 years.
Probably a case of a lot of people refusing to say they got it wrong.

I don't know if you saw the video of Channel 4 News and the investigation into the targeting of voters in the US in 2016 by Cambridge Analytica,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIf5ELaOjOk

But the one clip where they are asking voters on their reaction to this news and how they specifically were targeted to not go out to vote. One of those interviewed state he didn't vote and it is shown he was targeted to not go out and vote. He is still adamant that he wasn't influenced by the adverts and it was his own decision not to go out and vote. They showed an ad before the clip that was used and he almost repeated exactly what the ad was trying to put across of Clinton.

The point is he didn't want to think he was influenced and I think he wasn't aware of the ad, but people don't want to think of themselves as being the ones that fall for this type of stuff. So 39% of people still believing in Brexit shouldn't be surprising at all, they probably do not want to think they are so easily manipulated by ads and Cambridge Analytica so will cling to the dream that was sold to them.

Professor Moriarty

Roanmore wrote: »

39% is still a big number after the mess we've seen the last 2 - 3 years.
Probably a case of a lot of people refusing to say they got it wrong.

Even more depressing, a poll from Deltapoll on September 25th:

If there was another referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, how would you vote?

Remain: 43%
Leave: 43%
Don't Know: 13%

10000maniacs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Even more depressing, a poll from Deltapoll on September 25th:

If there was another referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, how would you vote?

Remain: 43%
Leave: 43%
Don't Know: 13%

When they see only apples, potatoes, cabbages and turnips on Tesco's fresh food shelves twice the price that they were in 2020, the pound being devalued 30%, negative interest rates eating into their savings and unemployment at 1980 levels, they will soon forget about how much they hate the remainers.

Leroy42

10000maniacs wrote: »

When they see only apples, potatoes, cabbages and turnips on Tesco's fresh food shelves twice the price that they were in 2020, the pound being devalued 30%, negative interest rates eating into their savings and unemployment at 1980 levels, they will soon forget about how much they hate the remainers.

OR, they will simply blame the remainers for getting in the way of getting such an easy trade deal with the EU. My bet is that NI is going to come under serious negative commentary. Then, of course, the EU itself for 'punishing' the UK.