Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

10000maniacs wrote: »

I see the Tories threw the EU a few scraps today. LOL
They have put forward a "compromise" on fishing, and Brandon Lewis has said today there will be checks on Agrifoods between NI and GB.
The EU should hold out on everything until the Internal Market Bill is scrapped.

I think we'll see why the UK want to do everything in the tunnel- ERG types will be out calling this treason.

Sam Russell

10000maniacs wrote: »

I see the Tories threw the EU a few scraps today. LOL
They have put forward a "compromise" on fishing, and Brandon Lewis has said today there will be checks on Agrifoods between NI and GB.
The EU should hold out on everything until the Internal Market Bill is scrapped.

Is that fishy compromise equivalent to the EU allowing the extension to the finance trading in Euro denominated securities. Suits them and gives a little.

McGiver

ambro25 wrote: »

They need the catharsis of existing as a third country, with or without an FTA with the EU, for a few years at least. Only that, has any chance of precipitating the sort of deep political and socio-economic changes they so badly require.

Yes, but the problem with this is that the other possible outcome is a descent into fascism (i.e. a combo of oligarchic disaster capitalism and authoritarian state setup) a la Russia. I have seen this coming and with every passing month with the current UK regime I'm convinced more and more that this is where it could end.

Do you want to have a nuclear capable rogue fascist state as your neighbour?

Enzokk

I am so confused on what this UK government will do. They are all over the place and everyday a new story comes out that doesn't show you which direction they will go. Take the new story about them building asylum camps in Moldova, Morocco and Papua New Guinea,

https://twitter.com/PaulLewis/status/1311558899586170881?s=20

https://twitter.com/PaulLewis/status/1311559824988155904?s=20

This doesn't shout out deal to me. But then you read the stories about Johnson wanting a deal and it is so all over the place, probably expected from a government which doesn't have a clear idea of what they want other than Brexit.

Also, good luck to EU citizens in the UK after Brexit if there isn't a deal. If they are so craven that after the Windrush scandal that they still feel fit to mention "hostile environment" then it really isn't a big stretch to move the focus on EU nationals when they are under pressure when another crises strikes.

ambro25

McGiver wrote: »

Yes, but the problem with this is that the other possible outcome is a descent into fascism (i.e. a combo of oligarchic disaster capitalism and authoritarian state setup) a la Russia. I have seen this coming and with every passing month with the current UK regime I'm convinced more and more that this is where it could end.

Do you want to have a nuclear capable rogue fascist state as your neighbour?

That's not an alternative outcome: arguably, they are already there. How else do you expect the Tories to hang onto power from January onwards, whether Johnson stays PM or not?

As for wanting a nuclear-capable rogue fascist state as a neighbour (as in, not wanting that, of course)...noone ever gets everything they want in life.

I was happy in the UK 1994-2004 and 2008-2016, and just wanted normality to continue, so I could continue making my own peaceful and contributive way. Well.

Leroy42

Seems the oft discussed loss of financial industry jobs is starting to ramp up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-09-30/brexit-prompts-7-500-finance-jobs-1-6-trillion-to-leave-u-k?__twitter_impression=true

And this is with an extension to June 2022. I said at the time that was announced, of course claimed as a win by Brexiteers, that it was actually a massive warning sign that the EU were definitely moving away from London but just needed more time to sort everything out.

ilovesmybrick

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1311581354769944576?s=20

Looks like the EU is going ahead with legal action re. the UK bill. I don't see how there's any outcome at this stage bar no deal considering the UK's self imposed deadline in two weeks, and the EU deadline at the end of the month.

Zubeneschamali

McGiver wrote: »

Do you want to have a nuclear capable rogue fascist state as your neighbour?

No, but no-one can stop that from outside, the English people have to do it.

And if they are about to go there, I am glad they are outside the EU and not trying to lead a faction of fascists within the EU.

Hurrache

Well there you go, a formal letter signalling their legal action is on the way. Twitter is going to be fun this afternoon, I think this has completely taking any British commentators by surprise.

TexasTornado

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1311581354769944576?s=20

Looks like the EU is going ahead with legal action re. the UK bill. I don't see how there's any outcome at this stage bar no deal considering the UK's self imposed deadline in two weeks, and the EU deadline at the end of the month.

No deal hasn't been in any doubt since the election. The UK are going on their own terms. There's been a lot of wishful thinking and people unwilling to face up to what's about to happen but as much as i don't like the outcome that's democracy.

Hurrache

TexasTornado wrote: »

The UK are going on their own terms.

They aren't. They are leaving on the terms of what, and what isn't, involved in being a member of the EU.

Katya Adler ffs.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1311595959747571712

Nody

Hurrache wrote: »

They aren't. They are leaving on the terms of what, and what isn't, involved in being a member of the EU.

Katya Adler ffs.

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1311595959747571712

That's an interesting spin esp. as I think most people were expecting the legal action to be later rather than sooner for exactly the reasons claimed by her...

bobmalooka

Nody wrote: »

That's an interesting spin esp. as I think most people were expecting the legal action to be later rather than sooner for exactly the reasons claimed by her...

I may be wrong but wouldn’t significantly delaying legal action cause a risk of the Uk being able to argue that it was not a gross breach of the withdrawal agreement.
I.e. inaction on the matter suggests you accept it

Igotadose

Nody wrote: »

That's an interesting spin esp. as I think most people were expecting the legal action to be later rather than sooner for exactly the reasons claimed by her...

Don't agree. Sefcovic (sorry for spelling) gave them till the end of September. Well, the UK bumbled along and did nothing to the IMB. So, now the EU are rattling their legal sword. UK will continue to bumble till no deal.

Delaying only would've helped the UK. EU's been beyond patient at this point, the argument in favor of the IMB, as put forth by the UK, is that they didn't read up on what they're signing when they signed the WA. FFS. Life doesn't work that way.

mr_fegelien

Does anyone know why Sterling is so low against the Euro? Is it Brexit? Was buying a laptop on eBay and originally scared that the pounds would cost many euros but surprised it's only a €10 difference.

Will Sterling ever recover against the Euro?

Geuze

Before the vote, the euro was at about 70-80p.

The vote in 2016 caused sterling to fall from approx 75p to 85p.

Since then, it has typically stayed between 85-90p.


Could the GBP recover?

Back to 85p, yes, maybe, if there was a good FTA.


https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html

listermint

Geuze wrote: »

Before the vote, the euro was at about 70-80p.

The vote in 2016 caused sterling to fall from approx 75p to 85p.

Since then, it has typically stayed between 85-90p.


Could the GBP recover?

Back to 85p, yes, maybe, if there was a good FTA.


https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html

im of the opinion its been strong in 2018/2019 due to buying sterling from their own offshore territories. I think its been maintained artificially high and they are running out of rope. There is no planet where it remains this high with a no deal on the cards, I still think its overpriced. Theres some currency manipulation going on.

Sam Russell

GBP has lost 1p against the € today on Von Leyden's statement.

GBP 90.7p = at 7:30 this morning, now it is GBP 91.5 p = €1

Could well fall more.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

GBP has lost 1p against the € today on Von Leyden's statement.

GBP 90.7p = at 7:30 this morning, now it is GBP 91.5 p = €1

Could well fall more.

in 2015 it was at 0.74p. Something must have happened since then.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

in 2015 it was at 0.74p. Something must have happened since then.

A Tory Government.

Geuze

listermint wrote: »

im of the opinion its been strong in 2018/2019 due to buying sterling from their own offshore territories. I think its been maintained artificially high and they are running out of rope. There is no planet where it remains this high with a no deal on the cards, I still think its overpriced. Theres some currency manipulation going on.

During 2018/2019 the euro traded between 85-90p.

This was a large drop for GBP, from 70-75p in 2015.

Why do you say about GBP "it's been strong"??


When EMU started in 1999, the euro was worth 70, now that's 91p, so the pound has dropped by a lot.

Sam Russell

Geuze wrote: »

During 2018/2019 the euro traded between 85-90p.

This was a large drop for GBP, from 70-75p in 2015.

Why do you say about GBP "it's been strong"??


When EMU started in 1999, the euro was worth 70, now that's 91p, so the pound has dropped by a lot.

Prior to the devaluation in 1949, the GBP was worth $4, ($4.83 in 1939) but dropped to $2.80 until the devaluation under Harold Wilson in 1967 where it dropped to $2.40. It was floated in 1971, and has done since.

Various policies were followed, all tending to have unintended consequences leading to the GBP to be up and down like a whores knickers. In 1985 it was close to parity with the US$, and in 1989 it got to $1.70. This is very unstable.

Since the Brexit referendum was announced, it has been up and down - mainly down.

MBSnr

^^^
I know this is similar to the graphic posted earlier. It displays the average yearly rate going back to 1999 which is kinda interesting for the currency nerds among us

https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/yearly-average-rates/

Since around the first crash in 2009 it's averaged above 80p to the Euro (bar 2015) which actually surprised me as I thought it was lower. I rem the days of the rate being in the low 60 pence range...

Patser

Sam Russell wrote: »

A Tory Government.

In 2015 the Euro was incredibly weak due to.the Greek debt crisis, when Syriza (not sure of spelling) were in charge, threatening a massive default that as a Euro country threatened possible survival of Euro.

So in 2015 the Pound was incredibly high, that dropped to a more normal rate in 2016, but then the Brexit vote seen it collapse and at various times it has briefly dipped to about £1 = €1.05 but mostly pottered along at £1 = €1.10. I've taken to looking at 1.10 as the barometer on Brexit. If deal is looking good it goes above, if below thinks look bad (covid 19 has had a little impact but not that much)

Roanmore

Michael Gove in the HoC just accused the EU of being anti Science and anti Innovation.
How can he lie so brazenly, just rolled off his tongue.

listermint

Roanmore wrote: »

Michael Gove in the HoC just accused the EU of being anti Science and anti Innovation.
How can he lie so brazenly, just rolled off his tongue.

unusual take from someone who opted out of the Galileo and said no thank you to the continuation of Erasmus.

Call me Al

Roanmore wrote: »

Michael Gove in the HoC just accused the EU of being anti Science and anti Innovation.
How can he lie so brazenly, just rolled off his tongue.

It's all just blather. Rubbish.
Playing to the gallery.
He picks an angle, and gravitates his pitch and speech there. It's all nonsense, we know it and he knows it but it serves its purpose of rabble rousing.

I said it before on here and it's just remarkable that the UK is going on on something so much worse than the No Deal we used to talk about years ago. At the time, it was unthinkable really and now it's more likely than ever but with all this on top. What an absolute failure in international diplomacy.

Call me Al

listermint wrote: »

unusual take from someone who opted out of the Galileo and said no thank you to the continuation of Erasmus.

That was striking out, being an independent sovereign nation, being leaders in science.
Aka complete ráiméis.
We probably weren't meant to find out about the u-turn.

Everything about the government is crisis led, lurching from one crisis to another, and forcing themselves into a corner where they have to take unpalatable decisions because they can't tantrum their way out of their predicament, but will try to spin it differently.

Imreoir2

listermint wrote: »

unusual take from someone who opted out of the Galileo and said no thank you to the continuation of Erasmus.

It's easy, and useful.

All the time and energy put into outrage and 'fact checking' him is time and energy not put into building an effective opposition. All the heat around an issue of little substance also distracts from the substantial moves that are being made.

Its straight out of the Trump playbook and it is quite effective.