Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Gerry T

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-kent-internal-border-police-patrol-lorries-b552680.html

What I find interesting in it is a minister saying 70% of trucks may not be ready for checks. Call me a synic but, I think that means Gove hasn't got his new required 50,000 customs officials employed don't mind trained. The UK govt again failing the people, not able to handle the volume of traffic at it's ports. Can't see 70% of trucks having incomplete paperwork. More spin I suspect.

Leroy42

Gerry T wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-kent-internal-border-police-patrol-lorries-b552680.html

What I find interesting in it is a minister saying 70% of trucks may not be ready for checks. Call me a synic but, I think that means Gove hasn't got his new required 50,000 customs officials employed don't mind trained. The UK govt again failing the people, not able to handle the volume of traffic at it's ports. Can't see 70% of trucks having incomplete paperwork. More spin I suspect.

You are missing the real reason for the numbers, and indeed the speech. It is entirely to place blame on the hauliers and the companies. It won't be the governments fault, or Brexit, but all be down to hauliers and exporting/importing companies for not getting prepared. This comes quick on the heels of a senior civil servant saying that any issues will be down to the EU not being prepared.

One must remember that they refused to opt to extend the transition period, which many industry chiefs were calling for. Thus they need to start the groundwork to shift the blame away from that, clearly reckless, decision to someone else.

An Ciarraioch

52% of British exporters have yet to conduct a risk assessment ahead of the end of the transition period (TBF, I doubt the Irish figures are much better). Rather amused though by Andrew from Clitheroe voting for Brexit on the basis of business opportunities from FTAs, and then worrying because most of his suppliers are from the EU, shades of "I never thought the leopards would meet my face!"

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-54264692?__twitter_impression=true

tanko

Andrew deserves everything that’s coming his way.
Maybe in the future he’ll engage his brain and think for himself rather than allow himself to be brainwashed by useless corrupt liars.

Capt'n Midnight

Lumen wrote: »

I used to live a couple of hundred metres from the M25 and used it several times a day, but thanks for that lecture. :pac:



You want the Irish State to buy ferries? Like these?

https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/42098-new-brexit-buster-sister-ship-mv-laureline-expands-dublin-port-s-direct-route-cargo-sailings-to-europe

I tried to find out the cost of MV Celine but found only references to the Dublin Port expenses scandal. I'd imagine it's a couple of hundred million at least.

The Celine would ground out going into Rosslare but I guess anything is fixable with enough money.

Dublin Port is only a few hours from Rosslare so no real saving on the longer runs.

Also new ferry to Porto in Portugal.
Schedule: Leixões (Friday) – Dublin (Monday) – Liverpool (Monday) – Dublin (Wednesday) – Leixões (Friday).


oh two ships for EUR 123.2 million - but doesn't say which ones

GazzaL

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

52% of British exporters have yet to conduct a risk assessment ahead of the end of the transition period (TBF, I doubt the Irish figures are much better). Rather amused though by Andrew from Clitheroe voting for Brexit on the basis of business opportunities from FTAs, and then worrying because most of his suppliers are from the EU, shades of "I never thought the leopards would meet my face!"

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-54264692?__twitter_impression=true

You'd be surprised by how many Irish businesses, including small businesses, have done prep work. Even if that prep work simply amounts to making themselves aware of the customs procedures and being ready to shift to dealing with EU rather than UK businesses to avoid the hassle.

There were loads and loads of packed Customs seminars around the country. The customs paperwork is simply unmanageable for most SMEs both in terms of time and risk. The risk of getting things wrong and getting hit with delays or penalties is significant. There was zero chance that enough customs agents could have been trained to deal with Brexit so we have to adjust our supply chains and move away from Britain. There are a lot of people nowadays that never knew what trade was like before we were in the single market and the paperwork involved!

On the other hand, I still have British businesses telling me that they haven't left the EU. They seem to have forgotten 31/01/20.

Baseball72

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Dublin Port is only a few hours from Rosslare so no real saving on the longer runs.

Also new ferry to Porto in Portugal.
Schedule: Leixões (Friday) – Dublin (Monday) – Liverpool (Monday) – Dublin (Wednesday) – Leixões (Friday).


oh two ships for EUR 123.2 million - but doesn't say which ones

The above vessels do not accept driver accompanied trailers - due to Covid-19 restrictions. The vessels to Liverpool/Fishghuard/Pembroke and then Dover-Calais etc, continue to take drivers - as far as I know.

Baseball72

GazzaL wrote: »

You'd be surprised by how many Irish businesses, including small businesses, have done prep work. Even if that prep work simply amounts to making themselves aware of the customs procedures and being ready to shift to dealing with EU rather than UK businesses to avoid the hassle.

There were loads and loads of packed Customs seminars around the country. The customs paperwork is simply unmanageable for most SMEs both in terms of time and risk. The risk of getting things wrong and getting hit with delays or penalties is significant. There was zero chance that enough customs agents could have been trained to deal with Brexit so we have to adjust our supply chains and move away from Britain. There are a lot of people nowadays that never knew what trade was like before we were in the single market and the paperwork involved!

On the other hand, I still have British businesses telling me that they haven't left the EU. They seem to have forgotten 31/01/20.

Yes, Irish companies are much further ahead of their British suppliers / customers. Also, Customs & Revenue are ahead of HMRC. That said, we are only as good as the weakest link and right now the Brits are the weakest link.

Capt'n Midnight

Baseball72 wrote: »

The above vessels do not accept driver accompanied trailers - due to Covid-19 restrictions. The vessels to Liverpool/Fishghuard/Pembroke and then Dover-Calais etc, continue to take drivers - as far as I know.

Half of the RoRo traffic on the Irish sea used to be unaccompanied.

I'd expect that to go up if there are more restrictions on drivers. Or haulage firms.

Strazdas

GazzaL wrote: »

You'd be surprised by how many Irish businesses, including small businesses, have done prep work. Even if that prep work simply amounts to making themselves aware of the customs procedures and being ready to shift to dealing with EU rather than UK businesses to avoid the hassle.

There were loads and loads of packed Customs seminars around the country. The customs paperwork is simply unmanageable for most SMEs both in terms of time and risk. The risk of getting things wrong and getting hit with delays or penalties is significant. There was zero chance that enough customs agents could have been trained to deal with Brexit so we have to adjust our supply chains and move away from Britain. There are a lot of people nowadays that never knew what trade was like before we were in the single market and the paperwork involved!

On the other hand, I still have British businesses telling me that they haven't left the EU. They seem to have forgotten 31/01/20.

No real surprise there. It's a double whammy of a terrible government and a terrible media. UK businesses thinking they are still in the EU would be par for the course.

Outside of being time consuming, delays and general hassle, do you think many Irish SMEs will simply find it too expensive to trade with the UK?

reslfj

Baseball72 wrote: »

The above vessels do not accept driver accompanied trailers - due to Covid-19 restrictions. The vessels to Liverpool/Fishghuard/Pembroke and then Dover-Calais etc, continue to take drivers - as far as I know.

1. Covid-19 is a 9-18 months problem.
   
2. Anyway it's likely more efficient - saving many driver hours on these overnight routes - to place the cargo part on the ferry, keep the cabin/tractor and use another cabin/tractor at arrival.
   This will also solve the LHD/RHD problem.

More interesting how refrigeration is or can be implemented, I think.

Lars

Capt'n Midnight

Gerry T wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-kent-internal-border-police-patrol-lorries-b552680.html

What I find interesting in it is a minister saying 70% of trucks may not be ready for checks. Call me a synic but, I think that means Gove hasn't got his new required 50,000 customs officials employed don't mind trained. The UK govt again failing the people, not able to handle the volume of traffic at it's ports. Can't see 70% of trucks having incomplete paperwork. More spin I suspect.

Not going to work when those customs officials won't have any software.



https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1302526724148617216

That's way over optimistic because I'm guessing the world and it's mother will be in a mad rush to get stuff delivered before the cut off date.

Because it's not just customs , it's tariffs both ways if there's no deal. And that's going to be fun when Mr Truck Driver hands over his documents and is then asked for 12.8% plus €3,118 per tonne for his truck load of lamb when entering France.

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

1. Covid-19 is a 9-18 months problem.
   
2. Anyway it's likely more efficient - saving many driver hours on these overnight routes - to place the cargo part on the ferry, keep the cabin/tractor and use another cabin/tractor at arrival.
   This will also solve the LHD/RHD problem.

More interesting how refrigeration is or can be implemented, I think.

Lars

It saves paying a driver for the 30 hours on the ferry. Which is also cheaper than paying then to queue for two days.

It also solves the problem of very few ECMT permits and the visa problems though thanks to the CTA Irish Drivers are able to drive anywhere.



On long distance container ships refrigerated containers are plugged into the ships electrical supply. On shorter journeys refrigerated containers and trailers have their own diesel engines to run the compressors.

GazzaL

Strazdas wrote: »

No real surprise there. It's a double whammy of a terrible government and a terrible media. UK businesses thinking they are still in the EU would be par for the course.

Outside of being time consuming, delays and general hassle, do you think many Irish SMEs will simply find it too expensive to trade with the UK?

I've given up trying to explain it to them.

It will vary depending on different industries and products, but there will be increases in price on many UK imports. Even taking a fall in GBP into account, for many goods a WTO tariff will apply, and someone will have to pay for the customs paperwork, the extra labour cost for the truck driver and the extra fuel cost. It will all add up pretty quickly and will wipe out low value trade as trucks will need to carry higher volumes and values of cargo to make the journey economical.

GDPR will also be a significant problem too if companies can't agree to put suitable contractual clauses in place to ensure data is protected.

Capt'n Midnight

GazzaL wrote: »

I've given up trying to explain it to them.

It's hard to say exactly as it will vary depending on different industries and products, but there will be some products that will increase in price if being imported from the UK. Even taking a fall in GBP into account, for many goods a WTO tariff will apply, and someone will have to pay for the customs paperwork, the extra labour cost for the truck driver and the extra fuel cost. It will all add up pretty quickly and will wipe out low value trade as trucks will need to carry higher volumes and values of cargo to make the journey economical.

GDPR will also be a significant problem too if companies can't agree to put suitable contractual clauses in place to ensure data is protected.

The cost of paperwork will affect small companies and small deliveries most. Going to the EU or NI instead of GB would be the path of least resistance.

From 2018, the cost of “max fac”. If there isn't a good deal it could be worse.
Brexit customs paperwork to cost firms up to 20 billion pounds a year, tax official says

Strazdas

GazzaL wrote: »

I've given up trying to explain it to them.

It will vary depending on different industries and products, but there will be increases in price on many UK imports. Even taking a fall in GBP into account, for many goods a WTO tariff will apply, and someone will have to pay for the customs paperwork, the extra labour cost for the truck driver and the extra fuel cost. It will all add up pretty quickly and will wipe out low value trade as trucks will need to carry higher volumes and values of cargo to make the journey economical.

GDPR will also be a significant problem too if companies can't agree to put suitable contractual clauses in place to ensure data is protected.

Everything points to GB-Ire and GB-continental EU trade being seriously disrupted, especially in the case of British exports.

GazzaL

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The cost of paperwork will affect small companies and small deliveries most. Going to the EU or NI instead of GB would be the path of least resistance.

From 2018, the cost of “max fac”. If there isn't a good deal it could be worse.
Brexit customs paperwork to cost firms up to 20 billion pounds a year, tax official says

One customs agent I spoke to said the value of cargo per truck crossing the Norway-Sweden border is a multiple of those crossing between Ireland and Britain. I can't quite remember what that multiple was, but it was significant! The cost of customs makes a huge difference as to what's viable to ship.

Take a small Irish business that purchases goods from the UK worth €400 one week, €100 the next, €250 the week after. Each order requires a customs declaration. If a truck is carrying multiple different orders for different businesses, and just one hasn't got the paperwork organised correctly then the whole lot will be delayed. It's not practical or cost effective in the slightest.

Shelga

Any idea what exactly is going to happen with all of the M&S food that is imported here every day from the UK? It's already stupidly expensive, and costs 30-40% more than M&S in the UK, considering the fall in sterling. So if it becomes even more expensive, I'll have to give up on it, as will many others I suspect. It's not as if I go there much, more like an occasional treat, but that will be too difficult to justify.

Igotadose

Shelga wrote: »

Any idea what exactly is going to happen with all of the M&S food that is imported here every day from the UK? It's already stupidly expensive, and costs 30-40% more than M&S in the UK, considering the fall in sterling. So if it becomes even more expensive, I'll have to give up on it, as will many others I suspect. It's not as if I go there much, more like an occasional treat, but that will be too difficult to justify.

Exactly? No. But if I look into my crystal ball, the sea of confluence of Brexit effects shows fewer choices, and higher prices. Switch to something not imported from the UK.

Sam Russell

Shelga wrote: »

Any idea what exactly is going to happen with all of the M&S food that is imported here every day from the UK? It's already stupidly expensive, and costs 30-40% more than M&S in the UK, considering the fall in sterling. So if it becomes even more expensive, I'll have to give up on it, as will many others I suspect. It's not as if I go there much, more like an occasional treat, but that will be too difficult to justify.

Have you not heard the latest ads from M&S on the radio?

'This is not just Irish beef, it is M&S Irish beef?'

I think they will move to sourcing some of their product from Ireland. I doubt it will be significant, or cost effective, but they sound as if they are trying.

I suspect that they will withdraw from the Irish market as they already find it very expensive to be here compared with their stores in the UK. Wages and rents are higher, and the extra costs make their stuff about 20% dearer than the same stuff in the UK. It looks like they use an exchange rate of 75p = €1 instead of 90p or so currently.

Will they sell out to an Irish retailer or just close up? Perhaps sell out to a French outfit like Carrefour.

volchitsa

Shelga wrote: »

Any idea what exactly is going to happen with all of the M&S food that is imported here every day from the UK? It's already stupidly expensive, and costs 30-40% more than M&S in the UK, considering the fall in sterling. So if it becomes even more expensive, I'll have to give up on it, as will many others I suspect. It's not as if I go there much, more like an occasional treat, but that will be too difficult to justify.

Doesn't that leave room for an Irish company to start providing similar quality food then? We used to have a great local supermarket that in the end, and despite having some great food, was finally pushed out by Sainsbury's who opened a massive place 200 yards away (I don't live there any more so my custom wouldn't have helped, but my mother kept shopping there long after the writing was on the wall).

I wouldn't be at all sorry to see outfits like Sainsbury's now being priced out of the market. M&S too for that matter.

volchitsa

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

M&S and Iceland are both examples of how low quality and very highly processed+overpackaged UK food is,

while I prefer that there be more competition in retail as its (in theory) should be good for consumers, these UK chains leaving would not be a loss, if anything a gain from food quality available to customers point of view.

By this stage i would not shed a tear for any business which imports most of its products from UK, they should have paid attention and made noise when Boris said F^&K Business

Definitely M&S for sure - I've been systematically disappointed by all their supposedly sumptuous stuff that they do such OTT advertising for. At least Iceland isn't so pretentious about its stuff.

IAmTheReign

Valhallapt wrote: »

Just watching the news and seeing the haulage association call for PSOs as there isn’t a daily sailing to France.

I’m so surprised that there isn’t a daily sailing in place by now, thought that would have been table stakes? I’d fully support a state owned shipping lane with high speed ferries direct to France. I know we’ve made huge progress on zybrugge etc., just surprised France hasn’t had more investment...

This is intentional. Plans for freight routes linking Ireland and the continent post Brexit were agreed by the EU Commission last year. I don't think it was ever publicly stated why they decided not to involve French ports but the thinking is it was down to worries over congestion in northern France post Brexit. See here.

The Commission on Wednesday adopted a proposal to revise the routing of one of its strategic transport corridors to connect Dublin and Cork with the Belgian ports of Zeebrugge and Antwerp and the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, to channel trade directly from Ireland to mainland Europe after Brexit.

volchitsa

IAmTheReign wrote: »

This is intentional. Plans for freight routes linking Ireland and the continent post Brexit were agreed by the EU Commission last year. I don't think it was ever publicly stated why they decided not to involve French ports but the thinking is it was down to worries over congestion in northern France post Brexit. See here.

I see that link also mentions this: "congestion caused by industrial action by French port workers" I wonder if that's the less mentionable but bigger fear?

That's incredible..

swampgas

volchitsa wrote: »

I see that link also mentions this: "congestion caused by industrial action by French port workers" I wonder if that's the less mentionable but bigger fear?

Or perhaps they want to avoid collateral damage to Ireland if strikes are expected, and if allowing those strikes to drag on could be done to put pressure on the UK. That said, I've no idea what other countries would be affected by strikes by French port workers, but I'm assuming the UK would be most affected.

IAmTheReign

volchitsa wrote: »

I see that link also mentions this: "congestion caused by industrial action by French port workers" I wonder if that's the less mentionable but bigger fear?

Possibly, I can't see French customs and port workers going out of their way to facilitate English trade post Brexit.

There may be a more cynical reason for the decision though. These ports will be eligible for funding from the 30 billion the EU have budgeted over the next few years for strategic infrastructure development. Maybe the thinking was why invest in upgrading EU facilities if they're going to be predominantly used by a non EU country?

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

That's incredible..

Unfortunately, in terms of how Brexit has gone, it really isn't.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

Any idea what exactly is going to happen with all of the M&S food that is imported here every day from the UK?

With Brexit on top of Coronavirus, M&S Ireland will go out of business.

Probably true of any other UK retailer here except Tesco.

CelticRambler

volchitsa wrote: »

I see that link also mentions this: "congestion caused by industrial action by French port workers" I wonder if that's the less mentionable but bigger fear?

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Agree, if i were a French customs and/or port worker I be banging on the door of my union now as there is a flood of new/extra work going their way due to Brexit

One of the reasons given for the 24-hour strike/closure of the port of Calais yesterday. Link (en français) ; Operation Stack activated in Kent (en anglais! )