Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

An Ciarraioch

Charles Michel evidently doesn't expect much progress this week:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1311024138744627206

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

OR, they will simply blame the remainers for getting in the way of getting such an easy trade deal with the EU. My bet is that NI is going to come under serious negative commentary. Then, of course, the EU itself for 'punishing' the UK.

My guess is the Slobodan Milosevic approach to Kosovo: "our precious homeland Northern Ireland is being stolen away from us by evil foreigners".

Enzokk

Say what you want about Johnson, he does have his MPs on a tight leash. Even when they know its wrong they will not defy the whip.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1311046930567438336?s=20

So no defiance of the whip but abstaining. Cowards.

Joe_ Public

Enzokk wrote: »

Say what you want about Johnson, he does have his MPs on a tight leash. Even when they know its wrong they will not defy the whip.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1311046930567438336?s=20

So no defiance of the whip but abstaining. Cowards.

All Theresa Mays big talk over the past week and, when it comes down to action, that's the best she can do. Empty, hollow words.

joeysoap

Joe_ Public wrote: »

All Theresa Mays big talk over the past week and, when it comes down to action, that's the best she can do. Empty, hollow words.

Didn’t the EU give them until 1st October to withdraw the IM bill. Or was that just empty hollow words too ? Hopefully not.

Joe_ Public

joeysoap wrote: »

Didn’t the EU give them until 1st October to withdraw the IM bill. Or was that just empty hollow words too ? Hopefully not.

The uk won't be doing that, though. Getting the eu to initiate legal proceedings seems to be part of the immediate strategy so they can up the blame game. Other than trashing their international reputation even further, I've no idea what they expect to achieve through this. Is there much more to it than blame game posturing? Not sure there is.

Strazdas

joeysoap wrote: »

Didn’t the EU give them until 1st October to withdraw the IM bill. Or was that just empty hollow words too ? Hopefully not.

They did give that deadline but it looks like they are going to play the long game now and are not going to give Johnson the satisfaction of them walking away from the talks first.

Strazdas

Enzokk wrote: »

Say what you want about Johnson, he does have his MPs on a tight leash. Even when they know its wrong they will not defy the whip.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1311046930567438336?s=20

So no defiance of the whip but abstaining. Cowards.

Cummings is the enforcer I would say. He is the one most likely issuing the threats.

Enzokk

joeysoap wrote: »

Didn’t the EU give them until 1st October to withdraw the IM bill. Or was that just empty hollow words too ? Hopefully not.

The EU will take its time in taking the steps they can as per the agreement while negotiating the FTA. One way this gets resolved is if there is a deal and that allows Johnson to walk back on the IM Bill. He would then be saying the FTA he heroically negotiated means the measures in the bill is not needed and he can drop it with his threat of whip withdrawal and majority.

Strazdas wrote: »

Cummings is the enforcer I would say. He is the one most likely issuing the threats.

Sure, but Johnson still has to agree to it. He cannot be that lame duck that he does nothing and allows Cummings to rule with an iron fist in the background. I think it is most likely he allows it as he is too lazy to do the work, but it is done with is approval.

rock22

In terms of brexit , it is interesting that Google is planning a big office expansion in the UK. While only 2 weeks ago they cancelled a similar expansion in Ireland

Leroy42

So it seems that Frost has sent a letter (7th Sept) to the car industry basically admitting that rules of origin will mean that UK built cars will not be counted as EU.

Boris Johnson hands car industry to EU in trade compromise – leaked letter.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1341683/Brexit-latest-news-Boris-Johnson-brexit-talks-uk-car-industry-EU-news

This has some very serious, but very foreseeable from the very beginning on Brexit, issues for the car manufacturing industry in the UK. My understanding of it is that there would be little point in a Japensese manufactuer keeping produciton in the UK for sales into the EU at it would attracks tariffs. So they either manufacture directly in Japn, the EU, or find ways to reduce the costs in the UK such that the tariffs are efffectively gained back.

Seth Brundle

rock22 wrote: »

In terms of brexit , it is interesting that Google is planning a big office expansion in the UK. While only 2 weeks ago they cancelled a similar expansion in Ireland

As the UK looks to be going rogue, it's possible that Google will need new offices and data centres in the UK as different rules will apply to it (we can assume GDPR won't apply in the UK for example)

Brianmwalker

rock22 wrote: »

In terms of brexit , it is interesting that Google is planning a big office expansion in the UK. While only 2 weeks ago they cancelled a similar expansion in Ireland

Dublin was a lease but they'll own the building in London?

Zubeneschamali

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As the UK looks to be going rogue, it's possible that Google will need new offices and data centres in the UK as different rules will apply to it

They could also be thinking there'll soon be a pool of unemployed experienced techies there who will have lost their EU worker protections.

VinLieger

rock22 wrote: »

In terms of brexit , it is interesting that Google is planning a big office expansion in the UK. While only 2 weeks ago they cancelled a similar expansion in Ireland

They arent similar at all. As others have pointed out what they canceled in Dublin was a lease, they are still continuing with their development of the old Bolands mill which will hold about 2500 workers when its finished.

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As the UK looks to be going rogue, it's possible that Google will need new offices and data centres in the UK as different rules will apply to it (we can assume GDPR won't apply in the UK for example)

There is also the question of Corporation Tax, and tax paid in the UK. If they have a large(ish) presence in the UK, they can lobby against a change in taxation.

GDPR is also an issue.

rock22

VinLieger wrote: »

They arent similar at all. As others have pointed out what they canceled in Dublin was a lease, they are still continuing with their development of the old Bolands mill which will hold about 2500 workers when its finished.

thanks for clarification.

ambro25

Enzokk wrote: »

The EU will take its time in taking the steps they can as per the agreement while negotiating the FTA. One way this gets resolved is if there is a deal and that allows Johnson to walk back on the IM Bill. He would then be saying the FTA he heroically negotiated means the measures in the bill is not needed and he can drop it with his threat of whip withdrawal and majority.

I suppose that depends on your temporal definition of Johnson 'getting' a deal.

Because negotiators and tunnel-time irrespective, I just cannot see enough of the EU Parliament buying into a Johnson promise, that he'll bin the controversial clauses of the IMB after the EU Parliament votes the FTA deal through, somehow. And still less after last night's HoC vote.

Dunno about you, but were I 'the EU' here, I'd want money upfront on this. Cleared funds on account with no chargeback available: bin the whole IMB first. Then we'll have a think.

Enzokk

ambro25 wrote: »

I suppose that depends on your temporal definition of 'getting' a deal.

Because negotiators and tunnel-time irrespective, I just cannot see enough of the EU Parliament buying into a Johnson promise, that he'll bin the controversial clauses of the IMB after the EU Parliament votes the FTA deal through, somehow.

And still less after last night's HoC vote.

What I mean is if he really wants a deal and he needs to get rid of parts of the IM Bill, he will use the deal as a reason to change the IM Bill and remove the parts the EU object to. The EU will only give him a deal if those parts are removed by Johnson, not just on his words but actions in parliament.

moon2

Seth Brundle wrote: »

As the UK looks to be going rogue, it's possible that Google will need new offices and data centres in the UK as different rules will apply to it (we can assume GDPR won't apply in the UK for example)

Slightly hand wavey answer because it's a complex topic - GDPR won't apply to businesses in the UK as long as they do not process or store data related to EU citizens.

In other words, if the UK wishes to continue dealing with EU businesses and process/store EU information, they will have to abide by GDPR.

Joe_ Public

I'd imagine the thinking in government circles is not just to get a deal but to get a deal and then be able to then turn around and declare to followers and doubters alike that it was their skilled brinksmanship as per the IM bill wot won it. And maybe the eu will willingly throw them a small bone and let them get on with it, in the interests of peace and serenity, but, if as I anticipate, the uk insists on using it as leverage - give us what we want or the bill stays exactly as it is - then I see it going only inexorably towards no deal and full on blame game.

ambro25

Enzokk wrote: »

What I mean is if he really wants a deal and he needs to get rid of parts of the IM Bill, he will use the deal as a reason to change the IM Bill and remove the parts the EU object to. The EU will only give him a deal if those parts are removed by Johnson, not just on his words but actions in parliament.

After the last 4 years, and the increasingly unequivocal painting of the worst of yesteryear's Project Fear into Project Fact by the UK government itself in recent weeks, whilst taking ever greater control of the political process and narrative domestically...

...then inasmuch as Johnson (rather than his handlers) could ever want anything political and get it, Johnson doesn't want really a deal.

I'm at the stage of half-believing the rumours of Johnson's departure in January 2021. Not because he'll have grown too tired by the job after his bout of Covid. But because he'll have served his purpose of husbanding the no deal outcome planned all along, through to the other side of the exiting process.

fash

ambro25 wrote: »

I suppose that depends on your temporal definition of Johnson 'getting' a deal.

Because negotiators and tunnel-time irrespective, I just cannot see enough of the EU Parliament buying into a Johnson promise, that he'll bin the controversial clauses of the IMB after the EU Parliament votes the FTA deal through, somehow. And still less after last night's HoC vote.

Dunno about you, but were I 'the EU' here, I'd want money upfront on this. Cleared funds on account with no chargeback available: bin the whole IMB first. Then we'll have a think.

If it were to work, I imagine there would be an agreement in principle, that is celebrated by Johnson who withdraws the IM bill, then EU parliament confirms.
It will be interesting to see if an agreement is reached. My conceptual problem with it all is that a deal would require Johnson to take responsibility for the inevitable 1 January car crash and the awfulness of any realistic deal. It is very hard to see why he would do that.
There would be to be some sort of "transition period plus" at least to hide the pain for a while yet.

10000maniacs

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Dublin was a lease but they'll own the building in London?

I wouldn't hold my breath on that London build either.

ambro25

fash wrote: »

If it were to work, I imagine there would be an agreement in principle, that is celebrated by Johnson who withdraws the IM bill, then EU parliament confirms.
It will be interesting to see if an agreement is reached. My conceptual problem with it all is that a deal would require Johnson to take responsibility for the inevitable 1 January car crash and the awfulness of any realistic deal. It is very hard to see why he would do that.
There would be to be some sort of "transition period plus" at least to hide the pain for a while yet.

The problem I see with 'agreements in principle' at this stage (i.e. post getting the IMB voted through on 3rd reading by an enormous Parliamentary majority with no real dissent, save for 21 abstentions, which trashes the written and consensually-signed WA agreement), is that there is now incontrovertible evidence of one party to the negotiations having none of these principles.

And that the audience appreciating the value of these principles is not just the UK, but the geopolitical world and its dog. With trade negotiations ongoing permently with the US, China and emerging eco superpowers, the EU27 simply cannot appear to have given in to this legislative blackmail, even superficially, under any circumstances.

I wrote the Brits off 3 years ago (in EU/Brexit terms, not as a people). I have seen nothing, in that time, apt to change my mind. Only factors of vindication. They need the catharsis of existing as a third country, with or without an FTA with the EU, for a few years at least. Only that, has any chance of precipitating the sort of deep political and socio-economic changes they so badly require.

Zubeneschamali

fash wrote: »

My conceptual problem with it all is that a deal would require Johnson to take responsibility for the inevitable 1 January car crash and the awfulness of any realistic deal. It is very hard to see why he would do that.

The chaos is coming with or without a deal. The question is if they want to minimise or maximise it.

We have been saying for years here that No Deal is unsustainable, they cannot do it for long. If Johnson tries, he'll be gone in January and the new PM will be in emergency talks with the EU looking for a deal.

fash

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The chaos is coming with or without a deal. The question is if they want to minimise or maximise it.

That is only the question if you are personally affected. Assume a deal is achieved: it causes ERG uproar, causes uproar for industry, there is a horrific mess on 1 January and Johnson must say "I did this, it is what I wanted, what I always told you -see how amazing it is and how right you were to trust me" etc.

Whatever happens he can't immediately blame the EU (he might conceivably win a transition period plus and then tell his people that "EU needs this because they are not ready - I know, I know - but I felt sorry for them for old times sake"etc.)

Why would he do that? Why would he take responsibility (when has he ever done that in the past with any aspect of his life)?

Has he not always want to play Churchill and start shouting about fighting on the beaches and never surrendering? Which do you think is his personal preference? Which do you think is the preference of those around him?

Zubeneschamali

fash wrote: »

Why would he do that? Why would he take responsibility (when has he ever done that in the past with any aspect of his life)?

Because bad as a deal will be, No Deal will be far worse, and Johnson will still be PM and responsible.

So does he want to own a big mess with a deal, or the biggest mess since WW2 with No Deal?

To an extent I suppose it doesn't matter, he's gone either way, but which mess would Gove or Sunak prefer to inherit?

CelticRambler

Ate we seeing more of the Brexiters' mistaken belief that the EU always blinks at the last minute? Mistaken, because that belief is based on the EU's behaviour in respect of internal negotiations - all that many Brexiters have ever known - and not the EU's stone-cold stare when negotiating with third countries?

It feels to me like we (or rather they, the UK) are out of time already. The IMB is being driven onwards, despite the EU's (and te US's) warnings, so even if Barnier and Frost hammered out a deal contingent on the IMB being "corrected" before the deal could be signed, and even if the EParl/ECo gave it a conditional green light, it would take some almighty political organisation to get the new amendments through the HoC in time for the deal to then be ratified by the individual EU27 parliaments ... right before - or during - a Covid Christmas.

I think that Brexiters are genuinely oblivious to the scorn and contempt they've created amongst the very Europeans whose support they need to rubber-stamp whatever mediocre deal is eventually agreed by Barnier and Frost - and that's after a chaotic no-deal start to the New Year.

10000maniacs

I see the Tories threw the EU a few scraps today. LOL
They have put forward a "compromise" on fishing, and Brandon Lewis has said today there will be checks on Agrifoods between NI and GB.
The EU should hold out on everything until the Internal Market Bill is scrapped.

"Downing Street did not deny reports that a compromise offer put forward by London would allow EU catches in British waters to be “phased down” between 2021 and 2024 to allow time for continental coastal communities to adapt."