Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

54and56

Sam Russell wrote: »

I can see the UK seeking an extension as a result of the Covid 2nd wave - who could have seen the second wave coming?

I really don't think they can or will unless BoJo and Co are somehow thrown out.

They only declined the option to extend the transition in June which was deep into the Global Covid-19 pandemic with the possibility/probability of a 2nd wave late in the year well understood!!

Shelga

Please don’t let them extend. None of us can bear this for another 1-2 years. Time to have the shock of the reality of their decision. No more delays.

LeinsterDub

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If an extension were to be discussed, it needs to be with milestones that the UK must meet or the extension ends immediately.

What's the legality around an extension on the European side? What actors need to approve. Is it even possible?

Valhallapt

Just watching the news and seeing the haulage association call for PSOs as there isn’t a daily sailing to France.

I’m so surprised that there isn’t a daily sailing in place by now, thought that would have been table stakes? I’d fully support a state owned shipping lane with high speed ferries direct to France. I know we’ve made huge progress on zybrugge etc., just surprised France hasn’t had more investment...

GazzaL

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

We have been and continue to do so. We know have the capability to move 80% of our output via water directly to the continent. The government have made great strides over the past half decade building this capability.

I knew there had been significant investment in our port infrastructure but didn't realise we had that level of capacity so far. That's excellent, great work being done.

54and56 wrote: »

A no deal Brexit will force us to cut the landbridge apron strings. It's a cheap convenient logistic solution but once it's reliability is removed as a fast predictable route ferry based solutions will emerge and become the norm. That might add some marginal cost to supply chains but in return it will improve the security of those supply chains and remove any reliance on access via the UK landbridge for good.

The delays on the landbridge in UK ports will be horrendous. A few hours delay queuing to get into Kent or in the ports can very quickly become half a day or more because of driving limits. You then have to factor in extra fuel, extra labour, and extra paperwork costs to transit through Britain.

We will just have to adjust our supply chains to accommodate the new shipping routes and schedules.

Everything the company I work for imports from the EU is now completely bypassing the landbridge and we're getting products in as quick as we do from Britain.

murphaph

I'd be amazed if the government hasn't had serious discussions with the Commission about the provisioning of direct ferry services to the continent in the event of chaos in Kent.

Strazdas

What would an extension be for? EU-UK negotiations are drawing to a close soon with nothing more to be discussed (one way or the other) and all relevant legislation has already gone through Parliament. So what would be the purpose of another extension......to do what exactly?

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

What would an extension be for? EU-UK negotiations are drawing to a close soon with nothing more to be discussed (one way or the other) and all relevant legislation has already gone through Parliament. So what would be the purpose of another extension......to do what exactly?

To give the UK time to get ready for the paperwork. To force the UK to abide by the terms of the WA. To prove the UK are up the creek without a paddle.

Who knows.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

To give the UK time to get ready for the paperwork. To force the UK to abide by the terms of the WA. To prove the UK are up the creek without a paddle.

Who knows.

As much as I'd love to have the whole fell endeavour binned by another referendum, I really think we need to progress and this can only happen once the current transition period lapses and global Britain starts to flail desperately.

As a few posters have succinctly pointed out, do many people want yet more years of this? This has gone on for nearly 4.5 years since the original referendum and in that time all that the conservative party has done is play silly blame games, lie to their sovereign and Unionist allies in Northern Ireland, tout their surrender deal as a win and then legislate to undermine said deal.

More time given is just more time to waste. If the narrative here had evolved, I'd be pleading for it but it hasn't. It's still the same disproven canards about fish, sovereignty and trade deals that it was before whenever something about how difficult Brexit is arises. The dream needs to die and only reality has the capacity to do that. That's what December 2019 made me realise.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As much as I'd love to have the whole fell endeavour binned by another referendum, I really think we need to progress and this can only happen once the current transition period lapses and global Britain starts to flail desperately.

As a few posters have succinctly pointed out, do many people want yet more years of this? This has gone on for nearly 4.5 years since the original referendum and in that time all that the conservative party has done is play silly blame games, lie to their sovereign and Unionist allies in Northern Ireland, tout their surrender deal as a win and then legislate to undermine said deal.

More time given is just more time to waste. If the narrative here had evolved, I'd be pleading for it but it hasn't. It's still the same disproven canards about fish, sovereignty and trade deals that it was before whenever something about how difficult Brexit is arises. The dream needs to die and only reality has the capacity to do that. That's what December 2019 made me realise.

I heard Keir Starmer say that they (the UK) needs 'to get Brexit done!' I was shocked at that. Who is he trying to appeal to? Is Labour now in full Brexiteer mode now?

I just do not get what is going on in Britain. Is there no adult left in British politics.

They need this over and done with - and live with the consequences on their sunny uplands filed with herds of unicorns.

moon2

Sam Russell wrote: »

I heard Keir Starmer say that they (the UK) needs 'to get Brexit done!' I was shocked at that. Who is he trying to appeal to? Is Labour now in full Brexiteer mode now?.

I don't know the full context of when he said that, but from a technical perspective brexit is already done. The UK have already left. 'All' that remains is to negotiate an FTA or equivalent.

If Starmer was suggesting the UK should "get brexit done" by negotiating and finalising a trade agreement, then he is exactly right.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I heard Keir Starmer say that they (the UK) needs 'to get Brexit done!' I was shocked at that. Who is he trying to appeal to? Is Labour now in full Brexiteer mode now?

I just do not get what is going on in Britain. Is there no adult left in British politics.

They need this over and done with - and live with the consequences on their sunny uplands filed with herds of unicorns.

He's just trying to get the Labour party in line with the new normal. There's no gain whatsoever in complaining about Brexit beyond highlighting the government's incompetence. It's a settled issue now and it'd just be portrayed by the press as a "Remoaner conspiracy" or some such thing.

It's done. The sooner it happens, the sooner a positive case for EU membership can be made once the UK grows up a bit.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

I heard Keir Starmer say that they (the UK) needs 'to get Brexit done!' I was shocked at that. Who is he trying to appeal to? Is Labour now in full Brexiteer mode now?

I just do not get what is going on in Britain. Is there no adult left in British politics.

They need this over and done with - and live with the consequences on their sunny uplands filed with herds of unicorns.

Brexit has happened already so he cannot do anything to stop it. The next election is in 4 years time so no need fighting Johnson at every moment on something he cannot change.

The narrative he is trying to portray is that the current government is incompetent and them screwing up Brexit when there is zero opposition to it just adds credence to this portrayal.

Shelga

It's interesting watching back some of the debates from 2016. (Or else I just need the pandemic to end so I can leave the house properly :pac:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHfDqOfRAtg&ab_channel=UKJ0N

Above is the ITV debate from 2016. It's long, and I'm just skimming through it. A few things stand out so far:

1. How Andrea Leadsom (god, I can barely listen to her) and Boris Johnson talk about "the EU this, the EU that"- Leadsom says "we pay in £350million a week, and get 25% back- the EU decides how that is distributed"- the UK was the EU. And was one of its most powerful, influential members. Convincing the electorate that the EU was an organisation that dictated to the UK underpinned all of the other rubbish. All I'm hearing is they, they they.

2. Nicola Sturgeon argues passionately for remaining, even though she must have already been thinking by then that a vote to leave would be beneficial to her campaign for independence. I believe she did this because she has integrity, and knows that no matter what else happens with Scotland, being in the EU is the best option for everyone in the UK.

3. All of the arguments are so hypothetical- how they can trade successfully without being a member of the EU, and the Leavers mention plenty of other countries that do so. Yes of course it is possible to be successful outside of the EU- but they are countries whose entire trading framework hasn't been entwined with the single market for the last 4+ decades, and who aren't surrounded by EU countries on all sides. There is no mention of the practical tasks involved with extricating themselves from these frameworks- the lorry park in Kent, as mentioned today. :rolleyes:

4. Andrea Leadsom has said "take back control" about 12 times, and I've only been watching for about 20 minutes. Boris similar with "Project Fear".

5. Gisela Stewart, MP for Birmingham Edgbaston at the time, and German, incidentally, confidently asserts that the EU will not apply any tariffs to the UK, as it is in no one's interests. As if it's that simple. Her arrogance and stupidity is astounding.

6. Zero mention of Northern Ireland.

Yet again, I am flabbergasted that anyone can listen to the likes of Leadsom, Johnson and Stewart and think- "I have faith in the intellect and competence of these people to take us out of the EU." They deserve everything that's coming their way. Am I taking the high road? Nope.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He's just trying to get the Labour party in line with the new normal. There's no gain whatsoever in complaining about Brexit beyond highlighting the government's incompetence. It's a settled issue now and it'd just be portrayed by the press as a "Remoaner conspiracy" or some such thing.

It's done. The sooner it happens, the sooner a positive case for EU membership can be made once the UK grows up a bit.

The full interview was by Peston to be on ITV at 11 15 pm tonight.

I got the impression he wants to unite the Labour party - nothing more, nothing less. No policies, just waving the red flag. He has a lot of work to do to rebuild the red wall.

Brexit is done - and the Tories own it.

ballsymchugh

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He's just trying to get the Labour party in line with the new normal. There's no gain whatsoever in complaining about Brexit beyond highlighting the government's incompetence. It's a settled issue now and it'd just be portrayed by the press as a "Remoaner conspiracy" or some such thing.

It's done. The sooner it happens, the sooner a positive case for EU membership can be made once the UK grows up a bit.

heard Naomi Smith mention it on the bunker podcast earlier, saying that brexit isn't done. honestly, what are they expecting him to say?? it's time they move on and just agitate for as good a trade relationship as possible or future membership of the custom union/single market.
the argument was done and dusted on Jan 31st.

rejoining won't happen for a long time, and I can't see it being a single entity UK rejoining either.

Strazdas

Shelga wrote: »

It's interesting watching back some of the debates from 2016. (Or else I just need the pandemic to end so I can leave the house properly :pac:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHfDqOfRAtg&ab_channel=UKJ0N

Above is the ITV debate from 2016. It's long, and I'm just skimming through it. A few things stand out so far:

1. How Andrea Leadsom (god, I can barely listen to her) and Boris Johnson talk about "the EU this, the EU that"- Leadsom says "we pay in £350million a week, and get 25% back- the EU decides how that is distributed"- the UK was the EU. And was one of its most powerful, influential members. Convincing the electorate that the EU was an organisation that dictated to the UK underpinned all of the other rubbish. All I'm hearing is they, they they.

2. Nicola Sturgeon argues passionately for remaining, even though she must have already been thinking by then that a vote to leave would be beneficial to her campaign for independence. I believe she did this because she has integrity, and knows that no matter what else happens with Scotland, being in the EU is the best option for everyone in the UK.

3. All of the arguments are so hypothetical- how they can trade successfully without being a member of the EU, and the Leavers mention plenty of other countries that do so. Yes of course it is possible to be successful outside of the EU- but they are countries whose entire trading framework hasn't been entwined with the single market for the last 4+ decades, and who aren't surrounded by EU countries on all sides. There is no mention of the practical tasks involved with extricating themselves from these frameworks- the lorry park in Kent, as mentioned today. :rolleyes:

4. Andrea Leadsom has said "take back control" about 12 times, and I've only been watching for about 20 minutes. Boris similar with "Project Fear".

5. Gisela Stewart, MP for Birmingham Edgbaston at the time, and German, incidentally, confidently asserts that the EU will not apply any tariffs to the UK, as it is in no one's interests. As if it's that simple. Her arrogance and stupidity is astounding.

6. Zero mention of Northern Ireland.

Yet again, I am flabbergasted that anyone can listen to the likes of Leadsom, Johnson and Stewart and think- "I have faith in the intellect and competence of these people to take us out of the EU." They deserve everything that's coming their way. Am I taking the high road? Nope.

"Take back control" was a Cummings slogan I believe. Was Leadsom being briefed by Vote Leave and told what to say during the debate?

On your first point ('they, they, they') I've heard Brexiteers refer to the EU as a "foreign power" recently. It's all part of their right wing / far right English nationalist narrative : the EU is "foreign", a dictatorship and trying to screw the UK over.

johnnyskeleton

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't get it though, are they not just pushing the problem further up from Kent? There will be a problem of trucks not having the documentation they need to go to Europe and they will be stopped before going to Kent. So the next counties up, Sussex, London and Surrey will have to deal with those trucks not being allowed into Kent. Tell me I am missing something here.

Even if this worked perfectly smoothly, it raises a big Brexit flavoured problem. Im going to go Daily Express for this one:

Michael Gove DEMANDS that part of the UK be treated SEPARATELY to the rest of the UK, without the consent of Kents devolved local authority

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

The full interview was by Peston to be on ITV at 11 15 pm tonight.

I got the impression he wants to unite the Labour party - nothing more, nothing less. No policies, just waving the red flag. He has a lot of work to do to rebuild the red wall.

Brexit is done - and the Tories own it.

I'd say this is exactly this. He needs to build a foundation so he can win the next election. People are sick of Brexit or else Johnson wouldn't have won that majority. Let it happen, call out incompetence and let the chips fall where they may. A majority that size comes with caveats.

ballsymchugh wrote: »

heard Naomi Smith mention it on the bunker podcast earlier, saying that brexit isn't done. honestly, what are they expecting him to say?? it's time they move on and just agitate for as good a trade relationship as possible or future membership of the custom union/single market.
the argument was done and dusted on Jan 31st.

rejoining won't happen for a long time, and I can't see it being a single entity UK rejoining either.

Smith is the only one on the Bunker/Remainiacs regulars who comes across as a bit of a smug liberal. She has a superb command of the data given her role as CEO of Best for Britain but she seems incapable of seeing when she's wrong.

It won't even be electorally or politically safe to even mention rejoining before 20300 IMO. A lot needs to happen before then.

ballsymchugh

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd say this is exactly this. He needs to build a foundation so he can win the next election. People are sick of Brexit or else Johnson wouldn't have won that majority. Let it happen, call out incompetence and let the chips fall where they may. A majority that size comes with caveats.



Smith is the only one on the Bunker/Remainiacs regulars who comes across as a bit of a smug liberal. She has a superb command of the data given her role as CEO of Best for Britain but she seems incapable of seeing when she's wrong.

It won't even be electorally or politically safe to even mention rejoining before 20300 IMO. A lot needs to happen before then.

actually, now that you mention her and data, she always has some poll figure to back up what she's talking about, such as a majority of britons want a good deal with the EU etc. I really wish she'd drop that kind of stuff from her spiel.
she's probably asking the same people who though jo swinson would be a good prime minister.

Shelga

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd say this is exactly this. He needs to build a foundation so he can win the next election. People are sick of Brexit or else Johnson wouldn't have won that majority. Let it happen, call out incompetence and let the chips fall where they may. A majority that size comes with caveats.



Smith is the only one on the Bunker/Remainiacs regulars who comes across as a bit of a smug liberal. She has a superb command of the data given her role as CEO of Best for Britain but she seems incapable of seeing when she's wrong.

It won't even be electorally or politically safe to even mention rejoining before 20300 IMO. A lot needs to happen before then.

Agreed. She's interesting and informed, as they all are, but she needs to accept that Brexit will not be reversed at any time in the next decade minimum. She is someone who clearly doesn't spend much time around Brexiters.

Neither do I anymore, thank god :pac:

fash

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He's just trying to get the Labour party in line with the new normal. There's no gain whatsoever in complaining about Brexit beyond highlighting the government's incompetence. It's a settled issue now and it'd just be portrayed by the press as a "Remoaner conspiracy" or some such thing.

It's done. The sooner it happens, the sooner a positive case for EU membership can be made once the UK grows up a bit.

Yes exactly- complaining about Brexit (in a Remain-y sense) is what the Tories want Labour to do - they want to ignite the culture war as like the Republicans in the US they realise that what they used to sell to the public is no longer going to work (a social contract of ever upwardly mobile people) and need something new.
Keir wants to prevent Brexit becoming a culture war issue - why do what your enemy wants you to do?

54and56

Sam Russell wrote: »

I heard Keir Starmer say that they (the UK) needs 'to get Brexit done!' I was shocked at that. Who is he trying to appeal to? Is Labour now in full Brexiteer mode now?

I just do not get what is going on in Britain. Is there no adult left in British politics.

They need this over and done with

The decision to Brexit has been made. Keir Starmer is smart to accept that and not fight old (lost) battles.

Labours focus now needs to be on holding BoJo to account to execute the best Brexit possible which is predictably a fairly easy task for them like shooting fish in a barrel.

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

And here he is on the floor explaining the permit,

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1308779299214852096?s=20

I don't get it though, are they not just pushing the problem further up from Kent? There will be a problem of trucks not having the documentation they need to go to Europe and they will be stopped before going to Kent. So the next counties up, Sussex, London and Surrey will have to deal with those trucks not being allowed into Kent. Tell me I am missing something here.

Wow wow wow. That is so utterly ridiculous. Really, a complete farce. They are now dividing not the UK, but England... for... Brexit? Shambles doesn't cover this.

ancapailldorcha

ballsymchugh wrote: »

actually, now that you mention her and data, she always has some poll figure to back up what she's talking about, such as a majority of britons want a good deal with the EU etc. I really wish she'd drop that kind of stuff from her spiel.
she's probably asking the same people who though jo swinson would be a good prime minister.

It's true but she has a habit of coming across as a bit of a know-it-all as a result. How Britons feel doesn't correlate with last December's vote and that's what matters.

Shelga wrote: »

Agreed. She's interesting and informed, as they all are, but she needs to accept that Brexit will not be reversed at any time in the next decade minimum. She is someone who clearly doesn't spend much time around Brexiters.

Neither do I anymore, thank god :pac:

Indeed. She'll bring up veganism, racism and feminism at any opportunity but usually in something of a condescending manner which doesn't help.

The Brexit thing is done. A referendum and two general elections was enough for me and I've literally thousands of posts on this site about it.

fash wrote: »

Yes exactly- complaining about Brexit (in a Remain-y sense) is what the Tories want Labour to do - they want to ignite the culture war as like the Republicans in the US they realise that what they used to sell to the public is no longer going to work (a social contract of ever upwardly mobile people) and need something new.
Keir wants to prevent Brexit becoming a culture war issue - why do what your enemy wants you to do?

Yep. We have a Vote Leave government that seems to be unable to realise that it's now time to govern, not campaign. Johnson only seems to be interested in culture war issues while the country is heading for a completely artificial recession.

The British middle class and conservatives need to realise that the country is well stocked for real problems. So much so that it's beyond farcical that they're fretting about whatever is or is not played on Last Night of the Proms.

Snickers Man

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gove confirms there will effectively be a regulatory border between Kent and the rest of England:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1308755603247034368

So, no hard border in Ireland.
No hard border in the Irish Sea.
I know! Let's put on on the Kent/Essex border!!!!

Permit checks on the Dartford Tunnel or QEII Bridge: that'll keep the Brexiteers happy.

You couldn't make this up. And THEY tell jokes about US being stupid :eek: :eek: :eek:

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't get it though, are they not just pushing the problem further up from Kent? There will be a problem of trucks not having the documentation they need to go to Europe and they will be stopped before going to Kent. So the next counties up, Sussex, London and Surrey will have to deal with those trucks not being allowed into Kent. Tell me I am missing something here.

That's not how it's supposed to work.

Getting a permit will be absurdly easy. You log on, input your truck's registration number, and then answer a series of yes/no questions. ("Do you have this form? Have you completed that declaration? Does your consignment include this class of product and, if so, have you got that permit?"). If you give the correct sequence of yes/no answers, your permit spits out. The system is not "smart" and is not integrated with other systems; it does not know and cannot check whether your answers are correct or not. So you can lie and get a Kent Access Permit.

So, what it effectively serves as is a reminder to hauliers of what paperwork they need to have in place before arriving at the ferryports. If they answer wrongly, and then turn up in Kent without the required paperwork, there may be some fine or penalty for having come without the paperwork/having lied to obtain the permit, but in any event they'll be turned away from the ferry. I think the hope is that most people will simply not set off for Kent until
they have all the paperwork they need, because why would you, knowing that at best you'll have to turn around and come back?

What might happen, obviously, is that someobody sets off from (say) Liverpool without Form X, but hoping to have obtained Form X by the time he gets as far as Kent. If he hasn't, then to avoid the risk of a fine or other sanction he'll have to pull over somewhere outside Kent and wait for Form X. And, yes, that could lead to congestion at lorry parks, yards, motorway service stations etc on or near the main roads approaching the Kent border. But the permit system may be effective to prevent a signicant chunk of the inadequately-documented traffic from heading towards Kent in the first place.

While this may help to reduce snarl-ups in and around Kent, it doesn't avoid delays to trade. A lorry stuck in Liverpool waiting for the correct paperwork to be arranged is still stuck; the goods it should be carrying are still delayed. But at least they won't be delayed in a queue on the M20, blocking other trucks that have their paperwork in order.

Lumen

Snickers Man wrote: »

LOL!!

I take it you have never experienced the sclerotic chaos that is the motorway system around London

I used to live a couple of hundred metres from the M25 and used it several times a day, but thanks for that lecture. :pac:

Snickers Man wrote: »

Extend motorway to Rosslare right away. Find out who's making the fastest ferries in teh world capable of plying the Rosslare-Cherbourg/Le Havre route. And buy a few of them!!

You want the Irish State to buy ferries? Like these?

https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/42098-new-brexit-buster-sister-ship-mv-laureline-expands-dublin-port-s-direct-route-cargo-sailings-to-europe

I tried to find out the cost of MV Celine but found only references to the Dublin Port expenses scandal. I'd imagine it's a couple of hundred million at least.

The Celine would ground out going into Rosslare but I guess anything is fixable with enough money.

fash

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The British middle class and conservatives need to realise that the country is well stocked for real problems. So much so that it's beyond farcical that they're fretting about whatever is or is not played on Last Night of the Proms.

They don't of course care about a non issue like the Proms decision that an audience sing along without an audience might be silly - it is just something that can be spun into a culture war issue.

ancapailldorcha

fash wrote: »

They don't of course care about a non issue like the Proms decision that an audience sing along without an audience might be silly - it is just something that can be spun into a culture war issue.

Johnson has written history. I get the impression that he cares but he's also extremely lazy so I doubt he cares enough to actually do something about it. He'll chime in with his side of the culture war and that'll be plenty for him.