Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Snickers Man wrote: »

Anyone read in the Irish Times a few days ago Fintan O'Toole's demolition of "Brexit as British-led Utopia" as predicted by arch Brexiteer Daniel Hannan a few days before the Brexit referendum in 2016?

Well, here's a link to the original article. Fintan was actually toning his comments down a little.

Now in fairness to Mr Hannan, he was predicting what the world would look like in June 2025, so we still have nearly a full five years to go. Maybe some of his predictions will come true by then. But so far.....not looking good :D:D

Let's be sure to come back to this on June 24th 2025. If we're all still here

I read Fintan's article in the paper edition on Saturday. The opening few paragraphs where he outlines Hannan's vision for 2025 were amazing......it was like reading George Orwell's 1984 (!)

Hannan has some imagination, I'll give him that.....a crazed fantasy where the UK becomes a global super power after Brexit and by far the most important country in Europe.

Spanish Eyes

I think the Covid rules (That change every day) are deliberately trying to obliterate the Brexit impact myself. But sure what do I know.

Very little possibly.

Peregrinus

View wrote: »

The opt-out on Schengen in the Treaty of Amsterdam, which was signed at roughly the same time, specifically allows for Ireland to opt-in to Schengen on its own and that would have required a hard border if the U.K. chose not to follows us. So, clearly, our government did envisage the possibility that we might opt-in to Schengen without the U.K. and were aware that might require a border.

No. The thinking here was not that Ireland might want to join Schengen independently of the UK, but that Ireland should have the right to do so, since it was important not to enshrine a rule which might appear to make Ireland's decision re Schengen conditional or dependent on the UK's. It was seen as important for Ireland to assert this right, even though it was not seen as a right that we might wish to exercise.

(The UK's opt-out is in similar terms to Ireland's.)

View wrote: »

In addition, there are no clauses or any conditions in the GFA that state there will be no border in Ireland.

That's because, when the GFA was made, there was already no border in Ireland, and nobody realistically foresaw that the UK might decide to change this. It wouldn't make sense for a treaty to make provision for things that have already been accomplished and that are not threatened.

View wrote: »

Nor is there any clause in the GFA that prohibited the U.K. from leaving the EU if it so desired - again another event that would have triggered a border scenario.

Again, because that was not foreseen as a realistic possiblity.

View wrote: »

And, irrespective of all of the above, the commitment to peaceful, democratic means was unconditional. There was and is no “Ah, but if X does Y or Z, we will all go back to violence” in the GFA.

No, of course there wasn't. What's your point? The fact that the GFA didn't provide for return to violence certainly doesn't mean that, if the GFA is undermined, there won't be a return to violence.

Besides, there's more at stake here than a possible return to violence. The GFA produces a settlement built on parity of esteem and parity of treatment that both communities in NI are entitled to. Undermining the GFA is objectionable even if it doesn't result in a return to violence.

Zubeneschamali

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Especially Sinn Fein who have been at loggerheads with FG and FF for the last decade, who are generally eurosceptic and who are also sometimes in power in the North could easily have decided to weigh in on Brexit at any stage for their own political gain to the detriment of the country.

Brexit is all of Sinn Fein's Christmasses wrapped up in a parcel. They just have to sit back and watch the UK disintegrate.

Zubeneschamali

View wrote: »

In addition, there are no clauses or any conditions in the GFA that state there will be no border in Ireland.

I didn't say there was. I said the Single Market was one of the things which made the GFA possible.

Fuascailteoir

5GMadeMeDoIt wrote: »

As far as violence goes if customs posts go up, the most likely manifestation will probably be in fairly large civil riots in Derry and Belfast. Problem then comes from how the authorities act and if dissidents or loyalists decide to stick their oar in. Things can escalate fairly quickly as the past has shown.

The most likely would be shooting at customs/soldiers at border posts. What wages would you want to be getting to stand on a border road between cavan and fermanagh checking cars and trucks. I could envision that it won't take long before there are shots fired

Enzokk

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I heard an interesting insight that the whole issue around immigraton was just a cockup of bad strategy.

They wanted to diffuse the whole immigration issue by setting a fixed target which initially was more or less in line with current trends. Basicly saying the then current amount of immigration is the right amount of immigration and we definatly wont let in more than just so happen to be comming anyway.

Then in the following years immigration started going up and they were unable to either meet the target they had set, or change the target for political reasons. They didn't really want to meet the target and did nothing to introduce actual measures to limit immigration, but at the same time it was a target they were failing to meet which got under May's skin as the minister responsible.

Basicly they hung themselves with the policy they thought would take the heat out of the issue. Kind of like how the Brexit vote turned out really.

Maybe from Cameron it was a cockup of a strategy, from the likes of May if this is just a mess up she sure is vindictive in trying to deliver this bad strategy. The go-home vans to the Windrush Generation persecution, those aren't bad ideas but seems very targeted towards those immigrants.

If it was this government with its ministers in place based on loyalty and not talent you may have a point, but I don't think this is true of the coalition.

anotherfinemess

Fuascailteoir wrote: »

The most likely would be shooting at customs/soldiers at border posts. What wages would you want to be getting to stand on a border road between cavan and fermanagh checking cars and trucks. I could envision that it won't take long before there are shots fired

They could always just give us back the six counties.......problem solved!

Imreoir2

Enzokk wrote: »

Maybe from Cameron it was a cockup of a strategy, from the likes of May if this is just a mess up she sure is vindictive in trying to deliver this bad strategy. The go-home vans to the Windrush Generation persecution, those aren't bad ideas but seems very targeted towards those immigrants.

If it was this government with its ministers in place based on loyalty and not talent you may have a point, but I don't think this is true of the coalition.

Take the vans as an example, a completely inneffective measure to make it look like you are trying while really doing nothing. May did become obsesed with immigration, mainly because she was responsible for reaching a target that her government had no interest in actually acheiving. It really got to her that she could never reach that target and she blamed the EU for the increase in migration that she could not stop.

LuckyLloyd

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

It is unquestionably a risk, that has been signalled from the outset. But I'm not sure that it's a dead cert that a physical border will lead to violence. Who exactly is going to be destroying it?

A. The Provisionals - it seems to me that they have the greatest incentive to stick to the GFA, even if the British Government does not. So an end to the ceasefire is probably not an option. Certainly, no one has signalled from PIRA army council that they would consider it such a breach as to end the ceasefire.
B. Splinter groups - the most likely candidates, but I'm not sure they have the capacity for such an audacious attack. They don't accept the ceasefire, but other than the Omagh bombing and maybe a few other minor incidents, they haven't really shown the capacity to attack on such a scale.
C. Loyalists/Unionists - again unlikely, as they are quite content to be split off from the Irish State.
D. Random disaffected yoofs - possible, but again I don't see them being capable of doing much more than e.g. graffiting them, getting talked to by the Gardai/PSNI and then quitting it. This risk is similar to the risk considered when they introduced Dublin Bikes, and it largely didn't materialise.

I think it is important to point out the risk of violence caused by a physical border. But it is more important to point out the less sensational aspects of it. People being hassled when they visit their pals in Strabane/Lifford. No cheap groceries from Enniskillen, nor days out shopping in Dublin. A plumber in Dundalk cannot legally call out for an emergency job in Newry. Having to bring your passport when you want to see the Titanic Exhibition. Long delays on the roads. Extra paperwork for hauliers. Not being able to send your Cavan milk to the local creamery in Fermanagh. The list goes on and on.

These are the real problems with Brexit. Having told 1.8 million odd people that they can identify as British, or Irish, or both, or neither, they will now be visibly reminded that if they are Irish, they are living under a foreign jurisdiction. The DUP's argument that they would feel the same if there was a sea border holds very little weight. Many if not most of their goods coming from GB come through Dublin anyway as its quicker and easier, and that there might be some low level checks on those goods that enter a port in Scotland and transit over to Northern Ireland (but not on the reverse journey) is not something that impacts the daily life of an Ulster Unionist in any meaningful way.

I think that is the message, rather than the return to violence.

Nobody knows who it will be. It won’t be the Provisional IRA, I’d be certain about that. They have no capacity to do anything anymore and are old men. I don’t think it will be any of the splinter groups effectively doing anything either as they are incompetent and don’t have support networks, etc. However individuals from these groups may play a part.

In 1969 and 1970 it was younger people previously unknown to the authorities and without criminal records who vaulted to organising positions in the Provisional IRA. It will be the same again this time. It will be a new wave of people in their late teens, 20’s and 30’s who refuse to accept an outpost and find newer technologically savvy ways to organise and resist.

We grow complacent by thinking about the men of the past and present and how old, incompetent and outdated they are. We cannot predict or foresee the character of what’s coming just like they could not in 1968 because it will be new and organic and unknown.

murphaph

anotherfinemess wrote: »

They could always just give us back the six counties.......problem solved!

I wouldn't even put it past the Tories under Cummings to be making NI so hated by English nationalists that pressure mounts to jettison the place and further cement Tory rule in Westminster. I'm not convinced by anything these guys say about their precious union.

Actions speak louder than words and so far only England's will has been done in all this. Only lip service has been paid to the wishes of NI and Scotland.

Leroy42

A letter from Gove has been 'leaked showing a "Reasonable Worst Case Scenario", which sounds suspiciously like what they expect will happen.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1308648304553717760?s=19

This of course comes the day after Johnsons announcement of new Covid regulations and the new line that it will be done to the EU being complete rotters.

A two day queue? That is pretty serious in terms of transport.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

A letter from Gove has been 'leaked . . .

I don't think it's a leak. Gove sent the letter yesterday; it's a matter of public record.

murphaph

They're beginning the soften the public up about what they appear to know is coming in January. Soften the public up and reinforce the foreign enemy myth. It's not dissimilar to what's going on in Belarus.

beggars_bush

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Brexit is all of Sinn Fein's Christmasses wrapped up in a parcel. They just have to sit back and watch the UK disintegrate.

I don't know. Would you want them running anything?

The Raging Bile Duct

murphaph wrote: »

They're beginning the soften the public up about what they appear to know is coming in January. Soften the public up and reinforce the foreign enemy myth. It's not dissimilar to what's going on in Belarus.

Well, they had the easiest trade deal in history ready to go which involved them doing whatever they wanted and still having access to the single market but the EU aren't playing ball so it's the EU's fault.

Peregrinus

Well, they were always going to prepare industry and the public for signficantly increased friction at the borders because they were perfectly aware that, even if they secured the FTA they demanded, that FTA meant signficantly increased friction at the borders.

And they were always going to blame (a) the EU; (b) the French; (c) the haulage industry; (d) the ferry companies; (e) other industries; (f) the Covid-19 pandemic and (g) malicious fairies, in that order, for the signficantly increased friction. What, you thought they were going to acknowledge that it was the direct, entirely forseeable and widely forseen outcome of their own unconstrained policy choices?

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

A letter from Gove has been 'leaked showing a "Reasonable Worst Case Scenario", which sounds suspiciously like what they expect will happen.

A two day queue? That is pretty serious in terms of transport.

It's going to be more than two days and it's basically the government trying to set up EU as the fall guy to blame (again).

J Mysterio

Some tangible news RE Brexit damage to UK

https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1308694667354144769

GazzaL

Leroy42 wrote: »

A letter from Gove has been 'leaked showing a "Reasonable Worst Case Scenario", which sounds suspiciously like what they expect will happen.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1308648304553717760?s=19

This of course comes the day after Johnsons announcement of new Covid regulations and the new line that it will be done to the EU being complete rotters.

A two day queue? That is pretty serious in terms of transport.

We need to keep increasing direct shipping capacity to/from continental Europe.

Lumen

GazzaL wrote: »

We need to keep increasing direct shipping capacity to/from continental Europe.

Does it make sense though? Couldn't they "simply" have the containers/trucks sealed in the EU for transit across the UK? This feels like it ought to be a solved problem already in other places.

Keeping those trucks separate from those containing goods for import to the UK ought to solve the queuing problem.

LuckyLloyd

GazzaL wrote: »

We need to keep increasing direct shipping capacity to/from continental Europe.

We have been and continue to do so. We know have the capability to move 80% of our output via water directly to the continent. The government have made great strides over the past half decade building this capability.

Gerry T

Lumen wrote:

Does it make sense though? Couldn't they "simply" have the containers/trucks sealed in the EU for transit across the UK? This feels like it ought to be a solved problem already in other places.

That can happen using TIR tagging. But how do you seperate and manage that process. The UK will most likely prioritise UK hauliers over IRL ones, i sense they would enjoy disrupting our supply chain.

I told ya

Lumen wrote: »

Does it make sense though? Couldn't they "simply" have the containers/trucks sealed in the EU for transit across the UK? This feels like it ought to be a solved problem already in other places.

Keeping those trucks separate from those containing goods for import to the UK ought to solve the queuing problem.

Don't think so. How would it play out with thousands of UK trucks parked up and the Irish ones drive past and onto the ferries. And then return journey.

Can't see that happening.

We have to be independent of the UK landbridge. I accept that there will be additional costs and longer times. But what choice do we have?

Otherwise, we're at the mercy of the UK.

54and56

murphaph wrote: »

They're beginning the soften the public up about what they appear to know is coming in January. Soften the public up and reinforce the foreign enemy myth.

Brexit is 99 days away.

We're getting very close to what pilots call "V1", the point at which even if there is a problem with the aircraft you have so much forward momentum that you have to take off as you no longer have enough runway to stop in.

Looks like Oct 30th could effectively be V1 for Brexit as after that point there won't be enough time to get a deal agreed and approved etc unless of course there's a fudge which allows the UK and EU to mutually agree an extension to the transition period to allow the last minute deal to be legislated for.

fly_agaric

Lumen wrote: »

Does it make sense though? Couldn't they "simply" have the containers/trucks sealed in the EU for transit across the UK? This feels like it ought to be a solved problem already in other places.

Keeping those trucks separate from those containing goods for import to the UK ought to solve the queuing problem.

Yeah TIR is what they call it I think. However, if there's chaos at the border I don't know if it will help much. It is also probably easier for UK to fúck with Irish haulage transport with deniability. A blockade of Irish shipping is a much bigger step and am unsure if even the bonkers crowd running the show in the UK would step their aggression up to those levels in event of "no-deal"/not getting what they want from the EU.

54and56

I told ya wrote: »

Don't think so. How would it play out with thousands of UK trucks parked up and the Irish ones drive past and onto the ferries. And then return journey.

Can't see that happening.

We have to be independent of the UK landbridge. I accept that there will be additional costs and longer times. But what choice do we have?

Otherwise, we're at the mercy of the UK.

A no deal Brexit will force us to cut the landbridge apron strings. It's a cheap convenient logistic solution but once it's reliability is removed as a fast predictable route ferry based solutions will emerge and become the norm. That might add some marginal cost to supply chains but in return it will improve the security of those supply chains and remove any reliance on access via the UK landbridge for good.

CelticRambler

Lumen wrote: »

Keeping those trucks separate from those containing goods for import to the UK ought to solve the queuing problem.

Yeah. Sounds simple, doesn't it? Almost as simple as directing people to their nearest coronavirus testing station ... :rolleyes:

I told ya

Lumen wrote: »

Keeping those trucks separate from those containing goods for import to the UK ought to solve the queuing problem.

The words of Sr. Michael (Derry Girls) comes to mind:

" What age are you now?":)

Seriously, my view is if there are delays at the UK ports, then Irish drivers/vehicles will not have an easy time of it. TIR on an Irish vehicle won't count for much with the UK drivers if they're parked up for a day or two.

Most of them are self employed/sub-contractors with vehicle repayments, insurance, etc. It can't end well.

Zubeneschamali

There are sound, logical reasons why the UK should allow Irish TIR traffic to queue seperately from the lorries originating in the UK, so they probably won't- why start being rational now?