Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

timetogo1

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There are sound, logical reasons why the UK should allow Irish TIR traffic to queue seperately from the lorries originating in the UK, so they probably won't- why start being rational now?

You could imagine the UK hauliers being up in arms seeing a pile of Irish or continental trucks passing them by.

Leroy42

The weird thing about the whole border issue, 7000 truck queue, is that unlike many other aspects of Brexit, this was always going to be the case. Once they opted out of the EU, and particularly SM and CU, extra border controls were always going to be necessary. New IT systems, additional holding areas, additional customs officiers.

This could, and should have all been prepared for years ago. But we are down to less than 100 days and still no IT system, still no actual clear procedures.

Zubeneschamali

timetogo1 wrote: »

You could imagine the UK hauliers being up in arms seeing a pile of Irish or continental trucks passing them by.

4 out of 5 lorries leave the UK empty, because the UK imports a lot more goods than they export.

The French will check arriving goods, and will not allow ferries to dock if their yards are full, but there's no sense holding everything up for empty lorries, so it would make sense to have a 2 queue system, empty lorries get just a quick look, whole ferries unloaded hardly slower than today.

This minimises the queues in Kent, so better all round.

Small matter to let TIR traffic use the empty queue, no checks in France anyhow, shrink the queue a bit more.

As I say, this would need a rational plan, so probably won't happen, the UK more likely to think holding Irish lorris hostage is a brilliant plan

Zubeneschamali

I seem to remember that when the Yellowhammer reports were leaking out, they changed the reasonable expected result to call it a reasonable worst case, and never released the real worst case scenario.

I wonder if they have a real worst case here, which they are afraid to release.

murphaph

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

4 out of 5 lorries leave the UK empty, because the UK imports a lot more goods than they export.

The French will check arriving goods, and will not allow ferries to dock if their yards are full, but there's no sense holding everything up for empty lorries, so it would make sense to have a 2 queue system, empty lorries get just a quick look, whole ferries unloaded hardly slower than today.

This minimises the queues in Kent, so better all round.

Small matter to let TIR traffic use the empty queue, no checks in France anyhow, shrink the queue a bit more.

As I say, this would need a rational plan, so probably won't happen, the UK more likely to think holding Irish lorris hostage is a brilliant plan

Even taking a quick look takes precious minutes that add up to huge delays. And paperwork needs to be checked even for empty lorries. Stuff like how much diesel is in the tank etc. becomes relevant at a new customs border (if the UK reduced fuel excise and all our HGVs started filling up in the UK you can be damn sure Revenue will want to levy duties on trucks entering the Republic).

Widdensushi

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

4 out of 5 lorries leave the UK empty, because the UK imports a lot more goods than they export.
n

If they were logical they would be begging for a trade agreement for that reason alone

Sam Russell

Why are they planning for lorry queueing parks in Kent?

Surely in this day and age a simple time slot arrangement would make sense. A lorry does not approach Kent without a time slot in which to be checked. The paper work already lodged and checked for plausibility. Only then will the lorry be allowed to get on the M20.

No, wait - that needs a working software solution, and the very expensive contracts given out to Tory friends and donors are not expected to produce actual results just yet or any time soon.

Of course, there is the problem with driving licences, and other yet to be agreed measures, like cobotage. More cause for likely that the worst case scenario to become a worster case scenario.

ZeroThreat

fly_agaric wrote: »

Yeah TIR is what they call it I think. However, if there's chaos at the border I don't know if it will help much. It is also probably easier for UK to fúck with Irish haulage transport with deniability. A blockade of Irish shipping is a much bigger step and am unsure if even the bonkers crowd running the show in the UK would step their aggression up to those levels in event of "no-deal"/not getting what they want from the EU.

How would it even be possible for the UK to blockade Irish shipping?

Can the ferries after leaving Irish ports not simply avoid British territorial waters or would that make the journey too long?

murphaph

ZeroThreat wrote: »

How would it even be possible for the UK to blockade Irish shipping?

Can the ferries after leaving Irish ports not simply avoid British territorial waters or would that make the journey too long?

It would be too long but if the UK even dreams about such a measure they will face a complete blockade of air and sea routes through the EU. It would be economic suicide, even more so than regular Brexit!

54and56

Widdensushi wrote: »

If they were logical they would be begging for a trade agreement for that reason alone

Well they are, problem is they aren't prepared to pay the price.

Strazdas

The crazy thing is that the predicted chaos and queues at Dover has nothing to do with No Deal happening or not.

It's down to the total failure of Brexit UK to get ready for the introduction of hard borders, something they've had four years to prepare for. One theory I've heard is that they were so arrogant that that they thought they could carry on trading with the Single Market after leaving the EU and without even bothering with customs checks (as they were such an important country).

Leroy42

Strazdas wrote: »

The crazy thing is that the predicted chaos and queues at Dover has nothing to do with No Deal happening or not.

It's down to the total failure of Brexit UK to get ready for the introduction of hard borders, something they've had four years to prepare for. One theory I've heard is that they were so arrogant that that they thought they could carry on trading with the Single Market after leaving the EU and without even bothering with customs checks (as they were such an important country).

It really is the only logical theory. Well that, or they were so worried that had they let the reality become known too far in advance then people would look to revisit the entire shambles.

An Ciarraioch

Gove confirms there will effectively be a regulatory border between Kent and the rest of England:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1308755603247034368

fly_agaric

ZeroThreat wrote: »

How would it even be possible for the UK to blockade Irish shipping?

Can the ferries after leaving Irish ports not simply avoid British territorial waters or would that make the journey too long?

GB is between Ireland and the rest of the EU, no way around that unfortunately.
You can see how Turkey & Russia treat their neighbours at times for examples (taking those 2 countries as a possible UK model for their future relations with the EU).

Attitude of their govt. towards the EU seems to get more rather than less unhinged each year that passes since the Brexit vote so that sometimes makes me wonder/fear where it will all end up.

54and56

fly_agaric wrote: »

GB is between Ireland and the rest of the EU, no way around that unfortunately.
You can see how Turkey & Russia treat their neighbours at times for examples (taking those 2 countries as a possible UK model for their future relations with the EU).

Attitude of their govt. towards the EU seems to get more rather than less unhinged each year that passes since the Brexit vote so that sometimes makes me wonder/fear where it will all end up.

Funny, I've sailed from Cork to Roscoff several times and as far as I can remember the Captain found a way round GB without too much difficulty!!

There's even a map and everything.

fly_agaric

54and56 wrote: »

Funny, I've sailed from Cork to Roscoff several times and as far as I can remember the Captain found a way round GB without too much difficulty!!

There's even a map and everything.

Ha, suppose that will learn me to be more precise with my posting in future...:pac:

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, Gibraltar will treat the UK as a "third country" in the event of no deal:

https://www.gibraltar.gov.gi/press-releases/government-issues-technical-notice-on-movement-of-goods-6452020-6224

murphaph

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gove confirms there will effectively be a regulatory border between Kent and the rest of England:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1308755603247034368

It's kind of funny that they are replacing CAP with KAP.

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gove confirms there will effectively be a regulatory border between Kent and the rest of England:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1308755603247034368

And here he is on the floor explaining the permit,

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1308779299214852096?s=20

I don't get it though, are they not just pushing the problem further up from Kent? There will be a problem of trucks not having the documentation they need to go to Europe and they will be stopped before going to Kent. So the next counties up, Sussex, London and Surrey will have to deal with those trucks not being allowed into Kent. Tell me I am missing something here.

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

And here he is on the floor explaining the permit,

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1308779299214852096?s=20

I don't get it though, are they not just pushing the problem further up from Kent? There will be a problem of trucks not having the documentation they need to go to Europe and they will be stopped before going to Kent. So the next counties up, Sussex, London and Surrey will have to deal with those trucks not being allowed into Kent. Tell me I am missing something here.

According to this, Kent is going to have a lot more lorry parks at great expense:

https://twitter.com/jdpoc/status/1308761909383045127?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I doubt taking back control meant concreting over England's garden but here we are. The queue could reach 7,000 or thereabouts. It's quite a grim picture.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

According to this, Kent is going to have a lot more lorry parks at great expense:

https://twitter.com/jdpoc/status/1308761909383045127?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I doubt taking back control meant concreting over England's garden but here we are. The queue could reach 7,000 or thereabouts. It's quite a grim picture.

I can see the UK seeking an extension as a result of the Covid 2nd wave - who could have seen the second wave coming?

If they do seek an extension, it should be for 24 months.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I can see the UK seeking an extension as a result of the Covid 2nd wave - who could have seen the second wave coming?

If they do seek an extension, it should be for 24 months.

The deadline for that has passed. Even if it were still possible, I would imagine that the EU are sick to the back teeth of the conservative party's shenanigans at this stage.

In any case, the first step to getting an extension is the government realising that it needs one. It had an opportunity to get one earlier this year without the political consequences and it deigned not to do so.

It might be possible with some legal fudgery but as I said above, I can't see the EU having any goodwill remaining beyond what's necessary for diplomatic purposes.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

I can see the UK seeking an extension as a result of the Covid 2nd wave - who could have seen the second wave coming?

If they do seek an extension, it should be for 24 months.

2 more years of this? No! Please no.

Enzokk

Sam Russell wrote: »

I can see the UK seeking an extension as a result of the Covid 2nd wave - who could have seen the second wave coming?

If they do seek an extension, it should be for 24 months.

Nah, all experts were telling us there would be a second, third and fourth wave of Covid-19. That is no excuse and doubt the EU would see fit to allow the UK to use it as one.

Imreoir2

timetogo1 wrote: »

You could imagine the UK hauliers being up in arms seeing a pile of Irish or continental trucks passing them by.

Much better to be sat waiting behind them. :rolleyes:
But I agree, they will go for a worse option becasue its the principle that counts.

briany

Sam Russell wrote: »

I can see the UK seeking an extension as a result of the Covid 2nd wave - who could have seen the second wave coming?

If they do seek an extension, it should be for 24 months.

Who could have seen the whole Covid thing happening generally (apart from Bill Gates and a range of those reviled experts)?

The fact that the British government didn't really seem to mind the impact of the first wave on Brexit negotiations makes me sceptical that they'd mind the impact of the second. To do such an about-face would be perceived as something of a climbdown by the usual rags. Maybe if they had a different government in place before Christmas, then I could see it, but otherwise...

unit 1

I know it sounds daft but I wonder if the possibility of buying/building/creating our own "treaty ports" in gb would ever have been an option.

I mean in theory could our gov own a port on the gb west/east coast, with the tories permission of course.

Seth Brundle

Sam Russell wrote: »

I can see the UK seeking an extension as a result of the Covid 2nd wave - who could have seen the second wave coming?

If they do seek an extension, it should be for 24 months.

If an extension were to be discussed, it needs to be with milestones that the UK must meet or the extension ends immediately.

Snickers Man

Lumen wrote: »

Does it make sense though? Couldn't they "simply" have the containers/trucks sealed in the EU for transit across the UK? This feels like it ought to be a solved problem already in other places.

LOL!!

I take it you have never experienced the sclerotic chaos that is the motorway system around London at the BEST of times, never mind when a host of new paperwork, procedures, checks, queries and general all round hassle is introduced in Dover on January 1st next year??

The M25 ring road around London, which any truck from Ireland would have to negotiate for at least part of its journey is, not without justification, labelled the biggest car park in Europe.
I know.
I used to live there.
I used to commute around the southern part of it. The same bit that any Irish trucks coming from Rosslare/Pembroke or Fishguard (do they even sail there any more?) would have to negotiate. Those coming from Dublin direction would probably go down the northern part driving clockwise before picking up the M2 or M20 routes to Dover.
I literally emigrated to avoid that congestion. And that was during the Single Market.

It doesn't bear thinking about how clogged that roadway is going to get post January. We don't want to be sending "our boys" into that maelstrom.

Extend motorway to Rosslare right away. Find out who's making the fastest ferries in teh world capable of plying the Rosslare-Cherbourg/Le Havre route. And buy a few of them!!

Sam Russell

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If an extension were to be discussed, it needs to be with milestones that the UK must meet or the extension ends immediately.

I doubt the EU would give such an extension for free. There would be quite a few conditions including the binning of the IM bill, the commitment to full implementation of the WA, together of negotiations based on the political declaration attached to the WA.

Of course, I could see the Tories imploding if this was agreed to, but they may have no choice. I think it might be mid November before they even contemplate it unless Trump magics up a victory.