Summer 2020 - General Discussion

Donegal Storm

Neddyusa wrote: »

Funny enough this time last week the forecast was for the Atlantic to take over again from Tuesday/Wednesday - but yet it turned out a mighty week in the west. The best since May easily.
Forecast accuracy gone to pot altogether in these type of conditions.

Forecasts have been awful all summer. I've pretty much discarded ME forecasts this summer as anything more than 24 hours ahead seems to change drastically with little warning

Perhaps a result of too much lazy reliance on NWP models (which seemingly aren't as accurate because of the collapse in aviation) and not enough nuanced knowledge in old school forecasting?

Donegal Storm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Forecasts have been awful all summer. I've pretty much discarded ME forecasts this summer as anything more than 24 hours ahead seems to change drastically with little warning

Perhaps a result of too much lazy reliance on NWP models (which seemingly aren't as accurate because of the collapse in aviation) and not enough nuanced knowledge in old school forecasting?

I can't ever remember a period that has been so inaccurately forecasted. That being said, it's been a weird summer of weather.

Danno

Fog all night and into this morning. It was raining lightly around 3.30am. Unusual for fog and rain together.

Currently 15.3°c

newholland mad

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Forecasts have been awful all summer. I've pretty much discarded ME forecasts this summer as anything more than 24 hours ahead seems to change drastically with little warning

Perhaps a result of too much lazy reliance on NWP models (which seemingly aren't as accurate because of the collapse in aviation) and not enough nuanced knowledge in old school forecasting?

Same here. My livelihood depends on the weather but nowadays I rarely even bother looking at ME. Most of my information comes from some of the regular posters here who put up excellent info and it's very much appreciated.

giveitholly

Whether its Met Eireann's forecast or MT's this morning it looks pretty grim,let's hope it doesn't turn out as bad as that

mean gene

been raining on and off in cork city since thursday morning truly awful dark grey pish

km79

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Forecasts have been awful all summer. I've pretty much discarded ME forecasts this summer as anything more than 24 hours ahead seems to change drastically with little warning

Perhaps a result of too much lazy reliance on NWP models (which seemingly aren't as accurate because of the collapse in aviation) and not enough nuanced knowledge in old school forecasting?

We were just talking about this last night with friends !
That was the general consensus. Have started ignoring forecast.
Yday turned into a CRACKER in south mayo . We were outside until 11pm
This morning is lovely now too
It’s been a great run here for past 10 days. Badly needed

DOCARCH

It's very dark in Dublin....like a cloudy winters day!

appledrop

DOCARCH wrote: »

It's very dark in Dublin....like a cloudy winters day!

Sure we got our one good day in Dublin yesterday. That's our quota now for the rest of month!

Gonzo

appledrop wrote: »

Sure we got our one good day in Dublin yesterday. That's our quota now for the rest of month!

I don't think I've ever seen Dublin/Meath/parts of Kildare and Wicklow lose out so badly while almost everywhere else in Ireland had a week long spell of warm sunshine at the same time as the UK and the continent had a 1 week heatwave.

Summer is all but over now but hopefully things will settle down again during the first week of September for a final spell of fine weather before Autumn shuts the door on warmth till next year. We've had zero luck with the weather throughout this summer. I'd love to see a repeat of September 2016 with a few very warm or hot days. We deserve it after such a poor summer and then the bad luck over the past 1 to 2 weeks.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Whilst opening period of August looks somewhat changeable, I am thinking a bit more positively now about the end of the first week into the middle third of the month.

ECM 12z is an extreme example that would lead us down to heatwave conditions and possibly our warmest August period since 2003 if it were to verify. The below chart would be conducive to a more prolonged pattern than just anything transient. In fact, I'd say it would be very similar to spring but given the time of year, it'd be much warmer.

Other models not as keen as this but I must say, I am not seeing a washout at all or even the cool/dull signal that has plagued this summer since the end of the June warm period.

An ongoing theme has been that the teleconnections will be more in favour of a warmer, dry period during August compared to what we've seen this summer. I was somewhat skeptical at first due to bias in models but looks like a trend now to me.

I'll update another time on the matter. Don't get bogged down on individual runs at the moment, it's not looking bad

I don't like to tout my own horn on forecasting these days because it's all luck but I like to bring this particular post back up at the end of July and like to reflect. This post was based upon a change in global circulation that would be more favourable to a pattern conducive to warmer, drier weather for Ireland compared to June or July. This indeed verified and the same teleconnections I refer to favour a return to an Atlantic dominated pattern. Autumnal weather in the second half of August is nothing unusual anyway.

The east has been unlucky. The airmass became a lot more unstable than what models were showing at this time when I posted this thus severe thunderstorms occurred in west English Midlands and even parts of Scotland. As a result, this airmass was very moisture-laden with high humidity and fog/mist being the result on the east coast that you typically find in east Scotland or NE England during these spells.

Would have loved a staycation in Kerry this spell going by the videos and images I've seen. Best spell of August weather for many, many years for some whilst a forgettable period for others.

Donegal Storm

Another beautiful day in Donegal, warm, sunny and flat calm. A layer of high cloud today but it's thin enough that the sun has been shining through all morning, perfect day for lazing in the garden

Oneiric 3

Sun broke though after 5pm yesterday and while nice and welcome, was nothing out of the ordinary for an average August evening. I cannot see how this spell can be classed 'extraordinary' for the west. It hasn't. It's been 95% low heavy cloud and 5% broken sunshine. Cloudy again today but at least the cloud itself doesn't have that uniformly yellow brown grey colour it has sported over the previous days.

JCX BXC

Gonzo wrote: »

I don't think I've ever seen Dublin/Meath/parts of Kildare and Wicklow lose out so badly while almost everywhere else in Ireland had a week long spell of warm sunshine at the same time as the UK and the continent had a 1 week heatwave.

Ah cmon, that's a bit much. Here in West Clare, it hasn't been sunny in days, just warm and sickeningly humid with stubborn overcast skies. Much of the south coast have experienced the same if not worse.

It's not just Dublin/Meath/Kildare!

Oneiric 3

Although last August was incredibly wet for many parts, I can safely say that it was also far sunnier month that this year's exhibit so far.

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

I don't like to tout my own horn on forecasting these days because it's all luck but I like to bring this particular post back up at the end of July and like to reflect. This post was based upon a change in global circulation that would be more favourable to a pattern conducive to warmer, drier weather for Ireland compared to June or July. This indeed verified and the same teleconnections I refer to favour a return to an Atlantic dominated pattern. Autumnal weather in the second half of August is nothing unusual anyway.

The east has been unlucky. The airmass became a lot more unstable than what models were showing at this time when I posted this thus severe thunderstorms occurred in west English Midlands and even parts of Scotland. As a result, this airmass was very moisture-laden with high humidity and fog/mist being the result on the east coast that you typically find in east Scotland or NE England during these spells.

Would have loved a staycation in Kerry this spell going by the videos and images I've seen. Best spell of August weather for many, many years for some whilst a forgettable period for others.

You definitely nailed that forecast for August, it's just unfortunate we became an anomaly not seen anywhere else in Ireland or Europe with no summer to show for it. A staycation in the west would have been great over the past 10 days or so.

We all suffered a truly horrible July, nowhere escaped that trainwreck of a month. If world events were normal I should have enjoyed over 2 weeks of July in the south of Spain but instead spent the whole month here looking out at the rain or mist.Usually when i go to Spain, the weather here is always really good but not this year when holiday plans went belly up.

If I could ask for one piece of luck to make up for such a poor run, I would nominate 1 very seasonal week of winter weather in early or mid December this year, a beast of sorts!

pad199207

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Munster, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow, Offaly and Galway

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy, possibly thundery, rain at times overnight and during Monday with accumulations of 25 to 40mm in places. Localised flooding may occur.

Valid: 02:00 Monday 17/08/2020 to 23:59 Monday 17/08/2020

Issued: 12:00 Sunday 16/08/2020

daniel_t1409

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Munster, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow, Offaly and Galway

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy, possibly thundery, rain at times overnight and during Monday with accumulations of 25 to 40mm in places. Localised flooding may occur.

Valid: 02:00 Monday 17/08/2020 to 23:59 Monday 17/08/2020

Issued: 12:00 Sunday 16/08/2020

Wow, I'm losing track of how many weather warnings have been issued the last few weeks. Must be at least 10 since June.

Gonzo

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah cmon, that's a bit much. Here in West Clare, it hasn't been sunny in days, just warm and sickeningly humid with stubborn overcast skies. Much of the south coast have experienced the same if not worse.

It's not just Dublin/Meath/Kildare!

Most of the reports from the west and indeed the south over the past week have been better than here. It may not have been a 2018 in terms of endless blue skies but there was definitely more sunshine everywhere else (which wouldn't be hard) and the current mean temperatures in many western and southern stations are between 0.5 and 1.5C higher than Dunsany and other nearby stations with the exception of the Phoenix Park.

West Clare probably isn't a great example of an area in the west that gets very warm or sunny due to coastal location but areas further inland did very well.

The south and south-west also had the added bonus of interest from thunderstorms, again not all areas got them.

Current mean temperatures from a select range of ME stations show quite a contrast in temperatures.

Athenry - 16.4C
Ballyhaise - 16.1C
Cork - 16.6C
Johnstown Castle - 16.4C
Moore Park - 16.9C
Mount Dillon - 16.3C
Newport - 16.6C
Oak Park - 17.1C
Shannon - 17.1C

Dunsany - 15.7C
Dublin Airport - 15.4C

That's quite a difference and all down to lack of sunshine and warmth for Dunsany/Dublin.

Phoenix Park is 16.7C and I find that strange as there wasn't much sun in Dublin other than 2 warm days and surrounding areas including those further inland are over a degree cooler. Perhaps there is an urban heat affect at play here.

Donegal Storm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah cmon, that's a bit much. Here in West Clare, it hasn't been sunny in days, just warm and sickeningly humid with stubborn overcast skies. Much of the south coast have experienced the same if not worse.

It's not just Dublin/Meath/Kildare!

Seems to be more Donegal, Sligo, North Mayo that's been the sweet spot this month. I think every day since last Friday week has been warm/hot and sunny here (except for a period of rain last Monday evening).

Turning into another scorcher now, cloud burning off nicely in the past hour :cool:

daniel_t1409

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Seems to be more Donegal, Sligo, North Mayo that's been the sweet spot this month. I think every day since last Friday week has been warm/hot and sunny here (except for a period of rain last Monday evening).

Turning into another scorcher now, cloud burning off nicely in the past hour :cool:

Meanwhile, the sun hasn't come out properly in a week in wexford.

Gonzo

another poor day here in Meath. Cool, damp, slate grey skies and drizzly muck - current temperature 15C.

Big temperature contrast now between Dublin/Meath and the far west.

Xenji

A repeat of yesterday in Castlebar, 22.1C currently but wall to wall cloud, a light breeze though is helping with the humidity.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

Most of the reports from the west and indeed the south over the past week have been better than here. It may not have been a 2018 in terms of endless blue skies but there was definitely more sunshine everywhere else (which wouldn't be hard) and the current mean temperatures in many western and southern stations are between 0.5 and 1.5C higher than Dunsany and other nearby stations with the exception of the Phoenix Park.

West Clare probably isn't a great example of an area in the west that gets very warm or sunny due to coastal location but areas further inland did very well.

The south and south-west also had the added bonus of interest from thunderstorms, again not all areas got them.

Current mean temperatures from a select range of ME stations show quite a contrast in temperatures.

Athenry - 16.4C
Ballyhaise - 16.1C
Cork - 16.6C
Johnstown Castle - 16.4C
Moore Park - 16.9C
Mount Dillon - 16.3C
Newport - 16.6C
Oak Park - 17.1C
Shannon - 17.1C

Dunsany - 15.7C
Dublin Airport - 15.4C

That's quite a difference and all down to lack of sunshine and warmth for Dunsany/Dublin.

Phoenix Park is 16.7C and I find that strange as there wasn't much sun in Dublin other than 2 warm days and surrounding areas including those further inland are over a degree cooler. Perhaps there is an urban heat affect at play here.

I bet when the stats are weighed up, that that eastern region still did better for sunshine that us. Of course under an easterly flow, more eastern areas are always going to have slightly suppressed temps compared to the rest of the country, but those higher temperatures in the west have occured mainly under a heavy blanket of cloud, which makess them all the more unpleasant. Also, the west and south has been considerably wetter than the east so far (which has seen very little)

Some stats from Met Eireann for August so far showing rainfall totals, mean max/min and mean temps themselves:

compsys

Gonzo wrote: »

Most of the reports from the west and indeed the south over the past week have been better than here. It may not have been a 2018 in terms of endless blue skies but there was definitely more sunshine everywhere else (which wouldn't be hard) and the current mean temperatures in many western and southern stations are between 0.5 and 1.5C higher than Dunsany and other nearby stations with the exception of the Phoenix Park.

West Clare probably isn't a great example of an area in the west that gets very warm or sunny due to coastal location but areas further inland did very well.

The south and south-west also had the added bonus of interest from thunderstorms, again not all areas got them.

Current mean temperatures from a select range of ME stations show quite a contrast in temperatures.

Athenry - 16.4C
Ballyhaise - 16.1C
Cork - 16.6C
Johnstown Castle - 16.4C
Moore Park - 16.9C
Mount Dillon - 16.3C
Newport - 16.6C
Oak Park - 17.1C
Shannon - 17.1C

Dunsany - 15.7C
Dublin Airport - 15.4C

That's quite a difference and all down to lack of sunshine and warmth for Dunsany/Dublin.

Phoenix Park is 16.7C and I find that strange as there wasn't much sun in Dublin other than 2 warm days and surrounding areas including those further inland are over a degree cooler. Perhaps there is an urban heat affect at play here.

Yes. PP tends to overcook temps a bit while DA definitely does the opposite since it moved to its new location.

It’s mainly down to nighttime temps though.

PP is usually a degree or so warmer during the day but on some nights can remain up to 3 degrees or so warmer than the airport.

Even on nights when min temps end up similar, DA loses its heat far quicker, often reaching close to its overnight low as soon as midnight or so.

And because the 24 hour day is from 1am GMT to 1am (not midnight to midnight) in the summer, a cool night is often spread out over two nights if that makes sense.

Quite often I’ve seen the temp fall by 2 or 3 degrees at DA between midnight and 1am, meaning the station would post average temps a fair bit higher if the day was measured differently.

seamusk84

Is there any chance for the rest of the day?

Dull, damp and cool in Kildare.

sryanbruen

Currently the only sunshine stats for this month so far I have:

Cork Airport - 86.4 hrs
Shannon Airport - 78.6 hrs
Casement - 54.7 hrs
Dublin Airport - 53.4 hrs

Last August in Dublin was the sunniest in 9 years. The first week had good sunshine. An unusually deep depression on the 9th brought the heaviest rainfall I had seen in a while with an overnight deluge, then mid-month was a case of classic Irish weather, sunshine and showers with blustery conditions. The last week was relatively warm with the west dull, wet and humid. One day was nice and sunny - Monday 26th - whilst I found the rest of the period to be rather hazy or cloudy and disappointing - it was another case of England getting the sunshine and heat.

By this point in August last year (to 15th), these were the sunshine totals for the stations above as well as others:

Casement - 89.1 hrs
Malin Head - 83.4 hrs
Dublin Airport - 81.7 hrs
Cork Airport - 74.7 hrs
Belmullet - 67.7 hrs
Shannon Airport - 63.5 hrs

Not a big difference for those (Cork Apt and Shannon) that are sunnier this year than last year considering day length. There certainly needs to be more sunshine recording stations.

Data and that shtuff from Met E.

pad199207

Jean Byrne never even mentioned the rainfall warning on the farming forecast

Pangea

Going by the comments here seems like us in the North West have got the best of the weather, some days were absolutely scorchers here and I haven't left the house without dosing myself with suncream all week. Today is a bit cooler and cloudy in my location but very pleasant all the same.

Kutebride

No jackets all weekend in West Clare. Was expecting a wet weekend. Warm and still in Spanish Point. Sunny in Doolin yesterday.
Today light breeze to use the kite on the sea front. Overcast.