Summer 2020 - General Discussion

Danno

As May trundles on and June beckons on the far horizon means that Summer 2020 is approaching.

How will Summer 2020 be weather-wise in your opinion?

Will the northern blocking patterns continue?

With Covid-19 causing pollution levels to fall sharply, does this in any-way play into weather patterns?

For me, this Spring has had notable similarities with 1995 and I think another summer like 1995 is a possibility this year. :eek:

Discuss!

DOCARCH

Danno wrote: »

For me, this Spring has had notable similarities with 1995 and I think another summer like 1995 is a possibility this year. :eek:

I was in the US for summer 1995, so looking forward to it!

My overriding memory of summer 1995 was reading about a guy (in Dublin) sun burnt and stuck up a chimney!

Danno

Just copying MTC's Summer Outlook in here as I know alot of people will be looking for it and it will get lost in the daily forecasts thread!

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Summer Outlook for 2020 -- In general, expect a near average summer with perhaps a slight bias to warmth, and near average amounts of rainfall. There will probably be a few warm to hot spells mixed in, but not dominating the entire season. It may be somewhat more unsettled in June and early July than later in the summer. Warmth may persist well into September as there is a signal for a warm autumn in general. For those who like thunderstorms, I think the chances are about average but would note that sometimes a near normal pattern is good for the production of one or two good events. So in summary, a bit of everything can be expected and no dominant theme, but as I like to offer forecasts in probability terms, I would add that there is a bigger chance of this "busting" towards warm/dry than cool/wet, so would set the odds at one in five for a cool, wet theme, about 50% for near average and 30% for warm/dry. That might also be a guide to the relative frequency of these different patterns during the summer ahead.

The highlight of the summer nights will be this year's conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn. By July and August, these planets will be prominent and visible most of the evening and middle hours of the night, and culminating in a close pass by the autumn. They are still somewhat distant (as we see them) in the morning skies at present, late June will be the earliest that you can expect to get a good view at a reasonable hour as they will appear a few minutes earlier each night. Another thing you're likely to notice is that full moons this summer will appear lower than we've seen them in recent years, as the lunar declination cycle of 18.6 years reaches maximum range in 2024. What that means is that the summer full moon will also be quite a bit south of the ecliptic plane (where the Sun would be in winter in the same part of the sky) and that means it appears even lower than the mid-winter sun, especially the early July full moon. Mark these dates on your calendar: July 4 and 5 -- the full moon will be seen near Jupiter and Saturn on either evening, probably a bit closer to them on the 5th as it moves past. This will be repeated just before the August full moon on 1st and 2nd, and a few days before the September full moon at the end of August. The close approaches of the Moon in late September and October will involve the waxing "half moon". I will research whether or not there might be occultation events where the Moon passes in front of each planet and let you know if these are going to be visible at the right times for viewing. Meanwhile Venus will very soon end its appearance as a prominent evening star as it drops out of sight in June and early July then begins to appear in the morning skies by late summer. Mars is going to become more visible in the autumn months, rising later than Jupiter and Saturn all summer. Mars will continue to edge further away from those planets and will be on its own in the midnight skies by October and November, starting to approach the familiar winter constellations of Taurus and Orion. It will pass fairly close to Aldebaran (a similar looking object) between Orion and the Pleiades by this coming December.

Gonzo

The next few weeks are looking like plenty of high pressure with some minor interruptions from the Atlantic. Most of the medium to long range models are showing us fairly dry over next few weeks, but today's CFS is showing a bit of a cool and unsettled start to June.

The GFS is showing it more unsettled in 9/10 days time, but we've been chasing that wet outlook for the past month!

Fingers crossed we get a summer that will have shades of 2018 and 1995. 2019 was a very poor year for weather, so we can do with a break for 2020.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

Fingers crossed we get a summer that will have shades of 2018 and 1995. 2019 was a very poor year for weather, so we can do with a break for 2020.

Yes fingers crossed. You are forgetting the glorious summer of 2013!

Jpmarn

A friend of mine thinks that we are in for a rather wet and cool summer this year. I hope he is wrong. Flying off to the Med could be dodgy due to the virus.

Hooter23

With the record polar vortex and now the big drop in CO2 levels...im sure both these will have an effect on the usual summer weather we get...so it has to be different and anything other than our usual summer weather can only be a good thing;)

Gonzo

If the long range models are to be believed this is what we are in store for: Take this all with a pinch of salt as the long range models can go completely pear shaped and not all models are forecasting a similar summer. This is just for fun.

Meteo France: a dryish summer and fairly warm at times, temperature 0.5 to 1C above average for the most part. Signs of it a bit more unsettled towards August.

ECMWF: high pressure dominating for much of the summer. Jet Stream to the north of us much of the time. High pressure intensifies throughout the summer and dominates into the Autumn as well.Once again temperatures around average or a little bit above average and building towards possibly a warm autumn. Relatively dry most of the time, nothing too wet.

DWD: hints of an unsettled start to the summer with northern blocking for June. High pressure moves back over us from mid summer and intensifies into August and beyond into autumn. Average temperatures for the summer, nothing too warm on the horizon. A wetter than average start to the summer, perhaps with the northern blocking causing low pressures to slip south-westwards over Ireland from the north. Turns dryer than average into the second half of summer and into the autumn.

CFS:
A warm start to June but hints of it turning more unsettled as we progress into July. A very dry June overall. High pressure pulls out into the mid Atlantic and jet stream is on a north-west to south-east movement over us, turning us cool and unsettled for July. High pressure over Scandinavia for August, perhaps a flat westerly for us with the jetstream staying over us. August may finish up wetter than average. In general this looks like a fairly mixed and Atlantic dominated summer once we get June out of the way.

Beijing Climate Centre:
An unsettled June with some cool northerlies. June is also looking wetter than average. Heights rise over us during July and dominate into August and the high pressure keeps on going well into Autumn. Plenty of high pressure from July right up to October or early November. Temperatures look average or slightly below average for June then warmer than average from July with August in particular looking quite warm. This carries on into the autumn as well. Generally dry or very dry conditions from July right through August and on well into the autumn with mostly high and dry pattern dominating for perhaps several months.

Mortelaro

Any word of Graces7 ?
No posts in over 2 months,since the Coronavirus situation started

Oscar Bravo

Mortelaro wrote: »

Any word of Graces7 ?
No posts in over 2 months,since the Coronavirus situation started

Seems to have gone off here but posts daily on her blog.

Mortelaro

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Seems to have gone off here but posts daily on her blog.

Ah well that's something

amadangomor

With MT giving up to 28C in his forecast for Thursday and Friday is there a chance of the May record being broken?

Met E has it as 28.4 Kerry(Ardfert Liscahane) 31st 1997.

https://www.met.ie/climate/weather-extreme-records

Gonzo

Gavs weather has released his summer forecast and it is a very interesting watch.

In summary this is shaping up to be a similar summer to 1990 and 1995.

June: cool at times with northerlies and average precipitation
July: mostly dry and very warm
August: high pressure dominates and there is the potential for some hot conditions.

Bare in mind this could all go wrong and a hot summer outlook for the UK does not always verify for Ireland. Could we be on our way to a classic summer? only time will tell.

link to his forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbkiWSWYtEM

Oscar Bravo

Mace head 20 degrees @ 9am.

Clonmel1000

Couldn’t be a better start to summer 2020 weather wise here this morning. Clear blue skies blazing sunshine and warm.Its fabulous.

NIMAN

Gonzo wrote: »

Gavs weather has released his summer forecast and it is a very interesting watch.

In summary this is shaping up to be a similar summer to 1990 and 1995.

June: cool at times with northerlies and average precipitation
July: mostly dry and very warm
August: high pressure dominates and there is the potential for some hot conditions.

Bare in mind this could all go wrong and a hot summer outlook for the UK does not always verify for Ireland. Could we be on our way to a classic summer? only time will tell.

link to his forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbkiWSWYtEM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I have heard on a few occasions the meteorologists tell us it they can only accurately predict weather approx 10 days ahead.

How are people making predictions for July and August?

Surely it's only guessing and if they are right then they'll never stop telling us how accurate they are, and if they are wrong we won't hear a thing mentioned.

Harry Palmr

Fecks sake, no air this morning. Very warm already in Waterford where we've been in a near gale steady breeze in the last few days.

sryanbruen

NIMAN wrote: »

Surely it's only guessing and if they are right then they'll never stop telling us how accurate they are, and if they are wrong we won't hear a thing mentioned.

Most are like that (especially on the Twitter scene) but Gav is not. He verifies his forecasts at the start of the new month or the new season. Check out his recent autumn and winter forecast verifications for example which were a complete flop but spring one has been much better.

It's all luck based at the end of the day which I only came to realise myself after arguing the opposite a few years ago on here. Part of the reason why I lost interest in doing them. So much effort for so little reward.

SleetAndSnow

Happy summer all! Already up to about 20/21 degrees here in cork city this morning. What a great start!

NIMAN

Could someone clarify what temps Met.ie predict as guides for each day?

I always assumed it was shade temps, isn't that how it's done?

It's just that they are saying it will get to 20c where I am in north Donegal today. But I'm already sitting outside in nothing but a pair of shorts at 1030 and it is roasting. I can only imagine how hot it'll be at 3 or 4 after it builds.

Then it has 12c for tomorrow, a massive drop off.

Danno

24.0c reached just after 11am

Xenji

24C already in Castlebar, probably the nicest morning of the whole spell and there have been quite a few.

Gonzo

today could be the warmest day of the year for parts of the west. Yesterday's Arpege had a max value of around 28C. I think 27C is at least possible today in the mid west.

21C here at Dunshaughlin which is already 1C higher than at any stage yesterday. Hopefully the sea breezes won't kick in as temperature limiting as yesterday.

Goldfinch8

Xenji wrote: »

24C already in Castlebar, probably the nicest morning of the whole spell and there have been quite a few.

My favourite morning of the whole spell also. Little or no breeze and that almost continental feel to the morning heat. If ever there was a morning for a leisurely breakfast outside. Glorious.

Oscar Bravo

Met eireann

Weather Fact: The lowest temperature ever recorded for the month of June was recorded on this day back in 1962. It was a chilly -3.3C at Clonsast, Co. Offaly.

pad199207

24.4°c in Kildare at 12:00

SleetAndSnow

Cork airport reporting 21 degrees atm, the highest of the spell so far i believe for the station. About 23 in my own garden currently.

Donegal Storm

NIMAN wrote: »

Could someone clarify what temps Met.ie predict as guides for each day?

I always assumed it was share temps, isn't that how it's done?

It's just that they are saying it will get to 20c where I am in north Donegal today. But I'm already sitting outside in nothing but a pair of shorts at 1030 and it is roasting. I can only imagine how hot it'll be at 3 or 4 after it builds.

Then it has 12c for tomorrow, a massive drop off.

As far as I can tell they go off your nearest weather station which in your case would be Malin Head.

Malin is just about the most useless station in the country for temperature as it's never representative of anything more than the immediate coastal headland. It's always cooler in summer and milder in winter than even just a to couple of miles inland

Gonzo

22C now in Meath, already feeling much warmer than yesterday.

Oneiric 3

Met Eireann temps at 1pm:



Warmest inland again. Tomorrow this heat will (thankfully) shift more to the east, with the likes of Laois, Kilkenny, Kildare etc potentially seeing the highest temps of all of this current spell.

John.Icy

Surely going to be the hottest day of the year out west? 25 at Claremorris, Mt. Dillon and Newport at 1pm. 26.8 to beat. There is some cloud in the midlands and West getting going, hopefully that won't interfere.

Meanwhile a little old 20.3 degrees in D9. Warmer than yesterday. Looks like we'll finally have our proper heat tomorrow before it all cools back down big time.

Danno

Already the hottest day of the year so far in South Laois with 26.2°c on the AWS at 1.30pm!

DOCARCH

Newport reporting 26c at 1400.

igCorcaigh

A chilly - 99C in Cork according to met.ie

Feels warmer though.

pad199207

25.3°c in Kildare

Danno

Hit 26.5c on the AWS before a bit of a breeze kicked off. Currently 25.8c in South Laois

Gonzo

still 22C here in Meath, sea breezes kicked in around 2pm.

pad199207

Breeze is to die for here now. It’s a very warm breeze so doesn’t feel like a sea breeze

Gaoth Laidir

NIMAN wrote: »

Could someone clarify what temps Met.ie predict as guides for each day?

I always assumed it was shade temps, isn't that how it's done?

It's just that they are saying it will get to 20c where I am in north Donegal today. But I'm already sitting outside in nothing but a pair of shorts at 1030 and it is roasting. I can only imagine how hot it'll be at 3 or 4 after it builds.

Then it has 12c for tomorrow, a massive drop off.

It's always shade temperature, in that it's a sensor shaded in a Stevenson Screen but which itself is out in an open grass area. It's only measuring the temperature of the air. The temperature you feel on your skin in sunshine is not the same thing at all. Objects heat up when exposed to the sun (try sitting down on a dark deck chair after it's been sitting unoccupied under the sun), but that has nothing got to do with reported air temperature.

I saw someone posting an image of a mercury thermometer sitting on a sunny ledge in their garden and it was reading 42 degrees. They tried to claim it was 42 degrees in their garden. If that's the case it was 70 degrees in my driveway the other day when the bonnet of my car almost burnt my hand...

Gaoth Laidir

Newport still holding steady at 26 C at 3 pm. A host of 25s being reported.

DOCARCH

Newport reporting 27c at 4pm.

hawkwing

Just saw a fairy wind lift cut hay a few hundred feet in the sky,couldn't believe how high it went.SE Tipp

pauldry

Hottest day of the Summer so far.

Newport 27c

Chris_5339762

pauldry wrote: »

Hottest day of the Summer so far.

Newport 27c

It has to be, its June 1st which is the first day of the summer. So by definition


Runs

Gaoth Laidir

pauldry wrote: »

Hottest day of the Summer so far.

Newport 27c

Newport has hit 27 (26.8) the other days too. Without that damned decimal we won't know yet if it's beaten that figure.

EDIT: I get the joke now...

Strange that Newport has hit 27 despite a southwesterly wind, which would be more from the coast. It may have only just turned southwesterly now.

PsMETAR NEWP 011500Z AUTO 25005KT //// // ////// 27/09 1024 MSL=

Max was 24.7 at 3pm North Kerry.
Currently 22.7

SleetAndSnow

About 22 degrees consistently in my garden in cork city, possibly for up to 23. Still lovely, little to no breeze. Just amazing.

Danno

26.8c on the AWS in Durrow at 5pm

Meteorite58

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Max was 24.7 at 3pm North Kerry.
Currently 22.7

Max of 24.3C and currently 22.8C here near Tralee, Some day. Looks like everybody got sunshine today.

Rh down to 48%, 51 % atm.

Sat Pic : NASA from earlier today

Danno

https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1267507716660105217?s=20

Gonzo

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Max of 24.3C and currently 22.8C here near Tralee, Some day. Looks like everybody got sunshine today.

Rh down to 48%, 51 % atm.

Sat Pic : NASA from earlier today

you can see the start of brown land over eastern areas from that image.