Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

So you are telling me that all the deaths in 1969 were recorded accurately?

Medical statistics are notoriously unreliable, based on estimates etc., that's the nature of the beast. True for all outbreaks. I've seen estimates of between 1-4 million deaths for 68-69 flu. (Between 17 million and 100 million estimated for Spanish flu deaths)

Whether they are accurate, undercounted, overcounted or what I couldn't tell you cause there's no way of knowing.

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

No the truth is that many posters here are deeply confused about timeframes re pandemics. Hong Kong flu did not flare continuously for two years. Nor did 1918-19 Spanish Flu.

The claim that 3 or more months of covid constitutes something like a 'very, very' short period of time, or 'much, much' shorter period than other outbreaks is probably the most consistently wrong assumption on these threads.

I don't even think posters are being dishonest here, they are just confused.

Almost as wrong as the assumption that measures that resulted in the removal of greater than 90% of the opportunities for infection had absolutely no effect, and therefore it can be concluded Covid 19 is less severe than flu

Jinglejangle69

stephenjmcd wrote: »

If you look back at my post history I've been saying people should be out. I've been out, I'm completely against people living like hermits so a bit of perspective please and dont be jumping to conclusions.

I think its hypocritical for him to be telling us to keep 2m and won't budge on it when it looks like he didn't observe it himself. We're quite quick to point out the flaws in the UK when someone in power there breaks the rules. That's the point.

Get over yourself

Looks like he kept his distance from everyone except his partner.

But sure be outraged of it makes your Monday more productive.

I don’t see how Leo is breaking any rule. He’s within 5km and it’s his partner who is close to him. Am I missing something? Can someone enlighten me?

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

Almost as wrong as the assumption that measures that resulted in the removal of greater than 90% of the opportunities for infection had absolutely no effect, and therefore it can be concluded Covid 19 is less severe than flu

But I've mostly said that lockdown is unproven and I would like to see proof either way. You've been better than most on this question with your post on the other thread comparing Sweden to other N. Euro countries.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

If you look back at my post history I've been saying people should be out. I've been out, I'm completely against people living like hermits so a bit of perspective please and dont be jumping to conclusions.

I think its hypocritical for him to be telling us to keep 2m and won't budge on it when it looks like he didn't observe it himself. We're quite quick to point out the flaws in the UK when someone in power there breaks the rules. That's the point.

Get over yourself

In no photo i've seen is it clear that he isn't keeping 2m from anyone he does not live with

stephenjmcd

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Looks like he kept his distance from everyone except his partner.

But sure be outraged of it makes your Monday more productive.

My Monday is extremely productive thanks, theres not a chance based off the video that he's 2m from the others.

But sure look we're all breaking it including him now.

It's just hypocritical to continue to tell us to keep our distance. Do as I say not as I do. That's all.

Jinglejangle69

stephenjmcd wrote: »

My Monday is extremely productive thanks, theres not a chance hes 2m from the others.

But sure look we're all breaking it including him now

In your opinion it's not 2 metres.

What Username Guidelines

bb1234567 wrote: »

And is the situation with COVID not worse then given that history of other pandemics? COVID clearly remains at a quite an inflated and protracted curve even with a lockdown and other measures stamping rates of infections down. I guess it will be interesting to see how long the the natural lifespan of the curve is in a more or less unintervened way in Brazil and Mexico

Interesting to see Switzerland's curve with easing restrictions from 27th April..

Call me Al

yourdeadwright wrote: »

If its form yesterday and that's a big "IF" its clear as day he was not keeping 2 meters from his friends ,

May seem like an over reaction but how are politicians so stupid, stand up in front of the country spelling out the rules then break them in public,

The one long-distance grainy photo I saw was pretty hard to read wrt social distancing. But considering his partner's current job i would find it extremely doubtful that they would be behaving irresponsibly, and taking foolish risks.
Also, considering the way depth perception in photographs can be manipulated I'm almost of the opinion that aerial photos are the only trustworthy source anymore.

growleaves

Call me Al wrote: »

The one long-distance grainy photo I saw was pretty hard to read wrt social distancing. But considering his partner's current job i would find it extremely doubtful that they would be behaving irresponsibly, and taking foolish risks.
Also, considering the way depth perception in photographs can be manipulated I'm almost of the opinion that aerial photos are the only trustworthy source anymore.

If it becomes a controversy then someone should ask the photographer what lense he used.

stephenjmcd

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Interesting to see Switzerland's curve with easing restrictions from 27th April..

Mirrors the experience of other countries that lifting restrictions seem to have very little dramatic effect.

Although if it is simply dying out that's problematic in terms of vaccine development

D.Q

looks like positive news with italy and switzerland seemingly unaffected by relaxing restrictions

Boggles

This Thread.

Kill it!

sheepsh4gger

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-s-coronavirus-restrictions-may-lift-more-quickly-if-case-numbers-keep-falling-1.4261412

If they opened on 17th of May then around 1st of June we should see another bump in the figures. At the moment people are spreading/catching the virus but it takes time to incubate.

I bet next week they will be calling for a lockdown extension and shame people. Very predictable but as usual the jurnos can't see it.

ChikiChiki

Leo did nothing wrong. Operated within the limits set out. Can't help feel that this is being used as a stick to beat him with by critics.

I've been a massive critic in the past right through the GE but he deserves credit for how he has steered the ship through the pandemic.

yourdeadwright

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Leo did nothing wrong. Operated within the limits set out. Can't help feel that this is being used as a stick to bead him with by critics.

I've been a massive critic in the past right through the GE but he deserves credit for how he has steered the ship through the pandemic.

He didn't actually, clearly was closer than 2 meters to his friends,

Nothing to get in a fuss over but lets called a spade a spade he wasn't two meters apart,

Also no he doesn't deserve credit, he mad a mess of nursing homes, of testing, of closing borders, He actually made a balls of it,

The Nal

yourdeadwright wrote: »

So what's everyone's thoughts on the latest photos/videos of Leo and his four mates sunbathing in Phoenix park yesterday,

How do we know it was yesterday?

yourdeadwright

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

In your opinion it's not 2 metres.

He is clearly closer than 2 meters in the photos and video,

You literally have no idea of measurements if you think other wise,
He's about 2 foot from his friends in some of the pics,

yourdeadwright

The Nal wrote: »

How do we know it was yesterday?

I was thinking the same but someone posted a link a few pages back confirming it was form yesterday ,

yourdeadwright

People who say sure he's just a normal person like the rest of us,

NO NO HE'S NOT

If you don't understand that the figure head of a country needs to act and behave in a different manner, than you my friend are lying or an idiot ,

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

But I've mostly said that lockdown is unproven and I would like to see proof either way. You've been better than most on this question with your post on the other thread comparing Sweden to other N. Euro countries.

To me at this is an argument is academic anyway. My view was lockdown could last not much longer than 2 months anyway, before other damage started to outweigh the disease

lbj666

Boggles wrote: »

This Thread.

Kill it!

Seconded, this is going to be worst than the difference between median mean and average debate.

marno21

The Nal wrote: »

How do we know it was yesterday?

It has been confirmed by the Taoiseach’s office. He met two friends with his partner in the Phoenix Park yesterday, less than 5km from his current temporary residence at Farmleigh Lodge. The two friends they met live more than 5km from the Taoiseach’s residence hence the neutral venue.

An absolute non story if ever I saw one

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/varadkar-and-partner-living-at-farmleigh-lodge-during-pandemic-39231145.html

Hmmzis

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-s-coronavirus-restrictions-may-lift-more-quickly-if-case-numbers-keep-falling-1.4261412

If they opened on 17th of May then around 1st of June we should see another bump in the figures. At the moment people are spreading/catching the virus but it takes time to incubate.

I bet next week they will be calling for a lockdown extension and shame people. Very predictable but as usual the jurnos can't see it.

Median incubation period is ~5 days, if here would still be noticeable community spread we should have seen an uptick already.
So far it looks to be mostly localised outbreaks where distancing measures couldn't be impemented that keep the cases going.
We'll see a better picture towards the end of the week.

This bug really seems to be a close quarters crowd rider. The moment crowds get eliminated, case counts nosedive.

Ghost Train

The public information booklet on covid 19

Increase your distance from others – keep separate by at least
1 metre (3ft), ideally at least 2 metres (6ft)

Looks like he's at greater than 1meter distance, less than 2m. Doesnt seem like too big a deal

In an office, school or business indoor situation. Planning out space I'd imagine planning for 2meters is wise. Is it going to always be possible for people to stay 2m apart, probably not all the time, should the advice still be 2m, probably

nacho libre

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-s-coronavirus-restrictions-may-lift-more-quickly-if-case-numbers-keep-falling-1.4261412

If they opened on 17th of May then around 1st of June we should see another bump in the figures. At the moment people are spreading/catching the virus but it takes time to incubate.

I bet next week they will be calling for a lockdown extension and shame people. Very predictable but as usual the jurnos can't see it.

Some of the data from countries which have lifted restrictions seems to suggest otherwise. It could be that the virus is fizzling out , but it could come back in another wave during the winter. That is the danger if we don't get a vaccine.

What Username Guidelines

Hmmzis wrote: »

This bug really seems to be a close quarters crowd rider. The moment crowds get eliminated, case counts nosedive.

Seems to be the case alright, would hope things can get moving faster if it appears that way across europe.

hmmm

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Seems to be the case alright, would hope things can get moving faster if it appears that way across europe.

Agreed, but unfortunately it still leaves us with an 80% economy. I don't know how we can do weddings, pubs, churches, public transport etc safely, and unfortunately for us our climate will work against us. Perhaps we need a load of tents and us all putting on an extra layer of jumpers for pubs, restaurants, churches etc., and make the best of it until a vaccine arrives.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-super-spreader-events-reveal-gatherings-to-avoid-2020-5

"The general principle should be: Outside is better than inside; open is better than closed; fewer is better than more people; and stay away from sick people," Dr. Erich Anderer, a neurosurgeon and founding member of the North Brooklyn Runners group, previously told Insider.

bekker

Just add to that 'indoor' and I think it sums it up neatly. cf Hmmzis #8280

s1ippy earlier today linked interesting article on transmission.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...ng-virus-germs

One of the studies indicates that NEPHT should have included ventilation circulation smoke tests in guidelines for business on employee and customer placings.

e.g.