CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

DOCARCH

stephenjmcd wrote: »

There'll be no sort of normality until June quite possibly and even at that international travel wont be up and running for potentially more months after that.

Agree, plus no mass gatherings (sports events, concerts, theatre, etc.) probably this year.

Fr_Dougal

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

You don't know that. Nobody knows that. It could be a year could be two.

There’s a massive prize for coming up with a vaccine. Sure nobody knows for sure, but you can be guaranteed that this is a priority for all the leading pharmaceutical companies who specialise in this area.

ZX7R

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Looks like they're strict lockdown will be extended by another 2 weeks. Restrictions wont be lifted straight away either. It'll be gradual. Lift them and let normal life resume in 1 big go would be reckless

If you read the full report on Italian media yes the lockdown is to be extended but it also says that some localised restrictions may be eased also

MadYaker

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Theres not a chance that in 6 weeks we'll have restrictions lifted.
There'll be no sort of normality until June quite possibly and even at that international travel wont be up and running for potentially more months after that.

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

There will be no festivals in Amsterdam or anywhere else this summer. If you believe there still will be you are sadly mistaken.

How do you know all this for certain? International travel is still possible by the way.

is_that_so

Roger_007 wrote: »

The Swedish approach is much better in the long run. They are advising their people to behave sensibly and by and large, they are doing it. You just have to trust people.

I think it will be be interesting to evaluate approaches and outcomes at the end of all of this. Every country is in essence a laboratory experiment and while many have adopted similar approaches there are some local differences.

Roger_007

Roger_007 wrote: »

I hate that word ‘cocooning’. Let’s call it what it is, it’s effectively the imprisonment of the most vulnerable and fragile people in society and for those who live alone, it’s solitary confinement. We may argue all we like that it’s for the greater good but we cannot ignore the damage that’s being done to the mental health of those who have to suffer it. Isn’t it ironic that in the penal systems of most countries, solitary confinement is not used any more because it is deemed to be too mentally destructive.
One of the, (possibly unintended), consequences of the present policy is if it successful we will end up with a cohort of people who will not be allowed to see the light of day until the disease is completely eradicated, (or a vaccine developed), because they will have no immunity.

People in their 70s + aren't being shut into their houses like a solitary confinement cell in a prison movie.

My dad was out working in his garden yesterday, and spending hours on the phone with his cronies chatting about things.

My father in law was complaining about people worrying about him being isolated and that the same people complained about him smoking in the beer garden of the local pub during last summer so he ended up not going there anymore.

Some older people will be more isolated in that they will not go to the shops and chat with the cashier like they used to, but then again they would have had people complaining about them doing this because they were holding up the queue and delaying them getting home or to their party etc not so long ago.

OscarMIlde

MadYaker wrote: »

Can I ask what information you have to be comfortable making a prediction like that. Nothing I’ve heard from any government says restrictions will last that long. In another 6 weeks when antibody testing becomes available and we can test who is immune people who know they can’t catch this virus aren’t going to accept being to told to stay at home any longer.

What antibody testing? No one knows yet whether these antibody tests work properly. Even if they do, due to the nature of antibody production they will be shortages in supply. I would be very wary of rushed antibody tests to verify anything. Ask any biological researcher, the amount of companies selling crap antibodies is beyond belief. Even if you do find a good antibody there can be variations efficacy between lot and batch numbers. Unless it's a western blot based test, which is very time consuming you're taking it on faith that a positive signal is specific to the antigen you're testing for.

stephenjmcd

MadYaker wrote: »

How do you know all this for certain? International travel is still possible by the way.

International travel is only possible in unavoidable circumstances currently, vast majority of flights are repatriation based. Most countries wont let you in if it's not work related or if you dont live there.

I've had flights for july and august cancelled already, that tells you how long airlines think there will be disruption too.

As for your festival, some of the biggest music festivals in Europe are in serious doubt for July, so I'm sorry but I'd highly doubt you'll be travelling anywhere

iwillyeah1234

DubInMeath wrote: »

People in their 70s + aren't being shut into their houses like a solitary confinement cell in a prison movie.

and thanks to phone technology, an awful lot of those folks are on Facebook, Facetime, Whatsapp etc. and are able to video call their grandchildren.

In an odd way, because of the isolation measures, they're probably EVEN MORE in contact with their grandkids than before. I can only speak for myself, but that's happening with my wider family.

jam_mac_jam

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

There’s a massive prize for coming up with a vaccine. Sure nobody knows for sure, but you can be guaranteed that this is a priority for all the leading pharmaceutical companies who specialise in this area.

Of course, doesn't mean they will do in a year. You don't know, I don't know.

Cork Boy 53

MadYaker wrote: »

How do you know all this for certain? International travel is still possible by the way.

As airlines keep losing money eventually that will stop. In another few months the only aircraft flying will be military. Same story with ferries.

MadYaker

MadYaker wrote: »

Can I ask what information you have to be comfortable making a prediction like that. Nothing I’ve heard from any government says restrictions will last that long. In another 6 weeks when antibody testing becomes available and we can test who is immune people who know they can’t catch this virus aren’t going to accept being to told to stay at home any longer.

Who will get the antibody testing first...nurse who thinks she might have had virus and recovered, or dickhead of to Amsterdam for a festival. Antibody testing may start next month or in may, but for example, UK have ordered 3.5m kits. Do you think anyone who wishes to travel for personnel reason will get one of those? And if you don't, you should not travel. Will take 6 months plus to get this testing to a large enough % of the population to allow reduction of restrictions to the level you are talking about.

Restrictions will slowly lift over the course of 6 months. By this time next year we will be close to normal I would say. But by the summer, pubs and restaurants may be open in restricted numbers, but large events will still be restricted. Sport might restart with limited or no spectators for example. But no one knows really, so I wouldn't be making plans

MadYaker

stephenjmcd wrote: »

International travel is only possible in unavoidable circumstances currently, vast majority of flights are repatriation based. Most countries wont let you in if it's not work related or if you dont live there.

I've had flights for july and august cancelled already, that tells you how long airlines think there will be disruption too.

As for your festival, some of the biggest music festivals in Europe are in serious doubt for July, so I'm sorry but I'd highly doubt you'll be travelling anywhere

None of my July or August flights have been cancelled and any events I’ve planned on attending are still making preparations as usual. When this all kicked off 3 weeks ago we knew the worst of it would be over May and that hasn’t changed yet.

iwillyeah1234

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

Of course, doesn't mean they will do in a year. You don't know, I don't know.

i'm a bit more hopeful - this corona is variant of SARS and MERS, and they've had well over a decade to study those two viruses.

stephenjmcd

MadYaker wrote: »

None of my July or August flights have been cancelled and any events I’ve planned on attending are still making preparations as usual. When this all kicked off 3 weeks ago we knew the worst of it would be over May and that hasn’t changed yet.

Of course they'll be making preparations, doesn't mean they aren't in doubt.

Nobody knew the worst would be over by may, what a stupid statement to make. Nobody knows how long this will go on for. Nothing will be the same for months to come. International travel is a write off for the summer.

iwillyeah1234

Newsflash ( via RTE) : Dominic "Herd Immunity" Cummings has the corona.

MadYaker

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Who will get the antibody testing first...nurse who thinks she might have had virus and recovered, or dickhead of to Amsterdam for a festival. Antibody testing may start next month or in may, but for example, UK have ordered 3.5m kits. Do you think anyone who wishes to travel for personnel reason will get one of those? And if you don't, you should not travel. Will take 6 months plus to get this testing to a large enough % of the population to allow reduction of restrictions to the level you are talking about.

Restrictions will slowly lift over the course of 6 months. By this time next year we will be close to normal I would say. But by the summer, pubs and restaurants may be open in restricted numbers, but large events will still be restricted. Sport might restart with limited or no spectators for example. But no one knows really, so I wouldn't be making plans

Was the dickhead comment really necessary? Obviously nurses should get it first. I’ll travel unless it’s unsafe or unreasonable to and as things currently stand most scientists and governments seem to think that by the end of July it will be safe to do so. Ive made lots of plans but all are refundable.

otnomart

I thought of putting together a brief recap of what we know so far about the known timelines.


US:
Genomic evidence suggests that #COVID19 has been circulating in the US since 15 January , but undetected due to lack of testing
https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/


Europe:

A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on 24 January 2020.

Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on 20 and 21 January.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?fbclid=IwAR1jpHVcw4pBlmcr0JIubridJjIwlSVyV7G3DSQ9iFaMtd-mnX3d9F_WRzM


It was initially thought that the Bavaria epicentre was fully contained.
Now we know that was not the case.
First, because the cases in Italy are linked to that BavPat1.
Second, there was a case in La Gomera, Canaries Islands detected on 31 January - imported from Germany

https://www.epochtimes.de/politik/deutschland/coronavirus-erreicht-la-gomera-deutscher-tourist-ist-erster-coronafall-in-spanien-a3142994.html


Then we have the first recorded death in Europe, in Valencia on 13 February
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-03/valencia-confirma-la-muerte-de-un-hombre-con-coronavirus.html



Then we have the Netherlands: "The Covid-19 disease was already being transmitted among health care workers in Noord-Brabant from as early as 19 February".
https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/28/arrival-covid-19-nl-earlier-thought-study-reveals



Soon after, we have France and Italy:
13 February: first Frenchvictim from Crépy-en-Valois (with no links to neither China nor Italy) started developing symptoms. He was diagnosed after 6 days in Creil hospital.
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronavirusun-premier-malade-francais-est-mort-a-paris-1864414.html

20 February inItaly- first patient from Codogno - diagnosed after 1.5 days in hospital - no known links to China - we now know the link with BavPat1 in Germany


Skiing holidays in Austria, France and Italy; Carnival in Germany and Italy; sporting events... all these international events acted as petri dishes and spread the virus all over Europe.

iwillyeah1234

MadYaker wrote: »

None of my July or August flights have been cancelled and any events I’ve planned on attending are still making preparations as usual. When this all kicked off 3 weeks ago we knew the worst of it would be over May and that hasn’t changed yet.

Easyjet have grounded ALL of their flights this morning. I suspect many other airlines will be doing the same this week.

osarusan

MadYaker wrote: »

When this all kicked off 3 weeks ago we knew the worst of it would be over May and that hasn’t changed yet.

We have no idea really, do we?

I would be very very surprised in that event you are planning on attending goes ahead.

Thousands of people flocking to the country to be packed into a dance venue cheek by jowl is the last kind of thing that gets reopened.

jam_mac_jam

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

i'm a bit more hopeful - this corona is variant of SARS and MERS, and they've had well over a decade to study those two viruses.

I am of course hopeful but I think treatment is more likely then a vaccine. Vaccines for viruses take a lot of time.

My main point is that we don't know at this point how long it will take.

scrubs33

DOCARCH wrote: »

Agree, plus no mass gatherings (sports events, concerts, theatre, etc.) probably this year.

It will be interesting to see how things pan out if the decrease in new cases keeps going. It wouldn't surprise me at all in mid to late May for someone to say 'wouldn't it be great for the national mood if hurling/football/bog snorkeling was to start up again, even behind closed doors' Rolling easing of restrictions from early June as maintaining the strict regime during the summer will prove very difficult.

Roger_007

DubInMeath wrote: »

People in their 70s + aren't being shut into their houses like a solitary confinement cell in a prison movie.

My dad was out working in his garden yesterday, and spending hours on the phone with his cronies chatting about things.

My father in law was complaining about people worrying about him being isolated and that the same people complained about him smoking in the beer garden of the local pub during last summer so he ended up not going there anymore.

Some older people will be more isolated in that they will not go to the shops and chat with the cashier like they used to, but then again they would have had people complaining about them doing this because they were holding up the queue and delaying them getting home or to their party etc not so long ago.

I understood that that people in the at-risk groups are being told not to go outside except for a ‘brief‘ period of exercise...........just like you would get in prison.

iwillyeah1234

otnomart wrote: »

I thought of putting together a brief recap of what we know so far about the known timelines.


US:
Genomic evidence suggests that #COVID19 has been circulating in the US since 15 January , but undetected due to lack of testing
https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/


Europe:

A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on 24 January 2020.

Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on 20 and 21 January.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?fbclid=IwAR1jpHVcw4pBlmcr0JIubridJjIwlSVyV7G3DSQ9iFaMtd-mnX3d9F_WRzM


It was initially thought that the Bavaria epicentre was fully contained.
Now we know that was not the case.
First, because the cases in Italy are linked to that BavPat1.
Second, there was a case in La Gomera, Canaries Islands detected on 31 January - imported from Germany

https://www.epochtimes.de/politik/deutschland/coronavirus-erreicht-la-gomera-deutscher-tourist-ist-erster-coronafall-in-spanien-a3142994.html


Then we have the first recorded death in Europe, in Valencia on 13 February
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-03/valencia-confirma-la-muerte-de-un-hombre-con-coronavirus.html



Then we have the Netherlands: "The Covid-19 disease was already being transmitted among health care workers in Noord-Brabant from as early as 19 February".
https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/28/arrival-covid-19-nl-earlier-thought-study-reveals



Soon after, we have France and Italy:
13 February: first Frenchvictim from Crépy-en-Valois (with no links to neither China nor Italy) started developing symptoms. He was diagnosed after 6 days in Creil hospital.
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronavirusun-premier-malade-francais-est-mort-a-paris-1864414.html

20 February inItaly- first patient from Codogno - diagnosed after 1.5 days in hospital - no known links to China - we now know the link with BavPat1 in Germany


Skiing holidays in Austria, France and Italy; Carnival in Germany and Italy; sporting events... all these international events acted as petri dishes and spread the virus all over Europe.

Karnival in Cologne went ahead , late February , except for one day when Storm Yulia caused cancellations. 250,000 crowd.
https://www.dw.com/en/carnival-celebrations-called-off-in-cologne-d%C3%BCsseldorf-due-to-storm-yulia/a-52487828

Bob24

MadYaker wrote: »

None of my July or August flights have been cancelled and any events I’ve planned on attending are still making preparations as usual. When this all kicked off 3 weeks ago we knew the worst of it would be over May and that hasn’t changed yet.

I absolutely don't know that for sure - It might be the case (optimistic scenario to which I give slightly over 50% probability), or it might not. Depends on how the scenario turns out. The virus could come back / mutate. And even if it doesn't while confinement measures are indeed likely to bring the number of cases under control within the next few weeks it doesn't mean life goes back to business as usual once this is done (see how China is not restricting international's travel to avoid a new outbreak).

And the above is just the public heath front - economies will be severally impacted, companies will go bankrupt, people with become joblesss, etc ... this could also have an impact on travel plans (airlines could go bankrupt or cancel flights for economic reasons, large events could be cancelled due to funding issues, etc).

marno21

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

Newsflash ( via RTE) : Dominic "Herd Immunity" Cummings has the corona.

Running away from 10 Downing Street on Friday didn't help him then.

woohoo!!!

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

Newsflash ( via RTE) : Dominic "Herd Immunity" Cummings has the corona.

aka darwin meets karma

Ger Roe

Roger_007 wrote: »

The Swedish approach is much better in the long run. They are advising their people to behave sensibly and by and large, they are doing it. You just have to trust people.

We tried that.... it didn't work.

yourdeadwright

We will have some horrific days to come here ,

There is no question the hospitals will be over run and large number people will die the goal is to make sure that lasts a week or two and not a month or two,

You'd have to imagine mid April will be the height of this and pray to god we don't have to many health workers having to sit out due to being infected, ITs so important for the peak we have as many of our hero's able to fight it,

DOCARCH

scrubs33 wrote: »

It will be interesting to see how things pan out if the decrease in new cases keeps going. It wouldn't surprise me at all in mid to late May for someone to say 'wouldn't it be great for the national mood if hurling/football/bog snorkeling was to start up again, even behind closed doors' Rolling easing of restrictions from early June as maintaining the strict regime during the summer will prove very difficult.

I think the priority will be to get everybody back to work, then look at the likes of sports, as you suggest, possibly behind closed doors.