CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

marno21

UK spokesperson on the news there at 10 expects the heavy lockdown to continue for 2-3 weeks.

Six months of the current situation is simply untenable.

Fr_Dougal

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

This time next year there will be a vaccine. Stop scaremongering.

Can you tell me an example of a working vaccine for a strain of Coronavirus? You seem to know a lot about this.
We have to develop it, prove its safe, prove its effective and then think of a way to roll it out to 60% plus of the population. Easy!

hawkwing

This is an unprecedented situation and everyone has a part to play.

Roger_007

I hate that word ‘cocooning’. Let’s call it what it is, it’s effectively the imprisonment of the most vulnerable and fragile people in society and for those who live alone, it’s solitary confinement. We may argue all we like that it’s for the greater good but we cannot ignore the damage that’s being done to the mental health of those who have to suffer it. Isn’t it ironic that in the penal systems of most countries, solitary confinement is not used any more because it is deemed to be too mentally destructive.
One of the, (possibly unintended), consequences of the present policy is if it successful we will end up with a cohort of people who will not be allowed to see the light of day until the disease is completely eradicated, (or a vaccine developed), because they will have no immunity.

shocksy

MadYaker wrote: »

I’m going on holidays in July.

Yeah I highly doubt that.

I suggest you start looking for a refund.

Chances are high no one will be going on holiday this summer.

ZX7R

is_that_so wrote: »

Are they? I thought it was the end of April.

The main lockdown is till the 3rd of April ,
Lockdown may be extended with some restrictions lifted , looking like end of April for most of restrictions to be lifted

hmmm

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

It's likely not enough people in the country will get the virus so we won't have herd immunity.

I heard one strategy being proposed where we let certain groups return to "normal" sooner than others. E.g. 20 year olds first, 30 year olds afterwards. While people in younger age groups can get bad outcomes, in general they do much better than older age groups. The effect would be to gradually build up immunity in groups which can better tolerate it.

Might be a rubbish strategy when you get into the details, but I can see where they are coming from.

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

They are told to self-isolate for 14 days. Why do you imagine people would choose to ignore that?

Human nature being what it is. 90% will self isolate. But you will get 10% who don't believe any of this coronavirus nonsense and aren't going to be told by anyone what to do.

As for the 90% they could infect family members who could then go on to infect someone else.

At this stage its probably best if we reduce flights from hotspot areas to the bare minimum and isolate people on those flights in hotels or other centres for 14 days. Its not ideal but at least it prevents them spreading something to the community.

It only takes a handful to spread this to a lot more. Coronavirus is just not something we can afford to take chances with, especially in the next few weeks.

Hector Savage

Fernando Simon - looks like he has corona virus ...

Ger Roe

plodder wrote: »

Did I just hear it right on RTE that we spent €200 million on PPE? That seems like an incredibly huge sum

They bought lots and lots and lots and lots of it. It wasn't €200 million for the plane that landed yesterday - there are two more planes on the way home right now (over Russia as I type) and a relay service will shuttle out to china for a few weeks more.

They wouldn't be buying it if it wasn't necessary - if we end up with a surplus (who knows when and how), there is a worldwide demand for it to be sold on if necessary.

It's the Scout's motto - Be prepared.

ZX7R

Ger Roe wrote: »

They bought lots and lots and lots and lots of it. It wasn't €200 million for the plane that landed yesterday - there are two more planes on the way home right now (over Russia as I type) and a relay service will shuttle out to china for a few weeks more.

They wouldn't be buying it if it wasn't necessary - if we end up with a surplus (who knows when and how), there is a worldwide demand for it to be sold on if necessary.

It's the Scout's motto - Be prepared.

15 years worth

ChikiChiki

Roger_007 wrote: »

I hate that word ‘cocooning’. Let’s call it what it is, it’s effectively the imprisonment of the most vulnerable and fragile people in society and for those who live alone, it’s solitary confinement. We may argue all we like that it’s for the greater good but we cannot ignore the damage that’s being done to the mental health of those who have to suffer it. Isn’t it ironic that in the penal systems of most countries, solitary confinement is not used any more because it is deemed to be too mentally destructive.
One of the, (possibly unintended), consequences of the present policy is if it successful we will end up with a cohort of people who will not be allowed to see the light of day until the disease is completely eradicated, (or a vaccine developed), because they will have no immunity.

What's your alternative? It isn't being done for no reason.

stephenjmcd

Beanybabog wrote: »

When do people expect the current restrictions to be eased? I know we’ve being eased in but if the government are expecting the peak 10-14th April it’s most likely going to be a further two weeks of this type of lock down, unless people don’t take it seriously in which it will be stricter. I assume a big part of the way the restrictions have been implemented is not only to control the virus but to manage the public freaking out / not complying.

On a purely selfish level I’m wondering how long before we can see my folks again- 4 weeks? 6 weeks?? More?!. (They’re not over 70 or vulnerable, I assume that segment of society will be restricted longer).

The honest answer is nobody really knows for sure. Italy look like they're adding another 2 weeks onto their lockdown which was due to end in the coming days.

Personally I think ours will be extended out to the end of april in it's current format, to be reviewed the week before its due to end. Then depending on case numbers etc you could see it extended or perhaps a slight relaxation back to what our measures were up to Friday maybe.

In terms of a full reopening, I'd be surprised if pubs, restaurants etc were open before the end of May. I'd say your looking at June possibly.

International travel is basically done for a good few months.

But really nobody can be sure what way it'll pan out timescale wise

plodder

hmmm wrote: »

I heard one strategy being proposed where we let certain groups return to "normal" sooner than others. E.g. 20 year olds first, 30 year olds afterwards. While people in younger age groups can get bad outcomes, in general they do much better than older age groups. The effect would be to gradually build up immunity in groups which can better tolerate it.

Might be a rubbish strategy when you get into the details, but I can see where they are coming from.

The risk seems to be in the difficulty in keeping it out of hospitals and nursing homes particularly. I just don't see how we could avoid that.

joe_99

Ger Roe wrote: »

They bought lots and lots and lots and lots of it. It wasn't €200 million for the plane that landed yesterday - there are two more planes on the way home right now (over Russia as I type) and a relay service will shuttle out to china for a few weeks more.

They wouldn't be buying it if it wasn't necessary - if we end up with a surplus (who knows when and how), there is a worldwide demand for it to be sold on if necessary.

It's the Scout's motto - Be prepared.

Yes, apparently they bought 15 years worth. There will be 10 flights to bring it home.

otnomart

Jin luk wrote: »

Would you watch football?

Valencia played atalanta(italy) in the champions league in february, that stadium would have been a petri dish for infection mind you in that cup they play home and away so defintely didnt help the cause for them.

Yes, Atalanta vs Valencia was on the 19 February.
As the first recorded death by Covid was in Valencia on the 13 February, one could assume that some Valencia fans had it when they flew to Bergamo for the match.

plodder

ZX7R wrote: »

15 years worth

That's what I thought I heard too, but why would we buy that much? 15 months sounds like a much more reasonable time-frame. Presumably, the stuff has expiry dates apart from anything else. Unless 15 normal years equates to some far shorter period in the present situation.

is_that_so

joe_99 wrote: »

Yes, apparently they bought 15 years worth. There will be 10 flights to bring it home.

60 in total actually, between now and the end of May.

MadYaker

shocksy wrote: »

Yeah I highly doubt that.

I suggest you start looking for a refund.

Chances are high no one will be going on holiday this summer.

Can I ask what information you have to be comfortable making a prediction like that. Nothing I’ve heard from any government says restrictions will last that long. In another 6 weeks when antibody testing becomes available and we can test who is immune people who know they can’t catch this virus aren’t going to accept being to told to stay at home any longer.

stephenjmcd

ZX7R wrote: »

The main lockdown is till the 3rd of April ,
Lockdown may be extended with some restrictions lifted , looking like end of April for most of restrictions to be lifted

Looks like they're strict lockdown will be extended by another 2 weeks. Restrictions wont be lifted straight away either. It'll be gradual. Lift them and let normal life resume in 1 big go would be reckless

jam_mac_jam

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

This time next year there will be a vaccine. Stop scaremongering.

You don't know that. Nobody knows that. It could be a year could be two.

yourdeadwright

When do you think it'll peak here ,
I heard a lot of people thinking by July we will be some what back to normal ,the huge worry has to be of a second wave ,

Sweet.Science

MadYaker wrote: »

Can I ask what information you have to be comfortable making a prediction like that. Nothing I’ve heard from any government says restrictions will last that long. In another 6 weeks when antibody testing becomes available and we can test who is immune people who know they can’t catch this virus aren’t going to accept being to told to stay at home any longer.

6 weeks ?

wakka12

Roger_007 wrote: »

I hate that word ‘cocooning’. Let’s call it what it is, it’s effectively the imprisonment of the most vulnerable and fragile people in society and for those who live alone, it’s solitary confinement. We may argue all we like that it’s for the greater good but we cannot ignore the damage that’s being done to the mental health of those who have to suffer it. Isn’t it ironic that in the penal systems of most countries, solitary confinement is not used any more because it is deemed to be too mentally destructive.
One of the, (possibly unintended), consequences of the present policy is if it successful we will end up with a cohort of people who will not be allowed to see the light of day until the disease is completely eradicated, (or a vaccine developed), because they will have no immunity.

What is the alternative? Yes their mental health will suffer for a few months, but its surely a better situation than them dying. Its 2020, there are worse times to 'imprisoned ' in your home, you have skype, phone calls, radio, tv , social media, internet, netflix, food deliveries.

They arent imprisoned anyway, they can talk to neighbours through a window, go for a walk with their dog etc.

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

Can you tell me an example of a working vaccine for a strain of Coronavirus? You seem to know a lot about this.
We have to develop it, prove its safe, prove its effective and then think of a way to roll it out to 60% plus of the population. Easy!

Can you tell me a strain of the Corona virus that has caused this much of an outbreak before. They were close before to a vaccine but it was shelved because nobody needed it.

stephenjmcd

MadYaker wrote: »

Can I ask what information you have to be comfortable making a prediction like that. Nothing I’ve heard from any government says restrictions will last that long. In another 6 weeks when antibody testing becomes available and we can test who is immune people who know they can’t catch this virus aren’t going to accept being to told to stay at home any longer.

Theres not a chance that in 6 weeks we'll have restrictions lifted.
There'll be no sort of normality until June quite possibly and even at that international travel wont be up and running for potentially more months after that.

whiskeyman

voluntary wrote: »

When the last instance of the virus disappears from this island, the moment we open the air/sea border, we will get the virus back.

So much will depend on advances in rapid testing kits.

Imagine a quick test that has results back in a min that's cheap.

Could potentially know people who've had it / have it and dictate their movements based on this.

Roger_007

ChikiChiki wrote: »

What's your alternative? It isn't being done for no reason.

The Swedish approach is much better in the long run. They are advising their people to behave sensibly and by and large, they are doing it. You just have to trust people.

Cork Boy 53

MadYaker wrote: »

Amsterdam for a festival called Dekmantel.

There will be no festivals in Amsterdam or anywhere else this summer. If you believe there still will be you are sadly mistaken.

MadYaker

Sweet.Science wrote: »

6 weeks ?

Yes, it’s known as serological testing. Widely in use already in China, Taiwan and South Korea. Not to be confused with the type of testing we’re currently doing here which tests for the virus itself not the antibodies.