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Corona Virus and events

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  • Registered Users Posts: 55,601 ✭✭✭✭walshb


    deisedude wrote: »
    If the Olympics do go ahead later this year or next year I hope Pollock isn't anywhere near it. Extremely selfish behaviour running Bath today.

    And isn't he a doctor?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    plodder wrote: »
    Not sure if you are equating lock downs with social distancing there, but there is a good article on the Washington Post with a simulation of the effects of lockdowns and social distancing generally. They don't have to be completely watertight to be effective and if the models are any way close to reality then will slow the increase in number of cases significantly. Though clearly, the more people that observe the restrictions, the better.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=sf_coronavirus

    Yep, seen that article.

    There should be more going on to stop public transport and people going into offices where they could work from home (great time to setup a mobile IT support company to fix peoples wifi etc for them). Pubs closing is good, indoor events stopping is good, people standing further away from each other in the queue to buy toilet roll is good.

    Schools closing is not necessarily as useful as it appears though, it would likely actually cause more of an instant strain on the health services due to staffing problems, and whilst it makes for a good scary headline and gets people to notice that something serious is going on which is very useful, that you have those kids then still out mingling with each other and then getting looked after by grandparents so that the parents can still go to work in the hospitals destroys much of the benefit. Yes, close the schools in the areas directly adjacent to known cases, national shutdown at this point is less obvious benefit.

    Now if there was a specific location that was the main source of infections in the country then having a total lockdown on that area will be very useful. China seems to have done that pretty well, Italy less so and more cases escaped the quarantine. Ireland and the UK and most of the rest of the world do not have areas that it's worth quarantining so different tactics are required...but nobody knows what that is yet.

    What has China done in the rest of the country which wasn't locked down? There must have been cases escaped from Wuhan, and new ones come in from elsewhere. What have they been doing to prevent those creating new clusters across the country? Something different has been happening with those cases and that would be more similar to what has been happening with cases in the rest of the world where it appears in multiple places at the same time from multiple sources.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Chivito550


    IvoryTower wrote: »
    well the "lockdown" seems to have been bs anyway , still just pubs for now

    Lots of BS going round. I've deleted Twitter and Facebook apps off my phone. Too much negativity, rumours and misinformation. Not good for one's mental health. Judging by this thread, I might take a holiday from this forum too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    Yeah, I know where you’re coming from. I’ve learned a few lessons myself about information processing and recognising fact and fiction.
    While the lockdown seems BS for now looking at the trajectory of other countries it remains a possibility in the future. What seems impossible one week becomes possible the next with this thing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,851 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    Lots of BS going round. I've deleted Twitter and Facebook apps off my phone. Too much negativity, rumours and misinformation. Not good for one's mental health. Judging by this thread, I might take a holiday from this forum too.

    If feeling down, don't cut off the world. Maybe create a thread of good vibes.
    Don't want to see someone suffering, we should all help each other


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,226 ✭✭✭plodder


    robinph wrote: »
    Schools closing is not necessarily as useful as it appears though, it would likely actually cause more of an instant strain on the health services due to staffing problems, and whilst it makes for a good scary headline and gets people to notice that something serious is going on which is very useful, that you have those kids then still out mingling with each other and then getting looked after by grandparents so that the parents can still go to work in the hospitals destroys much of the benefit. Yes, close the schools in the areas directly adjacent to known cases, national shutdown at this point is less obvious benefit.
    Kids are not supposed to be out mingling when they are off school in this situation. Obviously, health authorities are only too aware of the effect it will have on staffing but still consider it a step worth taking, which is not surprising as the description of young children being like "petri dishes" is quite apt.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    plodder wrote: »
    Kids are not supposed to be out mingling when they are off school in this situation. Obviously, health authorities are only too aware of the effect it will have on staffing but still consider it a step worth taking, which is not surprising as the description of young children being like "petri dishes" is quite apt.

    But would it be better to keep the kids together, their parents working, and the grandparents isolated from the kids. Would be less of a strain on the health services if the staff just needed to change collection arrangements so it wasn't done by the grandparents but they otherwise keep working. If you take that health worker out of service totally due to child care it's bad, and if you have the kids hanging out with the grandparents it's bad.

    I don't think there is a good answer to what to do, just different versions of bad.


  • Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭SuspectZero


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    Lots of BS going round. I've deleted Twitter and Facebook apps off my phone. Too much negativity, rumours and misinformation. Not good for one's mental health. Judging by this thread, I might take a holiday from this forum too.

    I find the only way to not let this stuff and social media in general get to you is to stand back and not take it personally because they are pretty much like warzones especially in circumstances like this, disagreements on even the slightest issues get taken as personal attacks rather than discussion and it spirals from there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Chivito550


    I find the only way to not let this stuff and social media in general get to you is to stand back and not take it personally because they are pretty much like warzones especially in circumstances like this, disagreements on even the slightest issues get taken as personal attacks rather than discussion and it spirals from there.

    I'm not even getting into many debates really. Just find scrolling through a twitter feed 15 times a day and seeing nothing but negativity is not good for anyone. I'll stick to a daily news update on TV.

    Anytime somebody tries to shine a light of positively and encouragement, there are 10 people ready to piss all over it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,851 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    robinph wrote: »
    But would it be better to keep the kids together, their parents working, and the grandparents isolated from the kids. Would be less of a strain on the health services if the staff just needed to change collection arrangements so it wasn't done by the grandparents but they otherwise keep working. If you take that health worker out of service totally due to child care it's bad, and if you have the kids hanging out with the grandparents it's bad.

    I don't think there is a good answer to what to do, just different versions of bad.

    But kids aren't hanging out with grandparents. Our grandparents wont see the kids till this is over. Kids not mingling either.

    Having kids in school are a bigger risk, easier to pass things around, bring it home, person goes to supermarket and spread it, or to a pub or concert. Older generation will then get it.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,501 ✭✭✭Laineyfrecks


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    Lots of BS going round. I've deleted Twitter and Facebook apps off my phone. Too much negativity, rumours and misinformation. Not good for one's mental health. Judging by this thread, I might take a holiday from this forum too.

    At a time like this, around so much uncertainty anxiety is more than likely for most of us. What you do with it then is a personal choice! Good vibes are hugely needed right now & that's in no way making light of the crisis we are facing. I too have stopped reading certain articles and feeds but have not cut myself off entirely. Good news stories are coming through now & that's great to see. I think for me focusing on all the practical things i can do has helped me a bit more & made me worry less about the things i can't control...people came together in outrage about the pubs in Temple bar on Sat night with a great response in that pubs in all areas realised they too had to take personal responsibility...take the good news from this.
    I have started a Coronavirus diary/log, just to keep me grounded! Some of it funny with things happening at home etc but also when i feel anxious i write about what my worries are, what i can practically do about them, then read it back & it grounds me, also helps you realise the things to be grateful for on a daily basis that in our extremely busy lives we may have been taking for granted!

    Some or all of this may feel like bs to some but in a time of uncertainty anything that helps is good...right?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,851 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    At a time like this, around so much uncertainty anxiety is more than likely for most of us. What you do with it then is a personal choice! Good vibes are hugely needed right now & that's in no way making light of the crisis we are facing. I too have stopped reading certain articles and feeds but have not cut myself off entirely. Good news stories are coming through now & that's great to see. I think for me focusing on all the practical things i can do has helped me a bit more & made me worry less about the things i can't control...people came together in outrage about the pubs in Temple bar on Sat night with a great response in that pubs in all areas realised they too had to take personal responsibility...take the good news from this.
    I have started a Coronavirus diary/log, just to keep me grounded! Some of it funny with things happening at home etc but also when i feel anxious i write about what my worries are, what i can practically do about them, then read it back & it grounds me, also helps you realise the things to be grateful for on a daily basis that in our extremely busy lives we may have been taking for granted!

    Some or all of this may feel like bs to some but in a time of uncertainty anything that helps is good...right?


    Some good news I heard yesterday was 4 people in Limerick hospital recovered from it.

    There is a drug that they are testing on it(not here), some positive results, so just maybe we will see some light at the end of the tunnel in 2 weeks.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    But kids aren't hanging out with grandparents. Our grandparents wont see the kids till this is over. Kids not mingling either.

    Having kids in school are a bigger risk, easier to pass things around, bring it home, person goes to supermarket and spread it, or to a pub or concert. Older generation will then get it.

    Ours won't be out and about mingling either but that is down to age, don't think that will apply to older kids and just because we are able to not need to make used of grandparents doesn't mean other will be able to do the same and still keep working.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,501 ✭✭✭Laineyfrecks


    robinph wrote: »
    Ours won't be out and about mingling either but that is down to age, don't think that will apply to older kids and just because we are able to not need to make used of grandparents doesn't mean other will be able to do the same and still keep working.

    I have a 10 year old & 14 year old both of them not mixing with others & not seeing their grandparents for now. My job is not closed but under no circumstances will i be leaving them with their grandparents. It's again down to personal responsibility, i know it is extremely hard to try get alternative childcare but who really wants to risk being responsible for passing it onto a loved one?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    I have a 10 year old & 14 year old both of them not mixing with others & not seeing their grandparents for now. My job is not closed but under no circumstances will i be leaving them with their grandparents. It's again down to personal responsibility, i know it is extremely hard to try get alternative childcare but who really wants to risk being responsible for passing it onto a loved one?

    Hopefully everyone is still able to maintain that in two months time. There is a very long way to go yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭py


    Two Oceans has been cancelled, only a matter of time before Comrades follows suit given they've declared a national state of disaster due to COVID-19.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,851 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    robinph wrote: »
    Ours won't be out and about mingling either but that is down to age, don't think that will apply to older kids and just because we are able to not need to make used of grandparents doesn't mean other will be able to do the same and still keep working.

    But even with the UK system that logic still applies and if not makes it worst.

    Someone has to collect the kids, if parents can't, who will?
    Also someone will have to collect the teachers kids also ??
    Then the teachers could end up spreading it also.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    But even with the UK system that logic still applies and if not makes it worst.

    Someone has to collect the kids, if parents can't, who will?
    Also someone will have to collect the teachers kids also ??
    Then the teachers could end up spreading it also.

    Absolutely. The UK is just trying to not stress the system too early.

    There are 5 cases locally to me according to the stats, double or treble that if you count the neighbouring counties who would all be sending their patients to the hospitals in my area. I was due in for an appointment today, but decided not to go as whilst it's a mild additional risk going to the hospital it is a big public indoors area. Was offered the choice of phone appointment or to turn up today. They said from next week they will only be doing those appointments by phone.

    They are not stretched yet, they just anticipate being so from next week. The UK plan is to accept that it's out there and manage the resources as best they can to try and cope when the real problems hit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,851 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    robinph wrote: »
    Absolutely. The UK is just trying to not stress the system too early.

    There are 5 cases locally to me according to the stats, double or treble that if you count the neighbouring counties who would all be sending their patients to the hospitals in my area. I was due in for an appointment today, but decided not to go as whilst it's a mild additional risk going to the hospital it is a big public indoors area. Was offered the choice of phone appointment or to turn up today. They said from next week they will only be doing those appointments by phone.

    They are not stretched yet, they just anticipate being so from next week. The UK plan is to accept that it's out there and manage the resources as best they can to try and cope when the real problems hit.

    I fear UK could be another Italy, only addressing the problem after it happens.
    I hope I am wrong, but even the number of testing is low enough there.
    This weekend should see a big increase in Ireland and UK, hopefully by the following weekend we see an ease off.

    I see EU has banned all travelling now unless essential. Think its the right thing to do. Ireland needs to close it borders asap.

    Big week for Italy now also, the two week isolation is coming up at the weekend.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    I fear UK could be another Italy, only addressing the problem after it happens.
    I hope I am wrong, but even the number of testing is low enough there.
    This weekend should see a big increase in Ireland and UK, hopefully by the following weekend we see an ease off.

    I see EU has banned all travelling now unless essential. Think its the right thing to do. Ireland needs to close it borders asap.

    Big week for Italy now also, the two week isolation is coming up at the weekend.

    I think Italy is the wrong comparison. Compare Italy and China as they had similar starting points with it being in isolated areas, and Italy didn't shutdown quick enough. The problems in Italy are due to the concentration of the outbreak overwhelming that region, it's now escaped to the rest of the country but we'd hope that the rest of the country isn't affected the same or as quickly as Lombardy was.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099375/coronavirus-cases-by-region-in-italy/

    Most of the other countries in Europe have a fairly even spread of cases around their country I believe.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,999 ✭✭✭opus


    py wrote: »
    Two Oceans has been cancelled, only a matter of time before Comrades follows suit given they've declared a national state of disaster due to COVID-19.

    Almost certainly cancelled, by pure fluke I wasn't registered for it this year as wanted a break. Bizarrely they opened the substitution window for Comrades only today.

    Cork is postponed as well:
    The Cork City Marathon has been postponed from 31st May 2020, to 6th September 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak.


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,126 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    UK government finally catching up with the rest of the world in its response:
    Now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel," the prime minister says.

    Here are some key points:

    Anyone who lives with someone who has a cough or a temperature should stay at home for 14 days
    People should start working from home where they possible can
    Avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues
    Only use the NHS when we really need to
    From tomorrow government will no longer be "supporting" mass gatherings using emergency workers

    I guess this will also be parkruns trigger to remove volunteers and runners from harms way by cancelling events from this Saturday onwards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,455 ✭✭✭✭Murph_D


    I do fear for the UK too and expect more organisations (hopefully including parkrun) will divert from the official line. They’ve been very slow to reveal the science behind the herd immunity strategy, although it has been promised. Maybe I missed it? Certainly many epidemiologists are sceptical. Sounds great in theory but I suspect there are far more cases than the numbers suggest. We will know soon enough. A friend in Bath ran a solo HM time trial instead of yesterday’s official event. I know it’s only a week since Bohermeen but I’d never run it now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭SuspectZero


    Murph_D wrote: »
    I do fear for the UK too and expect more organisations (hopefully including parkrun) will divert from the official line. They’ve been very slow to reveal the science behind the herd immunity strategy, although it has been promised. Maybe I missed it? Certainly many epidemiologists are sceptical. Sounds great in theory but I suspect there are far more cases than the numbers suggest. We will know soon enough. A friend in Bath ran a solo HM time trial instead of yesterday’s official event. I know it’s only a week since Bohermeen but I’d never run it now.

    Herd immunity was binned 2 days ago. They are talking about self isolation for over 70's and have already set out guidelines to self distance(in he post you are replying to are their guidelines). Not sure why alot of the online media are still running with stories about herd immunity. The politicians and NHS higer ups have been all over sky news for the last two days saying that would not be their approach


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Herd immunity was binned 2 days ago. They are talking about self isolation for over 70's and have already set out guidelines to self distance(in he post you are replying to are their guidelines). Not sure why alot of the online media are still running with stories about herd immunity. The politicians and NHS higer ups have been all over sky news for the last two days saying that would not be their approach
    It was never the plan anyway, was merely mentioned in the press conference last week as something that might happen. They never said it was their aim, just that if it did then that would be useful.

    Social media and print media just picked up the term and ran off with it as a way to beat on the government.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,455 ✭✭✭✭Murph_D


    Not surprising that media pick up a term when this is the direct quote:

    “Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.” (Vallance, Chief Scientific Adviser)

    The problem was little evidence of protecting the vulnerable. No official advice to care homes to limit visits, for example (many homes implemented their own restrictions). The current focus on protecting over 70s talks of taking action in ‘coming weeks’ (ie not now). Is that soon enough?

    It all depends on the numbers. If numbers already carrying and spreading are higher than expected, the strategy is a real problem. And the first people to suffer will be the most vulnerable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,895 ✭✭✭Sacksian


    Amazingly, it turns out the UK based its original coronavirus control plan on modelling derived from their experience of viral pneumonia, rather than the advice of the WHO, or the experience of other countries with coronavirus. New strategy abandons all that.

    https://www.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
    "It would be harder than experts believed last week to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients, Prof Ferguson said: “We have had bad news from Italy and from early experience in UK hospitals that the intensive care requirements will be nearly twice what we had anticipated.” 

    The latest evidence suggests that 30 per cent of patients admitted to hospital with Covid-19 will need critical care in an intensive care unit, he said. Previous estimates, based on experience with viral pneumonia, were too low.

    They have also abandoned the "herd immunity" strategy:
    According to Prof Ferguson, the new strategy abandons the idea of “herd immunity” — managing the infection rate so that enough people become immune to prevent the virus from transmitting. The new aim is suppression. “We want to ensure that only a small fraction of the country will be infected,” he said.


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,126 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    There'll be lawsuits over this, the incompetence is staggering.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭py


    opus wrote: »
    Almost certainly cancelled, by pure fluke I wasn't registered for it this year as wanted a break. Bizarrely they opened the substitution window for Comrades only today.

    As Comrades continue to act like business as normal the attendees are getting more and more aggravated on social media. You'd think they'd have made a call by now but common sense is not prevailing.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭SuspectZero


    I know no one will listen to me as all your minds are already made up but what people here have to realise is that no one knows the answers and the politicalisation of this has further warped all reality. While it's easy to throw out words like incompetence and the problem with this approach or that approach is this or that, no one actually knows what the issues either short term or long term are.

    The WHO has came out about all this, calling it an infodemic. All your social media accounts are sending you biased info which keeps reinforcing the echo chamber of online media. when you click on any link on your PC or phone, the website sends you cookies which track your movements(these are used to find out what you like so companies and media can target advertise you). Read the telegraph alot, it will be sent to you more often, read the covid 19 conspiracy media, it will be seen more often. Hence the issue with people not knowing that the UK Gov wasn't going with herd immunity because you have all been reading the media with agendas and bias over that because you've been constantly clicking on them articles.

    Murph, when you say it's not suprising the media picked up herd immunity from the quote, it isn't suprising at all because they are the media and are in the buisness of making money. Vallance is an advisor, Did any of these media outlets actually confirm with the Government that this was the strategy? No because they are irresponsible as always. People need to stop believing everything they read. Matt Hancock( The UK health minister where official word is going to come from, not an advisor) was on the news the other night and said they were considering every option but would not be pursuing herd immunity, yet the media kept writing about it because fact checking does'nt matter to them.

    People need to stop believing everything they read, when you read something online, you are getting an interpretation from the media which may onlybe loosely based on fact or in other cases, rumours. And people also need to understand that the info you do get online is completely biased to fit their opinions, confirmation bias.

    For instance in another example, say someone only reads the gaurdian, they will be lapping up all the leftwing agendas, Only read the mail on Sunday and you'll be getting all the rightwing agendas. Social media works in the same way. And honestly, all of the politicalisation of the coronavirus during this whole crisis is complete and utter ****show, I'm pretty sure the virus doesn't give a flying fook about politics and neither will the best solution.


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