Corona Virus and events

average_runner

With Corona virus spreading, i wouldn't be surprise if all uk marathons are cancel and same in Europe.


Can see parkruns getting called off also


What do people think?

spc78

Definitely heading that way.

Something similar to the foot and mouth of 2001 - I remember a host of things cancelled but most notably the Ballycotton 10 (aside from St Patricks Day, 6 nations, Cheltenham etc) which ended up being held in June.

Bet they won't cancel Mass though....

rovers_runner

average_runner wrote: »

With Corona virus spreading, i wouldn't be surprise if all uk marathons are cancel and same in Europe.


Can see parkruns getting called off also


What do people think?

Can't see them being bothered with Parkrun, nobody travelling a distance to take park.
Local people in a local event.

Can see any large events with over 10,000 people attending being at risk.
UEFA playoffs
Large Croke Park / Aviva games

There aren't really any large mass participation events in spring here in running?
Connemarathon / Belfast marathon / Limerick marathon
All small enough in numbers and doesn't generate much international travel.

tedpan

rovers_runner wrote:

Can't see them being bothered with Parkrun, nobody travelling a distance to take park. Local people in a local event.

What about local people who have recently travelled and have no symptoms?

rovers_runner

tedpan wrote: »

What about local people who have recently travelled and have no symptoms?

Shouldn't they be "self isolating" :pac:

ismisecraic

I am booked to take part in the Barcelona marathon on the 15th of March. Worried now about how this is escalating on mainland europe.
I know who is at risk and the likelihood of infection etc but the main problem being is that what is the likelihood of being quarantined for 2 weeks as this situation escalates.

Anyone else have any overseas events coming up and considering postponing / cancelling.

The decisions is a bit easier for me as I decided to make a family holiday out of it so with little kids in tow, im airing on the side of cancelling. Balance payment due for the accomodation by end of tomorrow...

opus

I've got the Hamburg marathon coming up in April so that thought crossed my mind as well. Flights etc all booked already so guess just have to roll the dice.

boydkev

I have Manchester Marathon at the start of April, But have not booked flights or accommodation. Whole situation has me wondering to just give it a miss.

WesternStorm

I am also booked to do the Barcelona marathon on March 15th. Thankfully I have free cancellation on the accomodation until check in day, so it gives me the luxury to monitor the situation for another few weeks before making a call on it.

average_runner

I say London is at risk also

6run28

Im booked for Paris Marathon in April. I cant see it going ahead at this stage to be honest

glacial_pace71

The cancellation (or is it just a postponement?) of the Ireland-Italy game does set off some alarm bells.

But the Irish Govt does have form in this regard. Back in 2003 various countries' Special Olympics teams were told that they weren't welcome on account of the SARS panic of that time.

In June 2003 it was eventually conveyed to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region that they'd be tolerated. Have a look at the official WHO figures at the time the decision was made:

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_06_06/en/

Going by today's panicked reaction the Irish Govt would have banned the Canadians and Americans.

Granted, world travel has increased massively over the intervening years but, from a European perspective, back in 2003 we had Schengen and we had Ryanair flights etc. (Then again the Ryanair trick of calling something Frankfurt Hahn etc is almost like flying people into areas so remote from their intended destinations, 125+ km in some cases, that it's a bit like a quarantine regime).

For race organisers they're in a completely different position than St Patrick's Day parades/gatherings etc. Race organisers know or ought to know the nationality of a large percentage of their participants. It makes any so-called risk assessment much easier, even before engaging with the health authorities.

The Irish boxing delegation are returning from Italy today. It'd appear that we'll take the medieval-plague-is-upon-us approach at national level but whether it generates any new-found political interest in funding the health service is another matter.

At the end of the day I fear that a number of perfectly safe events in Irelan will be cancelled out of the symbolism of being seen to 'do something', e.g. wear a hi-vis vest and stare mournfully at Shannon flooding whilst nodding seriously every so often etc.

However, I strongly doubt that other countries will hit the 'national panic' button. Sure, it'd play very well as a dog whistle in some countries to be 'keeping out the foreign threat' but braver politicians, better-equipped health systems, and the likelihood of a temperature rise (with consequent drop in viral survival rates outside a host) should all contribute to the situation becoming a properly-assessible risk over the coming weeks.

sideswipe

boydkev wrote: »

I have Manchester Marathon at the start of April, But have not booked flights or accommodation. Whole situation has me wondering to just give it a miss.

In the same boat, looking at some local alternatives if there are travel restrictions and mass event cancellations. Manchester is 25,000 this year so a major event now.

I've flights booked but with Ryanair so feel safe enough as I'm unlikely to pick up the virus with them as they'll probably charge for it:D

ac20

WesternStorm wrote: »

I am also booked to do the Barcelona marathon on March 15th. Thankfully I have free cancellation on the accomodation until check in day, so it gives me the luxury to monitor the situation for another few weeks before making a call on it.

same here, can cancel my accomodation up to the 12th. will see how things pan out in the next week or so.

ismisecraic

I think I'm gonna do the same. Emailed our accommodation and they're not phased by the news at all. Think we lose a deposit by tomorrow but only couple hundred euro which might be OK to roll the dice on and see how it pans out.

mylesforsmiles

Lots of spring marathons could be cancelled I'd say.

London, Manchester, Paris, Rome, Rotterdam, Vienna, Hamburg, Barcelona?

Signed up for Manchester myself.

Limerick an alternative option.

racersedge

Signed up with a running mate to do Prague on the May bank holiday weekend. We were only joking last night if we would actually get there! A little bit more sobering when you do look at other events closer to home getting cancelled.
Would be the thoughts of going through a training cycle with no race that would be more maddening at this very moment to be honest, followed by an potential loss of travel and entry stuff!

average_runner

glacial_pace71 wrote: »

The cancellation (or is it just a postponement?) of the Ireland-Italy game does set off some alarm bells.

But the Irish Govt does have form in this regard. Back in 2003 various countries' Special Olympics teams were told that they weren't welcome on account of the SARS panic of that time.

In June 2003 it was eventually conveyed to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region that they'd be tolerated. Have a look at the official WHO figures at the time the decision was made:

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_06_06/en/

Going by today's panicked reaction the Irish Govt would have banned the Canadians and Americans.

Granted, world travel has increased massively over the intervening years but, from a European perspective, back in 2003 we had Schengen and we had Ryanair flights etc. (Then again the Ryanair trick of calling something Frankfurt Hahn etc is almost like flying people into areas so remote from their intended destinations, 125+ km in some cases, that it's a bit like a quarantine regime).

For race organisers they're in a completely different position than St Patrick's Day parades/gatherings etc. Race organisers know or ought to know the nationality of a large percentage of their participants. It makes any so-called risk assessment much easier, even before engaging with the health authorities.

The Irish boxing delegation are returning from Italy today. It'd appear that we'll take the medieval-plague-is-upon-us approach at national level but whether it generates any new-found political interest in funding the health service is another matter.

At the end of the day I fear that a number of perfectly safe events in Irelan will be cancelled out of the symbolism of being seen to 'do something', e.g. wear a hi-vis vest and stare mournfully at Shannon flooding whilst nodding seriously every so often etc.

However, I strongly doubt that other countries will hit the 'national panic' button. Sure, it'd play very well as a dog whistle in some countries to be 'keeping out the foreign threat' but braver politicians, better-equipped health systems, and the likelihood of a temperature rise (with consequent drop in viral survival rates outside a host) should all contribute to the situation becoming a properly-assessible risk over the coming weeks.

Ireland hasn't hit the panic button. Loads of Serie A games were cancelled last week and more this week. Tokyo marathon was cancelled also.

Itziger

Cork will be ok, right? Right?

glacial_pace71

average_runner wrote: »

Ireland hasn't hit the panic button. Loads of Serie A games were cancelled last week and more this week. Tokyo marathon was cancelled also.

Both those countries have actual cases. Here it's a case of various Govt Ministers (e.g. Health, Sport etc) elbowing one another out of the way to stand beside a traffic light and roar 'turn red, I command you to turn red' and sure enough the light changing as it was expected to. We're in the phase of 'managing the message' and being seen to do something.

If they force the IRFU to cancel events now then I can't see why people would hope that the Limerick marathon would survive in May, as we're into a different version of the Irish tradition of what-about-ery.

For events outside Ireland it'll be a nervous few weeks ahead to see what'll be cancelled but if it's like the SARS or Asian Bird Flu panics then we've at least another two months of drama ahead.

pc11

Due to do Manchester myself.

Right now there's no reason for cancellations. But this could change really really quickly. Look at how the numbers in Italy exploded. A week ago there was nothing there, now there are 300 cases. There could be 3000 by this weekend.

Even then, I don't really see a need to cancel Irish parkruns unless the whole country goes in to total lockdown like in Wuhan. 100-200 people in one place for 45 minutes without major travel is really not that worrying. That said, I can see logic disappearing if things go south rapidly.

20,000 in Manchester having travelled from god knows where and filling all the hotels in town is just totally different.

Once a few things get cancelled it will snowball rapidly as nobody will be seen to be taking a risk. And insurance companies may get involved.

I can't see St Patricks Day parade in Dublin happening if we have any kind of outbreak here, for example.

Finally, contrary to the bullsht I see on Facebook, this is NOT like the flu. The mortality of coronavirus is 20-30 times higher than flu, there's a vaccine for flu, and then there's the uncertainty surrounding something so new and unknown.

WASH YOUR BLOODY HANDS EVERYONE. IF YOU FEEL SICK STAY HOME. DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO YOUR GP OR TO HOSPITAL.

Murph_D

glacial_pace71 wrote: »

Both those countries have actual cases. ...

I think you're missing something.

ger664

Down for Madrid end of April Filghts paid accomdation due in 3 weeks. Unless theree is a travel ban in place I will travel even if marathon bites the dust.

YOLO

The Black Oil

rovers_runner wrote: »

Can't see them being bothered with Parkrun, nobody travelling a distance to take park.
Local people in a local event.

We get groups of 30 or so flying over from the UK to visit Malahide.

Kander

I wonder is Manchester would get cancelled and refunded. My training is going crap for for it so I wouldn't be too off put

AuldManKing

Paris half cancelled - 1 days notice!.
All events of 5000 or more cancelled in France.

sideswipe

AuldManKing wrote: »

Paris half cancelled - 1 days notice!.
All events of 5000 or more cancelled in France.

Saw that! I think we’ll see more of that over the next while. 5 weeks to Manchester tomorrow, it’s gonna be touch and go looking at the infection timeline from Asia.

robinph

pc11 wrote: »

Finally, contrary to the bullsht I see on Facebook, this is NOT like the flu. The mortality of coronavirus is 20-30 times higher than flu, there's a vaccine for flu, and then there's the uncertainty surrounding something so new and unknown.

WASH YOUR BLOODY HANDS EVERYONE. IF YOU FEEL SICK STAY HOME. DO NOT GO TO WORK OR TO YOUR GP OR TO HOSPITAL.

All depends what stats you are comparing between the flu and covid19. Some sites list 0.1% death rate for flu, of those infected but could vary between 0.4‰ and 3% for Covid19, or even 15% if they just talk about over 80 year olds.

I'm not concerned about a difference between 0.1% and 0.4% as whilst it several times higher it's still negligible.

rom

Note to anyone here. Your travel insurance does not cover you for a marathon. If you happened to be going to London on the same weekend as the marathon and need to cancel then that is a totally different story.

rom

robinph wrote: »

All depends what stats you are comparing between the flu and covid19. Some sites list 0.1% death rate for flu, of those infected but could vary between 0.4‰ and 3% for Covid19, or even 15% if they just talk about over 80 year olds.

I'm not concerned about a difference between 0.1% and 0.4% as whilst it several times higher it's still negligible.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

robinph

Keep off cruise ships is generally good advice to stay healthy.

Dudda

robinph wrote: »

Keep off cruise ships is generally good advice to stay healthy.

Can't imagine their great running on anyway

Lazare

Dudda wrote: »

Can't imagine their great running on anyway

A friend of mine did a 20 miler on a cruise ship a couple of years ago.

pc11

robinph wrote: »

All depends what stats you are comparing between the flu and covid19. Some sites list 0.1% death rate for flu, of those infected but could vary between 0.4‰ and 3% for Covid19, or even 15% if they just talk about over 80 year olds.

I'm not concerned about a difference between 0.1% and 0.4% as whilst it several times higher it's still negligible.

This is not normally the place to debate medicine but I'm sick of the misinformation and misunderstanding about this.

As a doctor and following this closely, I have not seen any papers that indicate 0.4% mortality as likely. The figure generally estimated is 2-3%, though of course there is considerable uncertainty.

Yes, 0.1% death rate for flu is the generally quoted rate, though of course this varies considerably from year to year.

So, 20-30 times the death rate of flu is our best guess.

But, let's say we accept the extremely low end of the estimate as a 0.4% death rate.

You may regard this 0.4% mortality as negligible, I can assure you that puts you in the minority. Anyone working in this area would regard this figure as high.

As there is no vaccine and no prospect of one anytime soon, and we are only getting started with this outbreak, it is reasonable to expect a lot of deaths worldwide and perhaps in Ireland.

And the figure of 15-20 % needing hospitalisation and 5-10% with very serious illness needing ICU or similar treatment is HORRENDOUS. This may be the real problem here. The hospitalisation rate for flu is only around 1% and needing ICU care is very very rare for flu. In fact I don't think I can recall ever seeing it.

ICU care is incredibly resource intensive. It requires very high staffing, lots of resources and money, and depends on staff who are already in short supply. There are very few ICU beds around as it is. A decent sized Dublin hospital like Connolly Hospital only has 5-6 ICU beds and only 2 of these are in isolation and these are already full every day. A typical COVID patient needing ICU will be there for weeks. Naas hospital has one isolation ICU bed. I could go on.

What happens when you get 10, 20 or 100 extra ICU cases? What happens when you get ICU staff out sick? What happens to the rest of the hospital? There will be no surgeries for a start. The entire hospital will be grossly affected in a system that was already close to breakdown.

What happens if and when the entire country shuts down, with schools, business and shops closed? I'm not saying this WILL happen, but there is a decent chance of it. The UK is already contemplating shutting down entire cities as reported in the papers this morning.

What about the economic and social effects of doing this?


Now, I'm normally someone who gets annoyed at people over-estimating risk and I'd normally be someone who'd argue for a calm response to threats, but this situation is extremely worrying. And it's not going away. This is not likely to be over and done quickly like SARS, this threat may last for years. And even if the threat were actually low, is that how government and people will treat it? The US state of Washington is now in a state of emergency after just one death in the entire US so far. Expect similar strong reactions everywhere. This will greatly affect all of us, rightly or wrongly.

And for those who like to point out the risk is really for old and sick people as if this somehow makes it ok, then I don't know what to tell you except that you have a very strange way of looking at the world if you can so readily dismiss this cohort. These are our parents, relatives and friends. They are not disposable. They are real people too.

You might be 25 and healthy and feel like you have nothing to worry about but some of use are looking at a slightly bigger picture.

Once again, I'm not saying the worst case scenario WILL happen, I'm saying there's a decent chance this could get bad and that if it's bad it will be very bad indeed. And even if it isn't, the uncertainty around it will overshadow and haunt us for a long time. No mater what happens, we'll still be fretting over this in 2 months' time.

I'd love to be wrong about all this of course.

And, personally, I'm training for Manchester and I'd say it's 50/50 at best, probably less.

echancrure

Back to the running...

If Manchester and / or Paris get cancelled (I am booked for Paris) is there a low key marathon in Ireland the week before that is less likely to be cancelled? (because it is not an international event etc.)

Although, perhaps weakening your immune system by running a marathon when a nasty virus is doing the round is perhaps not the wisest thing to do?

Burkie1203

echancrure wrote: »

Back to the running...

If Manchester and / or Paris get cancelled (I am booked for Paris) is there a low key marathon in Ireland the week before that is less likely to be cancelled? (because it is not an international event etc.)

Although, perhaps weakening your immune system by running a marathon when a nasty virus is doing the round is perhaps not the wisest thing to do?

Check out the East Of Ireland running events (Google it)

AuldManKing

Tralee is the week after Manchester.

https://official-tralee-marathon.com/

sideswipe

AuldManKing wrote: »

Tralee is the week after Manchester.

https://official-tralee-marathon.com/

I was looking at that. Did some research on the events section and came up with this thread which relates to the same route as this year. The general consensus is that it's a tough route but I suppose beggars can't be choosers.

healy1835

If Manchester doesn't pan out, I'm banking the training & just moving along.

AuldManKing

healy1835 wrote: »

If Manchester doesn't pan out, I'm banking the training the just moving along.

same here. Training wont be lost - I wont be doing a Marathon for the sake of it.

Was just thinking earlier that at the back end of last year, my main goal was a sub 60 10 miler - the HM in Bohermeen and then Manchester spawned from that.

Should M'Chester be cancelled, then I've still achieved my goal.
Plenty of local races to be done.

ted1

rom wrote: »

Note to anyone here. Your travel insurance does not cover you for a marathon. If you happened to be going to London on the same weekend as the marathon and need to cancel then that is a totally different story.

Force majure , no?

TFBubendorfer

sideswipe wrote: »

I was looking at that. Did some research on the events section and came up with this thread which relates to the same route as this year. The general consensus is that it's a tough route but I suppose beggars can't be choosers.

Tralee is definitely a tough route - but somehow I still managed to run my lifetime PB on that very course! (I was in awesome shape that year)

ismisecraic

Marathon in malta today (I didn't run it) , they emailed all entrants on Thursday to tell entrants from affected areas not to travel that they wouldn't be let run and at the expo they were asked to show boarding passes and passports for their race number.

sideswipe

healy1835 wrote: »

If Manchester doesn't pan out, I'm banking the training & just moving along.

AuldManKing wrote: »

same here. Training wont be lost - I wont be doing a Marathon for the sake of it.

Was just thinking earlier that at the back end of last year, my main goal was a sub 60 10 miler - the HM in Bohermeen and then Manchester spawned from that.

Should M'Chester be cancelled, then I've still achieved my goal.
Plenty of local races to be done.

Finding it hard to get my head around that option as I've thrown my lot in with going for a big target in Manchester. I just don't know where I'd begin to 'bank' the training. What exactly would that realistically look like and what would an appropriate next block be? Back into 5k/10k stuff for a while before rebuilding towards an Autumn marathon (which is my main goal this year).

AuldManKing

sideswipe wrote: »

Finding it hard to get my head around that option as I've thrown my lot in with going for a big target in Manchester. I just don't know where I'd begin to 'bank' the training. What exactly would that realistically look like and what would an appropriate next block be? Back into 5k/10k stuff for a while before rebuilding towards an Autumn marathon (which is my main goal this year).

Its a good question - for me, Manchester is a bonus marathon this year, if it was Berlin that was looking dodgy (still might be) - then I'd be similar to you as that's my goal race this year.

I've PB'd at 5m/10m and hopefully HM off the back of this training - so I've got something from it.

If Manchester were to be cancelled - I'd be looking to HM's/10m/10k's initially (March/April) while also building in some more speed in the intervening weeks (200's & 400's - real speed work) for a few weeks then 4-5 weeks of VO2 stuff - always alternating with tempos to keep the strength you've gained.

Local races start coming thick and fast very soon.

Berlin training starts in June anyway

healy1835

sideswipe wrote: »

Finding it hard to get my head around that option as I've thrown my lot in with going for a big target in Manchester. I just don't know where I'd begin to 'bank' the training. What exactly would that realistically look like and what would an appropriate next block be? Back into 5k/10k stuff for a while before rebuilding towards an Autumn marathon (which is my main goal this year).

Yeah something similar to AMK, I'm running Amsterdam in the Autumn and whilst Manchester isn't a punt exactly, it was never the main target for the year. Saying that, I've put a hell of a lot of miles and effort in, so it's certainly the priority at the moment!

I've 5 Mile, 10 Mile PB's in the back pocket with hopefully a HM one to come Saturday..... but maybe I'd be feeling differently if I hadn't raced in the build up. That said, the idea of a Tralee or EOI marathon just wouldn't motivate me and Limerick or Cork are too close to the next block.

opus

Just to throw some doubt into people's minds for the VLM.



Fingers crossed for everyone who's entered.

pc11

Meath Athletics are cancelling various events this weekend. IMO this is completely uncalled for.

I'm all for caution and I can see this situation getting bad over time but there is NO reason to cancel a local XC event this week.

As my post above says I can see this situation getting serious in the coming weeks but right now there is zero risk in a small local event. There'd be as much risk buying milk in the shop, frankly.

Burkie1203

pc11 wrote: »

Meath Athletics are cancelling various events this weekend. IMO this is completely uncalled for.

I'm all for caution and I can see this situation getting bad over time but there is NO reason to cancel a local XC event this week.

As my post above says I can see this situation getting serious in the coming weeks but right now there is zero risk in a small local event. There'd be as much risk buying milk in the shop, frankly.

Bohermeen half in that category?

pc11

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Bohermeen half in that category?

Not as of now. They say it's up to Bohermeen AC.

The events are kids XC and indoors events I think. Of course the kids are already together in their schools which are not closed!

It's utterly pointless and only adds to the panic.

People say "ah sure you can't be too careful" which is ok up to a point but fear and panic are also harmful and spread a lot faster than a virus!

What I see happening now is a snowball of one cancelled events leads to another and another as everybody panics and nobody wants to be 'brave'.

Small local outdoor events have no risk as things stand. Official advice is to not cancel events.

OOnegative

pc11 wrote: »

Not as of now. They say it's up to Bohermeen AC.

The events are kids XC and indoors events I think. Of course the kids are already together in their schools which are not closed!

It's utterly pointless and only adds to the panic.

People say "ah sure you can't be too careful" which is ok up to a point but fear and panic are also harmful and spread a lot faster than a virus!

What I see happening now is a snowball of one cancelled events leads to another and another as everybody panics and nobody wants to be 'brave'.

Small local outdoor events have no risk as things stand. Official advice is to not cancel events.

More have contracted the Coronavirus here in The Netherlands than at home and no events are being cancelled. The CPC which will have upwards of over 15,000 running across various distances is on here Sunday and no mention or need for it to be cancelled.