Corona Virus and events

SuspectZero

adrian522 wrote: »

That guideline is about not having large events above those numbers. It doesn't say events below those numbers should go ahead.

The guidelines also state very clearly what I posted, you can't just ignore the bits you don't like.

If what you say is true why are so many events cancelled? Why are training sessions cancelled? Why are people being advised to stay home?

Also can you point me to the post where there was an "Internet Lynching" please since you introduced that phrase?

I dont need to prove it true, I already just posted the citizen info for you, what more do you want?. And they did say what you said too but that wasn't the full story as you can clearly see now, I haven't ignored any of your points and think they are hugely important in fact. You ignored all the posts which had that guideline which was also linked though which is what I'm bringing to your attention, which you called a stupid argument despite not even reading the links that showed the essence of the points been made. Training sessions and the like are cancelled because people are been even more cautious than the governmental guidelines.

adrian522

Where was the Internet Lynching? Please link to that.

What I called stupid was the initial post about the following:

"Sending home teenagers from school is a far greater threat than races"

That is patently nonsense.

"The witch-burnings and other national pastimes won't kick in for another two months"

Seriously, wtf?

"by which stage people will have ceased to operate the self-isolate strictures and so will be looking for human sacrifice to please their superstitions."

Human sacrifice? Really?

How anyone can defend that post is beyond me.

SuspectZero

adrian522 wrote: »

Where was the Internet Lynching? Please link to that.

What I called stupid was the initial post about the following:

"Sending home teenagers from school is a far greater threat than races"

That is patently nonsense.

"The witch-burnings and other national pastimes won't kick in for another two months"

Seriously, wtf?

"by which stage people will have ceased to operate the self-isolate strictures and so will be looking for human sacrifice to please their superstitions."

Human sacrifice? Really?

How anyone can defend that post is beyond me.

I'm not going down this pointless road with you, I can see where this is going and it won't be fruitful for anyone.

adrian522

SuspectZero wrote: »

I'm not going down this pointless road with you, I can see where this is going and it won't be fruitful for anyone.

Well when you throw around phrases like Internet Lynching you should at least be able to back it up.

Burkie1203

robinph wrote: »

Running a race or parkrun isn't making any difference to the likelihood of infections and its not putting any strain on the health services this week.

Can you back this up with any evidence as community transmissions grow?

robinph

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Can you back this up with any evidence as community transmissions grow?

Well I can't prove a negative, but if running a race is such a dangerous activity then presumably there would be a load of cases of people who are now infected from having run races a couple of weeks ago, or even who had gone to football/rugby matches. Scotland played in Italy three weeks ago, not aware of any cases in Scotland being attributed to that match. As far as I'm aware the community transmissions have been between people hanging out together in indoors situations or on planes.

As for the health service not yet being overwhelmed, I haven't seen any clusters in the UK or Ireland being reported as overwhelming the local hospitals. They will be, but not yet and are just preparing for it at the moment. Italy is overwhelmed because they had a very concentrated cluster in one area, that needs dealing with differently than what we have which is widespread and the population knows about it better, hence we are all taking different actions which hopefully won't result in the same kind of extreme measures needed in China and Italy. Probably will, but it might be avoidable and might be for a shorter time.

Murph_D

If they feel it is pertinent, parkrun Event Directors and Run Directors are well within their rights to cancel events - independently of parkrun HQ - for safety reasons.

It was suggested earlier that token and scanning volunteers (theoretically the only ones who have to come within into close contact with others in the course of doing their task) could wear gloves.

This is true, but if you asking volunteers to take any conceivable risk at all in order to to facilitate a parkrun event, you are perhaps at the stage where you should consider not holding the event at all. I'm sure that's one point that was made to parkrun HQ by Irish EDs during the week.

Don't know what the argument is here anyway - the decision has been made in Ireland and elsewhere. parkrun UK have decided to trust the advice they have been given locally as the UK pursues its 'herd immunity' strategy. Good luck to them - I hope they are right, but we are well within the bounds of reason here deciding to take a different path.

Burkie1203

robinph wrote: »

Well I can't prove a negative, but if running a race is such a dangerous activity then presumably there would be a load of cases of people who are now infected from having run races a couple of weeks ago, or even who had gone to football/rugby matches. Scotland played in Italy three weeks ago, not aware of any cases in Scotland being attributed to that match. As far as I'm aware the community transmissions have been between people hanging out together in indoors situations or on planes.

As for the health service not yet being overwhelmed, I haven't seen any clusters in the UK or Ireland being reported as overwhelming the local hospitals. They will be, but not yet and are just preparing for it at the moment. Italy is overwhelmed because they had a very concentrated cluster in one area, that needs dealing with differently than what we have which is widespread and the population knows about it better, hence we are all taking different actions which hopefully won't result in the same kind of extreme measures needed in China and Italy. Probably will, but it might be avoidable and might be for a shorter time.

Footballers in UK and Italy.
A member of DFB
Multiple frontline health service staff

Darkness into light, women's mini Marathon both postponed. Multiple marathons and halfs around europe postponed

Parkrun is not necessary because it adds to the potential.

robinph

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Footballers in UK and Italy.
A member of DFB
Multiple frontline health service staff

So not transmissions among the crowds in the stands then, but people who spend large quantities of time in close proximity to each other indoors.

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Darkness into light, women's mini Marathon both postponed. Multiple marathons and halfs around europe postponed

That doesn't prove that they are risky to participate in, just some combination of extreme caution from the organisers, anticipation that by the time the event comes around the health services will be under extreme pressure and they won't have access to support services needed.

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Parkrun is not necessary because it adds to the potential.

parkrun isn't an essential activity. It is an extremely useful one though and could be verging on essential for some people. I really hope that the prison events continue as they definitely fall into the essential category for the group they serve.

My point is merely that the risks of participating in parkrun this weekend are basically zero in the UK and Ireland. Not so much in northern Italy, but still wouldn't see what the problem is with going for a run around a park with a handful of other people.

DM_7

For me individual events such as a race are not an issue in their own right but they are a broader issue when all events are considered.

Right now, as a country we are asked to minimise social interactions outside important tasks. That is going to take time to achieve and like washing hands will take people time to get into good habits.

Continuing with races and other events that bring large groups of people together goes against the idea of creating the habits we need to have over the coming weeks.

Races can also bring people from many regions together. Right now health officials are trying to maintain clusters of the virus and there is a need to minimise the number of people travelling around.

It also important to note the large level of social interaction that most races feature. It just takes one person to bring the virus to another person to help spread this disease.

Society needs people do be able to do jobs, go to the shop, measures to reduce risk will be taken. It does not need races right now or need people coming up with ways to minimise risk in this type of group event.

Cartman78

Just seen on Sky Sports News there that a half marathon took place in Liverpool today with over 6,000 people taking part (!)

DM_7

This is a great example of how distancing can work and the last line is sobering on why it is so important to maximise the oppertunity for our health services and minimise the number of people who have the virus at any one time.

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1239267360739074048?s=19

sideswipe

Cartman78 wrote: »

Just seen on Sky Sports News there that a half marathon took place in Liverpool today with over 6,000 people taking part (!)

Bath half went ahead too. Think Paul Pollock one, isn’t he a doctor?

I think people saying small races, park runs etc don’t make a difference are missing the point, it’s about civic action to stop meeting in groups to give this threat a smaller chance of exacerbating exponentially.

It’s about people working together and in unison. Let’s all just do what we can take the inconvenience of not having races and hopefully get back to normal and do so with a new appreciation for our sport, health and loved ones.
I’ve been reading some disturbing info on recovered cases that is only starting to come through now as this thing is so new. The headline grabber is the deaths which of course in the older generation but there is increasing info on young, formerly healthy people that are coming out of this with permanent lung damage. We’re talking compromised lung capacity by 30-40% decrease. We need to stop thinking of this as an old people’s problem.

DM_7

Cartman78 wrote: »

Just seen on Sky Sports News there that a half marathon took place in Liverpool today with over 6,000 people taking part (!)

They want the virus to spread to the 'stronger' people in the UK.

Here we are trying to delay the rate of infection, the uk are trying to increase it to a certain level before slowing it down in the hope that it will leave them stronger in 6 months time when the second wave could hit (less people getting and less who can pass it on). Meanwhile telling those at high risk of complications to stay at home now.

I think it shows a country can have its own ideas but it is important citizens act in the way that meets the needs of their country.

sideswipe

DM_7 wrote: »

They want the virus to spread to the 'stronger' people in the UK.

Here we are trying to delay the rate of infection, the uk are trying to increase it to a certain level before slowing it down in the hope that it will leave them stronger in 6 months time when the second wave could hit (less people getting and less who can pass it on). Meanwhile telling those at high risk of complications to stay at home now.

I think it shows a country can have its own ideas but it is important citizens act in the way that meets the needs of their country.

They seem to be backing away from the herd immunity avenue already-

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/world/2020/3/15/21180414/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-vallance-johnson

Don’t think I ever remember such a fast moving international ‘event’, scary stuff.

plodder

sideswipe wrote: »

Bath half went ahead too. Think Paul Pollock one, isn’t he a doctor?

I think people saying small races, park runs etc don’t make a difference are missing the point, it’s about civic action to stop meeting in groups to give this threat a smaller chance of exacerbating exponentially.

It’s about people working together and in unison. Let’s all just do what we can take the inconvenience of not having races and hopefully get back to normal and do so with a new appreciation for our sport, health and loved ones.
I’ve been reading some disturbing info on recovered cases that is only starting to come through now as this thing is so new. The headline grabber is the deaths which of course in the older generation but there is increasing info on young, formerly healthy people that are coming out of this with permanent lung damage. We’re talking compromised lung capacity by 30-40% decrease. We need to stop thinking of this as an old people’s problem.

Do you have a link to that? Because, I listened to an Italian doctor on RTE Radio 1 today who (I'm fairly sure) said the complete opposite - that it was notable that people who recovered from the virus didn't show evidence of fibrosis (scarring) of the lungs

sideswipe

plodder wrote: »

Do you have a link to that? Because, I listened to an Italian doctor on RTE Radio 1 today who (I'm fairly sure) said the complete opposite - that it was notable that people who recovered from the virus didn't show evidence of fibrosis (scarring) of the lungs

Can’t find the main article, it was linked on Twitter, here’s another one I read-

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

I’ll see if I can find the other in the morning

average_runner

DM_7 wrote: »

They want the virus to spread to the 'stronger' people in the UK.

Here we are trying to delay the rate of infection, the uk are trying to increase it to a certain level before slowing it down in the hope that it will leave them stronger in 6 months time when the second wave could hit (less people getting and less who can pass it on). Meanwhile telling those at high risk of complications to stay at home now.

I think it shows a country can have its own ideas but it is important citizens act in the way that meets the needs of their country.

Here we are focused on saving lives. We are trying to keep the graph below our max ICU number of beds so we can give the best treatment we can. UK seems to want to blow that, hence more will die than necessary.

Italy blew it , now are at a level where they wont save a certain age group as lower priority

plodder

sideswipe wrote: »

Can’t find the main article, it was linked on Twitter, here’s another one I read-

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

I’ll see if I can find the other in the morning

The article seems to be referring to elderly patients rather than younger ones.

robinph

DM_7 wrote: »

They want the virus to spread to the 'stronger' people in the UK.

Here we are trying to delay the rate of infection, the uk are trying to increase it to a certain level before slowing it down in the hope that it will leave them stronger in 6 months time when the second wave could hit (less people getting and less who can pass it on). Meanwhile telling those at high risk of complications to stay at home now.

I think it shows a country can have its own ideas but it is important citizens act in the way that meets the needs of their country.

The UK is not trying to increase infection rates and the mention of herd immunity was never made as being their aim, just a potential side effect that would be useful if it happened.

The aim of the UK plan as of last week was purely down to making best use of the timing of a lockdown. Maybe shutting everyone's movements down totally now will slow infection rates, how long will that be effective for and what then happens when it fails and the rates rise again? The UK is just aiming to use the crude tool of a lockdown to slow the infection rate when they think they can then temporarily keep control in the health service.

It's a risky move with timing it right. But if they time it wrong they just end up in the same position as every other country will be when their lockdowns fail.

deisedude

If the Olympics do go ahead later this year or next year I hope Pollock isn't anywhere near it. Extremely selfish behaviour running Bath today.

sideswipe

plodder wrote: »

The article seems to be referring to elderly patients rather than younger ones.

That wasn’t my reading of it. Either way it’s still too early to fully comprehend lasting effects post recovery therefore, especially as runners to whom lung capacity is important, we should not be thinking of this as an old person’s disease.
I’ll post up that other piece when I find it.

laura_ac3

sideswipe wrote: »

That wasn’t my reading of it. Either way it’s still too early to fully comprehend lasting effects post recovery therefore, especially as runners to whom lung capacity is important, we should not be thinking of this as an old person’s disease.
I’ll post up that other piece when I find it.

You've hit the nail on the head with your own follow up. Too early to fully comprehend lasting effects post recovery is a different message to a definitive younger people being left with permanent damage. The article then linked says post sickness effects can be improved with exercise.

To be clear I'm not dismissing the potential seriousness to young or old but merely the importance of making sweeping concrete statements with no reputable source links or long term studies. The article linked references a small sample, has use of the words "might" and a vague "some". Again, I'm not disregarding the need to consider possibilities and potential outcomes but I think we all have a responsibility to be careful with our language and how we spread confirmed and potential information. There's a lot of misinformation and hypotheticals being passed off as gospel.

SuspectZero

sideswipe wrote: »

Can’t find the main article, it was linked on Twitter, here’s another one I read-

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

I’ll see if I can find the other in the morning

Alot of well known Docs have came out to debunk this saying there is no evidence to back up the claims that it is happening. General rule of thumb for twitter or the media is if it says "specialists say" "Doctors say" but doesn't back it up with an actual name and position, it should be taken with a grain of salt.

SuspectZero

average_runner wrote: »

Here we are focused on saving lives. We are trying to keep the graph below our max ICU number of beds so we can give the best treatment we can. UK seems to want to blow that, hence more will die than necessary.

Italy blew it , now are at a level where they wont save a certain age group as lower priority

It's not as simple as that, It would be great if it was but people need to keep open minds in this situation. Alot of people are looking at this as a COVID-19 problem, it's much more than that, it's a pandemic problem and that needs to be considered too. Let me give you an example, A country over-reacts and goes into lockdown which then cripples the economy, homelessness spirals out of control, people with other illnesses dont get treatment, supply lines collapse and this is before you see an explosion in suicide rates and mental health issues further down the road. An over reaction could cause more damage, death and suffering than the disease itself.

An underreaction which most people are talking about could cause the disease to explode and cause widespread death and destruction and many possible side effects and outcomes been mentioned around that could have been prevented had they acted earlier and stronger.

So while it's easy to say things like the curve needs to flattened at all costs and that is the stricter countries are more focused on saving lives, that may not be true because nobody knows whats going to happen or what is the best approach so people need to be open minded. These are the tough questions been asked in every government the world over, what is the right level of reaction? and I sure as heck don't envy any of them because an over reaction could be as costly as an under-reaction

average_runner

SuspectZero wrote: »

It's not as simple as that, It would be great if it was but people need to keep open minds in this situation. Alot of people are looking at this as a COVID-19 problem, it's much more than that, it's a pandemic problem and that needs to be considered too. Let me give you an example, A country over-reacts and goes into lockdown which then cripples the economy, homelessness spirals out of control, people with other illnesses dont get treatment, supply lines collapse and this is before you see an explosion in suicide rates and mental health issues further down the road. An over reaction could cause more damage, death and suffering than the disease itself.

An underreaction which most people are talking about could cause the disease to explode and cause widespread death and destruction and many possible side effects and outcomes been mentioned around that could have been prevented had they acted earlier and stronger.

So while it's easy to say things like the curve needs to flattened at all costs and that is the stricter countries are more focused on saving lives, that may not be true because nobody knows whats going to happen or what is the best approach so people need to be open minded. These are the tough questions been asked in every government the world over, what is the right level of reaction? and I sure as heck don't envy any of them because an over reaction could be as costly as an under-reaction

Good points but the economy is gone now. All over the world its crashing. Could be dark times ahead

Snodge

Does anyone think/know if IMC meets will go ahead? Or has it been suggested when races may start up again. Firstly, I admit that in the grand scheme of things races are not not important so please refrain from any nasty comments or critisim

IvoryTower

Snodge wrote: »

Does anyone think/know if IMC meets will go ahead? Or has it been suggested when races may start up again. Firstly, I admit that in the grand scheme of things races are not not important so please refrain from any nasty comments or critisim

As it stands they wont be on, just have to wait and see what happens

plodder

robinph wrote: »

It's a risky move with timing it right. But if they time it wrong they just end up in the same position as every other country will be when their lockdowns fail.

Not sure if you are equating lock downs with social distancing there, but there is a good article on the Washington Post with a simulation of the effects of lockdowns and social distancing generally. They don't have to be completely watertight to be effective and if the models are any way close to reality then will slow the increase in number of cases significantly. Though clearly, the more people that observe the restrictions, the better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=sf_coronavirus

IvoryTower

well the "lockdown" seems to have been bs anyway , still just pubs for now