Corona Virus and events

rovers_runner

I'd guess anything from Mid August will be fine.
Overseas travel may be a sticking point though as it may be slow to pick up with new regulations after such a gap.

sideswipe

rovers_runner wrote: »

I'd guess anything from Mid August will be fine.
Overseas travel may be a sticking point though as it may be slow to pick up with new regulations after such a gap.

I hope you are right. I’m feeling pessimistic though- there seems to be 3 options here:

1. Vaccine, will take 12-18 months.

2. Herd immunity, 2 years including a front line health service emergency for a prolonged period.

3. This is the new normal in the medium term ( the next year at least) resuming normal life will not include things that will further stress the healthy service i.e. mass participation event and spectator events. The resumption of basics such as industry and commerce will have to be priority over recreation.

Still hoping for a silver bullet though.

Burkie1203

rovers_runner wrote: »

I'd guess anything from Mid August will be fine.
Overseas travel may be a sticking point though as it may be slow to pick up with new regulations after such a gap.

DCM 10 miler late August is my guess.

Irish runner series will get PP or cancelled

RnR weekend would be a bonus.

Can see parkrun going untimed for a time too when it returns.

IvoryTower

sideswipe wrote: »

I hope you are right. I’m feeling pessimistic though- there seems to be 3 options here:

1. Vaccine, will take 12-18 months.

2. Herd immunity, 2 years including a front line health service emergency for a prolonged period.

3. This is the new normal in the medium term ( the next year at least) resuming normal life will not include things that will further stress the healthy service i.e. mass participation event and spectator events. The resumption of basics such as industry and commerce will have to be priority over recreation.

Still hoping for a silver bullet though.

Same, this year is wrote off i reckon. Maybe its just cause its so intense at the moment. With so many people in the high risk category it seems to me like we'll be waiting a long time. If you live with someone high risk you might as well be the person in this scenario cause you can't bring it home.

rovers_runner

sideswipe wrote: »

I hope you are right. I’m feeling pessimistic though- there seems to be 3 options here:

1. Vaccine, will take 12-18 months.

2. Herd immunity, 2 years including a front line health service emergency for a prolonged period.

3. This is the new normal in the medium term ( the next year at least) resuming normal life will not include things that will further stress the healthy service i.e. mass participation event and spectator events. The resumption of basics such as industry and commerce will have to be priority over recreation.

Still hoping for a silver bullet though.

I don't think the world's economies will wait in limbo for a vaccine.
I think that once you have a month of low numbers within a country they will announce they plan to relax restrictions in after another 4 weeks.
So it's at least 8 weeks for that process.
After that you'll have another month or so before events and organisers get the ok for mass gatherings.
So 12 weeks from a steady decrease before anything or normality is considered.

Youd need to have a serious decline in new instances starting mid May.
7 weeks from now, you'd expect us to either have some control by then or else it will have gone completely out of control....

If it goes to that stage its DCM 2021 here we come.

1882

It would have been the Mallow 10 mile today.
Instead I drank some beer... depressing.

Chivito550

Never thought I'd say it, but kind of glad Irish track meets are so badly attended. Gives us a fighting chance that the season will go ahead, even if it will be a delayed start.

pc11

I was imagining a hypothetical Beat the Bug event for the summer, something like a 5k (or maybe 10k) with the following conditions:

• Hold in June or July
• To enter you must have a negative Covid test cert within the last 7 days (or 5 days?)
• Or a positive covid test cert from at least 21 days previously so you should currently be cleared and immune
• No over 65s - sorry!
• No pregnant women - sorry!
• No kids - sorry!
• Hold it over a well established course so we have some benchmark to compare and no need to measure, one where we have lots of space
• ideally a single loop so we stay apart
• strict number limits
• lots of small waves every 15-30 seconds to ensure distancing, all lined up ready to go.
• spitting will disqualify!
• do not bring supporters
• hold at a time the park will be empty, maybe 8am?
• careful design of the finish area to keep people apart
• chips sent out by post. No physical interaction needed. No on the day registration obviously.
• No water obviously

This is just a thought exercise for fun, I have no plans to actually organise it. In theory you could hold it repeatedly.

Given the conditions of having an actual covid test result, the risk would be minimal in the first place. By June/July a LOT of people will have had a test.

Chivito550

pc11 wrote: »

I was imagining a hypothetical Beat the Bug event for the summer, something like a 5k (or maybe 10k) with the following conditions:

• Hold in June or July
• To enter you must have a negative Covid test cert within the last 7 days (or 5 days?)
• Or a positive covid test cert from at least 21 days previously so you should currently be cleared and immune
• No over 65s - sorry!
• No pregnant women - sorry!
• No kids - sorry!
• Hold it over a well established course so we have some benchmark to compare and no need to measure, one where we have lots of space
• ideally a single loop so we stay apart
• strict number limits
• lots of small waves every 15-30 seconds to ensure distancing, all lined up ready to go.
• spitting will disqualify!
• do not bring supporters
• hold at a time the park will be empty, maybe 8am?
• careful design of the finish area to keep people apart
• chips sent out by post. No physical interaction needed. No on the day registration obviously.
• No water obviously

This is just a thought exercise for fun, I have no plans to actually organise it. In theory you could hold it repeatedly.

Given the conditions of having an actual covid test result, the risk would be minimal in the first place. By June/July a LOT of people will have had a test.

Right, so those who weren't sick at all and therefore weren't tested are excluded?

pc11

Chivito550 wrote: »

Right, so those who weren't sick at all and therefore weren't tested are excluded?

Precisely. Only tested people can enter as I made clear.

You can easily be well and infected. A report the other day said that the majority of infections are now from asymptomatic people.

Obviously I'm assuming we're still in the sh1t at this time. If everything is over then this doesn't apply and we're back to normal (unlikely).

I'm imagining how you could theoretically hold a race while this is still going on and minimise risk.

Chivito550

pc11 wrote: »

Precisely. Only tested people can enter as I made clear.

You can easily be well and infected. A report the other day said that the majority of infections are now from asymptomatic people.

Obviously I'm assuming we're still in the sh1t at this time. If everything is over then this doesn't apply and we're back to normal (unlikely).

I'm imagining how you could theoretically hold a race while this is still going on and minimise risk.

Think no race would be better than this kind of race.

py

pc11 wrote: »

Precisely. Only tested people can enter as I made clear.

You can easily be well and infected. A report the other day said that the majority of infections are now from asymptomatic people.

Obviously I'm assuming we're still in the sh1t at this time. If everything is over then this doesn't apply and we're back to normal (unlikely).

I'm imagining how you could theoretically hold a race while this is still going on and minimise risk.

What's to stop people being clear for a test 7 days prior but picking it up since that test? It just introduces risk. Racing is done till Autumn at the earliest.

pc11

Chivito550 wrote: »

Think no race would be better than this kind of race.

https://images.app.goo.gl/6vwYfwFNmGiGWB6C7

Honestly, I knew the grumpy ****ers who are bored at home would react with nothing but moans. You do get what a hypothetical, for fun, thought exercise means, yes?

Ok, I'll bite but I'll probably regret it: seriously, how would this be worse than no race??

Chivito550

pc11 wrote: »

https://images.app.goo.gl/6vwYfwFNmGiGWB6C7

Honestly, I knew the grumpy ****ers who are bored at home would react with nothing but moans. You do get what a hypothetical, for fun, thought exercise means, yes?

Ok, I'll bite but I'll probably regret it: seriously, how would this be worse than no race??

You seem to be the grumpy one here.

pc11

py wrote: »

What's to stop people being clear for a test 7 days prior but picking it up since that test? It just introduces risk. Racing is done till Autumn at the earliest.

It's hypothetical. Calm down dear. We all know racing off for quite a qhile.

I picked that figure for a discussion. It's not meant to be a hard limit. You would pick a timeframe which reduces the risk to the desired level. Maybe the desired level is not feasible and you limit it to proven recovered (immune) people.

And yes I know about immunity and how it works, thanks. We don't know if you will get long-lasting immunity but you can expect short-medium term immunity.

pc11

Chivito550 wrote: »

You seem to be the grumpy one here.

I wasn't until 5 minutes ago.

IvoryTower

Virtual race, map out the route, everyone run it within period of a month, upload your Garmin data, get place and prize etc

robinph

Before the vaccine is mass administered and its generally assumed that the population is fairly safe from each other, not sure what kind of massed events can be held. Even if those who had previously had it were confirmed as then being OK, to have some kind of requirement that only the previously infected can attend an event would just encourage fake certificates or people to purposely go out to get infected.

robinph

The 24 hour trail event I ran last year at the end of July has just cancelled for this year. It's only a small setup, but they figured it's better to cancel now to increase their chances of being able to keep the company going unti next year, leaving it longer just increases their risks and costs.

Sussex18

robinph wrote: »

Before the vaccine is mass administered and its generally assumed that the population is fairly safe from each other, not sure what kind of massed events can be held. Even if those who had previously had it were confirmed as then being OK, to have some kind of requirement that only the previously infected can attend an event would just encourage fake certificates or people to purposely go out to get infected.

Yes even autumn events, certainly mass events I don't see how they can happen. This will be around as you said until there is a vaccine which has been widely administered. According to the World Health Organisation that's at least a year away. No matter what else helps there will still be a risk of contracting the virus in a mass participation event, maybe even more so as we head into winter. I don't see how any of the big events can happen this year and I'm dubious as to the smaller ones.

Dudda

IvoryTower wrote: »

Virtual race, map out the route, everyone run it within period of a month, upload your Garmin data, get place and prize etc

We have our own Boards.ie virtual race for anyone interested.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058064131

robinph

Not a running event, but just for how far out things are being cancelled, the Edinburgh Festival/ Tattoo /etc that happen in August have now all been called off.

Won't be long before they are re-cancelling the bumped to October marathons as well.

DM_7

robinph wrote: »

Not a running event, but just for how far out things are being cancelled, the Edinburgh Festival/ Tattoo /etc that happen in August have now all been called off.

Won't be long before they are re-cancelling the bumped to October marathons as well.

A couple of weeks ago I would have said 'nah should be fine by then' but now I expect it.

Van.Bosch

What do people think re DCM?

I’d say 30% chance of ii Going ahead. Obviously know one knows but that’s my guess.

rovers_runner

Van.Bosch wrote: »

What do people think re DCM?

I’d say 30% chance of ii Going ahead. Obviously know one knows but that’s my guess.

We will be starting to get back to normal in 2 months time. Loads of time.
Will be Sept before large events happen alright but DCM will hold fire in hope I'd say.

ligerdub

Is there really a need to be cancelling events many months into the future (particularly events mostly held to cater for domestic participants)?

KSU

ligerdub wrote: »

Is there really a need to be cancelling events many months into the future (particularly events mostly held to cater for domestic participants)?

When you factor in all the logistics - insurance, Garda approval, government road closure approval, medical support staff etc. Which need to be organised well in advance.

Also factoring in paying suppliers (normally early entry fees help cash reserves here) and running the risk of losing this money its having to refund participants this outlay can you blame events not wanting to leave themselves financially exposed

ger664

rovers_runner wrote: »

We will be starting to get back to normal in 2 months time. Loads of time.
Will be Sept before large events happen alright but DCM will hold fire in hope I'd say.

I don't think anything is going to go ahead this year. Even if we get some handle on the spread cannot see an 20,000 event plus spectators going ahead unless someone discovers a magic cure for covid before then.

Dudda

ger664 wrote: »

I don't think anything is going to go ahead this year. Even if we get some handle on the spread cannot see an 20,000 event plus spectators going ahead unless someone discovers a magic cure for covid before then.

Wow. That's not great news considering how far away it is. I didn't think it would go on that long but was probably more hopeful thinking.

What's your and other people's thoughts on smaller runs. For example a local 300-500 person 10k race or when will Parkrun's restart in Ireland?

IvoryTower

Dudda wrote: »

Wow. That's not great news considering how far away it is. I didn't think it would go on that long but was probably more hopeful thinking.

What's your and other people's thoughts on smaller runs. For example a local 300-500 person 10k race or when will Parkrun's restart in Ireland?

You see it all depends on the progress made with dealing with it. How many people are close to someone vulnerable, like a parent, asthma, auto immune disease etc. None of these people or the people they live with can risk going somewhere where there's groups of people until there's either a vaccine or they can at least be pretty sure you won't die from it. They say a vaccine will take over a year so...