Corona Virus and events

rovers_runner

robinph wrote: »

Here you go:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

There are a lot of different scenarios presented in there, but closing schools isn't rated as the most useful thing and is a potentially detrimental action to take. Also, if you close the schools you may get through until the summer, but then get hit with an even bigger outbreak in November under one of their models. Another alternative they modelled was shutting everything down for three months, opening thing up again, then shutting down again etc all based on the number of beds available in hospital at that moment...but that would have to continue for another 2 years and you basically have zero schooling during that time.

It is not a simple thing and it's going to get very, very bad.

I'd agree with the UK in keeping schools open.
You then keep kids with the teaching population who for the most part are healthy young people. This also frees up grand parents to be able to keep a distance.

Now you have the young and old generations thrown together out of a necessity. I have first hand experience and it has caused more problems than it appears to solve.

robinph

rovers_runner wrote: »

I'd say late July or Aug would be a time you'd expect to know where we stand for the remainder of the year.

Think we might actually be in a position where nothing is planned more than a month in advance. No big events for a couple of years. Things calm down for a bit and a few 10kms can be organised at short notice by clubs. Then things shut down again. Then you get a couple of short notice cross country races. Then things shut down again. etc

Unless we are very lucky and the virus burns out, or a vaccine is discovered next week, then we are entering a completely new world for a couple of years.

DM_7

rovers_runner wrote: »

The vast majority that have cancelled or postponed have been upfront and I'm fine with them not being able to offer refunds.
The only one I've noticed being particularly vague is the GIR which being organised by AI surprised me to see, although there is a one liner about it being postponed you can still enter.
They must be waiting on a permit for the park on a later date.

God help them but you couldn't invest in a date anytime
this year with any confidence at the moment.


I would think though in general we will reach a point in the late summer where if things haven't tailed off then govts will have to strike a balance between returning to normal and restricted measures...
I'd say late July or Aug would be a time you'd expect to know where we stand for the remainder of the year.

I think in the context of a race event, a lack of a refund should be excusable right now. With all the uncertainty, decisions to hold off on a cancellation and not offering a refund might help keep some companies, charities, local clubs, organisations and so go on.

In the end the money is gone when sent, booking place and actually taking part in the race would not change that.

It is not nice to not get value for money and I am sure lots of people would like to have an extra 30, 40, 50 euro right now but I do think overall the benefit or individuals getting some cash back is probably not that important.

adrian522

OOnegative wrote: »

Ya forgot Notwork Error!!

How many accounts does one person need

Murph_D

robinph wrote: »

Here you go:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

There are a lot of different scenarios presented in there, but closing schools isn't rated as the most useful thing and is a potentially detrimental action to take. Also, if you close the schools you may get through until the summer, but then get hit with an even bigger outbreak in November under one of their models. Another alternative they modelled was shutting everything down for three months, opening thing up again, then shutting down again etc all based on the number of beds available in hospital at that moment...but that would have to continue for another 2 years and you basically have zero schooling during that time.

It is not a simple thing and it's going to get very, very bad.

Thanks for that link but it’s NOT the evidence I was referring to (behavioural modelling).

MY BAD

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=1865

SuspectZero

adrian522 wrote: »

How many accounts does one person need

keep the undermining personal attacks coming lads, shows what little interest ye have in debate, a mod no less too. I've no problem chatting when ye want actual discussion and get tired of attacking the poster.

KSU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQU6e-r06Z4

average_runner

robinph wrote: »

Think we might actually be in a position where nothing is planned more than a month in advance. No big events for a couple of years. Things calm down for a bit and a few 10kms can be organised at short notice by clubs. Then things shut down again. Then you get a couple of short notice cross country races. Then things shut down again. etc

Unless we are very lucky and the virus burns out, or a vaccine is discovered next week, then we are entering a completely new world for a couple of years.

4 or 5 different camps claim to have a vaccine and in test phase. This can only give us hope.

adrian522

This situation is tough and its going to get worse. I don't see any organised training much less racing over the next few months.

I've found these last few days very tough, I live alone and given the age of my parents there is no scope for a visit any time soon. I'm not really looking forward to the next few months at all.

Realistically the fact that races are not going on is really unimportant but for many of us it means a great deal. For me running is my main social outlet. From now it looks like this will become an exclusively solo exercise.

Wishing everybody all the best, hoping everyone follows the guidelines but so far I'm not seeing people doing that. Even in the supermarket people aren't giving enough space while queuing up.

I hope it'll be ok but I'm pretty worried about the next few months in this country.

Burkie1203

adrian522 wrote: »

This situation is tough and its going to get worse. I don't see any organised training much less racing over the next few months.

I've found these last few days very tough, I live alone and given the age of my parents there is no scope for a visit any time soon. I'm not really looking forward to the next few months at all.

Realistically the fact that races are not going on is really unimportant but for many of us it means a great deal. For me running is my main social outlet. From now it looks like this will become an exclusively solo exercise.

Wishing everybody all the best, hoping everyone follows the guidelines but so far I'm not seeing people doing that. Even in the supermarket people aren't giving enough space while queuing up.

I hope it'll be ok but I'm pretty worried about the next few months in this country.

Irish Runner 5k and 5 miler likely to be next to bite the dust. Think July 1st at the earliest before anything gets staged.

It's also going to present challenges to organisers as water stations, finish areas, bag drop areas etc all will have to have new guidelines.

Chivito550

If the Olympics get postponed until 2021 (which would mean Eugene World Championships would need to move to 2022, which would in turn clash with Europeans), then I hope AAI, IMC etc have the common sense to push all meets/championships back to August/September so that there will still be an outdoor season. The UK track season goes well into September so it can be done despite the cooler temperatures.

IvoryTower

I think they work around national seniors, so I guess it might depend on if there is one...

average_runner

Chivito550 wrote: »

If the Olympics get postponed until 2021 (which would mean Eugene World Championships would need to move to 2022, which would in turn clash with Europeans), then I hope AAI, IMC etc have the common sense to push all meets/championships back to August/September so that there will still be an outdoor season. The UK track season goes well into September so it can be done despite the cooler temperatures.

Usually better weather in Sept also

echancrure

Burkie1203 wrote: »

It's also going to present challenges to organisers as water stations, finish areas, bag drop areas etc all will have to have new guidelines.

It would be interesting to see road races (including marathons) being self supported with no water etc. provided. It would take care of that problem and reduce waste.

Guill

I think these events will rely on people having their own water belts. Up until this I did think there would be a rise in people using their own water as races go plastic free. This will probably accelerate that.

IvoryTower

I'm not expecting there to be a track season. It's going to be weird training all summer for maybe a time trial. Even if some events went ahead with a high risk missus I likely wont go.

The only positive is I'll probably be really fit from working at home.

robinph

Guill wrote: »

I think these events will rely on people having their own water belts. Up until this I did think there would be a rise in people using their own water as races go plastic free. This will probably accelerate that.

Different weather admittedly from doing a race during the summer, but got within a minute of a 20mile PB at the weekend and didn't take any water or gels along the way from the water/ feed stations. Just had the gels I was carrying and nothing else as far as water was concerned except what was falling out of the sky.

Might put an end to the daft recommendations in the like of the London Marathon magazine saying drink a litre an hour or something equally dangerous.

Guill

I generally don't take water on for anything less that a 10 mile. I wouldn't recommend that to anyone else as everyone is different but it works for me. Above that it's small sips at regular intervals so I don't fill my bladder, that's why a belt should be ok for me.

I was actually at a race last year that started handing back out partly used water bottles. It was a hotter than expected day and they ran out. Aside from the horror it caused then, imagine if it happened now!

Chivito550

IvoryTower wrote: »

I'm not expecting there to be a track season. It's going to be weird training all summer for maybe a time trial. Even if some events went ahead with a high risk missus I likely wont go.

The only positive is I'll probably be really fit from working at home.

I find it hard to get motivated to train without races. I'm training right now under the assumption there WILL be some sort of a track season. It's the only way I'll go out of my way to train.

average_runner

echancrure wrote: »

It would be interesting to see road races (including marathons) being self supported with no water etc. provided. It would take care of that problem and reduce waste.

Once the elites follows the same rules, its fair

Sacksian

I saw a tweet by Ciarán Ó Lionaird (I think) during the week where he suggested that runners should see this an opportunity to train without being led by a short-term goal or race. I thought it was a good point.

You can take it as a chance to just build mileage without the pressure of having to introduce workouts to peak for a race or season or you could add in some element of training that you've never had the time to concentrate on before or sessions that you've wanted to have a pop at but that didn't fit into your training.

I'm hoping to just run more and I have a few ideas for sessions that I've wanted to try for a while. I might even do a long run over 16miles for the first time in 8 years!

opus

adrian522 wrote: »

This situation is tough and its going to get worse. I don't see any organised training much less racing over the next few months.

I've found these last few days very tough, I live alone and given the age of my parents there is no scope for a visit any time soon. I'm not really looking forward to the next few months at all.

Realistically the fact that races are not going on is really unimportant but for many of us it means a great deal. For me running is my main social outlet. From now it looks like this will become an exclusively solo exercise.

Wishing everybody all the best, hoping everyone follows the guidelines but so far I'm not seeing people doing that. Even in the supermarket people aren't giving enough space while queuing up.

I hope it'll be ok but I'm pretty worried about the next few months in this country.

Commiserations I know the feeling, was feeling a bit down yesterday as cancelled a planned hike with a few people last min due to the current situation & between the parkrun cancellation & looking at all the races that have bit the dust was feeling a bit sorry for myself. Thankfully I had something to figure out for work & a bunch of episodes of the sci-fi series Altered Carbon on hand which stopped me moping around too much.

Feel a lot better today, didn't have to be in work 'til lunchtime so got in a handy 20k this morning. Actually maybe even a bit refreshing to run with no actual pace or structure to follow.

Hang in there....

adrian522

opus wrote: »

Commiserations I know the feeling, was feeling a bit down yesterday as cancelled a planned hike with a few people last min due to the current situation & between the parkrun cancellation & looking at all the races that have bit the dust was feeling a bit sorry for myself. Thankfully I had something to figure out for work & a bunch of episodes of the sci-fi series Altered Carbon on hand which stopped me moping around too much.

Feel a lot better today, didn't have to be in work 'til lunchtime so got in a handy 20k this morning. Actually maybe even a bit refreshing to run with no actual pace or structure to follow.

Hang in there....

Thanks Opus. Keep up the good work.

It should be a good opportunity for people to get a solid block of training in, particularly base building for hopefully a target race in the autumn.

I've been advised to stop exercising for the time being so no running at all for the next few days at least.

Itziger

Folks, what's the furthest away big event that has and has not been cancelled or postponed?

I know Cork has gone from May 31st to Sept. 6th (which might be optimistic!!)

Are people just thinking Autumn at this stage?

TFBubendorfer

Itziger wrote: »

Folks, what's the furthest away big event that has and has not been cancelled or postponed?

I know Cork has gone from May 31st to Sept. 6th (which might be optimistic!!)

Are people just thinking Autumn at this stage?

I'm not thinking anything at the moment. Anything is just pure guesswork at the moment, we might be back to racing in the autumn, or we may not.

My nearest event not cancelled at the moment is the Ironman in Youghal at the end of June but I really cannot see that going ahead. The other one is DCM, and I haven't a clue if that will go ahead or not.

average_runner

TFBubendorfer wrote: »

I'm not thinking anything at the moment. Anything is just pure guesswork at the moment, we might be back to racing in the autumn, or we may not.

My nearest event not cancelled at the moment is the Ironman in Youghal at the end of June but I really cannot see that going ahead. The other one is DCM, and I haven't a clue if that will go ahead or not.

Optimistically I say June but no travel outside Ireland till Sept.

ISOP

Itziger wrote: »

Are people just thinking Autumn at this stage?

I'm thinking 2021 to be honest, if we are lucky..This thing ain't going away soon..

average_runner

ISOP wrote: »

I'm thinking 2021 to be honest, if we are lucky..This thing ain't going away soon..

From what I saw going on today, I am losing all hope in people

ger664

ISOP wrote: »

I'm thinking 2021 to be honest, if we are lucky..This thing ain't going away soon..

Agree with this don't see anything being back to normal until we develop anti-viruals/vacine or it runs its course through the herd.

My current plan is to still be vertical when this is over.

rovers_runner

I'd guess anything from Mid August will be fine.
Overseas travel may be a sticking point though as it may be slow to pick up with new regulations after such a gap.

sideswipe

rovers_runner wrote: »

I'd guess anything from Mid August will be fine.
Overseas travel may be a sticking point though as it may be slow to pick up with new regulations after such a gap.

I hope you are right. I’m feeling pessimistic though- there seems to be 3 options here:

1. Vaccine, will take 12-18 months.

2. Herd immunity, 2 years including a front line health service emergency for a prolonged period.

3. This is the new normal in the medium term ( the next year at least) resuming normal life will not include things that will further stress the healthy service i.e. mass participation event and spectator events. The resumption of basics such as industry and commerce will have to be priority over recreation.

Still hoping for a silver bullet though.

Burkie1203

rovers_runner wrote: »

I'd guess anything from Mid August will be fine.
Overseas travel may be a sticking point though as it may be slow to pick up with new regulations after such a gap.

DCM 10 miler late August is my guess.

Irish runner series will get PP or cancelled

RnR weekend would be a bonus.

Can see parkrun going untimed for a time too when it returns.

IvoryTower

sideswipe wrote: »

I hope you are right. I’m feeling pessimistic though- there seems to be 3 options here:

1. Vaccine, will take 12-18 months.

2. Herd immunity, 2 years including a front line health service emergency for a prolonged period.

3. This is the new normal in the medium term ( the next year at least) resuming normal life will not include things that will further stress the healthy service i.e. mass participation event and spectator events. The resumption of basics such as industry and commerce will have to be priority over recreation.

Still hoping for a silver bullet though.

Same, this year is wrote off i reckon. Maybe its just cause its so intense at the moment. With so many people in the high risk category it seems to me like we'll be waiting a long time. If you live with someone high risk you might as well be the person in this scenario cause you can't bring it home.

rovers_runner

sideswipe wrote: »

I hope you are right. I’m feeling pessimistic though- there seems to be 3 options here:

1. Vaccine, will take 12-18 months.

2. Herd immunity, 2 years including a front line health service emergency for a prolonged period.

3. This is the new normal in the medium term ( the next year at least) resuming normal life will not include things that will further stress the healthy service i.e. mass participation event and spectator events. The resumption of basics such as industry and commerce will have to be priority over recreation.

Still hoping for a silver bullet though.

I don't think the world's economies will wait in limbo for a vaccine.
I think that once you have a month of low numbers within a country they will announce they plan to relax restrictions in after another 4 weeks.
So it's at least 8 weeks for that process.
After that you'll have another month or so before events and organisers get the ok for mass gatherings.
So 12 weeks from a steady decrease before anything or normality is considered.

Youd need to have a serious decline in new instances starting mid May.
7 weeks from now, you'd expect us to either have some control by then or else it will have gone completely out of control....

If it goes to that stage its DCM 2021 here we come.

1882

It would have been the Mallow 10 mile today.
Instead I drank some beer... depressing.

Chivito550

Never thought I'd say it, but kind of glad Irish track meets are so badly attended. Gives us a fighting chance that the season will go ahead, even if it will be a delayed start.

pc11

I was imagining a hypothetical Beat the Bug event for the summer, something like a 5k (or maybe 10k) with the following conditions:

• Hold in June or July
• To enter you must have a negative Covid test cert within the last 7 days (or 5 days?)
• Or a positive covid test cert from at least 21 days previously so you should currently be cleared and immune
• No over 65s - sorry!
• No pregnant women - sorry!
• No kids - sorry!
• Hold it over a well established course so we have some benchmark to compare and no need to measure, one where we have lots of space
• ideally a single loop so we stay apart
• strict number limits
• lots of small waves every 15-30 seconds to ensure distancing, all lined up ready to go.
• spitting will disqualify!
• do not bring supporters
• hold at a time the park will be empty, maybe 8am?
• careful design of the finish area to keep people apart
• chips sent out by post. No physical interaction needed. No on the day registration obviously.
• No water obviously

This is just a thought exercise for fun, I have no plans to actually organise it. In theory you could hold it repeatedly.

Given the conditions of having an actual covid test result, the risk would be minimal in the first place. By June/July a LOT of people will have had a test.

Chivito550

pc11 wrote: »

I was imagining a hypothetical Beat the Bug event for the summer, something like a 5k (or maybe 10k) with the following conditions:

• Hold in June or July
• To enter you must have a negative Covid test cert within the last 7 days (or 5 days?)
• Or a positive covid test cert from at least 21 days previously so you should currently be cleared and immune
• No over 65s - sorry!
• No pregnant women - sorry!
• No kids - sorry!
• Hold it over a well established course so we have some benchmark to compare and no need to measure, one where we have lots of space
• ideally a single loop so we stay apart
• strict number limits
• lots of small waves every 15-30 seconds to ensure distancing, all lined up ready to go.
• spitting will disqualify!
• do not bring supporters
• hold at a time the park will be empty, maybe 8am?
• careful design of the finish area to keep people apart
• chips sent out by post. No physical interaction needed. No on the day registration obviously.
• No water obviously

This is just a thought exercise for fun, I have no plans to actually organise it. In theory you could hold it repeatedly.

Given the conditions of having an actual covid test result, the risk would be minimal in the first place. By June/July a LOT of people will have had a test.

Right, so those who weren't sick at all and therefore weren't tested are excluded?

pc11

Chivito550 wrote: »

Right, so those who weren't sick at all and therefore weren't tested are excluded?

Precisely. Only tested people can enter as I made clear.

You can easily be well and infected. A report the other day said that the majority of infections are now from asymptomatic people.

Obviously I'm assuming we're still in the sh1t at this time. If everything is over then this doesn't apply and we're back to normal (unlikely).

I'm imagining how you could theoretically hold a race while this is still going on and minimise risk.

Chivito550

pc11 wrote: »

Precisely. Only tested people can enter as I made clear.

You can easily be well and infected. A report the other day said that the majority of infections are now from asymptomatic people.

Obviously I'm assuming we're still in the sh1t at this time. If everything is over then this doesn't apply and we're back to normal (unlikely).

I'm imagining how you could theoretically hold a race while this is still going on and minimise risk.

Think no race would be better than this kind of race.

py

pc11 wrote: »

Precisely. Only tested people can enter as I made clear.

You can easily be well and infected. A report the other day said that the majority of infections are now from asymptomatic people.

Obviously I'm assuming we're still in the sh1t at this time. If everything is over then this doesn't apply and we're back to normal (unlikely).

I'm imagining how you could theoretically hold a race while this is still going on and minimise risk.

What's to stop people being clear for a test 7 days prior but picking it up since that test? It just introduces risk. Racing is done till Autumn at the earliest.

pc11

Chivito550 wrote: »

Think no race would be better than this kind of race.

https://images.app.goo.gl/6vwYfwFNmGiGWB6C7

Honestly, I knew the grumpy ****ers who are bored at home would react with nothing but moans. You do get what a hypothetical, for fun, thought exercise means, yes?

Ok, I'll bite but I'll probably regret it: seriously, how would this be worse than no race??

Chivito550

pc11 wrote: »

https://images.app.goo.gl/6vwYfwFNmGiGWB6C7

Honestly, I knew the grumpy ****ers who are bored at home would react with nothing but moans. You do get what a hypothetical, for fun, thought exercise means, yes?

Ok, I'll bite but I'll probably regret it: seriously, how would this be worse than no race??

You seem to be the grumpy one here.

pc11

py wrote: »

What's to stop people being clear for a test 7 days prior but picking it up since that test? It just introduces risk. Racing is done till Autumn at the earliest.

It's hypothetical. Calm down dear. We all know racing off for quite a qhile.

I picked that figure for a discussion. It's not meant to be a hard limit. You would pick a timeframe which reduces the risk to the desired level. Maybe the desired level is not feasible and you limit it to proven recovered (immune) people.

And yes I know about immunity and how it works, thanks. We don't know if you will get long-lasting immunity but you can expect short-medium term immunity.

pc11

Chivito550 wrote: »

You seem to be the grumpy one here.

I wasn't until 5 minutes ago.

IvoryTower

Virtual race, map out the route, everyone run it within period of a month, upload your Garmin data, get place and prize etc

robinph

Before the vaccine is mass administered and its generally assumed that the population is fairly safe from each other, not sure what kind of massed events can be held. Even if those who had previously had it were confirmed as then being OK, to have some kind of requirement that only the previously infected can attend an event would just encourage fake certificates or people to purposely go out to get infected.

robinph

The 24 hour trail event I ran last year at the end of July has just cancelled for this year. It's only a small setup, but they figured it's better to cancel now to increase their chances of being able to keep the company going unti next year, leaving it longer just increases their risks and costs.

Sussex18

robinph wrote: »

Before the vaccine is mass administered and its generally assumed that the population is fairly safe from each other, not sure what kind of massed events can be held. Even if those who had previously had it were confirmed as then being OK, to have some kind of requirement that only the previously infected can attend an event would just encourage fake certificates or people to purposely go out to get infected.

Yes even autumn events, certainly mass events I don't see how they can happen. This will be around as you said until there is a vaccine which has been widely administered. According to the World Health Organisation that's at least a year away. No matter what else helps there will still be a risk of contracting the virus in a mass participation event, maybe even more so as we head into winter. I don't see how any of the big events can happen this year and I'm dubious as to the smaller ones.