Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

Are those labour rebels still members of the parliamentary party?

Professor Moriarty

Bambi wrote: »

You've asked three times and I've asked you to follow your own logic, you've been dragged to admitting that I was right on two counts but won't take the final step, that you can't reliably state that a NI vote to establish a hard border in four years is unforeseeable. Whereas, two days ago it was impossible.

So before I answer, did any of those events seem likely to you a year before they occurred. Just bear in mind that your credibility rests on you answering in the negative to that

Damn. Got me with one of your scenarios. I didn't predict "Nazis winning seats in Germany" in 1932. There goes my credibility.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The British could and quite feasibly (if it suited them) and easily ignored the backstop at any point they wished.
.

If they could have they would have and yet they refused to even risk it, when doing so would have solved many of their problems Because the consequences of ignoring an agreed backstop would never suit them

With all due respect Francie you were posting a few minutes ago that there is no published text as yet minutes, ago when it was published earlier today, so you haven't even read the thing

gooch2k9

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Will the DUP vote against it? They might abstain if that not certain of their numbers.

They have said they'll vote against it, not abstain.

joe40

Bambi wrote: »

Guess what? It is being imposed on us with no say so

Not really, the decision is been given to the people of northern Ireland through their representatives in storming.
If majority do want to leave the process resulting in hard border it will be their informed choice.
In the same way if a majority want a United Ireland it will be their choice.

Imreoir2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184870424582209537

Varadkar has sacrificed the backstop in the hope that Stormont's ghost parliament puts pragmatism before patriotism. In the event that Stormont is not operational, we're relying on the UK government to convene a sitting of MLAs to push through a deal based on a simple majority.

He essentially conceded to a time limited backstop (4 years) with the difference being rather than relying on a dysfunctional Westminster at the end of the period, we're relying on a dysfunctional Stormont.

What does it matter if Stormount is functional or dysfunctional? The important point is if a majority of MLAs want a hard border or not, currently a majority do not want a hard border. If the good people of NI choose to elect a majority of MLAs who support a hard border, then on their own heads be it.

jimmycrackcorm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Will the DUP vote against it? They might abstain if that not certain of their numbers.

They have to vote against it as protecting our precious union is their core being. Nothing to do with voting to protect their constituents.

Dyr

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Damn. Got me with one of your scenarios. I didn't predict "Nazis winning seats in Germany" in 1932. There goes my credibility.

They won seats in 2017. Unless you're going to defend AfD from accusations of being Nazis.

That said, levity might be your best recourse now. Sticky enough wicket you're on there

Jamiekelly

Bambi wrote: »

They won seats in 2017. Unless you're going to defend AfD from accusations of being Nazis.

That said, levity might be your best recourse now. Sticky enough wicket you're on there

To be fair Bambi in one post you claimed that this is being imposed on us without us having a say while a few posts earlier you complained that there is even a vote on it continuing to be imposed. You're building strawmen all over this thread the last hour or so. Sticky wickets and all that...

Water John

If the vote is won by one vote, it is respected by Parliament. It would be, move on time, for all parties in the HOC. I wouldn't see it being an issue.
The will of Parliament is sovereign.

Professor Moriarty

Bambi wrote: »

They won seats in 2017. Unless you're going to defend AfD from accusations of being Nazis.

That said, levity might be your best recourse now. Sticky enough wicket you're on there

Then you should have said AFD not "Nazis". Fifth time:

Under what circumstances will NI vote to impose a hard border?

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

If the vote is won by one vote, it is respected by Parliament. It would be, move on time, for all parties in the HOC. I wouldn't see it being an issue.
The will of Parliament is sovereign.

It would probably be very divisive though. Legally, the UK would indeed leave on Oct 31 but a controversial and contentious WA like this going through by one vote would surely lead to a foul and resentful atmosphere in the country.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

prunudo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

What happens if it ends up all square? Just when you thought you'd seen it all with Brexit.

Kermit.de.frog

prunudo wrote: »

What happens if it ends up all square?

Speaker has casting vote?

GM228

If the Scottish courts hold the WA is unlawful tomorrow (unlikely there would be a judgement until Monday) then any vote on Saturday may be scuppered...

Dyr

joe40 wrote: »

Not really, the decision is been given to the people of northern Ireland through their representatives in storming.
If majority do want to leave the process resulting in hard border it will be their informed choice.
In the same way if a majority want a United Ireland it will be their choice.

The Good Friday agreement was not arrived at by the elected representatives of the the NI assembly, it was an international agreement between two Governments that was explicitly approved by the electorates on both sides of the border. Its whole purpose was that it was arrived at as an All Ireland Agreement not some internal settlement in Ulster.

It would be bad enough if it could now be undone by a simple majority of voters via referendum in the North but now it can be undone by bloody MLAs. No inter govermental agreement, no referendums on either side of the border.

A sizable lump of SF voters do not want a UI but they will vote for a party that does. A sizable lump of DUP voters do not a hard border but they will vote for a party that does.

And in case you haven't noticed elected politicians don't always vote they way that they promise the electorate that they will. We had referendums on this for a reason, we have a bloody constitution for this reason. Some issues are too important to be just rolled into elections

joseywhales

Speakers vote in a tie right?

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

If they could have they would have and yet they refused to even risk it, when doing so would have solved many of their problems Because the consequences of ignoring an agreed backstop would never suit them

With all due respect Francie you were posting a few minutes ago that there is no published text as yet minutes, ago when it was published earlier today, so you haven't even read the thing

Apologies, I didn't know there was a published text, I was going on what Tony Connelly tweeted. (Maybe he was quoting the offficial text)

If it suited the British or a situation evolved, the backstop wouldn't be worth the paper it was written on...everyone knew that.

There was no agreement at the negotiations so that Hard Border was looming with years of both sides blaming the other and a political and social mess.

This way, if a hard border emerges then there will be very specific reasons and clearly responsible people for it and consequences for them.

As a border dweller (smack bang on it, in fact) that is a much much better situation to be in.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Speaker has casting vote?

Speaker will vote with the government according to convention.

joseywhales

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Speaker will vote with the government according to convention.

Bercow will break the convention surely

Professor Moriarty

joseywhales wrote: »

Bercow will break the convention surely

Dunno. He shouldn't IMO.

joseywhales

joseywhales wrote: »

Bercow will break the convention surely

Lol, sorry disregard, Brexit is confusing!

Strazdas

joseywhales wrote: »

Bercow will break the convention surely

Could Johnson bring the deal back for a second vote (as May did)?

Dyr

Jamiekelly wrote: »

To be fair Bambi in one post you claimed that this is being imposed on us without us having a say while a few posts earlier you complained that there is even a vote on it continuing to be imposed. You're building strawmen all over this thread the last hour or so. Sticky wickets and all that...

Do the people of Ireland or the Irish Government get any say in whether this hard border will appear in four years time?

Answer is no

Thats a strawman made of brick, blow harder

joe40

Bambi wrote: »

The Good Friday agreement was not arrived at by the elected representatives of the the NI assembly, it was an international agreement between two Governments that was explicitly approved by the electorates on both sides of the border. Its whole purpose was that it was arrived at as an All Ireland Agreement not some internal settlement in Ulster.

It would be bad enough if it could now be undone by a simple majority of voters via referendum in the North but now it can be undone by bloody MLAs. No inter govermental agreement, no referendums on either side of the border.

A sizable lump of SF voters do not want a UI but they will vote for a party that does. A sizable lump of DUP voters do not a hard border but they will vote for a party that does.

And in case you haven't noticed elected politicians don't always vote they way that they promise the electorate that they will. We had referendums on this for a reason, we have a bloody constitution for this reason. Some issues are too important to be just rolled into elections

I could stand corrected on this but was the vote in the south not just a referendum on amening the Constitution to remove our claim on northern Ireland. The decision to actually accept the agreement was made by the people in the north.
I still think this proposal beats no deal by a long way.

Joe_ Public

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

How is that a tie when at least 13 votes are unaccounted for? I mean, could happen but that isn't any indication anyway. A tie is a win for government effectively.

GM228

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Speaker will vote with the government according to convention.

Not necessarily, if it's a tie than Bercow would be obliged to vote no as opposed to vote with the Government, important decisions must only be made by the majority so when there is a tie he must reject, based upon the Speaker Denison’s Rule, he confirmed this earlier this year.

brick tamland

Im not sure it matters that much if it fails on saturday. 6 month extension and a election. Cons get a majority as boris is the man who secured a "great" deal. Brexit party become a irrelevance and Labour and Lib Dems split the remain votes. Boris has won his new term imo.

correct horse battery staple

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The 4 year thing has one positive, it makes investment less likely to leave Ireland for Northern Ireland, who in their right mind would setup shop there?

Why, NI has effectively become a DMZ between the UK & EU, would be a great place to "repackage" goods to meet the standards of the other side.