Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

sondagefaux

Bambi wrote: »

For the last three years it was the risk their entire strategy was built around accepting. That if the Brits caused a hard border then so be it but they would not compromise on the backstop. You may have noticed Leo being quite vocal on the subject during the summer

That tune changed yesterday. Personally I think because EU got the compromises they wanted in other areas.

At least you admit the tune changed, you've some strange sorts of reverse brexiteers around here trying to deny the reality that:

The deal will give the Stormont Assembly the ability to impose a hard border by leaving the arrangement.

The Irish Government rolled back on their red line

Weird carry on tbh

In theory Stormont can opt-out. In practice, it won't.

If you know for a certainty that the Northern Ireland Assembly will never vote to opt-out of Northern Ireland following EU rules on product standards, customs and VAT, why wouldn't you allow the Assembly to have a say on the matter?

It's a theoretical concession that means nothing in practice.

Kermit.de.frog

FT saying Boris is confident he can win the DUP over.


That means money and lots of it!

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/RickOShea321/status/1184793872314130432

This is a bit awkward...and also hilarious, and sad.

thecretinhop

i am not a fan of EU Varadkar etc but this deal does look decent, or best of bad bunch.
i am bewildered why DUP fighting it...

Tacitus Kilgore

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JamieBrysonCPNI/status/1184872071291166723

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.



I was a little sceptic of the proposed arrangements earlier but having read through the thread my worries have faded away. Will have to wait and see how saturday pans out, I would be cautiously edging towards it passing.

Frank Bullitt

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.



I was a little sceptic of the proposed arrangements earlier but having read through the thread my worries have faded away. Will have to wait and see how saturday pans out, I would be cautiously edging towards it passing.

I am the same.

Was texting my friend about it and how the deal looks, it all faded away once we asked each other how we thought it would do in the HoC. I am on the side of it failing.

FrancieBrady

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.



.

It's vicious and he deserves a lot of it tbh.

54and56

Bambi wrote: »

The deal will give the Stormont Assembly the ability to impose a hard border by leaving the arrangement.

The Irish Government rolled back on their red line

Weird carry on tbh

Completely disagree.

The WA ensures no hard border unless a majority of people in NI wish to impose one.

You can only have a soft or invisible border with the consent of the parties on either side. If NI no longer want an invisible border for some reason they should be allowed to make that decision.

Atlantic Dawn

I still can't understand the joy and celebrations on RTE as if world peace has just been announced, there's not a chance in hell this will get voted in on Saturday.

thecretinhop

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't understand the joy and celebrations on RTE as if world peace has just been announced, there's not a chance in hell this will get voted in on Saturday.

politics is strange anything could happen if it fails what then?

imo all good for Johnson

pass: i got brexit
fail: see i was blocked vote tory to get Brexit

FrancieBrady

The EU building tonight. If it isn't a photoshop it's kind of amazing.

lawred2

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Not constructive to the thread but the replies to this have me in tears.

.

The responses are all quite well spirited as it goes.. it's quite funny without crossing into abusing auld Jamie.. much as it might be warranted

54and56

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I still can't understand the joy and celebrations on RTE as if world peace has just been announced, there's not a chance in hell this will get voted in on Saturday.

If you really believe that you should double your savings by putting it all on Paddy Power at 5/6 for it not passing on Saturday.

Junkyard Tom

Bambi wrote: »

The circumstances in which Norn Irish MLAs will vote for a hard border is really simple. A simple majority of them want it.

That's not circumstances that's a conclusion without even trying to hint at anything resembling the circumstances that might lead to it. Have you any notion of what circumstances might lead to a majority vote for a hard border that everyone except complete headbangers want?

yesterday it was impossible for Stormont to impose a hard border and today it is

Stormont can't impose shit. Westminster would have to impose it and deal with international problems if they even attempted to.

This is a you-can-have-any-colour-you-want-as-long-as-it's-black choice.

Dyr

sondagefaux wrote: »

In theory Stormont can opt-out. In practice, it won't.

If you know for a certainty that the Northern Ireland Assembly will never vote to opt-out of Northern Ireland following EU rules on product standards, customs and VAT, why wouldn't you allow the Assembly to have a say on the matter?

It's a theoretical concession that means nothing in practice.

You can't know anything of the sort to a certainty, you're being ridiculous.

As before, be honest. You would have said the same about Trump, Johnson, Corbyn, Brexit etc. There goes another rubber tree plant, to quote a song on the topic

ancapailldorcha

Having had time to think about it, I'm now a lot less worried. I honestly can't see this getting through Parliament on Saturday. Johnson just doesn't have the numbers. The Lib Dems are already against it as is Caroline Lucas. Corbyn has whipped against it, the Tory rebels will vote it down and now the DUP will reject it as anyone who knows anything about Ulster Unionism would expect them to. I think they'll take a portion of the ERG with them as well as Kate Hoey and maybe a few wavering Tories.

I think if we are in the EU this time next month then Brexit is dead. We leave at Hallowe'en or we don't at all.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

You can't know anything of the sort to a certainty, you're being ridiculous.

As before, be honest. You would have said the same about Trump, Johnson, Corbyn, Brexit etc. There goes another rubber tree plant, to quote a song on the topic

So are you saying that we should never have compromised ever? Even if it looked like not compromising a tiny bit was going to cause the Hard Border that you are desparate to avoid?

Not sure what you are advocating here Bambi. 'Never Never Never' is the road to nowhere on this island.

Strazdas

Fascinating to hear Bridgen tell Prime Time he's sick of Brexit and will vote for the deal without a second thought

lola85

3 years we finally got a deal they said on prime time??

May had a deal too???

Dyr

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Stormont can't impose shit. Westminster would have to impose it and deal with international problems if they even attempted to.

This is a you-can-have-any-colour-you-want-as-long-as-it's-black choice.

You're denying reality, read the bloody text. Once its agreed there's no recourse for international problems based on Stormont availing of the terms of the agreement. The only viable argument is that they definitely won't because we have a crystal ball that's sees 8 years into the future or some such.

sondagefaux

Bambi wrote: »

You can't know anything of the sort to a certainty, you're being ridiculous.

As before, be honest. You would have said the same about Trump, Johnson, Corbyn, Brexit etc. There goes another rubber tree plant, to quote a song on the topic

If this deal goes through and if the UK leaves the EU, and if the Withdrawal Agreement's provisions on a transitional period until the end of 2020 (which can be extended until 2021 under the provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement) are enacted, the earliest possible year a vote could be held is 2025.

What do you see in the demographics of Northern Ireland that might lead to a simple majority of MLAs voting in favour of opting-out of these arrangements in 2025?

What do you see in the demographics of Northern Ireland that might lead to a simple majority of MLAs voting in favour of opting-out of these arrangements in 2029?

Atlantic Dawn

54and56 wrote: »

If you really believe that you should double your savings by putting it all on Paddy Power at 5/6 for it not passing on Saturday.

5/6 is until year end, I'd only be interested in winnings on saturday, it would be easy money.

Rjd2

54and56 wrote: »

If you really believe that you should double your savings by putting it all on Paddy Power at 5/6 for it not passing on Saturday.

Its 5/6 for a withdrawal bill not to pass in the whole of 2019 though not just this vote.

The price for the UK to still be in the EU come 1st November is 4/9 and the price for them to leave before then which is only possible through the vote on Saturday is 6/4.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/uk-to-leave-the-eu-by-the-31st-october-2019?selectionName=yes

Westernyelp

i was hoping for remain and wasn't sure if I wanted this deal to pass until I saw the reaction of Foster, Dodds and Bryson et al. it's hard not to to hope for a deal after that.
it's almost surreal seeing the Tories, ERG etc basically waving goodbye to Northern Ireland in their various talking head interviews.

Having said that I can't see it passing in the HOC

Junkyard Tom

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Brexit is dead.

I think that the main pro-Brexit players in the British Government feel that way too and that's why they've rushed this 'deal' through. The polls are showing a majority of the British public turning against any Brexit.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

This deal puts the border in the Irish Sea. That's what the objective of the Irish government has been all along. So I think it should be looked at in a positive light.

But having Stormant vote every 4 years in perpetuity is not a good arrangement. Especially in the context of there not being any talk of a border poll.

Northern Ireland having a special status in the long term is the best way for the place to have peace and prosperity.


The chances of the Assembly voting for a hard border is a possibility. But it seems very unlikely. And if it goes to a Northern Ireland referendum, I really can't see there being 51% in favour.

Imreoir2

Bambi wrote: »

For the last three years it was the risk their entire strategy was built around accepting. That if the Brits caused a hard border then so be it but they would not compromise on the backstop. You may have noticed Leo being quite vocal on the subject during the summer

That tune changed yesterday. Personally I think because EU got the compromises they wanted in other areas.

At least you admit the tune changed, you've some strange sorts of reverse brexiteers around here trying to deny the reality that:

The deal will give the Stormont Assembly the ability to impose a hard border by leaving the arrangement.

The Irish Government rolled back on their red line

Weird carry on tbh

Dublin clearly felt that the compromise was acceptable based on the significantly reduced risk of a hard border ever happening as a result of this arangement. I am inclined to agree with that decision.

Holding hard to a red line when you are largely getting what you want anyway is the politics of a fool.

ancapailldorcha

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I think that the main pro-Brexit players in the British Government feel that way too and that's why they've rushed this 'deal' through. The polls are showing a majority of the British public turning against any Brexit.

Pretty much. I was getting stressed earlier about this but as time went on the Parliamentary arithmetic is just so stacked against Johnson that the question is now whether or not we need to involve the courts to request the inevitable extension on the 19th.

sondagefaux

lola85 wrote: »

3 years we finally got a deal they said on prime time??

May had a deal too???

Yeah, I think everyone's being a bit premature.

May and the other EU27 leaders agreed a deal after tough negotiations.

The DUP opposed it, and the UK parliament voted against ratifying it.

Johnson and the other EU27 leaders agreed a deal after tough negotiations.

The DUP oppose it, and the UK parliament may vote against ratifying it.

If it doesn't get the support of a majority of MPs on Saturday, the Benn Act kicks in, Johnson is obliged to request an Article 50 extension, the EU27 aren't going to refuse it, and there's going to be either a second referendum before a general election (with Remain vs Johnson's Deal as a potential choice) or a general election which could lead to a second referendum or a No Deal Brexit or an acceptance of this proposed deal.

It's only about 10 months since all the hype about the deal that May and the EU27 negotiated.

We all know what happened to that.

Imreoir2

Bambi wrote: »

Demographics has been delivering a united ireland for two decades now and its as far away as ever.

It most certainlty is not, recent polls have put support for a UI well ahead of where it has been in the past.