Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
Please use the report function to alert the mods when necessary

J Mysterio

Lets see how many Prime Ministers last this incarnation.

looksee

100,000 posts? Is it? I wonder if there is anywhere in the UK a moderated, civil, on topic discussion about Brexit on any platform?

Frank Bullitt

11 threads!

Should we start a bet on how many we will reach before they actually leave?

VinLieger

When this is all over id love to see a breakdown of all the threads stats, most posts, how long each thread lasted etc...

Strazdas

looksee wrote: »

100,000 posts? Is it? I wonder if there is anywhere in the UK a moderated, civil, on topic discussion about Brexit on any platform?

Very difficult to find one. It must be the most polarising and divisive issue in British political history. It's almost like a civil war but without the fighting.

Jizique

VinLieger wrote: »

When this is all over id love to see a breakdown of all the threads stats, most posts, how long each thread lasted etc...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/20/iain-duncan-smith-eu-leaders-panicking-desperate-no-deal-brexit/

Well, IDS is pretty confident

A Dub in Glasgo

Brexiters are still convinced there will be a climbdown from the EU - it is quite unreal

ilovesmybrick

VinLieger wrote: »

When this is all over id love to see a breakdown of all the threads stats, most posts, how long each thread lasted etc...

What I find remarkable is that the first thread lasted a year and a half, and there were nine in two and a half years. Considering the potential fallout in the coming six weeks will this iteration even see out the year?

Leroy42

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Brexiters are still convinced there will be a climbdown from the EU - it is quite unreal

TBF, what else are they supposed to say? There is no point accepting the reality, that would spell the end of Brexit. Far better to continue with the hope, in the hop that something, anything, will turn up.

They are fighting for the ideology, their party and even their own careers. That is quite the incentive to keep up the facade. But look at how many of them voted for TM WA and the 3rd time. They know very well what the reality is.

J Mysterio

Strazdas wrote: »

Very difficult to find one. It must be the most polarising and divisive issue in British political history. It's almost like a civil war but without the fighting.

That is basically exactly what it is.
If the UK don't play their cards right, the fighting might come in earnest still, as mad as that would be.

Panrich

J Mysterio wrote: »

That is basically exactly what it is.
If the UK don't play their cards right, the fighting might come in earnest still, as mad as that would be.

When you see people with diabetes willing to give up their life-saving medicine just to see Brexit happen, then any outcome is possible if the 'prize' is snatched away from them.

When you also have irresponsible politicians and rabble-rousing headlines in the media to add in to the mix, the ingredients for social unrest are all in place.

looksee

Its interesting to read the spin that the UK media is putting on the various events and statements about Brexit. The idea that the EU is in a complete tizzy about the UK leaving. They leave you wanting to say but...but...no!

eire4

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Brexiters are still convinced there will be a climbdown from the EU - it is quite unreal

I know at this point I should have long since stopped being dumb founded at London's level of delusion when it comes to the EU just caving at the last minute but I just stil cannot quite believe it.
At this point I think though we will end up with a deal done before October 31st and it will be the DUP getting thrown under the bus and the border being made the Irish sea. Now whether that will get enough votes in London I have no idea but I think that is where this is going right now.

From the previous thread:

And yes it is scary how easy it has been to convince these people that leaving the EU is the number one priority in their lives, when they couldn't have cared less 5 years ago, beyond the occasional conversation down the pub. They have absolutely no comprehension of how brainwashed they sound. There is no other word for it.

It's easy to forget that 5 years ago, there was no hope of ever leaving the EU in the minds of many, that's why they didn't think about it.
Now they've been given hope, a referendum and a favorable result that shows a majority (of voters) want to leave, now they want it to happen.


That is not "brainwashing", it's a suppressed aspiration that now has a real possibility of happening. So it's foremost in their minds and they want it done.

alchemist33

Strazdas wrote: »

Very difficult to find one. It must be the most polarising and divisive issue in British political history. It's almost like a civil war but without the fighting.

There's a r/brexit on reddit which is fairly civil, although most there are against it.

I'm a member of a UK- based forum for my profession which is normally a spurce of good intelligent debate. But on Brexit it's as bad as some forums here; just full of anger and stupidity. It's actually impossible to have a conversation there as nobody responds to the post they quoted, but instead roll out a barrel of whataboutery and soundbites.

alchemist33

[Deleted User] wrote: »

From the previous thread:



It's easy to forget that 5 years ago, there was no hope of ever leaving the EU in the minds of many, that's why they didn't think about it.
Now they've been given hope, a referendum and a favorable result that shows a majority (of voters) want to leave, now they want it to happen.


That is not "brainwashing", it's a suppressed aspiration that now has a real possibility of happening. So it's foremost in their minds and they want it done.

But I think it would be fair to say a major reason for that suppressed aspiration has been dacades of "the EU are banning bendy bananas" stories from the right wing press. At some level, all those negative stories have built the notion that the EU has been having a massive negative effect on peoples lives.

alchemist33

alchemist33 wrote: »

But I think it would be fair to say a major reason for that suppressed aspiration has been dacades of "the EU are banning bendy bananas" stories from the right wing press. At some level, all those negative stories have built the notion that the EU has been having a massive negative effect on peoples lives.

Most people were in favour of the EEC as it was basically a free trade alliance, but disliked external interference in many areas of social and political activity. The referendum in 1976 voted to remain in the EEC.


The EEC morphing into a much closer federal union which prevented individual deals with other countries really pissed off some of the elite in the UK.


So it's easy to see where the money is coming from.

Tell me how

Somebody posted a link to Simon Coveney on the Today radio programme on BBC earlier today (thank you to the poster).

As always, he was informed, consistent and forthright. Really excellent work by him. By the end of the piece, the host was saying just how far statements about progress are from the reality of what actually needs to happen. Simon will walk in to an EU or UN job after this should he wish to go either route.

In 8 months time, when people are talking about FG being a joke and sure look at the childrens hospital and the homeless issue and swinggate etc, I hope they also recognize the individual qualities some people have. I hate it when people just look at the party (FF, FG, SF, Lab, whoever) and discount everyone within because of a perceived ethos which the party have. I've always respected Micheal Martin similarly (introduced smoking ban which was revolutionary at the time).

serfboard

Panrich wrote: »

When you see people with diabetes willing to give up their life-saving medicine just to see Brexit happen, then any outcome is possible if the 'prize' is snatched away from them.

When you also have irresponsible politicians and rabble-rousing headlines in the media to add in to the mix, the ingredients for social unrest are all in place.

In the past greedy oligarchs could get countries to wage war against other countries to expand their own empires.

This is not possible now, so one way of increasing your wealth is to pay less tax and if it takes a civil war to do it, then so be it.

The people responsible, such as the billionaire tax-exile Barclay Brothers, will be safe from any fallout in their mansions overseas.

serfboard

Tell me how wrote: »

Somebody posted a link to Simon Coveney on the Today radio programme on BBC earlier today (thank you to the poster).

As always, he was informed, consistent and forthright. Really excellent work by him. By the end of the piece, the host was saying just how far statements about progress are from the reality of what actually needs to happen. Simon will walk in to an EU or UN job after this should he wish to go either route.

In 8 months time, when people are talking about FG being a joke and sure look at the childrens hospital and the homeless issue and swinggate etc, I hope they also recognize the individual qualities some people have. I hate it when people just look at the party (FF, FG, SF, Lab, whoever) and discount everyone within because of a perceived ethos which the party have. I've always respected Micheal Martin similarly (introduced smoking ban which was revolutionary at the time).

I heard Lynn Ruane speak at an event earlier this year, and she spoke very highly of Simon Coveney, and she would have no vested interest in doing so. Remember that Simon was also the choice of the majority of FG members.

Quin_Dub

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

What I find remarkable is that the first thread lasted a year and a half, and there were nine in two and a half years. Considering the potential fallout in the coming six weeks will this iteration even see out the year?

Given that the 10th edition took a grand total of 35 days to hit the 10k limit (The 1st post was on the 16th of August), I think the challenge will be to see if this one manages to last the rest of September!!!

cml387

Deleted User wrote: »

From the previous thread:



It's easy to forget that 5 years ago, there was no hope of ever leaving the EU in the minds of many, that's why they didn't think about it.
Now they've been given hope, a referendum and a favorable result that shows a majority (of voters) want to leave, now they want it to happen.


That is not "brainwashing", it's a suppressed aspiration that now has a real possibility of happening. So it's foremost in their minds and they want it done.

I disagree to an extent. Membership of the EU was never a major bone of contention in the British population as a whole before 2016. Many other things including the NHS,crime, the economy and lets face it-emigration were the big issues.
Sure they probably grumbled about the EU, like the weather.
Only when the referendum was called did it become an issue and then the referendum partly became a vote on the government and austerity.

We've had the same thing here where referendums issues got lost because the government was unpopular.

The best equivalent here of having a referendum you didn't need was the abortion vote in 1983, and didn't that go well.

Tippex

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Given that the 10th edition took a grand total of 35 days to hit the 10k limit (The 1st post was on the 16th of August), I think the challenge will be to see if this one manages to last the rest of September!!!

the only reason the last thread ramped up so quickly was the shenanigans going on in the HOC there is no way this thread will be done by the end of September.

cml387

Incidentally, those of you who dismiss Katya Adler should hear her pour a lot of cold water over the "imminent breakthrough" nonsense that arose partly out of Jean Claude Junkers interview with Sky.
She pointed out that all he said was in essence just a restatement of long held EU principles.
This was on Today this morning.

Tell me how

cml387 wrote: »

Incidentally, those of you who dismiss Katya Adler should hear her pour a lot of cold water over the "imminent breakthrough" nonsense that arose partly out of Jean Claude Junkers interview with Sky.
She pointed out that all he said was in essence just a restatement of long held EU principles.
This was on Today this morning.

It's very interesting to hear that as I found on yesterdays edition of Brexitcast that she was much less gung ho than she normally has been about EU caving to UK desires. I noticed it a couple of times during the show.

Tell me how

Tippex wrote: »

the only reason the last thread ramped up so quickly was the shenanigans going on in the HOC there is no way this thread will be done by the end of September.

I think the poster was being facetious.
This thread could well see the end of October depending on how things progress and whether or not there is any drama associated with the next moves.

Russman

This may be a trite comment given we’ve had 10 threads about it, but when you take a step back and look at it, the very idea of a member of an organisation deciding to leave and complaining that the terms of its leaving are not good enough and demanding better terms, is just off the wall bonkers.

Tell me how

Russman wrote: »

This may be a trite comment given we’ve had 10 threads about it, but when you take a step back and look at it, the very idea of a member of an organisation deciding to leave and complaining that the terms of its leaving are not good enough and demanding better terms, is just off the wall bonkers.

The manner in which the EU was complained about for being undemocratic and then parliament in the UK being prorogued to avoid debate is definitely something which if you had been told at the outset that it was going to happen I don't think anyone would have believed it.

Or (possibly) 2 general elections being held between the time A50 was invoked and they actually leave, 3 being held on the negotiated WA, votes of No confidence from within both the party and the HoC on the PM being held while all the time, any suggestion that there be a second referendum being shouted down as unacceptable would have been equally unbelievable at the outset.

sdanseo

looksee wrote: »

100,000 posts? Is it? I wonder if there is anywhere in the UK a moderated, civil, on topic discussion about Brexit on any platform?

There is meant to be one, but Boris prorogued it. Leaving aside the fact that's it's been more of a circus for the last year or so than a discussion.

Mech1

Just found this in After hours.
https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1175049001126768647

Frank Bullitt

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-leaked-document-says-uk-proposal-fails-to-solve-backstop-issues-11815201

A leaked European Commission memo has said the UK government's latest draft proposals for a new Brexit deal "fall short of satisfying all the objectives of the Irish backstop".

Well, it's Groundhog Day...again.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1175035971068452864

Amusing tbf.

Thornberry is a sharp politician, but comparing the Lib Dems Brexit policy to the Taliban is lazy and just fuels more animosity in what a pretty angry political climate.

Enzokk

This is Tony Connelly on the UK proposals and some of the EU responses.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099582990159879?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099585875890182?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099588585373704?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099591584309249?s=20

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099594256068615?s=20

When you see the words being used as insane and backwards steps, its not great. His last tweet seems to spell it out,

"One member state said the UK had gone a few steps forward by proposing an all-Ireland SPS zone, but had now gone ten steps back."

lawred2

time to break off talks now really - just getting insulting at this stage

cml387

Enough for Britain to say that"We did our best but the EU were totally intransigent"

If Tony Connolly's tweets are correct (and let's face it he has seldom been wrong before) it's game over.

beggars_bush

lawred2 wrote: »

time to break off talks now really - just getting insulting at this stage

That's exactly what Johnson and co want

BluePlanet

cml387 wrote: »

Enough for Britain to say that"We did our best but the EU were totally intransigent"

If Tony Connolly's tweets are correct (and let's face it he has seldom been wrong before) it's game over.

I think so too.
Let the us and the EU deal with the problem and hassle on the border and then use the resulting chaos to get better trade deal.
They'll say: jeez look at all the trouble on that border, if you want us to help sort this then give us X, Y and Z.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1175099585875890182

Spot the DUP nit picking nonsense here.

Infini

beggars_bush wrote: »

That's exactly what Johnson and co want

Better way of doing things would be to basically come out and say that the UK despite all warnings refuses to bring foward workable and realistic solutions and that all states should prepare for an inevitable hard brexit unless theres a significant change of stance or goverment in the UK.

Also announce what tariffs etc will apply as of 1/11/19 and if necessary state any additional costs will be levied on UK imports until such a time as HMG agrees a realistic trade deal including all terms of the previously agreed WA that they reneged on.

ilovesmybrick

Tell me how wrote:

In 8 months time, when people are talking about FG being a joke and sure look at the childrens hospital and the homeless issue and swinggate etc, I hope they also recognize the individual qualities some people have. I hate it when people just look at the party (FF, FG, SF, Lab, whoever) and discount everyone within because of a perceived ethos which the party have. I've always respected Micheal Martin similarly (introduced smoking ban which was revolutionary at the time).

I'd be pretty far from a FG voter, and really don't see myself changing any time soon. However, Coveney will make an excellent Taoiseach when his day comes.

Kermit.de.frog

My own view at this point is the EU should have come out on receipt of this absolute nonsense and called a complete halt to all negotiations very publicly with a press conference.

No Deal won't last long, before UK needs to be back at the table. We can deal with it in a few months.

woohoo!!!

The EU is doing fine. I came across a tweet earlier that in a negotiation where one side increasingly doesn't trust the other side, they demand precise, legally binding proposals or precisely the opposite of what Johnson is doing. Other trading blocs and countries are already pricing this untrustworthiness in. Whilst they may succeed domestically in the short term, the cost/price is going to be horrific.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1175125903518687233

I'm not sure Labour understand the rules of the game. Anytime it seems they've an open goal they go and shoot themselves in the foot

ltd440

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1175125903518687233

I'm not sure Labour understand the rules of the game. Anytime it seems they've an open goal they go and shoot themselves in the foot

Holy crap, I mean no one should be surprised by the craziness of the Labour Party by now, but starting a split when entering possibly the most important election in 70 years???.
Boris can't believe his luck I'd say

Infini

ltd440 wrote: »

Holy crap, I mean no one should be surprised by the craziness of the Labour Party by now, but starting a split when entering possibly the most important election in 70 years???.
Boris can't believe his luck I'd say

Whos pushing to abolish the deputy position though? Is it Jeremy because it really isnt the time for this carryon.

A Shropshire Lad

There will be a Backstop, it just wont be called a 'Backstop' so Boris can say he got rid of the Backstop!

DUP will have to accept some different status for NI than the rest of UK. More or less in the customs union, more or less in the single market.

The other point about that would be that Scotland would look at this 'special status' for NI and say, hang on, we want that too!

Christmas for the SNP

CelticRambler

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I came across a tweet earlier that in a negotiation where one side increasingly doesn't trust the other side, they demand precise, legally binding proposals or precisely the opposite of what Johnson is doing. Other trading blocs and countries are already pricing this untrustworthiness in.

This point is yet another one lost on the Brexiters: for all their petty attempts at spinning EU "cave ins" and "backing down" and "poor Boris, humiliated" for the domestic audience, they've forgotten that all their future trading partners are watching. Attending trade negotiations with a bunch of papers saying "you can look, but you can't touch" is not just pissing off the EU, it's exposing the undeniable weakness of the British position, and the amateurishness of their team, to everyone else who might want to trade with them.

No amount of oomph can make up for an unrelenting series of misjudgements.

Mr.Nice Guy

Good thread this evening by Peter Foster which I think gets to the heart of the Johnson/Cummings strategy.

The reason the EU is making warm noises is not because they like UK 'non-papers', but because they can see Johnson is utterly cornered and hope he might 'pivot' to a manageable deal.

But in truth, I think there is first a much bigger question to address. Why would Boris Johnson risk it?

Because step back from the minutiae of this 'deal' issue and what is clear is that we are in a General Election campaign.

This is not a government, its a campaign machine.

So if we view Johnson's decision post Party Conference through that political prism, then what?

The EU's rejected slice n dice and he can:

a) pivot to a deal, some version of NI-only, or maybe extended transition etc and in doing so take a HUGE risk.

I don't know about you, but I don't trust those Labour votes materialising.

And if they don't, then Boris Johnson goes into the next election have BOTH pivoted towards a compromise his Brexit base are gonna hate AND failed to meet his Oct 31 'do or die' deadline. That's a double whammy.

Would it not be more politically rationale not to muddy the waters?

To stand rock solid on the backstop and keep burnishing those hard-Brexit, bucaneering Britain credentials and enter the inevitable election campaign unsullied by compromise?

In short, there is a notional prize of doing a deal and getting Brexit over the line by October 31 before the election is appealing...but that's probably only possible with a deal that enrages the base and anyway has a high chance of failing in London.

Seems to me that Steve Barclay Madrid speech fits that pattern...keep tilting at the notional deal, and then - come October 17 Council - you can call the EU all manner of names as you prepare to hit the campaign trail demanding a majority to get the job done.

I guess all will be revealed after Party Conference and at the point when the 'negotiations' hit the customs buffer...

To pivot, or not to pivot, that is the question...Parliament has already nobbled you once, why give them the satisfaction of doing so again?

I hear the Letwin plan of using an extension to create a 'zombie' government while Parliament passes a Withdrawal Bill subject to a referendum, but that feels a stretch to me.

And once the extension is forced, will Labour really be able to shirk an election?

At that point Johnson valiantly (after Court fights etc) loses the battle but seeks to rally Brexit forces to his standard to win the war.

All of which makes me weary - and sceptical about talk of a deal; greater forces are at play here than the viability of customs technologies.

In short: Johnson is in a corner. My gut says he feints and counters, rather than sues for peace.

I think this is the likely scenario. I can't see Johnson being seen to 'cave' ahead of the party's conference, and if there is an extension which is followed by an election then he is not going to want to be portrayed as soft with Farage breathing down his neck.

From what Tony Connelly has reported tonight, it's obvious the UK aren't putting forward credible alternatives to the backstop.

If we look at Johnson's twin problem of both keeping his party on message and winning over the Brexit voters, doing nothing is the option with the least risk. If he throws the DUP under the bus and signals a shift towards accepting the Withdrawal Agreement, then he not only loses their votes but also has elements of the ERG who have said they don't like the WA - the likes of Francois - on his case, and Farage will accuse him of not delivering a proper Brexit. Why make that gamble now ahead of an election?

If he sits on his hands and does nothing, keeps waffling about the vigour and dynamism of his sham talks, then he can keep giving the Brexit voters the soundbites they want to hear, keep sending the EU nonsense ideas, safe in the knowledge that Westminster will likely put the brakes on the prospect of a No Deal Brexit by compelling an extension.

I can just picture the sham performance he gives about how he is incandescent with rage at being forced to do this, bloomin' furious, apoplectic, how he can't wait for an election to put the surrender merchants to the sword etc.

Joe_ Public

Infini wrote: »

Whos pushing to abolish the deputy position though? Is it Jeremy because it really isnt the time for this carryon.

It's Momentum behind it, which of course has always backed the leader, but i dont think Corbyn is in any way directly behind it. Labour membership majority have been seeking a vote on deputy leadership for some time, so conference is probably their chance to do something about it.

“Labour members overwhelmingly want a deputy leadership election, but our outdated rulebook won’t let it happen. You need 20% of Labour MPs to trigger an election, and they just won’t let the members have a fair and open election.”

trellheim

From what Tony Connelly has reported tonight, it's obvious the UK aren't putting forward credible alternatives to the backstop.

YET . Got conference still to come on the 29th and then after that the fun really begins. Remember this is NOT about the EU its all UK internal politics.

In other news Labour conference starts tomorrow and exactly as expected the infightings started, why does the left at every turn shoot itself in the foot its the same in Ireland