Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Bambi wrote: »

Do you need it explained?

Johnsons red line was consent, that Northern Ireland would get to vote on the continuation of any arrangement every four years

Varadkers red line was that there would be a guarantee that there would be no Hard Border. That was the whole purpose of the Backstop as a failsafe.

Stormont can now vote to impose a hard border.

Who's red line shifted?

Will I break out the whiteboard?

Under what circumstances will Stormont impose a hard border?

FrancieBrady

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Varadkar has conceded it has gone: "The backstop has been replaced with a new solution."

He's putting all his eggs in the Stormont basket case.

In truth they always were.
The Backstop was only effective if people observed protocol and law. It could have been ignored too without any real consequence.

This way, anyone lobbying for leaving the arrangement has ti take responsibility for that. And it is impossible to shirk that responsibility.

joseywhales

I think the important thing here is that the majority of stormont have to opt out, the default is that they stay in as far as I'm aware. It's going to have to be a very compelling case to get the majority of stormont(if it sits), after the next election when we should expect dup to be hammered, to change the status quo and opt out. The cards are stacked in favour of no border Everytime. The problem is that there is seemingly no time limit on this, every four years for 1000 years? You only have to be wrong once.

FrancieBrady

Frosty Perception wrote: »

an interesting caller to LBC.
DUP supporter not happy. he believes that all SF need to do is not show up in Stormont (they're good at that btw) and NI is effectively stuck in the EU. caller actually said he would rather REMAIN than vote for this deal!

Caller mis-informed.

Read the text.

Hurrache

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Varadkar has conceded it has gone: "The backstop has been replaced with a new solution."

He's putting all his eggs in the Stormont basket case.

Yeah, I know the solution formerly known as the backstop is gone, but it's been replaced by an alternative solution, which was always on the cards if one was proposed that was agreeable.

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

Stormont can now vote to impose a hard border.

Who's red line shifted?

Will I break out the whiteboard?

Might be worth it in combination of the details in the proposal.

Mr.Nice Guy

Frosty Perception wrote: »

an interesting caller to LBC.
DUP supporter not happy. he believes that all SF need to do is not show up in Stormont (they're good at that btw) and NI is effectively stuck in the EU. caller actually he would rather REMAIN than vote for this deal!

That was what seemed to be the case based on rumours last night. But the details outlined today appear to prevent that happening, as Tony Connelly reported:

If one side tries believes they don't have the numbers and tries to collapse Stormont there would still be a one-off consent vote, even though no MLAs are normally sitting. The vote would be based on those who turn up, and would again be based on a simple majority

So if for some reason Sinn Fein have decided not to be involved - a dispute over a rights issue for example - then it would boil down to the UK getting consent just from those who turn up. Presumably the unionists would have the numbers without Sinn Fein involvement. Means SF are now integral to the continuing protection of Ireland's all-island customs regime.

The Mary Lou-stop.

irishfeen

People have to remember the DUP's hard line is not shared by the UUP, they wanted to remain in the EU remember. This is very very bad for the DUP and Unionism in NI - they pushed too hard and should have approved May's deal.

We will have an economic United Ireland now in all but name.

Dyr

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Under what circumstances will Stormont impose a hard border?

I note with interest that you cant refute the post you quoted


If the MLAs in the North vote to end the dual custom arrangement what is the default outcome? A hard border.

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

That was what seemed to be the case based on rumours last night. But the details outlined today appear to prevent that happening, as Tony Connelly reported:



So if for some reason Sinn Fein have decided not to be involved - a dispute over a rights issue for example - then it would boil down to the UK getting consent just from those who turn up. Presumably the unionists would have the numbers without Sinn Fein involvement. Means SF are now integral to the continuing protection of Ireland's all-island customs regime.

The Mary Lou-stop.

The motorway between Derry and Belfast definitely won't get DUP backing so.

Professor Moriarty

Bambi wrote: »

I note with interest that you cant refute the post you quoted


If the MLAs in the North vote to end the dual custom arrangement what is the default outcome? A hard border.

Again, under what circumstances will that happen?

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

I note with interest that you cant refute the post you quoted


If the MLAs in the North vote to end the dual custom arrangement what is the default outcome? A hard border.

But you're the one making the claim, it's up to you to back it up, not for others to disprove you until you provide evidence.

The details as to what happens is in the text, or even Connelly's twitter.

Professor Moriarty

irishfeen wrote: »

People have to remember the DUP's hard line is not shared by the UUP, they wanted to remain in the EU remember. This is very very bad for the DUP and Unionism in NI - they pushed too hard and should have approved May's deal.

We will have an economic United Ireland now in all but name.

Funnily enough, latest polling shows that Unionist parties are losing support. As are Nationalist parties but to a lesser extent. Big winners are Alliance - who are pro-Europe.

derrymcorry

There will be a border poll VERY soon.

PokeHerKing

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Caller mis-informed.

Read the text.

Can somebody link the text here please?

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

I note with interest that you cant refute the post you quoted


If the MLAs in the North vote to end the dual custom arrangement what is the default outcome? A hard border.

The default outcome had we refused to relax the backstop (when the UK did, as asked, present an alternative) was a hard border too.

Politics is the art of compromise. We compromised but got different dividends as a result.

Not perfect, but then Brexit never was going to end up perfect.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Funnily enough, latest polling shows that Unionist parties are losing support. As are Nationalist parties but to a lesser extent. Big winners are Alliance - who are pro-Europe.

And who don't like this deal...they think the May one was better.

20silkcut

Frosty Perception wrote: »

he just said he is deflated and it's "a bleak day for LEAVERS"

It’s as hard a brexit as possible what is his problem ??

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And who don't like this deal...they think the May one was better.

Why?

FrancieBrady

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Can somebody link the text here please?

There is no published text yet...just reports on it. Tony COnnelly explains it here.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184870410741014528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1184870410741014528&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058016732%26page%3D162&fbclid=IwAR2lv_Ei34vEyZzunQ2b2laPgcJoWalcT6Lamj2JYbUV4Yi_FRMxmjAY8JY

jimmycrackcorm

golfball37 wrote: »

The Benn act is redundant now with JCJ saying there will be no extension. Its either Boris deal or no deal now. Labour will look ridiculous voting against this if no deal is the consequence. Cummins and Boris have played this thing beautifully from a political strategy POV.

Junker can't say it but the only possible reason to grant an extension is for a referendum to accept deal / no deal and includes remain as an option.

A GE is pointless as a reason in that it's going back to the same.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why?

Naomi Long was on BBC News there, only got her first sentence or two and had to run one of the children to training, but she was saying it was a bad deal for NI...I think from an investment/business angle. She'd probably be right.

irishfeen

You would wonder is the only option for the DUP now to support another referendum vote alongside Labour, SNP and the Lib Dems... they would look completely ridiculous but for them it might be the best way out of this mess.

This deal is probably worse than no deal for them long term.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Naomi Long was on BBC News there, only got her first sentence or two and had to run one of the children to training, but she was saying it was a bad deal for NI...I think from an investment/business angle. She'd probably be right.

Possibly given the uncertainty. But my point is that the unionist vote is on a downward trajectory recently; DUP -7% and UUP -6%. Most of these votes have gone to Alliance which is a Remain party. This trend reinforces the view that a hard border won't be voted in for the foreseeable future. As it stands, Stormont would not vote for a hard border today. If we get to the point where NI does vote for a hard border, the world will be a very different and dangerous place anyway.

Dyr

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Again, under what circumstances will that happen?

No, my friend you don't get to start a sentence with "again" and then rephrase your question

You asked under what circumstances would Stormont be able to impose a hard border. I've answered. You can refute if you like or you can accept that Stormont could impose a hard border if decides to. Do you accept that?

Are you now asking under what circumstances would MLAs take that course of action? Then you've gone from querying the possibility to abstraction about the circumstances in which that course of events might unfold?

It's back to the argument I mentioned pages back that the risk is minimal because "Shur that will never happen". In an era where things that would never happen are now commonplace that is absolute folly

Professor Moriarty

Bambi wrote: »

No, my friend you don't get to start a sentence with "again" and then rephrase your question

You asked under what circumstances would Stormont be able to impose a hard border. I've answered. You can refute if you like or you can accept that Stormont could impose a hard border if decides to. Do you accept that?

Are you now asking under what circumstances would MLAs take that course of action? Then you've gone from querying the possibility to abstraction about the circumstances in which that course of events might unfold?

It's back to the argument I mentioned pages back that the risk is minimal because "Shur that will never happen". In an era where things that would never happen are now commonplace that is absolute folly

Okay pal. Under what circumstances do you think that Stormont will impose a hard border? No problem if you can't think of any.

Professor Moriarty

Frosty Perception wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen says he'll suck it up!

Either the ERG think they have a plan up their sleeve or they think that Brexit will slip out of their grasp if they don't grab this opportunity.

maebee

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So rugby World Cup games Saturday morning along with the brexit vote ? Amazing day of sport on Saturday and one for the ages.

We're heading off on a Med cruise on Saturday. Managed to find an Irish pub in Barcelona that's showing the match, so that's sorted. Won't have wifi on the ship so I'll have to take to the cabin for the day to watch Sky News

There isn't a hope in hell of this passing the HOC on Saturday. Can't see where he'll get the numbers. Then again, you never know what's going to happen with this s***show. Things change by the hour.

Dyr

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Okay pal. Under what circumstances do you think that Stormont will impose a hard border? No problem if you can't think of any.

Before we move on to that do you accept that

A) the Stormont assembly can impose a hard border if it desires?
This is a breach of the Irish Governments red line that no hard border could result from any agreement?

fash

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Okay pal. Under what circumstances do you think that Stormont will impose a hard border? No problem if you can't think of any.

Where there is increased polarization in society and (caused by) economic stagnation caused by political uncertainty, leading to only 1 of 2 possible outcomes to resolve the situation: hard border or United Ireland.