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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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Professor Moriarty

Bambi wrote: »

They won seats in 2017. Unless you're going to defend AfD from accusations of being Nazis.

That said, levity might be your best recourse now. Sticky enough wicket you're on there

Then you should have said AFD not "Nazis". Fifth time:

Under what circumstances will NI vote to impose a hard border?

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

If the vote is won by one vote, it is respected by Parliament. It would be, move on time, for all parties in the HOC. I wouldn't see it being an issue.
The will of Parliament is sovereign.

It would probably be very divisive though. Legally, the UK would indeed leave on Oct 31 but a controversial and contentious WA like this going through by one vote would surely lead to a foul and resentful atmosphere in the country.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

prunudo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

What happens if it ends up all square? Just when you thought you'd seen it all with Brexit.

Kermit.de.frog

prunudo wrote: »

What happens if it ends up all square?

Speaker has casting vote?

GM228

If the Scottish courts hold the WA is unlawful tomorrow (unlikely there would be a judgement until Monday) then any vote on Saturday may be scuppered...

Dyr

joe40 wrote: »

Not really, the decision is been given to the people of northern Ireland through their representatives in storming.
If majority do want to leave the process resulting in hard border it will be their informed choice.
In the same way if a majority want a United Ireland it will be their choice.

The Good Friday agreement was not arrived at by the elected representatives of the the NI assembly, it was an international agreement between two Governments that was explicitly approved by the electorates on both sides of the border. Its whole purpose was that it was arrived at as an All Ireland Agreement not some internal settlement in Ulster.

It would be bad enough if it could now be undone by a simple majority of voters via referendum in the North but now it can be undone by bloody MLAs. No inter govermental agreement, no referendums on either side of the border.

A sizable lump of SF voters do not want a UI but they will vote for a party that does. A sizable lump of DUP voters do not a hard border but they will vote for a party that does.

And in case you haven't noticed elected politicians don't always vote they way that they promise the electorate that they will. We had referendums on this for a reason, we have a bloody constitution for this reason. Some issues are too important to be just rolled into elections

joseywhales

Speakers vote in a tie right?

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

If they could have they would have and yet they refused to even risk it, when doing so would have solved many of their problems Because the consequences of ignoring an agreed backstop would never suit them

With all due respect Francie you were posting a few minutes ago that there is no published text as yet minutes, ago when it was published earlier today, so you haven't even read the thing

Apologies, I didn't know there was a published text, I was going on what Tony Connelly tweeted. (Maybe he was quoting the offficial text)

If it suited the British or a situation evolved, the backstop wouldn't be worth the paper it was written on...everyone knew that.

There was no agreement at the negotiations so that Hard Border was looming with years of both sides blaming the other and a political and social mess.

This way, if a hard border emerges then there will be very specific reasons and clearly responsible people for it and consequences for them.

As a border dweller (smack bang on it, in fact) that is a much much better situation to be in.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Speaker has casting vote?

Speaker will vote with the government according to convention.

joseywhales

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Speaker will vote with the government according to convention.

Bercow will break the convention surely

Professor Moriarty

joseywhales wrote: »

Bercow will break the convention surely

Dunno. He shouldn't IMO.

joseywhales

joseywhales wrote: »

Bercow will break the convention surely

Lol, sorry disregard, Brexit is confusing!

Strazdas

joseywhales wrote: »

Bercow will break the convention surely

Could Johnson bring the deal back for a second vote (as May did)?

Dyr

Jamiekelly wrote: »

To be fair Bambi in one post you claimed that this is being imposed on us without us having a say while a few posts earlier you complained that there is even a vote on it continuing to be imposed. You're building strawmen all over this thread the last hour or so. Sticky wickets and all that...

Do the people of Ireland or the Irish Government get any say in whether this hard border will appear in four years time?

Answer is no

Thats a strawman made of brick, blow harder

joe40

Bambi wrote: »

The Good Friday agreement was not arrived at by the elected representatives of the the NI assembly, it was an international agreement between two Governments that was explicitly approved by the electorates on both sides of the border. Its whole purpose was that it was arrived at as an All Ireland Agreement not some internal settlement in Ulster.

It would be bad enough if it could now be undone by a simple majority of voters via referendum in the North but now it can be undone by bloody MLAs. No inter govermental agreement, no referendums on either side of the border.

A sizable lump of SF voters do not want a UI but they will vote for a party that does. A sizable lump of DUP voters do not a hard border but they will vote for a party that does.

And in case you haven't noticed elected politicians don't always vote they way that they promise the electorate that they will. We had referendums on this for a reason, we have a bloody constitution for this reason. Some issues are too important to be just rolled into elections

I could stand corrected on this but was the vote in the south not just a referendum on amening the Constitution to remove our claim on northern Ireland. The decision to actually accept the agreement was made by the people in the north.
I still think this proposal beats no deal by a long way.

Joe_ Public

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1184894286728499201

How is that a tie when at least 13 votes are unaccounted for? I mean, could happen but that isn't any indication anyway. A tie is a win for government effectively.

GM228

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Speaker will vote with the government according to convention.

Not necessarily, if it's a tie than Bercow would be obliged to vote no as opposed to vote with the Government, important decisions must only be made by the majority so when there is a tie he must reject, based upon the Speaker Denison’s Rule, he confirmed this earlier this year.

brick tamland

Im not sure it matters that much if it fails on saturday. 6 month extension and a election. Cons get a majority as boris is the man who secured a "great" deal. Brexit party become a irrelevance and Labour and Lib Dems split the remain votes. Boris has won his new term imo.

[Deleted User]

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The 4 year thing has one positive, it makes investment less likely to leave Ireland for Northern Ireland, who in their right mind would setup shop there?

Why, NI has effectively become a DMZ between the UK & EU, would be a great place to "repackage" goods to meet the standards of the other side.

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

Do the people of Ireland or the Irish Government get any say in whether this hard border will appear in four years time?

Answer is no

Thats a strawman made of brick, blow harder

We had no say if an WA could not be reached. Hobson's choice.

We compromised and technically gave little away - as evidenced by the DUP reaction.

Headshot

Deleted User wrote: »

Why, NI has effectively become a DMZ between the UK & EU, would be a great place to "repackage" goods to meet the standards of the other side.

Business rely on a stable long term plan, this will counter productive for them.

We constantly hear from businesses in the UK that they cant plan for the future because they don't know what is happening with Brexit, this is similar to what's going to happen in NI

Infini

irishfeen wrote: »

"6. For the purposes of paragraph 5, cross-community support means:

(a) a majority of those Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting,
including a majority of the unionist and nationalist designations present and voting;
or

(b) a weighted majority (60%) of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and
voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations
present and voting"

This actually looks better than it initially sounds it means they need at least 40% of both sides or more than half of both sides in order to affect any change to the arrangements, if one side abstains the vote automatically fails to change anything by the sounds of it. Maybe thats why our good old Dumbass Fleg Party doesnt like it they cant force any change they need to get the other side to agree!

Professor Moriarty

GM228 wrote: »

Not necessarily, if the Government want it passed and it's a tie than Bercow would be obliged to vote no as opposed to vote with the Government, important decisions must only be made by the majority so when there is a tie he must reject. He stated this earlier this year.

The primary principle of convention (Dennison) states that he should vote to ensure further debate.

Jamiekelly

Bambi wrote: »

Do the people of Ireland or the Irish Government get any say in whether this hard border will appear in four years time?

Answer is no

Thats a strawman made of brick, blow harder

The people of NI get a say by electing MLA's that will vote on it, as it should be. The Irish Government have no say in the running of Northern Ireland and under the terms GFA, our constitution had to be amended to release any claim the Irish government had to NI and it's running. We had a vote on that and it passed. Do you not see the contradictions in your many different positions you've espoused over the last few pages? It seems to me that you are being contrarian just for the sake of it.

The real irony of it all is the Irish government DID get a say in whether a hard border will appear in NI. If it didn't compromise at this point in time a hard border would have been enacted in 4 weeks, not 4 years. For someone who seems to be so concerned with a hard border being enacted you appear to be blaming the Irish government and the EU for compromising in the first place. Which is it that you care more about? Because judging by your replies to Moriarity you don't actually seem all that concerned about a border at all, just at the notion that the Brits got a compromise and the Irish government looked weak.

GM228

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The primary principle of convention (Dennison) states that he should vote to ensure further debate.

It also states when there is an important decision such as policy issues or a major decision (like Brexit for example) that only a majority can decide and so you must vote no.

How does voting yes afford further debate on the WA?

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

Do the people of Ireland or the Irish Government get any say in whether this hard border will appear in four years time?

Answer is no

Thats a strawman made of brick, blow harder

Under what conditions will a hard border be erected in 4 years time ? You've claimed this several times but have yet to say how.

Dyr

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Then you should have said AFD not "Nazis". Fifth time:

Under what circumstances will NI vote to impose a hard border?

Still haven't admitted that you could not have forseen any of those events. So lets just take that you believe you could and now have no credibility.

The circumstances in which Norn Irish MLAs will vote for a hard border is really simple. A simple majority of them want it.
For me is that's as simple as all it takes for a united ireland, a simple majority in a border poll. "It could never happen" bollox to that on both counts, it could.

Current arithmetic in stormont is 40 unionist MPs, 39 nationalist MPs and 11 non aligned but frankly non-aligned is Alliance which is a very soft vote. Can unionists dominate stormont again? It's possible but unlikely in the short term.

All it takes is for the Nationalist vote to be split again (as was very common until recently) or for SF to screw the pooch (which they're currently doing) and you're looking at very dicey arithmetic in the assembly.

It's also possible that the continuation of this arrangement will drift the North towards a UI but yesterday it was impossible for Stormont to impose a hard border and today it is. Nice one

Dyr

Hurrache wrote: »

Under what conditions will a hard border be erected in 4 years time ? You've claimed this several times but have yet to say how.

Read back.

Hurrache

Bambi wrote: »

Read back.

No point because the answer is not there, it's just your assumption.

At least read Connelly's thread on the process.