Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Having had time to think about it, I'm now a lot less worried. I honestly can't see this getting through Parliament on Saturday. Johnson just doesn't have the numbers. The Lib Dems are already against it as is Caroline Lucas. Corbyn has whipped against it, the Tory rebels will vote it down and now the DUP will reject it as anyone who knows anything about Ulster Unionism would expect them to. I think they'll take a portion of the ERG with them as well as Kate Hoey and maybe a few wavering Tories.

I think if we are in the EU this time next month then Brexit is dead. We leave at Hallowe'en or we don't at all.

Is it confirmed that Labour will whip against it? I am assuming they will but haven't heard any announcement to that effect. Corbyn said yesterday they wouldn't, but I have a feeling that will change.

theological

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Having had time to think about it, I'm now a lot less worried. I honestly can't see this getting through Parliament on Saturday. Johnson just doesn't have the numbers. The Lib Dems are already against it as is Caroline Lucas. Corbyn has whipped against it, the Tory rebels will vote it down and now the DUP will reject it as anyone who knows anything about Ulster Unionism would expect them to. I think they'll take a portion of the ERG with them as well as Kate Hoey and maybe a few wavering Tories.

I think if we are in the EU this time next month then Brexit is dead. We leave at Hallowe'en or we don't at all.

Johnson has pulled a blinder in these negotiations. The deal is significantly better than Theresa May's deal. It provides for Northern Ireland's integration into the UK economy with rebates for VAT differences and tariffs. It provides for Northern Ireland's integration into the EU single market and it provides for the UK pursuing its own trade policy.

If he gets it through parliament then that exceeds existing success.

Dyr

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So are you saying that we should never have compromised ever? Even if it looked like not compromising a tiny bit was going to cause the Hard Border that you are desparate to avoid?

Not sure what you are advocating here Bambi. 'Never Never Never' is the road to nowhere on this island.

At least, you're admitting we compromised now


I was desperate to avoid undermining the GFA, so much for that. I thought Leo and everyone else here was too. So much for that


I was okay with a Hard Border due to a hard Brexit because that would have been resolved in quick time, once the brits felt the pinch.


If someone had posted last week that Leo was going to give the NI assembly a perpetual veto on the border arrangement all these posters would havesaid that it would never happen and red lines wont be crossed blah blah

Today they think its a wonderful idea, because Tony Connellys sources say its kosher. Mad stuff altogether. Its like when SF were running around waving flags and claiming victory when the provos finally saw sense and packed it in. Some people are easily sold a yarn

gooch2k9

sondagefaux wrote: »

Yeah, I think everyone's being a bit premature.

May and the other EU27 leaders agreed a deal after tough negotiations.

The DUP opposed it, and the UK parliament voted against ratifying it.

Johnson and the other EU27 leaders agreed a deal after tough negotiations.

The DUP oppose it, and the UK parliament may vote against ratifying it.

If it doesn't get the support of a majority of MPs on Saturday, the Benn Act kicks in, Johnson is obliged to request an Article 50 extension, the EU27 aren't going to refuse it, and there's going to be either a second referendum before a general election (with Remain vs Johnson's Deal as a potential choice) or a general election which could lead to a second referendum or a No Deal Brexit or an acceptance of this proposed deal.

It's only about 10 months since all the hype about the deal that May and the EU27 negotiated.

We all know what happened to that.

The EU27 surely need a plan for the extension at this point; i.e. a commitment for a referendum. Polls are showing an election will result in a hung parliament again.

If they feel they can't move anymore on negotiations and the UK don't commit to a people's vote then what point would the extension have. I put a lot of the blame for this on the opposition. They have had chances to do something and squabbled amongst themselves. Complaining about Brexit being a Tory project and then putting their own parties ahead of the national interest is as bad.

ancapailldorcha

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Is it confirmed that Labour will whip against it? I am assuming they will but haven't heard any announcement to that effect. Corbyn said yesterday they wouldn't, but I have a feeling that will change.

I'm basing it on this:

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1184163018705424387

Not an idea source I know, especially that the New European is reporting pretty much the opposite.

Of course, this might not be accurate and things but Corbyn knows that he can't be party to a Conservative Brexit. It's the same reason that Harold Wilson called the referendum in 1975.

theological wrote: »

If he gets it through parliament then that exceeds existing success.

That's a colossal if though.

liamtech

The View BBC 1 NI - 10:35 - this will be a heck of an episode i imagine so worth a watch -

followed by question time which will be delayed by comparison to bbc 1 london/uk

Dyr

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It most certainlty is not, recent polls have put support for a UI well ahead of where it has been in the past.

And was it a sudden shift in demographics over the last two years that delivered the change? Catholic cloning centres starting pumping out 18 year olds perhaps?

Was it f***k. It was a seismic event in the form of a no deal brexit on the horizon that made people who would not have previously supported a UI start to seriously think it might be the best option for them

You completely missed the point

Beechwoodspark

Laura k talking her usual rubbish on bbc news

theguzman

I think Boris has played this very well, he met Leo and conceded alot of ground, he went to Michel Barnier and the EU and likewise he conceded to forge a deal,yet he conceded the bare minimum to win EU approval but enough to provoke the ire of the DUP.

He has set this up perfectly, he knows it won't pass Parliament, not a hope in hell, Boris tried and failed just like Teresa May but Boris can now blame everything on the DUP whilst himself, Mogg and the hard Brexiters crash out on Oct 31st without a deal. It will either be this deal or no deal, either way they don't care about the DUP and will happily deceive them and can blame them if there is Hard Brexit, and if the deal passes they are happy also because they don't care for the North.

Arlene, Dodd's and co. will oppose the deal because they want a hard brexit also and in the event of a no deal they will claim the moral high-ground and if this deal passes they will still complain and winge because there is nothing they love than a siege mentality. The cheek of Dodds tonight basically threatening a return to violence if they don't get their way and loyalist paramilitaries threatening Limerick above all places the other day.

sliabh 1956

Why is Miriam so worried about the DUP they are not really too concerned about us why must be allways expected to appease them when they could nt give two figs about the Republic. She was te same some weeks ago on a debate about the backstop.

jimmycrackcorm

thecretinhop wrote: »

i am not a fan of EU Varadkar etc but this deal does look decent, or best of bad bunch.
i am bewildered why DUP fighting it...

When the first words a DUP new born is taught to say, its not mama or dadda, but ULSTER SAYS NO!

irishfeen

Peston on ITV saying there is a good chance this will pass on Saturday, ironically it could very well be the rebel Labour MP’s and not the DUP that ensure its passage.

dublinman1990

ITV's Robert Peston has reported on the News at Ten that 19 of 20 rebel Tory conservative MPs will vote for BJ's deal on Saturday.

lola85

sliabh 1956 wrote: »

Why is Miriam so worried about the DUP they are not really too concerned about us why must be allways expected to appease them when they could nt give two figs about the Republic. She was te same some weeks ago on a debate about the backstop.

Her brother is FF.

She will do anything to show Coveney up.

Imreoir2

Bambi wrote: »

I was desperate to avoid undermining the GFA, so much for that. I thought Leo and everyone else here was too. So much for that

I was okay with a Hard Border due to a hard Brexit because that would have been resolved in quick time, once the brits felt the pinch.

These two are not compatible. Your hope that a no-deal Brexit would have been short lived is a much greater risk than the risk that NI will decide they want a hard border at some point in the future, and the former actually does undermine the GFA while we wait to find out if you are right.

Given the choice, I think the Irish government were right to make the choice they made.

Junkyard Tom

Bambi wrote: »

Once its agreed there's no recourse for international problems...

With Britain out of the EU and Ireland still in we could make huge problems for the British. Britain's power relative to Ireland's plummets when they leave the EU.

Stormont is a regional parliament the British would love to disappear. Even if, in the future, Stormont voted to align fully with Britain it does not follow that Britain will reflexively accept it and that there would be no consequences for it to consider.

This is like the package Andy left for Red.



All it is is hope for Unionists - it doesn't guarantee shit.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Is it confirmed that Labour will whip against it? I am assuming they will but haven't heard any announcement to that effect. Corbyn said yesterday they wouldn't, but I have a feeling that will change.

Labour’s Ronnie Campbell on RTE’s Primetime has said he will vote for this deal. How many more I wonder?

Joe_ Public

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm basing it on this:

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1184163018705424387

Not an idea source I know, especially that the New European is reporting pretty much the opposite.

Of course, this might not be accurate and things but Corbyn knows that he can't be party to a Conservative Brexit. It's the same reason that Harold Wilson called the referendum in 1975.



That's a colossal if though.

Dorries obviously just trying to stir things up and I heard that interview with Corbyn suggesting they wouldn't whip. I just think that's wishful thinking in his part, that they'll all row in behind him with no pressure. Think he'll have to listen to his front bench and apply the whip.

Headshot

Wouldnt it be brilliant if the DUP vote against it on Saturday and the Government loose by 9 votes

DUP will be at fault in the eyes of the Tories and carnage will start

theological

Also he added democratic input from the people of Northern Ireland into their own affairs in this deal. The concerns of a backstop without democratic say gone. Johnson has exceeded my expectation by a long way. He did what people in this thread said he couldn't do

Repeating the same arguments that lost 3 years ago won't work. A deal that delivers good proximity to the EU whilst leaving is a compromise.

This deal delivers Brexit. Time to get this done and move on.

ancapailldorcha

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dorries obviously just trying to stir things up and I heard that interview with Corbyn suggesting they wouldn't whip. I just think that's wishful thinking in his part, that they'll all row in behind him with no pressure. Think he'll have to listen to his front bench and apply the whip.

Fair point. Similar from Owen Jones:

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1184935854814437376

bilston

irishfeen wrote: »

Peston on ITV saying there is a good chance this will pass on Saturday, ironically it could very well be the rebel Labour MP’s and not the DUP that ensure its passage.

Lucidtalk on Twitter seem to think it will fall anything between 1 and 16 votes short. Could be genuinely close and impossibly close to call.

Labour must surely know that if it passes and the UK leaves the EU on 31st October then the Johnson led Tories could well win a big majority in an election.

wally1990

I know this might be a stupid question but I need to ask...


All I am hearing is a deal is agreed with the EU

Deal here, deal there and bit of information about whats in the deal on the news.

Where can I actually read the deal or the key information?

All the news articles I'm finding are just high level news with no actually details about the deal and all that is contained with the UK leaving the EU. I'm learning nothing from reading the general news.

I want to be able to read about VAT, Goods and trade, Visa issues , tariffs, and much more.

Is there any actual link to the deal OR a high quality article on the latest deal?

Thanks all.
wally1990 is online now Report Post

FrancieBrady

Bambi wrote: »

At least, you're admitting we compromised now

Don't be at that ****e now Bambi
Post 6522

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=111533921&postcount=6522

I actually state 'We compromised...'

I was desperate to avoid undermining the GFA, so much for that. I thought Leo and everyone else here was too. So much for that


I was okay with a Hard Border due to a hard Brexit because that would have been resolved in quick time, once the brits felt the pinch.


If someone had posted last week that Leo was going to give the NI assembly a perpetual veto on the border arrangement all these posters would havesaid that it would never happen and red lines wont be crossed blah blah

Today they think its a wonderful idea, because Tony Connellys sources say its kosher. Mad stuff altogether. Its like when SF were running around waving flags and claiming victory when the provos finally saw sense and packed it in. Some people are easily sold a yarn

How is the GFA 'compromised' by a 'consent' principle being enshrined in a WA?

Infini

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I think if we are in the EU this time next month then Brexit is dead. We leave at Hallowe'en or we don't at all.

The irony is that Britain wont leave at Halloween unless its a crash out scenario plain and simple, even if the deal is passed as they still have laws and preperations to be done before that can even happen.

In addition the agreement is very unlikely to pass the commons as Boris has not got the votes and the only way this could be passed with enough votes is if it's put to the people vs remain. If he doesn't do that it simply wont get enough votes to cross the line.

I think at this point in time Brexit is basically imploding in on itself as the cold hard grinding reality wears this ignorant ideology down to nothing, the house has enough support to agree to refuse a no deal leave scenario, Boris cannot trigger an election so long as there is no extention in place, Labour wont agree to this unless the option of that vs remain is an option, the UK has been humiliated by these charltains and ultimately even if there's the threat of a looming no deal happening I've no doubt that if that gun of no deal happening was put to parliment it would vote to rescind A50 rather than crash out and if Boris tries to stop it he gets removed and thrown under his own Brexit bus if it comes to it.

One way or another it looks to be coming to an end in the next few weeks.

Imreoir2

theological wrote: »

Also he added democratic input from the people of Northern Ireland into their own affairs in this deal. The concerns of a backstop without democratic say gone. Johnson has exceeded my expectation by a long way. He did what people in this thread said he couldn't do

Repeating the same arguments that lost 3 years ago won't work. A deal that delivers good proximity to the EU whilst leaving is a compromise.

This deal delivers Brexit. Time to get this done and move on.

If he can get it through the HoC then yes, I would say that he has done an amazing job that none of us would have thought possible just a few weeks ago. It's still a big if though.

Dyr

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Dublin clearly felt that the compromise was acceptable based on the significantly reduced risk of a hard border ever happening as a result of this arangement. I am inclined to agree with that decision.

Holding hard to a red line when you are largely getting what you want anyway is the politics of a fool.

I think that's a more reasonable analysis than the epic levels of denial others are putting forth

But I think the reason for it was not based on risk assessment but rather that it was a calculated fudge that kicked the can down the road. Much like Camerons referendum pledge.

If the Irish government had accepted this compromise as a risk worth taking then May would have been offered it. When the book is written on all this I think we'll find it was either that FG got a serious dose of the yips or their arm was twisted.

bilston

Sam Coates on Sky News saying he thinks it's on course for 316 votes which is still 4 votes short.

Rjd2

Deleted User wrote: »

Labour’s Ronnie Campbell on RTE’s Primetime has said he will vote for this deal. How many more I wonder?

He came out early in the day for the deal I think so he will have been factored into a lot of the predictions.

Its pretty tricky to call the numbers but the most optimistic seem to be thinking Boris might get between 310-315 or so. I know its easy to say "only 4 more needed" but those 310 or whatever are not exactly a lock at the moment so then finding another 4 will require immense work from Boris.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1184943159912157210

Joe_ Public

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Labour’s Ronnie Campbell on RTE’s Primetime has said he will vote for this deal. How many more I wonder?

No surprise, he voted against blocking no deal a couple of months back. Probably a hard-core of 4 or 5 like that id say, not sure if there's more than that.