Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

Kermit.de.frog

I'll update in a few minutes if anyone wants a fix before bed

JanuarySnowstor

Some scoff at the idea of a red for Thursday!! Not sure why as practically all models agree on Ireland seeing heavy sleet and snow. I mean what's certain is the ppn will be torrential as the rainfall maps show that. If this were to fall as snow it would lead to widespread disruption where it did....so why does red sound so foolish. Time will tell who's the fool

Monkeynut

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'll update in a few minutes if anyone wants a fix before bed

Giz us another hit, I swear I'll have the money for ya next week.

Meteorite58

Mod Note:

Stay on topic.
Keep it civil .

New posters please read the forum charter.

davidsr20

Hitting refresh waiting on Kermit’s update lol

munsterlegend

davidsr20 wrote: »

Hitting refresh waiting on Kermit’s update lol

A few minutes..it’s been 27 as i type!

Kermit.de.frog

Loose thoughts but I have to hit the hay so!

First off - slight delay in arrival of snow showers in the northwest to first light Tuesday morning (a few hours delay effectively).

This is because a more active frontal system crosses the country on Monday night and associated with that is a wedge of slightly warmer temperatures.

Good news is that there is more precipitation to work with for all of us and while initially rain and sleet on Monday night it should quickly transition to snow through the early hours and I expect a few hours of snow Tuesday morning particular for Leinster and Munster with 2 - 5 cm possible before it clears in to the Irish sea.

Following on hail and snow showers packing in to the west with occassional accumulations here through the day. These pushing ever further east through the afternoon. Persistent accumulations through Tuesday evening in the west and north.

On Tuesday night further heavy hail and snow showers with these occassionally transiting the country. 2 - 5 cm generally, i'd go with 5 - 10 cm in the western and northern parts of the country. Ulster, Connaught and Munster most at risk.

Wednesday is Tuesday - rinse and repeat.

Thursday will bring widespread snow chaos, death and destruction.

Snowbiee21

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Loose thoughts but I have to hit the hay so!

First off - slight delay in arrival of snow showers in the northwest to first light Tuesday morning (a few hours delay effectively).

This is because a more active frontal system crosses the country on Monday night and associated with that is a wedge of slightly warmer temperatures.

Good news is that there is more precipitation to work with for all of us and while initially rain and sleet on Monday night it should quickly transition to snow through the early hours and I expect a few hours of snow Tuesday morning particular for Leinster and Munster with 2 - 5 cm possible before it clears in to the Irish sea.

Following on hail and snow showers packing in to the west with occassional accumulations here through the day. These pushing ever further east through the afternoon. Persistent accumulations through Tuesday evening in the west and north.

On Tuesday night further heavy hail and snow showers with these occassionally transiting the country. 2 - 5 cm generally, i'd go with 5 - 10 cm in the western and northern parts of the country. Ulster, Connaught and Munster most at risk.

Wednesday is Tuesday - rinse and repeat.

Thursday will bring widespread snow chaos, death and destruction.

Niceone , goodnight

kenmc

Woohoo. Roll on Thursday. Can't wait!

Monkeynut

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Thursday will bring widespread snow chaos, death and destruction.

Will the death and destruction be in Dublin? If so what time? I will be having my kids birthday and would like to know in advance.

Thank you.....!!!!!




Side note to anyone not getting me. I am being sarcastic.

Snowbiee21

Monkeynut wrote: »

Will the death and destruction be in Dublin? If so what time? I will be having my kids birthday and would like to know in advance.

Thank you.....!!!!!

I thinks it’s time for bed

sparrowcar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Loose thoughts but I have to hit the hay so!

First off - slight delay in arrival of snow showers in the northwest to first light Tuesday morning (a few hours delay effectively).

This is because a more active frontal system crosses the country on Monday night and associated with that is a wedge of slightly warmer temperatures.

Good news is that there is more precipitation to work with for all of us and while initially rain and sleet on Monday night it should quickly transition to snow through the early hours and I expect a few hours of snow Tuesday morning particular for Leinster and Munster with 2 - 5 cm possible before it clears in to the Irish sea.

Following on hail and snow showers packing in to the west with occassional accumulations here through the day. These pushing ever further east through the afternoon. Persistent accumulations through Tuesday evening in the west and north.

On Tuesday night further heavy hail and snow showers with these occassionally transiting the country. 2 - 5 cm generally, i'd go with 5 - 10 cm in the western and northern parts of the country. Ulster, Connaught and Munster most at risk.

Wednesday is Tuesday - rinse and repeat.

Thursday will bring widespread snow chaos, death and destruction.

I just got a semi....

JanuarySnowstor

Lol and you all thought js was the one ramping beyond control!!

bassy

snow patrol for thursday

kenmc

Wonder if I order this tonight will it be here in time? https://youtu.be/c5pvFTWj08w

munsterlegend

It’s going to be a long week!!

Dakotabigone

bassy wrote: »

snow patrol for thursday

And paw patrol until then.

Donegal Storm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Some scoff at the idea of a red for Thursday!! Not sure why as practically all models agree on Ireland seeing heavy sleet and snow. I mean what's certain is the ppn will be torrential as the rainfall maps show that. If this were to fall as snow it would lead to widespread disruption where it did....so why does red sound so foolish. Time will tell who's the fool

Stop with the dramatics, GFS is showing precipitation rate of around 3 or 4mm/hr at its heaviest for Thursday



Rapidly disintegrating as it moves north where a few hours later its little more than drizzle



ARGEGE shows a bit of drizzle across Munster before the front peters out.

As for Kermits update, is there a single long-sea-fetch NW'erly in recorded history that led to up to 20cm of snow at low levels? From my experience even the more potent ones give a couple of cm of overnight covering with rapid melting between showers in daylight hours

Considering last weeks tame affair gave us around 1cm of snow I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar but more widespread event this week but talk of red warnings and huge snowfalls is nonsense

Little snowy old me

So putting all nonsense and joking aside, it's a damp squib yet again for this coming week? Bit of snow on high ground....

sdanseo

I'm bound by all sorts of weather forum honour codes to thank Kermit's post but I honestly can't see any of Tuesday verifying aside from high ground or the northwest, based on my own interpretation of the models.
Far too much faith being put in GFS precip type charts which are next to useless. This has been shown time and again.

But hey, since we're ramping, the below chart has a nice patch of 15-20mm/3hrs precipitation which if it verified would dump around 30-60cm of snow on Dublin at about rush hour Thursday.

pauldry

Very hard to get snow but origins of these fronts are Greenland ... however the sea around us is 11c. I remember 2010. The first few days of sub zero here were sleet and freezing drizzle.

Think Ulster is getting the snow. The rest of us are watching green grass growing. Maybe a brief outbreak of heavy snow Thursday then thats it

Monkeynut

sdanseo wrote: »

But hey, since we're ramping, the below chart has a nice patch of 15-20mm/3hrs precipitation which if it verified would dump around 30-60cm of snow on Dublin at about rush hour Thursday.

Be careful it may end up on the front of the Sun tomorrow.

Wales and south west England would be getting it very heavy to if that did come off.

It's been said many times especially with this winter, take everything with a pinch of salt.

sdanseo

pauldry wrote: »

Very hard to get snow but origins of these fronts are Greenland ... however the sea around us is 11c. I remember 2010. The first few days of sub zero here were sleet and freezing drizzle.

Think Ulster is getting the snow. The rest of us are watching green grass growing. Maybe a brief outbreak of heavy snow Thursday then thats it

Nail on the head.

Now, in a few decades, when all that melting ice starts modifying the gulf stream... different story. I wonder will any of us be around what that fun begins?

Larbre34

Little snowy old me wrote: »

So putting all nonsense and joking aside, it's a damp squib yet again for this coming week? Bit of snow on high ground....

Yes.

Cold winds, passing mixed precipitation, night frosts, penetrating in any shelter. Possibly road closures in the usual suspect mountain passes due to slushy precip icing over.

You wouldn't put the cat out in it, but it wont be anything to disrupt work or school.

Marengo

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yes.

Cold winds, passing mixed precipitation, night frosts, penetrating in any shelter. Possibly road closures in the usual suspect mountain passes due to slushy precip icing over.

You wouldn't put the cat out in it, but it wont be anything to disrupt work or school.

Well no. It's marginal and regional. Midlands/north Midlands often get snow to lower levels in this scenario with schools closed. Any schools above 250m asl in many parts of the country could face closures.

So these blank 'No' schools won't close statements are silly. Maybe if your home is coastal, south Munster lowlands but not when nothing has been resolved yet for the majority.

Marengo

Little snowy old me wrote: »

So putting all nonsense and joking aside, it's a damp squib yet again for this coming week? Bit of snow on high ground....

Good man Fraxinus. Writing off a marginal situation which hasn't happened yet as a damp squib. At least apply common sense and wait til next Saturday to pass judgement.

Besides if your location is Donegal coast I'm afraid your location is not conducive to snow the vast majority of the time.

nacho libre

Some are ramping too much, then others are downplaying things too much. There will be some settling snow lower down in the north west in the next few days. I wil go with 1- 5 cm. Maybe some mountain tops, like Errigal, will see 10-15 cms by the weekend.

gozunda

kenmc wrote: »

Woohoo. Roll on Thursday. Can't wait!

And Tuesday?

Graces7

pauldry wrote: »

Therel definitely be heavy snow in many locations this week. Tuesday or Thursday. Pigmuck other days.

Was 0c in Collooney on way home. But was raining. Unfortunately my dew point temp reader got smashed by storm anonymous last night so id say they are still positive but snow will be here this week.

Ulster will do well. Other locations dustings. Thursday South has potential

Love it!

Graces7

too dark to see out; after reading of white stuff in Castlebar last night.... bitter, bitter cold though; wearing more layers than an onion and that is just in bed...

At least no boredom here this week... we are ready! west mayo offshore