Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

Kermit.de.frog

Exactly the alignment we want for snow with that low pressure Thursday, Friday on the ECM

Gaoth Laidir

I have to laugh, Kermit. You should work for the Daily Express!

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I have to laugh, Kermit. You should work for the Daily Express!

Wouldn't fit in there. The Daily Express is always wrong.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Wouldn't fit in there. The Daily Express is always wrong.

I think you might be wrong yourself this time, unless you were only talking about Croagh Patrick!

highdef

That's just one of the models. There have been quite a few changes across the various models and I actually see a bit of a downgrade (overall) overnight. There will be more changes and yes, it is likely that some, possibly many areas will experience a decent fall of snow on Thursday and maybe into Friday but for the moment, I would exercise extreme caution regarding promoting this possible event as becoming more than, rather than less likely to happen.

We still have the possible "event" tomorrow and I use the word "event" lightly. I don't think this will amount to very much in any given area. Depending on the northern limit of the main area of the precipitation passing to our south, some southern and south midland areas may see some lying snow, most likely on higher ground. NW midlands and north west could see some accumulations from showers coming in off the Atlantic.

One thing is certain, model watching during this working week is going to be very exciting. I can well imagine the Mods intervening a fair bit as tempers and frustrations reach argumentative levels

Anyway, come Thursday, I very much hope I am wrong and that most of us enjoy a snow day

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think you might be wrong yourself this time, unless you were only talking about Croagh Patrick!

I could be wrong of course. Don't think I am (other than the slight delay to Tuesday morning for the northwest).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DDxe8FvpPI

kenmc

kenmc wrote: »

I just asked Google assistant will it snow this week and it said "yes Dublin will be getting snow tomorrow". Must be true, cos she knows everything.

Bloody flake, she's only gone and changed her mind today. Now she says Dublin won't be getting any snow this week. Might have to replace her with Alexa.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I could be wrong of course. Don't think I am (other than the slight delay to Tuesday morning for the northwest).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DDxe8FvpPI

If it's only entertainment you're after then you get the Oscar alright, but this is a science forum. No doubt some people will see some snow at times, but for the majority of people I think maybe the hyperbole may not play out as planned. We'll see.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

No doubt some people will see some snow at times, but for the majority of people I think maybe the hyperbole may not play out as planned. We'll see.

Why don't you explain why i'm wrong and you're right? No good just saying "you're wrong". Why don't you scientifically explain to us what the problem is with my forecast?


If i'm wrong it's not a problem for me. I have been wrong before.

But i'm comfortable with each and every forecast I make here and I think my own record here gives some credibility to what I am saying.

But go ahead...

munsterlegend

Mt’s forecast isn’t exactly a snow fest!!

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Why don't you explain why i'm wrong and you're right? No good just saying "you're wrong". Why don't you scientifically explain to us what the problem is with my forecast?


If i'm wrong it's not a problem for me. I have been wrong before.

But i'm comfortable with each and every forecast I make here and I think my own record here gives some credibility to what I am saying.

But go ahead...

Just read my previous posts and you'll see. I've explained it several times over the weekend.

Kermit.de.frog

So it's everyone v Kermit again...which is basically every single snowflake that falls in Ireland.

Santy2015

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So it's everyone v Kermit again...which is basically every single snowflake that falls in Ireland.

I believe you Kermit 😎
I wouldn’t say MTs forecast have been terribly accurate recently. Down plays a lot. Basically Saturday night was worse then Ophelia here in my opinion crap flying everywhere.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just read my previous posts and you'll see. I've explained it several times over the weekend.

I'd rather you explained why the parameters are not met for snow in the period of the forecast in a single post. I don't think you have thought this through myself but anyhow please...

Should be easy enough...

highdef

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So it's everyone v Kermit again...which is basically every single snowflake that falls in Ireland.

Without completely side-tracking the thread, from a personal level, I would prefer if you were correct in your forecast.

However, from a scientific and logical POV, I feel that GL has a more reasonable chance of forecasting the most likely scenario. However, as has happened in the past a few times, replying purely on the data being presented to us does not always mean that you will predict the correct forecast. Some human input, experience from past events and even a bit of gut feeling (just a touch!) can give the upper edge in some situation as an addition to what the model data is suggesting.

Another few runs are needed until we can get a firmer idea as to what will happen on Thursday and in fact this is the sort of scenario that can end up being a nowcast situation.

highdef

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd rather you explained why the parameters are not met for snow in the period of the forecast in a single post. I don't think you have thought this through myself but anyhow please...

Should be easy enough...

Gaoth Laider's recent excellent post that has been since stickied (great idea) would most likely explain the reasons for his thinking, at a broad level at least.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057947753

Kermit.de.frog

Santy2015 wrote: »

I believe you Kermit ��
MTs forecast

Thanks!!

I wouldn't worry about it :cool:

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd rather you explained why the parameters are not met for snow in the period of the forecast in a single post. I don't think you have thought this through myself but anyhow please...

Should be easy enough...

I have thought it through and explained it several times, if you care to read it. But I'll spell it out one more time, just for you. No source of deep cold. Greenland airmass modification. Nasskalt, as the Germans would say.

Villain

Met Eireann sounding more bullish than normal in these setups, I think trying to call it either way is brave to be honest.

It is more of a nowcast setup but I am very confident my hiking of mountains Friday and next weekend will be enjoyable

Kermit.de.frog

highdef wrote: »

Gaoth Laider's recent excellent post that has been since stickied (great idea) would most likely explain the reasons for his thinking, at a broad level at least.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057947753

The same post explains the key fault in his assertion for this week. I mentioned it further back in the thread. Let's see if it was noticed...it's only one variable of millions but it's important none the less.

Graces7

Just ventured outside and the cold is breathtaking, literally. Lovely slender half moon and the birds are in fine form.... Mountains veiled in grey cloud..Tide at full and stone-rustling.. what will come will come.

derekon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The same post explains the key fault in his assertion for this week. I mentioned it further back in the thread. Let's see if it was noticed...it's only one variable of millions but it's important none the less.

Just read MT's forecast for the week ahead. Very much a case of nothing to see here, move along. Temps 3-6, sleet with some snow inland and on hills. Against that we just had Gerry on RTE Radio being quite bullish for the week ahead. What to believe?

D

Snowbiee21

derekon wrote: »

Just read MT's forecast for the week ahead. Very much a case of nothing to see here, move along. Temps 3-6, sleet with some snow inland and on hills. Against that we just had Gerry on RTE Radio being quite bullish for the week ahead. What to believe?

D

Time will tell.

irishrover99

Sooo..
That dog from the other day hey.
Anyone still worried about it?.

Kermit.de.frog

Villain wrote: »

I think trying to call it either way is brave to be honest.

munsterlegend

derekon wrote: »

Just read MT's forecast for the week ahead. Very much a case of nothing to see here, move along. Temps 3-6, sleet with some snow inland and on hills. Against that we just had Gerry on RTE Radio being quite bullish for the week ahead. What to believe?

D

What did Gerry say?

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir is Walter Peck

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S4cldkdCjE

KingdomRushed

I've spent a little time this morning trying to determine from the model output whether the country will see widespread snowfall, with it lying in populated low land areas - not just Dublin.

To be honest, it looks very mixed to me. At no point will daytime temperatures be freezing or below. The midlands are most likely to cop lying snow I think, that will last, and perhaps some areas will get quite a lot, places like Tullamore, Longford. I honestly cannot imagine this delivering near the coasts. Stranger things have happened, but marginal has to be the word at the moment.

Billcarson

People can dress it up or down anyway they like but it is a nowcast situation pure and simple as these situations always are. Some could get a nice surprise, others slurry........

munsterlegend

I think a lot depends what time the precipitation falls. The later in the day the better but I fear a sleety mess where I am in Cork but the midlands should get a dusting at least.