Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

vistafinder

la la land

D9Male

Just had a good look at 00z output and 06z GFS, and I fail to see grounds for optimism for anyone below 200m asl on Thursday. In fact, I have been tracking the charts for a few days and it was always odds against that populated areas would see decent accumulated snow later this week.

Zorya

Andrew00 wrote: »

It’s not looking good lads.

What a sh*t winter it’s been

Well, I'm in the NW hills and I am buying in extra spuds :mad: :mad: :mad: So there!!!!

Captain Snow

A Messy Wintery Week. Based on this mornings 06ZZ run.

Meteorite58

Hi Res models AROME and HIRLAM showing widespread wintry showers from early morning crossing the country.

highdef

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Hi Res models AROME and HIRLAM showing widespread wintry showers from early morning crossing the country.

And the latest GFSP is also showing an area of moderate snow moving across the country this coming night, perhaps more like sleet/rain further west. In addition, GFSP is showing more snow over more parts of the country for the event on Thursday (maybe into Friday).

pistolpetes11

vistafinder wrote: »

la la land

MOD NOTE

As the Mother used to say to me "if you have nothing good to say , say nothing at all "

Or in this case if you have nothing constructive to add to the conversation don't post here

RobertKK

The high ground in North Kilkenny gets snow every year including mild winters. We will see lying snow this week.

highdef

RobertKK wrote: »

The high ground in North Kilkenny gets snow every year including mild winters. We will see lying snow this week.

With many of the surrounding hills peaking out at over 300m, the chances are fairy good alright.

Marengo

My home place southe east Laois on KK border peaks at 337m so we almost always get snow like Robert KK.

Elmer Blooker

Andrew00 wrote: »

It’s not looking good lads.

What a sh*t winter it’s been

A vile winter! This cold spell is only a distraction. You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear - still no sign of northern blocking and the NAO going negative.
I thought the SSW might have salvaged this winter but it will probably be March and April when we see northern blocking.

Davaeo09

Marengo wrote: »

My home place southe east Laois on KK border peaks at 337m so we almost always get snow like Robert KK.

Im on the other side of the hills, more towards Tullaroan and 100% agree haha

davidsr20

Any updates since guys

jonny_b

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Im on the other side of the hills, more towards Tullaroan and 100% agree haha

Yeah gonna be jealous looking up at the killeshin hills looking at all the white stuff.

piplip87

Time for the thread to go yellow to match the warnings Hopefully we will get upgrades with every run from here on out

200motels

I'd say here in Waterford city we'll get rain as we're too near the coast.

JCX BXC

Lovely hail shower here in Galway. Nothing really sticking mind!

ffarrell7

The North-West delivers cold air but not very cold air like the East/North East wind.


Some areas of the North-west and North should do quite well out of this but I doubt the East will get much. Rarely does from this direction.
An easterly wind would pulverise the East coast as per usual.


Having said that the western suburbs of Dublin or parts of Meath away from the coast may get some lying snow....we will soon see..

Gaoth Laidir

highdef wrote: »

And the latest GFSP is also showing an area of moderate snow moving across the country this coming night, perhaps more like sleet/rain further west. In addition, GFSP is showing more snow over more parts of the country for the event on Thursday (maybe )]

It was also forecasting widespread snow just 6 hours out on Saturday night too and we just got a nice damp night out of it. Still, why let that get in the way of a good ramp!

Captain Snow

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It was also forecasting widespread snow just 6 hours out on Saturday night too and we just got a nice damp night out of it. Still, why let that get in the way of a good ramp!

It delivered a lot of snow over higher ground, Carlow / Wicklow area.

Snow Garden

Heavy but brief shower of sleet in west Galway. Nice to see some frozen water!
Bring on the cold...

highdef

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It was also forecasting widespread snow just 6 hours out on Saturday night too and we just got a nice damp night out of it. Still, why let that get in the way of a good ramp!

I was only describing what one of the main models is suggesting to happen in less than 24 hours. It's not a ramp at all. My commentary was based on the graphical data presented before me for that particular model. I already said that other (and usually more accurate) models are not suggesting anything to the extent to what the GSFP is showing. I earlier posted the latest GFS and ICON models for the coming days and clearly said that based on the data from them, we don't have much hope in the majority of populated areas.

I didn't post the GFSP charts at the same time as the GFS and ICON ones, simply because they had not rolled out at the time of posting. If I had done, I would have said GFS looks fairly crap, ICON looks terrible, ECM is not great but could be worse and GFSP is looking the best.

So in short, a ramp it was not.

Gaoth Laidir

highdef wrote: »

I was only describing what one of the main models is suggesting to happen in less than 24 hours. It's not a ramp at all. My commentary was based on the graphical data presented before me for that particular model. I already said that other (and usually more accurate) models are not suggesting anything to the extent to what the GSFP is showing. I earlier posted the latest GFS and ICON models for the coming days and clearly said that based on the data from them, we don't have much hope in the majority of populated areas.

I didn't post the GFSP charts at the same time as the GFS and ICON ones, simply because they had not rolled out at the time of posting. If I had done, I would have said GFS looks fairly crap, ICON looks terrible, ECM is not great but could be worse and GFSP is looking the best.

So in short, a ramp it was not.

Sorry, my point was not aimed at you, though I now see how it looks that way. My point was about those GFS precip charts in general, which seem to be the go-to image. All of those meteociel precip charts for all models seem to be a bit dodge, but the GFS in particular. I'm not sure exactly what algorithm determines how an area is deemed "hatch-worthy" or not, but it seems to consistently overdo it. As I said on Saturday, the same model's soundings were saying no to snow, so I just don't get it.

highdef

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Sorry, my point was not aimed at you, though I now see how it looks that way. My point was about those GFS precip charts in general, which seem to be the go-to image. All of those meteociel precip charts for all models seem to be a bit dodge, but the GFS in particular. I'm not sure exactly what algorithm determines how an area is deemed "hatch-worthy" or not, but it seems to consistently overdo it. As I said on Saturday, the same model's soundings were saying no to snow, so I just don't get it.

Fair enough, and no offence taken. I have noticed that the GFSP often seems more eager to suggest snow falling than the GFS does. I don't have that much confidence with regards to the level of snow the GFSP is suggesting but the same time, that's what it's suggesting.

Having said that, there is still quite a difference between most of the models for the next few days and they can't all be right......although it's also possible that they are all wrong.

Time will tell :rolleyes:

odyboody

Captain Snow wrote: »

It delivered a lot of snow over higher ground, Carlow / Wicklow area.

It did??
Traveled from Baltinglass to Rathdrum to go Kayaking on Sunday morning. Only white tops I saw were the rapids in the river.

aisling86

Whoever midland weather channel is here.....you've just shattered my snow hopes 😔 #macroom

cherryghost

The HIRLAM was accurate over the weekend and accurate during last years events. The next 48 hours in HIRLAM shows sleet for many, snow for some (Mid - North/West) at lower levels tonight/tomorrow morning. And West/SW to get their action later tomorrow.

Rougies

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Sorry, my point was not aimed at you, though I now see how it looks that way. My point was about those GFS precip charts in general, which seem to be the go-to image. All of those meteociel precip charts for all models seem to be a bit dodge, but the GFS in particular. I'm not sure exactly what algorithm determines how an area is deemed "hatch-worthy" or not, but it seems to consistently overdo it. As I said on Saturday, the same model's soundings were saying no to snow, so I just don't get it.

In fairness the hatching is labelled as "risk of snow" (risque de neige) rather than "snow" and is supposed to be used as a general guide to where snow might fall.


Here's a google translation from their FAQ page which to me implies that the white hatched areas should be analysed further using the other relevant charts for an accurate snow forecast.

http://www.meteociel.fr/FAQ-modeles.php

Precipitation map: Sometimes the map can be hatched with white lines, indicating that precipitation can be in the form of snow. Use the legend at the bottom of the map. Tip: The precipitation seen by the models are part of the "final" parameters, any self-respecting forecaster can not bring himself to support his prediction on it. We must therefore first consider a study of parameters directly related to dynamics such as 1.5PVU map and absolute vortex presented both lower. We will add that this version of GFS presents a mesh of 50km .... On the scale of a department that represents a lot and the slightest shift may lead to an error in your forecast. Similarly, the hatching in winter on the map, are practical because they target the areas to be analyzed to prevent the risk of snow. But in any case we can not be satisfied with a literal reading of the model, it will then analyze the vertical profile of the air mass to see if indeed precipitation can occur in the form of snow. The LITTLE PLUS: On the occasion of several readings, we noticed that GFS sometimes puts precipitation that will not actually exist ... the question that must be asked each time we consult a map of Precipitations is: Why does the model predict rainfall at this location? The answer is then to be found in the other available maps (for example, one can search for the signature of a frontogenesis, see if the air is potentially unstable). It is up to you to correct the shooting on the intensity of the precipitations according to the synoptic elements put in play. For the snow, nothing better than a good vertical cut, taking care to look where the 0 ° iso trails, knowing that the snow-rain limit can lower much lower depending on the isothermal, usually consider that it is 400m below 0 ° iso. One can sometimes observe an LPN (snow-rain limit) lowering up to 600 / 700m below the iso 0 ° in the case of high instability. Note that we can not apply this near the sea, because it is usually where we find the hot anomalies ... the LPN is then close to the iso 0 °, say 100m below the iso 0 °

Gaoth Laidir

Actually, meteociel themselves have mentioned the problems with the precipitation charts in their Model FAQ page.

http://www.meteociel.fr/FAQ-modeles.php

The hatched area is only an indication of where snow could fall at any level based on the height of the 0°C-isotherm, but "the user must consult other data, e.g. a vertical sounding, to determine the snow risk" and "under no circumstances should the charts be taken literally".

So the charts are not necessarily showing definite snow, only areas that should be further analysed for snow risk. It's as I said, vertical soundings are by far the best tool.

EDIT: Rougies got there first!

Rougies

We should've read that FAQ years ago :pac:

At least now we know what we already kinda knew.