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Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

  • 25-01-2019 11:18pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,816 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Areas most at risk: Connaught, West Munster, Ulster

    Anticipated hazards:
    • Heavy snow showers
    • Low night time temperature
    • Ice


    Possible warning level(s): Yellow, Orange

    Good cross model agreement now for early next week and the warning period starts within 72 hrs. From Monday evening, through Tuesday and most of Wednesday wintry showers turning readily to snow and there is a risk of disruption in the western half of the country. This looks like extending further east in to Leinster (particularly north Leinster) for Tuesday.

    Snow showers more isolated elsewhere. Likely scattered thunderstorms also.

    Night time temperatures between -6 and -1c away from windward coasts of the Atlantic with sharp frosts and ice issues.

    Moderate northwesterly breezes.

    gfseu-0-84.png?18

    gfseu-1-90.png?18

    Precipitation

    90-574UK.GIF?25-18

    Dew Point

    90-101UK.GIF?25-18

    Tuesday temperatures

    90-580UK.GIF?25-18

    Tuesday windchill

    90-290UK.GIF?25-18




    Mod Note : This is a busy thread , stay on topic and be civil. New posters please read the forum charter.

    Off topic posts will be removed.

    The Mod Team will not tolerate deliberate attempts to derail the thread and personal abuse.

    Thank You





«134567100

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭ Manitoban


    Ah it’s great to have you back!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    Hope you and the GFS are right. For me, the uppers just aren't low enough for snow to all levels. All other models showing between -4 and -7 rather than the magic -8.
    ECM in particular keeping -8 a good bit away from us throughout.

    Still think it will be a nowcast between a sloppy mess and very cold, miserable rain.

    Above 250m of course, snow for sure.

    (I really hope I'm wrong)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    I’ll have two tickets please..(just in case I lose one).


  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    And we are off ladies and gentlemen all aboard the slow moving polar coaster that could have it’s rails greased


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,196 ✭✭✭ Zorya


    Mmmmmmm, this would be lovely if it happens.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    I’m hoping the 29th evening stroke night will give us the goodies. Model consensus - on Tuesday.

    Cold that’s what we need for it to snow but more importantly for the snow to stay, that SSW drip feed will deliver a cold one - probably a few milder blips but overall it’ll be cold next week and please please please freezing proper winter the week after.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,993 ✭✭✭ giveitholly


    G'wan kermit!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 56,310 ✭✭✭✭ FrancieBrady


    Any bread?


  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    Any bread?

    Stockpile flour and lard mate


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,077 ✭✭✭ Ninthlife


    Better not let any diggers near Lidl


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  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Hope you and the GFS are right. For me, the uppers just aren't low enough for snow to all levels. All other models showing between -4 and -7 rather than the magic -8.
    ECM in particular keeping -8 a good bit away from us throughout.

    Still think it will be a nowcast between a sloppy mess and very cold, miserable rain.

    Above 250m of course, snow for sure.

    (I really hope I'm wrong)

    I would have to agree with you. I just see the uppers being too marginal for our liking , I hope this changes


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,110 ✭✭✭ thecretinhop


    Ninthlife wrote: »
    Better not let any diggers near Lidl

    even better no scrotes near lidl


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    528 dam line well South of Ireland on Tues, plenty of precipitation feeding in from embedded troughs in a brisk NW'ly

    4djlQYZ.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    North westerly yum 😋


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    528 dam line well South of Ireland on Tues, plenty of precipitation feeding in from embedded troughs in a brisk NW'ly


    Unfortunately 528 doesn’t guarantee snow as per GL’s snow requirements!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    I think the uppers are ok, the thicknesses are nice and low and the dew point is decently low. Troughs could bring heavier precip (snow more likely in heavier showers) if they form. It's not all about the uppers. The ECM brings a pocket of -8 uppers too btw for what it's worth.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    528 dam line well South of Ireland on Tues, plenty of precipitation feeding in from embedded troughs in a brisk NW'ly


    Unfortunately 528 doesn’t guarantee snow as per GL’s snow requirements!!

    That's right but it's a good start .


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,512 ✭✭✭ Pangea


    Westies be like to the Easties
    aZlgS1w.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,816 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    All minimum variable requirements for snow would appear to be comfortably met based on the model guidance at the moment.

    I really wouldn't worry about it. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    I've a strong feeling tonight we are on the cusp!! I expect some pretty decent upgrades by the morning


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  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    January snow storm in the words of another poster “username checks out”


  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    I think the uppers are ok, the thicknesses are nice and low and the dew point is decently low. Troughs could bring heavier precip (snow more likely in heavier showers) if they form. It's not all about the uppers. The ECM brings a pocket of -8 uppers too btw for what it's worth.

    Why you being modest ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    NMB wrote: »
    Why you being modest ?

    Because we've been getting screwed out of cold/snow all winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yay!

    Just turned on phone and see the thread Ive been waiting on all Winter.

    Roll on the slushy mess

    Though prob be freezing n ill be saying how are all these showers missing us


  • Registered Users Posts: 305 ✭✭ NMB


    Few then to many 10 day stepping stones, not screwed - it’s computer models weather and super fun trying to work out what’s happening- lighten up and come up here to the shallows enjoy the surface don’t be so serious


    Forgot to quote artane2000 but I’m replying to him


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,200 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    The pub run GFS charts posted above are, of course, the coldest of the models.

    GFS Sounding for Galway area at the same time (13Z Tuesday). Cold enough for snow.

    sondagegfs_19_6_90_0_1548458603.png

    Now the ARPEGE. Rain.
    sondagearpegefr_202_454_96_0_1548459585.png

    850-1000 thicknesses 1287 versus 1317 dam. A huge difference.

    The WRF and Arome soundings will be available closer to the time, but I wouldn't be so confident of a notable event at low levels.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    I've a strong feeling tonight we are on the cusp!! I expect some pretty decent upgrades by the morning

    Hmm you would have to jinx it wouldn’t you!


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Model evolutions are certainly something to keep an eye on. I'll be looking at Tuesday to see how the situations develops anyway!

    Hopefully something, anything! A nice covering of hail would be a conciliation at this point, the only white I've seen in this country this year has been in the actual kitchen freezer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Meh, looks like a standard north westerly, we had one earlier this week and it wasn't exactly exciting. Looks more of a westerly quadrant this time so more of the country effected I guess..


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,816 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


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