Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

Snowbiee21

Monkeynut wrote: »

Will the death and destruction be in Dublin? If so what time? I will be having my kids birthday and would like to know in advance.

Thank you.....!!!!!

I thinks it’s time for bed

sparrowcar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Loose thoughts but I have to hit the hay so!

First off - slight delay in arrival of snow showers in the northwest to first light Tuesday morning (a few hours delay effectively).

This is because a more active frontal system crosses the country on Monday night and associated with that is a wedge of slightly warmer temperatures.

Good news is that there is more precipitation to work with for all of us and while initially rain and sleet on Monday night it should quickly transition to snow through the early hours and I expect a few hours of snow Tuesday morning particular for Leinster and Munster with 2 - 5 cm possible before it clears in to the Irish sea.

Following on hail and snow showers packing in to the west with occassional accumulations here through the day. These pushing ever further east through the afternoon. Persistent accumulations through Tuesday evening in the west and north.

On Tuesday night further heavy hail and snow showers with these occassionally transiting the country. 2 - 5 cm generally, i'd go with 5 - 10 cm in the western and northern parts of the country. Ulster, Connaught and Munster most at risk.

Wednesday is Tuesday - rinse and repeat.

Thursday will bring widespread snow chaos, death and destruction.

I just got a semi....

JanuarySnowstor

Lol and you all thought js was the one ramping beyond control!!

bassy

snow patrol for thursday

kenmc

Wonder if I order this tonight will it be here in time? https://youtu.be/c5pvFTWj08w

munsterlegend

It’s going to be a long week!!

Dakotabigone

bassy wrote: »

snow patrol for thursday

And paw patrol until then.

Donegal Storm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Some scoff at the idea of a red for Thursday!! Not sure why as practically all models agree on Ireland seeing heavy sleet and snow. I mean what's certain is the ppn will be torrential as the rainfall maps show that. If this were to fall as snow it would lead to widespread disruption where it did....so why does red sound so foolish. Time will tell who's the fool

Stop with the dramatics, GFS is showing precipitation rate of around 3 or 4mm/hr at its heaviest for Thursday



Rapidly disintegrating as it moves north where a few hours later its little more than drizzle



ARGEGE shows a bit of drizzle across Munster before the front peters out.

As for Kermits update, is there a single long-sea-fetch NW'erly in recorded history that led to up to 20cm of snow at low levels? From my experience even the more potent ones give a couple of cm of overnight covering with rapid melting between showers in daylight hours

Considering last weeks tame affair gave us around 1cm of snow I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar but more widespread event this week but talk of red warnings and huge snowfalls is nonsense

Little snowy old me

So putting all nonsense and joking aside, it's a damp squib yet again for this coming week? Bit of snow on high ground....

sdanseo

I'm bound by all sorts of weather forum honour codes to thank Kermit's post but I honestly can't see any of Tuesday verifying aside from high ground or the northwest, based on my own interpretation of the models.
Far too much faith being put in GFS precip type charts which are next to useless. This has been shown time and again.

But hey, since we're ramping, the below chart has a nice patch of 15-20mm/3hrs precipitation which if it verified would dump around 30-60cm of snow on Dublin at about rush hour Thursday.

pauldry

Very hard to get snow but origins of these fronts are Greenland ... however the sea around us is 11c. I remember 2010. The first few days of sub zero here were sleet and freezing drizzle.

Think Ulster is getting the snow. The rest of us are watching green grass growing. Maybe a brief outbreak of heavy snow Thursday then thats it

Monkeynut

sdanseo wrote: »

But hey, since we're ramping, the below chart has a nice patch of 15-20mm/3hrs precipitation which if it verified would dump around 30-60cm of snow on Dublin at about rush hour Thursday.

Be careful it may end up on the front of the Sun tomorrow.

Wales and south west England would be getting it very heavy to if that did come off.

It's been said many times especially with this winter, take everything with a pinch of salt.

sdanseo

pauldry wrote: »

Very hard to get snow but origins of these fronts are Greenland ... however the sea around us is 11c. I remember 2010. The first few days of sub zero here were sleet and freezing drizzle.

Think Ulster is getting the snow. The rest of us are watching green grass growing. Maybe a brief outbreak of heavy snow Thursday then thats it

Nail on the head.

Now, in a few decades, when all that melting ice starts modifying the gulf stream... different story. I wonder will any of us be around what that fun begins?

Larbre34

Little snowy old me wrote: »

So putting all nonsense and joking aside, it's a damp squib yet again for this coming week? Bit of snow on high ground....

Yes.

Cold winds, passing mixed precipitation, night frosts, penetrating in any shelter. Possibly road closures in the usual suspect mountain passes due to slushy precip icing over.

You wouldn't put the cat out in it, but it wont be anything to disrupt work or school.

Marengo

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yes.

Cold winds, passing mixed precipitation, night frosts, penetrating in any shelter. Possibly road closures in the usual suspect mountain passes due to slushy precip icing over.

You wouldn't put the cat out in it, but it wont be anything to disrupt work or school.

Well no. It's marginal and regional. Midlands/north Midlands often get snow to lower levels in this scenario with schools closed. Any schools above 250m asl in many parts of the country could face closures.

So these blank 'No' schools won't close statements are silly. Maybe if your home is coastal, south Munster lowlands but not when nothing has been resolved yet for the majority.

Marengo

Little snowy old me wrote: »

So putting all nonsense and joking aside, it's a damp squib yet again for this coming week? Bit of snow on high ground....

Good man Fraxinus. Writing off a marginal situation which hasn't happened yet as a damp squib. At least apply common sense and wait til next Saturday to pass judgement.

Besides if your location is Donegal coast I'm afraid your location is not conducive to snow the vast majority of the time.

nacho libre

Some are ramping too much, then others are downplaying things too much. There will be some settling snow lower down in the north west in the next few days. I wil go with 1- 5 cm. Maybe some mountain tops, like Errigal, will see 10-15 cms by the weekend.

gozunda

kenmc wrote: »

Woohoo. Roll on Thursday. Can't wait!

And Tuesday?

Graces7

pauldry wrote: »

Therel definitely be heavy snow in many locations this week. Tuesday or Thursday. Pigmuck other days.

Was 0c in Collooney on way home. But was raining. Unfortunately my dew point temp reader got smashed by storm anonymous last night so id say they are still positive but snow will be here this week.

Ulster will do well. Other locations dustings. Thursday South has potential

Love it!

Graces7

too dark to see out; after reading of white stuff in Castlebar last night.... bitter, bitter cold though; wearing more layers than an onion and that is just in bed...

At least no boredom here this week... we are ready! west mayo offshore

Kermit.de.frog

Exactly the alignment we want for snow with that low pressure Thursday, Friday on the ECM

Gaoth Laidir

I have to laugh, Kermit. You should work for the Daily Express!

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I have to laugh, Kermit. You should work for the Daily Express!

Wouldn't fit in there. The Daily Express is always wrong.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Wouldn't fit in there. The Daily Express is always wrong.

I think you might be wrong yourself this time, unless you were only talking about Croagh Patrick!

highdef

That's just one of the models. There have been quite a few changes across the various models and I actually see a bit of a downgrade (overall) overnight. There will be more changes and yes, it is likely that some, possibly many areas will experience a decent fall of snow on Thursday and maybe into Friday but for the moment, I would exercise extreme caution regarding promoting this possible event as becoming more than, rather than less likely to happen.

We still have the possible "event" tomorrow and I use the word "event" lightly. I don't think this will amount to very much in any given area. Depending on the northern limit of the main area of the precipitation passing to our south, some southern and south midland areas may see some lying snow, most likely on higher ground. NW midlands and north west could see some accumulations from showers coming in off the Atlantic.

One thing is certain, model watching during this working week is going to be very exciting. I can well imagine the Mods intervening a fair bit as tempers and frustrations reach argumentative levels

Anyway, come Thursday, I very much hope I am wrong and that most of us enjoy a snow day

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think you might be wrong yourself this time, unless you were only talking about Croagh Patrick!

I could be wrong of course. Don't think I am (other than the slight delay to Tuesday morning for the northwest).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DDxe8FvpPI

kenmc

kenmc wrote: »

I just asked Google assistant will it snow this week and it said "yes Dublin will be getting snow tomorrow". Must be true, cos she knows everything.

Bloody flake, she's only gone and changed her mind today. Now she says Dublin won't be getting any snow this week. Might have to replace her with Alexa.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I could be wrong of course. Don't think I am (other than the slight delay to Tuesday morning for the northwest).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DDxe8FvpPI

If it's only entertainment you're after then you get the Oscar alright, but this is a science forum. No doubt some people will see some snow at times, but for the majority of people I think maybe the hyperbole may not play out as planned. We'll see.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

No doubt some people will see some snow at times, but for the majority of people I think maybe the hyperbole may not play out as planned. We'll see.

Why don't you explain why i'm wrong and you're right? No good just saying "you're wrong". Why don't you scientifically explain to us what the problem is with my forecast?


If i'm wrong it's not a problem for me. I have been wrong before.

But i'm comfortable with each and every forecast I make here and I think my own record here gives some credibility to what I am saying.

But go ahead...

munsterlegend

Mt’s forecast isn’t exactly a snow fest!!

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Why don't you explain why i'm wrong and you're right? No good just saying "you're wrong". Why don't you scientifically explain to us what the problem is with my forecast?


If i'm wrong it's not a problem for me. I have been wrong before.

But i'm comfortable with each and every forecast I make here and I think my own record here gives some credibility to what I am saying.

But go ahead...

Just read my previous posts and you'll see. I've explained it several times over the weekend.

Kermit.de.frog

So it's everyone v Kermit again...which is basically every single snowflake that falls in Ireland.

Santy2015

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So it's everyone v Kermit again...which is basically every single snowflake that falls in Ireland.

I believe you Kermit 😎
I wouldn’t say MTs forecast have been terribly accurate recently. Down plays a lot. Basically Saturday night was worse then Ophelia here in my opinion crap flying everywhere.

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just read my previous posts and you'll see. I've explained it several times over the weekend.

I'd rather you explained why the parameters are not met for snow in the period of the forecast in a single post. I don't think you have thought this through myself but anyhow please...

Should be easy enough...

highdef

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So it's everyone v Kermit again...which is basically every single snowflake that falls in Ireland.

Without completely side-tracking the thread, from a personal level, I would prefer if you were correct in your forecast.

However, from a scientific and logical POV, I feel that GL has a more reasonable chance of forecasting the most likely scenario. However, as has happened in the past a few times, replying purely on the data being presented to us does not always mean that you will predict the correct forecast. Some human input, experience from past events and even a bit of gut feeling (just a touch!) can give the upper edge in some situation as an addition to what the model data is suggesting.

Another few runs are needed until we can get a firmer idea as to what will happen on Thursday and in fact this is the sort of scenario that can end up being a nowcast situation.

highdef

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd rather you explained why the parameters are not met for snow in the period of the forecast in a single post. I don't think you have thought this through myself but anyhow please...

Should be easy enough...

Gaoth Laider's recent excellent post that has been since stickied (great idea) would most likely explain the reasons for his thinking, at a broad level at least.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057947753

Kermit.de.frog

Santy2015 wrote: »

I believe you Kermit ��
MTs forecast

Thanks!!

I wouldn't worry about it :cool:

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd rather you explained why the parameters are not met for snow in the period of the forecast in a single post. I don't think you have thought this through myself but anyhow please...

Should be easy enough...

I have thought it through and explained it several times, if you care to read it. But I'll spell it out one more time, just for you. No source of deep cold. Greenland airmass modification. Nasskalt, as the Germans would say.

Villain

Met Eireann sounding more bullish than normal in these setups, I think trying to call it either way is brave to be honest.

It is more of a nowcast setup but I am very confident my hiking of mountains Friday and next weekend will be enjoyable

Kermit.de.frog

highdef wrote: »

Gaoth Laider's recent excellent post that has been since stickied (great idea) would most likely explain the reasons for his thinking, at a broad level at least.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057947753

The same post explains the key fault in his assertion for this week. I mentioned it further back in the thread. Let's see if it was noticed...it's only one variable of millions but it's important none the less.

Graces7

Just ventured outside and the cold is breathtaking, literally. Lovely slender half moon and the birds are in fine form.... Mountains veiled in grey cloud..Tide at full and stone-rustling.. what will come will come.

derekon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The same post explains the key fault in his assertion for this week. I mentioned it further back in the thread. Let's see if it was noticed...it's only one variable of millions but it's important none the less.

Just read MT's forecast for the week ahead. Very much a case of nothing to see here, move along. Temps 3-6, sleet with some snow inland and on hills. Against that we just had Gerry on RTE Radio being quite bullish for the week ahead. What to believe?

D

Snowbiee21

derekon wrote: »

Just read MT's forecast for the week ahead. Very much a case of nothing to see here, move along. Temps 3-6, sleet with some snow inland and on hills. Against that we just had Gerry on RTE Radio being quite bullish for the week ahead. What to believe?

D

Time will tell.

irishrover99

Sooo..
That dog from the other day hey.
Anyone still worried about it?.

Kermit.de.frog

Villain wrote: »

I think trying to call it either way is brave to be honest.

munsterlegend

derekon wrote: »

Just read MT's forecast for the week ahead. Very much a case of nothing to see here, move along. Temps 3-6, sleet with some snow inland and on hills. Against that we just had Gerry on RTE Radio being quite bullish for the week ahead. What to believe?

D

What did Gerry say?

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir is Walter Peck

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S4cldkdCjE

KingdomRushed

I've spent a little time this morning trying to determine from the model output whether the country will see widespread snowfall, with it lying in populated low land areas - not just Dublin.

To be honest, it looks very mixed to me. At no point will daytime temperatures be freezing or below. The midlands are most likely to cop lying snow I think, that will last, and perhaps some areas will get quite a lot, places like Tullamore, Longford. I honestly cannot imagine this delivering near the coasts. Stranger things have happened, but marginal has to be the word at the moment.

Billcarson

People can dress it up or down anyway they like but it is a nowcast situation pure and simple as these situations always are. Some could get a nice surprise, others slurry........

munsterlegend

I think a lot depends what time the precipitation falls. The later in the day the better but I fear a sleety mess where I am in Cork but the midlands should get a dusting at least.