Massive price increases after brexit

gandalf

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Another factor or likley event is the push towards another election (labour win) in November, with exit-delay and hard push for 2nd ref 2019 (which will anger 17.4m).
Guess it worked in other countries, when they got question wrong, they were simply asked again.

Well it will be less than 17.4 million getting angered as I suspect a number of those have shuffled their mortal coil in the last two years.

Jimmy.

gandalf wrote: »

Well it will be less than 17.4 million getting angered as I suspect a number of those have shuffled their mortal coil in the last two years.

Not too many have died, take a look at your local diy store on Saturday morning woodies e.g where they go spent €2.50 on a plant or some sand paper and waste staff time talking trash.

Franz Von Peppercorn

realitykeeper wrote: »

The people who get the profits are the same people who got them when Rwanda imported all its cars. Are you saying nobody should buy cars in case someone makes a profit?

You’ve never told us what you do. You love high profit but demand low wages. Clearly you’ve never worked a day in your life.

AndrewJRenko

Bring a suitcase of insulin with you OP

They're going to be running out of it fairly soon.

https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/insulin-brexit

Jimmy.

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

You’ve never told us what you do. You love high profit but demand low wages. Clearly you’ve never worked a day in your life.

Rock and roll work

gandalf

Jimmy. wrote: »

Not too many have died, take a look at your local diy store on Saturday morning woodies e.g where they go spent €2.50 on a plant or some sand paper and waste staff time talking trash.

Woodies are in the UK now?

Franz Von Peppercorn

realitykeeper wrote: »

Stocking parts, raw materials etc for business would be instantly easier not more difficult. For example, if I were in business and suddenly found myself in a situation where all the top salaries, including my own (anything over 50,000) would be taxed at 100% then obviously, all pay would fall to 50,000 or lower.

Which would crash the economy you quarterwit.

Get this into your head. Aggregate demand is the sum total of all the income earned in an economy, and driven mostly by wages. If you artificially control wages you will destroy demand and thus destroy the companies that supply that demand. One mans expenditure is another’s income. Mass unemployment would ensue.

Franz Von Peppercorn

gandalf wrote: »

Well it will be less than 17.4 million getting angered as I suspect a number of those have shuffled their mortal coil in the last two years.

Hard to tell. I think the very act of a new referendum would excite the leavers more than the remainers. Doesn’t really matter though as there’s a large possibility that UKIP could become a significant force if this happens.

Jimmy.

gandalf wrote: »

Woodies are in the UK now?

Don’t be focused on woodies. Was just using it as an example.

Capt'n Midnight

Whirl_wolle wrote: »

ther household supplies. One thing I can think of are the plugs. Ireland and the UK has different sockets and plugs to mainland Europe. If you look at many plugs there's a British standard stamp on them. After brexit and without a deal, sockets and plugs will become more expensive due to taxes etc.

Look at a plug. You'll find IS 401 or IS 401A on a lot of them. And besides all that stuff is made in China so no change.

Most European plugs are different, with lots of variations on the earth pin.

For example here the old two pin plugs are rare whereas Italy uses two different sizes of three-in-a-row as well a German type for higher power devices but they aren't usually where you want to charge your phone. To covert from Irish to Italian you need a "Euro adaptor" which means you can then buy a second adaptor when in Italy if you cant find a German socket.

CruelCoin

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Which would crash the economy you quarterwit.

Get this into your head. Aggregate demand is the sum total of all the income earned in an economy, and driven mostly by wages. If you artificially control wages you will destroy demand and thus destroy the companies that supply that demand. One mans expenditure is another’s income. Mass unemployment would ensue.

Case in point: Venezuela this very minute

CruelCoin

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Look at a plug. You'll find IS 401 or IS 401A on a lot of them. And besides all that stuff is made in China so no change.

Most European plugs are different, with lots of variations on the earth pin.

For example here the old two pin plugs are rare whereas Italy uses two different sizes of three-in-a-row as well a German type for higher power devices but they aren't usually where you want to charge your phone. To covert from Irish to Italian you need a "Euro adaptor" which means you can then buy a second adaptor when in Italy if you cant find a German socket.

I get the impression you would love this video about why the UK plugs are better than all the others.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEfP1OKKz_Q

Yes i watched a video about plugs in my spare time. Don't judge me.

jmayo

Tea Shock wrote: »

It's taking the thread off on a big tangent but there are several reasons why US technology companies for example are here, not just tax.

- we predominantly speak English and will be the only one's left

Ever met the Dutch, the Belgians or the Swedes ?
A lot of them have better fecking English than most people on these islands.

Tea Shock wrote: »

- We are the closest physically

- we are the closest in timezone

- we mostly have a later working day

- We have a migration of many skilled workers built up over 20 years

Ahh FFS.
A migration that could move quite quickly and probably to lower accommodation cost centres.

Tea Shock wrote: »

- we happen to be 8 hours ahead of Silicon Valley

- The IDA

- Some European area's, including some EU members already have a lower headline corporation tax rate than Ireland - Malta, Bulgaria, Gibraltar, Hungary, Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Croatia, Moldova and Cyprus. And, Liechtenstein's is the same as Ireland's.

Ahh FFS again.
Ever been in Gibraltar, Andorra or Liechtenstein ?
They are tiny, are hard to get to and don't have the facilities.
Then Moldova, Bosnia, Macedonia are not even in EU and some of them are ranked worst states in Europe.
While you were at it why didn't you include Albania and Kosovo. :rolleyes:

Tea Shock wrote: »

- If tax's are all the same, nobody in the EU will have a tax advantage on us

Ahhh jaysus.
You talk about all the other supposed advantages of Ireland and then you ignore all the advantages of location, market, infrastructure, skilled labour other bigger higher tax states would have. :rolleyes:

A harmonised tax regime suits the bigger players not the peripheral players.

Tea Shock wrote: »

- It won't happen anyway

Yeah a bit like there won't be a hard landing when the bubble bursts.

Angry bird wrote: »

Things will get tricky here initially, particularly in agri exports. But because we know we're a relatively small and insignificant island on the edge of Europe, we're very adaptable, through necessity. After a few years we'll be all the better for it. And no harm to pick up another language, most Europeans seem to have picked up English, a difficult language to learn by accounts.

Where do you think we will find a replacement cost comparable market for all those agri exports ?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ireland sells less goods to the UK than it does to Belgium.

"Global Britain" - lol

Ehh why not just analyse our indigenous industry rather than the multinationals and then see where our exports go ?

And it is not just agri products.
Whenever a small Irish company conquers the Irish market the next logical step is the huge culturally comparable UK market of 60 odd million.

It is not bloody Belgium.

And that is why we are so exposed.

Deleted User wrote: »

Just looking at a map and surely it would be smarter for all Ireland's exports to/imports from continental EU to go to somewhere like Roscoff, Cherbourg or somewhere similar rather than through Britain and over to the Netherlands and Antwerp/Belgium?

And would it make more sense to make Rosslare the main Irish port? What is the downside of such a route?

Ever been in Roscoff ?
It is tiny, out in the ars*end of Brittany.
Cherbourg is not that big either.

It is more convenient to transit the UK in order to get to the huge Benelux hubs.
There are more ferry services, short ferry routes not at mercy of weather like the French routes and there are major container centres on the UK links.

When will people twig that we are for shipping purposes often seen as a part of UK distribution arm.
And it is more cost effective for us to get goods shipped in bulk through UK and then it is distributed to Ireland like it is distributed to NI or Scotland.
There is huge economy of scale.

JupiterKid

jmayo wrote: »

Ever met the Dutch, the Belgians or the Swedes ?
A lot of them have better fecking English than most people on these islands.



Ahh FFS.
A migration that could move quite quickly and probably to lower accommodation cost centres.



Ahh FFS again.
Ever been in Gibraltar, Andorra or Liechtenstein ?
They are tiny, are hard to get to and don't have the facilities.
Then Moldova, Bosnia, Macedonia are not even in EU and some of them are ranked worst states in Europe.
While you were at it why didn't you include Albania and Kosovo. :rolleyes:



Ahhh jaysus.
You talk about all the other supposed advantages of Ireland and then you ignore all the advantages of location, market, infrastructure, skilled labour other bigger higher tax states would have. :rolleyes:

A harmonised tax regime suits the bigger players not the peripheral players.



Yeah a bit like there won't be a hard landing when the bubble bursts.



Where do you think we will find a replacement cost comparable market for all those agri exports ?



Ehh why not just analyse our indigenous industry rather than the multinationals and then see where our exports go ?

And it is not just agri products.
Whenever a small Irish company conquers the Irish market the next logical step is the huge culturally comparable UK market of 60 odd million.

It is not bloody Belgium.

And that is why we are so exposed.



Ever been in Roscoff ?
It is tiny, out in the ars*end of Brittany.
Cherbourg is not that big either.

It is more convenient to transit the UK in order to get to the huge Benelux hubs.
There are more ferry services, short ferry routes not at mercy of weather like the French routes and there are major container centres on the UK links.

When will people twig that we are for shipping purposes often seen as a part of UK distribution arm.
And it is more cost effective for us to get goods shipped in bulk through UK and then it is distributed to Ireland like it is distributed to NI or Scotland.
There is huge economy of scale.

So basically you’re saying that we are utterly f*cked after Brexit? Things will certainly be very difficult for the agri and SME sectors, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

I get the impression that the gubberment have done zero preparation for the distinct possibility of a no deal Brexit scenario.

EdgeCase

CruelCoin wrote: »

I get the impression you would love this video about why the UK plugs are better than all the others.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEfP1OKKz_Q

Yes i watched a video about plugs in my spare time. Don't judge me.

They're fiercely proud of those enormous plugs in England.

Oddly, it was EU regulations that required the UK plugs (and all other non-recessed plugs) to have insulation on the pins. The original British design relied on darwinism largely and an assumption that the plugs didn't make contact, other than at the very tips of the pins, so they had to be almost fully inserted.

The de facto standard plug on the continent is the CEE 7 system which has a recessed socket. So, when you plug in a 16 amp plug the pins do not need to be partly sheathed as the plug face / body is completely enclosed by the socket. This means you can use much more of the pin surface to make contact and they tend not to overheat as much as a result.

Our plugs can sometimes get very hot if they're not fully inserted or of the contacts are a little worn as they're putting all the power through a narrow area at the tips of the pins due to the design.

CEE 7 plugs have 3 sizes that all fit the same socket. You can have earthed 16 amps (big bulky plug for big bulky appliances like washing machines and kettles), 16 amp non-earthed - a bit neater and used for things like say vacuum cleaners that don't need earth or for all the small electronic stuff, the small 2.5amp 2-pin, non earthed flat Europlug that can fit in your pocket, laptop case very easily.

It means that an iPhone doesn't have the same size plug as a tumble dryer. The UK system defines everything as needing the same huge plug.

Then you've got the fuses in the UK plugs, which are nothing to do with personal protection. They've a ring circuit which was designed to save copper, by connecting a ring of wires to the fuse board at both ends. This allows you to assume that it can carry more power (as it's being fed from both ends). So, they use the same diameter wiring with a 32A circuit that you'd use with a 20Amp one in continental wiring (or a lot of Irish wiring that uses radials too).

The fuse is basically just to protect your appliance cord from being plugged into a 32amp circuit as otherwise it would just potentially catch fire if there was a short.

The fuses also tend to run hot, particularly if not seated properly, as they're a quite crude design that just relies on clips / bent metal to hold them in place. If there's poor contact, they can get very hot and it's one of the reasons you get burnt sockets.

The UK regs also allowed plugs to be made out of very old urea resin plastics i.e. bakelite, which we still make a lot of the white sockets out of. It's brittle and prone to cracking if hit or dropped.

EU regulations eliminated that from the plugs at least. If you've ever encountered old Irish plugs, it was common enough for them to be cracked due to mechanical damage.

And to top it all off, if you leave a UK plug on the floor it will stand with the pins straight up which is ideal for stabbing you in the foot when you get out of bed.

...

Also, despite what the British forums would have you believe, millions of Swedes are not being electrocuted by lethally dangerous Europlugs every day oddly enough. In fact, they're probably far safer than most british households are because they tend to have things like universally installed proper RCDs. They've been mandatory for much longer in most of Europe, including in Ireland. They're quite a recent thing in the UK.

Anyway, sorry of it's an OT post, but it's just another one of those cases of British exceptionalism and superiority complex. The UK plug's not a horrible design, but it's got plenty of flaws and the European systems, while not perfect either, are extremely safe.

Also btw: All of Europe with the exception of Denmark (which is phasing out its national standard) and Italy (also phasing it out) uses CEE 7. There are two versions of this - French and German. The only difference is the German one has two scraping earth clips and the french one has a pin that sticks into the face of the plug. The same plugs fit both types so the difference is irrelevant.
It's the de facto standard for 230V used right across the EU, EEA, Russia, South Korea and loads of other places.

Switzerland uses weird plugs, but that's for similar reasons to Brexiteerism.

Also, if Ireland does have to change, it's not that big a deal. Spain successfully switched over from their older national standards, so did Greece and plenty of other places over the years too.

If it means a way better choice of cheaper appliances and mobile phone chargers that you can fit in your pocket without stabbing your leg, I don't really see the downside.

jmayo

JupiterKid wrote: »

So basically you’re saying that we are utterly f*cked after Brexit? Things will certainly be very difficult for the agri and SME sectors, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

I get the impression that the gubberment have done zero preparation for the distinct possibility of a no deal Brexit scenario.

No some people, ala the usual crowd that crows how great our exports are and who work for major IT,web or pharma multinational, will be ok job wise although an economic downturn has wide ranging effects for most people.

But SMEs and agri employ a huge amount of people and if they are in trouble the country is in trouble.

Britain will still need food, but are they just going to go for cheap meat from South America rather than Irish beef ?

Britain will go into recession especially if there are major multinational exits and that means less imports, less spending on other goods that Irish SMEs may be exporting to them.

And it is just not our exports that are affected, but a lot of our imports are dependent on UK.
Just walk into a supermarket or retail outlet and just see the product range.
Most of it comes through UK and it is easy for some around here to say ah shure we can get it shipped direct from France, Belgium, or The Netherlands.
That is added cost right there.

There are huge wide ranging knock on effects all over the place.
For instance how many here buy flowers for mothers day or Valentine's day ?
Ever notice those Dutch trucks that drop a trailer in Dublin and then continue to other bases around the country delivering flowers ?
Do people think there aren't going to be cost implications of them now going to have to go through customs/tariffs in UK or drive down to France to catch ferry to Ireland ?

Anytime I buy IT equipment from a distributor based in Ireland they source the kit through bigger UK distribution arm, not Germany, not Belgium, not France.
And even if you buy online from say likes of Komplett, it is sourced out of The Netherlands or at least it was.
Now can anyone tell me for 2 points how is stuff most often shipped from Netherlands to Ireland ?

From a Freight transport report of circa 2007, approximately 1.5 million tonnes of imports and a little less of exports passed overland by truck through the UK on it's way to and from Europe.

I am not sure if Ireland has ever availed of funding from the likes of Marco Polo II, Motorways of the Sea and other European Commission (EC) programmes to try cut the road intensive nature of traffic through the UK so that there were more direct connections to European ports?

This could be one area where we get funding to cut out the UK land corridor.

There are also other implications that most people haven't even thought about.

If we are getting trucks direct from Europe we may have to revisit out high restrictions as it would be more cost effective to have higher trucks on longer routes.

And if we are to continue our trade with a now non EU customs entity in the UK, we are going to have to install customs checks in our ports and our ports do not have the room to cater for this.
There is a myth that a truck going onto or off from a ferry can clear customs in 5 minutes, but we all know that is being optimistic.
So where do we back up the 240 trucks that rolls off the Ulysses when she docks from Holyhead?
And just remember they could also be up to 1300 cars on board.
Where do the 240 trucks destined for her loading park up whilst they wait to clear customs ?

And these scenarios have a knock on effect on the Dublin Port tunnel and Dublin traffic.

Grayson

Anyone else finding the discussion about plug sockets to be the most interesting part of this thread?

Steve F

I wouldn't worry too much yet. Irish media can't even pronounce it correctly,never mind know whats going to happen after BreGZit

EdgeCase

We can't review our height restrictions. They're way higher than the rest of the EU!

The maximum height of trucks allowed in Ireland is 4.65m officially. In the rest of Europe it's 4m.

https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/dimensions_0.pdf

If anything we would have to reduce the height of our trucks for continental exports, as they are over height for many European bridges and tunnels if above 4m

4068ac1elhodqr

The lack of preperation (on all sides) suggests the UK-EU has a 'Plan C',
That is a Norway type 'buy in' deal to access EU trade of goods no matter what.
'BrexitIABN'.

This is the only way to solve the border issue (NI citizens 'by default' can claim both EU(Ire) &UK identities, you can't 'border' EU/UK folks from either the EU or UK).

In the final hours of negotiations, if this access to market can't be agreeded to (simple price deal),
The 2nd ref will be pushed in asap. Perhaps a snap election with Labour win - due to the Cons deliberate extreme incompetence.

There is growing belief that a 2nd vote will happen, technically it shouldn't.
The odds are shockingly low, and some shortening is occuring.



The UK won't be allowed to flourish (tax-haven) under WTO terms outside of the EU.
Of course if there is a repeat 'leave' things will get very, very embarrassing indeed.

jmayo

EdgeCase wrote: »

We can't review our height restrictions. They're way higher than the rest of the EU!

The maximum height of trucks allowed in Ireland is 4.65m officially. In the rest of Europe it's 4m.

https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/dimensions_0.pdf

If anything we would have to reduce the height of our trucks for continental exports, as they are over height for many European bridges and tunnels if above 4m

Didn't realise that.
Always thought Europeans had some bigger ones.

Imagine if there was rerun of Brexit referendum and the UK decided they would stay after all, what happens next.

Do they just phone Brussels and say sorry for the waste of time over the last couple of years and "shure we weren't serious".
"And would you mind tearing up that Article 50 letter we sent ye."

And then just imagine how the British media would spin it if it was the Irish that did that?

Grayson

jmayo wrote: »

Didn't realise that.
Always thought Europeans had some bigger ones.

Imagine if there was rerun of Brexit referendum and the UK decided they would stay after all, what happens next.

Do they just phone Brussels and say sorry for the waste of time over the last couple of years and "shure we weren't serious".
"And would you mind tearing up that Article 50 letter we sent ye."

And then just imagine how the British media would spin it if it was the Irish that did that?

How would the daily mail spin it you mean Would half the country be committing treason. I'd imagine the mail would say that the country voted to stay after blackmail by the EU.

I saw this morning that the shadow chancellor said they'd support a vote on the terms but they wouldn't want stay in the Eu on the ballot. So just the deal or the hardest of brexits. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/mcdonnell-new-brexit-referendum-should-not-include-remain-option

That makes no sense, if you're having a referendum, put the options that people want on the ballot.

Still, if Brexit was dropped, how long before the tory rebels start agitating again?

EdgeCase

Steve F wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much yet. Irish media can't even pronounce it correctly,never mind know whats going to happen after BreGZit

Sure it's a made up portmanteau and it's not like the British media can even pronounce Ireland. For some reason it's usually Eyeland.

wexie

jmayo wrote: »

Imagine if there was rerun of Brexit referendum and the UK decided they would stay after all, what happens next.

While I don't know if it's likely there will be another referendum (I don't think it is) if there happens to be one I wouldn't be in the least surprised if that is what would happen.

To be honest I think that's probably one of the biggest reasons they're not having another referendum.

Grayson

It's nuts how we're only at this stage now. The day after the referendum the EU released it's guidelines for negotiations. It's taken two years since the referendum for the UK to release it's position paper (the checkers deal) and it's rubbish. As a starting point it wasn't too bad but it should have been released the day after article 50 was invoked. If this was 18 months ago the EU would be able to say what's unacceptable and the Uk could start modifying.
The border issue barely got a mention during the referendum and it's one of the biggest stumbling blocks. All the brexiteers knew that they'd have to negotiate with every country in the EU, including Ireland, and they knew about the GFA. Yet no plans were made. No position papers were released. No feasibility studies for different solutions were performed.

The UK population has been let down by vote leave and the current government. They are facing a huge crises and have no-one who can handle it. And the opposition is just as bad. Their tactic is to watch it all burn and let the Tories take the blame.

The Rape of Lucretia

Mrhuth wrote: »

I can guarantee you that everything will increase massively.

Super. But how can we be sure you have the funds to compensate us if you are wrong?




While we all appreciate the decision to let the EU move without driving with the handbrake that has been the UK since 1984, the UK made two mistakes before the Brexit referendum :

1) it needed to have a public information campaign to inform people on the mainland that Northern Ireland was part of the UK.

2) It needed to read the Eu treaty on leaving, and realise that that it was written to enable countries to leave, not to remain but pretend to itself that it was leaving.

These two errors have led to the intractable Leave tangle in which the UK now finds itself.
So it is easily arguable, that the UK is now fit to have a referendum on the topic, having learned a lot since the dry run 2 years ago.

Steve F

EdgeCase wrote: »

Sure it's a made up portmanteau and it's not like the British media can even pronounce Ireland. For some reason it's usually Eyeland.

Very true EdgeCase and Americans say Eye-er-lund!:D

wexie

Grayson wrote: »

It's nuts how we're only at this stage now. The day after the referendum the EU released it's guidelines for negotiations. It's taken two years since the referendum for the UK to release it's position paper (the checkers deal) and it's rubbish. As a starting point it wasn't too bad but it should have been released the day after article 50 was invoked. If this was 18 months ago the EU would be able to say what's unacceptable and the Uk could start modifying.

It's almost like nobody ever thought the vote would be for leave and therefor they didn't really prepare for it.....

ruahead

Grayson wrote: »

Anyone else finding the discussion about plug sockets to be the most interesting part of this thread?

Lol yes good lines
We can adapt

4068ac1elhodqr

wexie wrote: »

It's almost like nobody ever thought the vote would be for leave and therefor they didn't really prepare for it.....

But they had over 2yrs so far, and still nothing significant in motion.

Everything points to a BIABN event.
They simply pay an annual membership fee, and not too much changes.

Else the 'eRef v2.0' which will certainly ruffle a few feathers.