Massive price increases after brexit

4068ac1elhodqr

Probably a bit late now expanding Rosslare, something that should have been well underway on Brexit+1day.

Rail is a big factor - more so for getting items from the Rhine to Britanny.
Roll-on/off truck services are good these days, think it's the final mile/km that is the most difficult.

Perhaps an expansion of the likes of ParcelMotels collection points will put the final nail into the high streets.

Grayson

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Probably a bit late now expanding Rosslare, something that should have been well underway on Brexit+1day.

Rail is a big factor - more so for getting items from the Rhine to Britanny.
Roll-on/off truck services are good these days, think it's the final mile/km that is the most difficult.

Perhaps an expansion of the likes of ParcelMotels collection points will put the final nail into the high streets.

And weirdly we're still more prepared than the British are.

wexie

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Rail is a big factor - more so for getting items from the Rhine to Britanny.
Roll-on/off truck services are good these days, think it's the final mile/km that is the most difficult.

Would that be economically feasible though, or sensible?

Considering the Rhine runs all the way to a nice big, modern and convenient container port at the end of it?

Doesn't seem it would make much sense?

Consider the size of this port to anything on the French Atlantic coast (Rotterdam is by FAAAR the largest port in Europe*.) Bringing stuff from the Rhine to Britanny to have it shipped from there to Ireland wouldn't offer a saving of either time or money.


** according to Wikipedia anyways

ressem

D'oh. And Foynes on the mouth of the Shannon. currently having a €130 million upgrade, to follow a previous upgrade, handling €7 billion of cargo annually.

If you look at that on Google maps, looks like it's a bit much to fit into Rosslare harbour's more populated location without protests.

EdgeCase

wexie wrote: »

When you say 'we' do you mean 'we' Ireland or 'we' the company I work for?

I was wondering about that, if there's much in the way of freight that doesn't come through the UK?

Are we likely to see increases in ferries and perhaps routes between Ireland and perhaps France, Spain?

We as in Ireland :

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-busting-ferry-launched-from-dublin-port-1.3468760

If there’s demand shipping companies will want to supply it.

Boats have this amazing ability to serve other ports.

4068ac1elhodqr

wexie wrote: »

Would that be economically feasible though, or sensible?

Considering the Rhine runs all the way to a nice big, modern and convenient container port at the end of it?

True, Rhine-Britanny maybe not the best example, more Spain, Portugal, France. Guess it all depends on a mixed equation of cost vs time, between rail, road, air or ship.

Think the Mini factory in the uk had it's own 'factory rail line', so they could stack dozens of new cars and send striaght to a south coast port.

The uk might be more worried about s£lling stuff out, than importing. They've a decent enough chance at becoming self-sufficient in the longer-term.

Don't get the idea behind Shannon upgrades, maybe 80% of the population on the island is on the East coast side.

Pinch Flat

Apparently gammon is going to sky rocket in price. Bound to upset a few.

ressem

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Don't get the idea behind Shannon upgrades, maybe 80% of the population on the island is on the East coast side.

Different specializations.
The Shannon port company says that they handle the larger ships "up to 200,000 dwt" and a lot of bulk materials and larger pieces like wind turbine parts that you don't want on the Dublin motorways I suspect.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/spt/statisticsofporttraffic2016/
Table 2.

ressem

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

The uk might be more worried about s£lling stuff out, than importing. They've a decent enough chance at becoming self-sufficient in the longer-term.

There's plenty of countries that can become self sufficient, but often at the cost of a drop in living standards. Being social and trading more-often-than-not works better.

The UK makes quite a bit of income on selling expertise, services. The transport costs are not the issue for these. It's whether EU providers will be favoured by EU members in the post-Brexit era.
Of course we buy plenty of services from the US and other non-EU countries (e.g. the Channel Islands), so it is possible for the UK trade in these services to be made successful.

I think the investment should be made at a state level to lessen our reliance on the UK's trade network, because even if somehow Brexit gets cancelled or whatever, we should have minimal exposure to their politics.

This is also the case for big business. Even if Brexit doesn't wreck everything, there will be far less FDI for a generation.

Ally Dick

raxy wrote: »

Now now, I'm sure he has in depth research and expert analysis to back up all his claims & figures.
He might revise it slightly when he realises Amazon from Germany, France or even Italy offer better value than the UK.

I've had problems with Amazon Spain. Bought a phone for around 50 euro cheaper than the equivalent on Amazon UK, but it went missing...and it took a month to get the replacement. I believe theft is rife in the postal system in Spain and Italy

realitykeeper

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

That was an acid trip to read. Parts of it are true but all the conclusions are fantasy.

Practically everything you own bar what's in your fridge hasn't been produced in Ireland. If everyone was on lower wages every single individuals purchasing power would absolutely plummet. Lower wages would not in any way shape or form reduce the cost of phones, cars, tv's, non Irish food stuffs like coffee and bananas, clothes, paint, tools, stationary, building materials ect ect ect.

Lower wages would reduce debt. That is true. But getting rid of the minimum wage and enforcing a salary cap in the private sector is complete madness.

I will address the point you made in bold print, regarding the affordability of phones, cars, tvs etc. It is true these items would be far more expensive in the medium term but in the longer term those products would be manufactured here which would not only improve the country`s trade balance but the jobs created would replace a lot of the service sector and retail jobs which is good because those jobs do not do much for Ireland`s trade balance.

Retail jobs do boost GDP because they facilitate the velocity of currency in the economy but the velocity of currency is just the "heat" effect. In a recession, it is the jobs which contribute to a trade surplus that are most needed.

As for things like coffee, bananas and other non manufactured goods, yes those would also become more expensive but in the long term, people could afford to purchase these goods in an more economically sustainable way.

realitykeeper

ressem wrote: »

Also disagree with many of your statements. And I'll try to explain why...

I'll agree that...
Political or market driven pay increases does make many worthwhile activities and industries become unaffordable.
Excessive pay disparity can also make it hard to have a good standard of living.

But the rest?
Paying small wages to allow rubbish to be sorted by hand? Then these people are going to live where? Eat what?

Houses and food. Remember, costs would plummet.

ressem wrote: »

The government would be obliged to subsidise the living standards of these people to a minimum standard to avoid creating a no-hope underclass of worker.

A low cost economy is full of hope and opportunity! Just imagine starting a business, I mean any business and knowing that success was virtually guaranteed. Nobody could afford the imported scented candles so you could potentially corner the domestic market and begin exporting.

A low cost economy brings money into the country and a high cost economy sends money out. The imbalances caused by a high cost economy become apparent at times of recession.

ressem wrote: »

Way more cost-effective to just train people to sort their rubbish at source. If they need to be lazy / thoughtless then they can pay the premium for the people & machinery to automate it for them.

The money would have to be borrowed to do that. It is not sustainable.

ressem wrote: »

What I think would happen is that people and businesses (could be Irish, EU, US, Asian, African), not restricted by these income restrictions will outbid for the (artificially price & demand decreased) assets, and have less incentive to manage them well, keep them in good shape.
(historically demonstrated by well off landlords that neglect the state of their tenancies due to disinterest )

What you are describing is the vulture funds operating in Ireland today. Had capitalism prevailed and the banks were allowed to fail, Ireland would still be masters of our own destiny (within the EU). As is, the vulture funds have government guarantees they will not be taxed on the property loans they are buying on the cheap. The government was so focused on re-inflating asset prices, they have fixed it so that some mortgage defaulters have spent up to a decade in properties without paying a cent on the mortgage. No wonder there is a housing crisis.

ressem wrote: »

SENSIBLE state borrowing for the purpose of wages is not a terrible idea, if the benefit to the citizens exceeds the borrowing risk.

It is a terrible idea. The risks are atrocious.

ressem wrote: »

We're a geographically isolated island with stable equally prosperous neighbouring countries. We are not having a hundred thousand low skilled migrants arriving at the ports each year, unlike Italy / Greece. Dude, relax a bit and think before calling for an authoritarian government to force control down our throats.

The entire western world is in this pickle of paying their citizens too much. It has ruined the mindset of European and US citizens but the true consequences will be apocalyptic because people are so spoilt they will not be able to deal with reality when it hits. That could be before the decade is out.

Church on Tuesday

Mrhuth wrote: »

I can guarantee you that everything will increase massively. Even now our current prices are so much higher than prices in the UK so you end up buying half of the things from ebay or amazon as otherwise you're forced to pay 3 times the price compared to UK products. Most of our imports are from UK so 90% of the things will increase heavily in price after the outside EU tax. Just like buying from USA, you pay $100 on a $300 item just for taxes. UK leaving is going to crash Ireland. Should have joined the UK or colonized the world. I'm moving to the UK in a few months permanently and I'll laugh at you all when the UK doesn't babysit and support you anymore. You're gonna cry about how the evil overlord ain't protecting you anymore. Good luck, you'll definitely need it. This is what happens when you rely on someone else for life support

If I were a lad(or lassie) looking to get out of Ireland before the "Brexit Armageddon" hits, it's not the UK I'd be heading to for sanctuary that's for sure. UK folk are in for a rough ride for quite some time, they will recover of course, their economy is too big for the ****e times to continue for too long, but it will be a bit.


So either the OP is a troll, in which case fair enough, or he or she is as deluded as Mrs. May.

4068ac1elhodqr

realitykeeper wrote: »

I will address the point you made in bold print, regarding the affordability of phones, cars, tvs etc. It is true these items would be far more expensive in the medium term but in the longer term those products would be manufactured here

Whilst there is a revival in dumb phones, you'd need some amount of USP's to compete with the likes of S.Kor, China & SE Asia. You'd have to source all the special parts (from asia) cheaper than asia and assemble faster in Europe, with lower labour costs than they can, then find a market to sell to, again cheaper than competitiors. Ask Erickson/Nokia how they're phones are selling these days.

Cars and TV even more so, the large car groups have hundreds of patents on car parts. Can't imagine rockin up to the bank manager to ask for a loan for a new hydrogen/e-car better than anything else in the crowded market.

He'll ask how much you want, you'll say about €10bn, and a couple of hectares of industrial zoned land.

Agree self-sufficency and some (light) manufacturing is the way forward, but start small, perhaps with robotics where not so many patents or products actually exist as of yet. Can sell unique products at premium, seek new patent protection and get ahead of the (next) curve.

ressem

realitykeeper wrote: »

...but in the longer term those products would be manufactured here which would not only improve the country`s trade balance ...

False. The high tech products would not become manufactured here just because of a halving of the minimum wage.
More likely that those of us on the sharp end of your pay destruction proposal will end up importing essentials second-hand from the EU, and making compromises. (Working on Raspberry PIs / mobiles connected to large screens rather than laptops.)

replace a lot of the service sector and retail jobs which is good because those jobs do not do much for Ireland`s trade balance.

such as replacing education, training, health with jobs as bin sorters?

As for things like coffee, bananas and other non manufactured goods, yes those would also become more expensive but in the long term, people could afford to purchase these goods in an more economically sustainable way.

And what about other imports like patented pharmaceuticals, vehicles, fuel that will be out of reach?

realitykeeper

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Whilst there is a revival in dumb phones, you'd need some amount of USP's to compete with the likes of S.Kor, China & SE Asia. You'd have to source all the special parts (from asia) cheaper than asia and assemble faster in Europe, with lower labour costs than they can, then find a market to sell to, again cheaper than competitiors. Ask Erickson/Nokia how they're phones are selling these days.

Cars and TV even more so, the large car groups have hundreds of patents on car parts. Can't imagine rockin up to the bank manager to ask for a loan for a new hydrogen/e-car better than anything else in the crowded market.

He'll ask how much you want, you'll say about €10bn, and a couple of hectares of industrial zoned land.

Agree self-sufficency and some (light) manufacturing is the way forward, but start small, perhaps with robotics where not so many patents or products actually exist as of yet. Can sell unique products at premium, seek new patent protection and get ahead of the (next) curve.

Everything is cheaper to manufacture in a low cost economy. That includes the thing that goes in the thing, that goes in the thing.

4068ac1elhodqr

realitykeeper wrote: »

Everything is cheaper to manufacture in a low cost economy. That includes the thing that goes in the thing, that goes in the thing.

Everything is cheaper to manufacture in a 'low wage slave economy', with very little workers rights, no unions, and high rate of 'jumpers' from the upper floors (some factories in Asia actually have 'catch nets').

Instead of exploiting people, perhaps exploit technology, innovation, education and science to better ones self in preperation for the next (4th) industrial reveloution.

realitykeeper

ressem wrote: »

False. The high tech products would not become manufactured here just because of a halving of the minimum wage.
More likely that those of us on the sharp end of your pay destruction proposal will end up importing essentials second-hand from the EU, and making compromises. (Working on Raspberry PIs / mobiles connected to large screens rather than laptops.)



such as replacing education, training, health with jobs as bin sorters?



And what about other imports like patented pharmaceuticals, vehicles, fuel that will be out of reach?

For all our high tech industry, Ireland has had to borrow since the great recession started ten years ago.

Doctors and nurses do not bring money into the country, they are a liability we are paying far far far too much for.

Belt tightening is good when you live beyond your means. Work is a valuable commodity and industry goes where it is cheap. Waste is reduced when people cannot afford to be wasteful. That is a good thing, especially when the imbalances surface at times of recession. Waiting for the recession before doing what is right is a bit like waiting until you have cancer before you start to look after your health.

Franz Von Peppercorn

realitykeeper wrote: »

For all our high tech industry, Ireland has had to borrow since the great recession started ten years ago.

Doctors and nurses do not bring money into the country, they are a liability we are paying far far far too much for.

Belt tightening is good when you live beyond your means. Work is a valuable commodity and industry goes where it is cheap. Waste is reduced when people cannot afford to be wasteful. That is a good thing, especially when the imbalances surface at times of recession. Waiting for the recession before doing what is right is a bit like waiting until you have cancer before you start to look after your health.

Countries borrow all the time. All that matters is the debt burden isn’t increasing relative to GDP if already high. (Actually you can borrow at a rate of GDP increase + inflation and keep the same ratio)

Franz Von Peppercorn

realitykeeper wrote: »

Everything is cheaper to manufacture in a low cost economy. That includes the thing that goes in the thing, that goes in the thing.

Not true at all.

Your understanding of economics is ass backwards.

realitykeeper

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Everything is cheaper to manufacture in a 'low wage slave economy', with very little workers rights, no unions, and high rate of 'jumpers' from the upper floors (some factories in Asia actually have 'catch nets').

Instead of exploiting people, perhaps exploit technology, innovation, education and science to better ones self in preperation for the next (4th) industrial reveloution.

The figure at the bottom right corner of you payslip is only as good as what it will buy. Costs will fall in a low pay economic environment. The distorting effect of borrowing and maintaining a high cost economy will devastate the country when the next recession comes.

If you really cared about people, you would not just think about the here and now or the next paycheck. The unimaginable suffering that is now unavoidable, will be the direct consequence of paying ourselves too much.

realitykeeper

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Countries borrow all the time. All that matters is the debt burden isn’t increasing relative to GDP if already high. (Actually you can borrow at a rate of GDP increase + inflation and keep the same ratio)

GDP is affected by things like consumers shopping. The amount of shopping that goes on does not bring an awful lot extra into the country, in fact, the more shopping we do, the more money is likely to be lost in terms of our trade balance.

When the next recession hits, the amount of shopping (the velocity of currency) will decrease and that will impact GDP.

If the EU, do another round of QE, come the next recession, the Euro will not retain its purchasing power anyway. That is why it is so important to preempt the problem by cutting pay a hell of a lot before the next recession.

amcalester

realitykeeper wrote: »

GDP is affected by things like consumers shopping. The amount of shopping that goes on does not bring an awful lot extra into the country, in fact, the more shopping we do, the more money is likely to be lost in terms of our trade balance.

When the next recession hits, the amount of shopping (the velocity of currency) will decrease and that will impact GDP.

If the EU, do another round of QE, come the next recession, the Euro will not retain its purchasing power anyway. That is why it is so important to preempt the problem by cutting pay a hell of a lot before the next recession.

When is the next recession due?

Any day now according to your previous posts or has that been pushed back, again?

ressem

realitykeeper wrote: »

Everything is cheaper to manufacture in a low cost economy. That includes the thing that goes in the thing, that goes in the thing.

Other than small craft stuff, no. Not for a long time.

If your employees and business environment have difficulty keep the assembly line stocked & running then that almost immediately becomes untrue.

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html wrote:

the cost, excluding the materials, of building a $1,500 computer in Elk Grove was $22 a machine. In Singapore, it was $6. In Taiwan, $4.85. Wages weren’t the major reason for the disparities. Rather it was costs like inventory and how long it took workers to finish a task.

Henry Ford had the famous practice of paying over the minimum to decrease turnover of trained staff.

What are the steps to get Ireland to emulate the products made by Foxconn/ Hon-hai Precision and their Foxconn cities in China, with hundreds of thousands of employees.

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html wrote:

In part, Asia was attractive because the semiskilled workers there were cheaper. But that wasn’t driving Apple. For technology companies, the cost of labor is minimal compared with the expense of buying parts and managing supply chains that bring together components and services from hundreds of companies.

That article says that in China it took 15 days to locate the 8700 engineers required for organizing the production of the product. Not possible in the US, but you consider that Ireland can?

And trying to get back to topic... the EU equivalent supply chains are what Britain's politicians and voters are cutting. I really don't see that they understand this.

Hector Bellend

Mrhuth wrote: »

I can guarantee you that everything will increase massively. Even now our current prices are so much higher than prices in the UK so you end up buying half of the things from ebay or amazon as otherwise you're forced to pay 3 times the price compared to UK products. Most of our imports are from UK so 90% of the things will increase heavily in price after the outside EU tax. Just like buying from USA, you pay $100 on a $300 item just for taxes. UK leaving is going to crash Ireland. Should have joined the UK or colonized the world. I'm moving to the UK in a few months permanently and I'll laugh at you all when the UK doesn't babysit and support you anymore. You're gonna cry about how the evil overlord ain't protecting you anymore. Good luck, you'll definitely need it. This is what happens when you rely on someone else for life support

No you can't

EdgeCase

It could, of course, have the opposite impact within 12-18 months of Brexit: Irish supply chains switching away from being an off shoot of the UK, a lot of shopping around, and more continental European pricing of a lot of consumer goods and more diversity of suppliers.

There all sorts of possible outcomes, but I wouldn't just write off the Irish economy. It's got a scale and a wealth that is utterly incomparable to where it was back in the 60s or 70s and can definitely attract all sorts of suppliers in.

The fact that is billions of Euro worth of demand to be satisfied will bring in people quite keen to get into this market. I know there are already French and Benelux distributors sniffing around.

realitykeeper

amcalester wrote: »

When is the next recession due?

Any day now according to your previous posts or has that been pushed back, again?

It is due too soon. The damage has been done but its never too late to start doing the right thing.

fergus1001

amcalester wrote:

When is the next recession due?

so your saying there will be no recession ?

hahahahaha

daft

amcalester

fergus1001 wrote: »

so your saying there will be no recession ?

hahahahaha

daft

No I’m not, I said nothing of the sort.

And it’s you’re. I see your grammar is as good as your comprehension.

I asked when it would be? RK has been preaching impending economic doom for years, always at some vague point in the future.

I’m just wondering what his latest timescale is.