Massive price increases after brexit

WoollyRedHat

Mrhuth wrote: »

Ireland relies on UK. Think or Ireland as a child inside a woman's womb. UK is the mother and if she dies, so does the child.

You're an idiot.

realitykeeper

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Port security would also need stepped up (at point of departure), Laois has enough mysterious lads jumping out of trucks arriving from the continent.

That`s because we pay ourselves far too much in this country. From a migrants point of view, 10 euro for an hours work could represent the equivalent of a weeks pay in their own country. In Ireland, if salaries over 50,000 were subject to 100% tax, that would serve as a salary cap. This, along with the abolition of the minimum wage, would bring be far reaching benefits. For starters, no more unskilled migrants. I mean, what would be the point in coming to Ireland if they could not make a lot of money to send home? There is another benefit, low pay all around would stop the stream of money out of the economy to the home countries of any remaining migrant`s. And, since migrant workers put downward pressure on salaries anyway, why not preempt that downward pressure by reducing pay to keep the migrants away?

With low pay, costs would plummet. It would be possible to sort rubbish by hand and every tonne of plastic, tin or paper would generate enough money to pay a living wage to the workers. As things stand, sorting rubbish by hand would be far too expensive and losses would be enormous. Europe will begin issuing fines if recycling is not stepped up in the coming years. If the cost of sorting rubbish by hand is made low enough to become profitable, there would likewise be many more opportunities in other endeavors such as crafts and manufacturing basic goods, that would then be economically viable. The indigenous industrial sector in this country would have a chance to grow.

Importantly, people (and the government) need to realize that borrowing to pay higher salaries or paying higher salaries to stimulate growth is a terrible idea. It is not sustainable. In fact, it compares with borrowing money from abroad so we can all bid against each other to push house prices higher.

Utter madness! High pay will eventually lead to widespread poverty and the ruination of the state.

Kermit.de.frog

Ireland sells less goods to the UK than it does to Belgium.

"Global Britain" - lol

Lord Trollington

Whirl_wolle wrote: »

Hopefully a deal will come about. Recently there's talk of a second referendum for the UK but I must admit it's a bit too late for that. That should have been done before they enacted article 50. I don't see a second referendum going down too well over there either.

We do rely a lot on the UK for many products. For example,

Ford is a UK car manufacturer and its popular here in Ireland. So without a deal, Ford cars and Ford car parts will become more expensive. Shopping local or shopping online from further afield isn't going to help here.

Thankfully Ireland is big with pharmaceutical companies however there would be medicines and other medical supplies we don't work on and come from abroad. When my pet was on medication, the medication came from the UK. So after brexit and without a deal, human and veterinary medicines will be hammered.

Other household supplies. One thing I can think of are the plugs. Ireland and the UK has different sockets and plugs to mainland Europe. If you look at many plugs there's a British standard stamp on them. After brexit and without a deal, sockets and plugs will become more expensive due to taxes etc.

Just on your Ford point. Nissan,Ford, BMW, Land Rover/ Jaguar , Vauxhall, Honda and 20 other car manufacturers build cars in the UK. Ford is actually one of the smallest producers in UK at moment . Most of their European building is done in Germany. But anyhow....

They build approximately 1.8 million cars a year in the UK. 80% of these are exported to Europe, Russia and other countries. 800,000 people are employed in the process.

Nissan BMW and others have already threatened to move their plants to other countries if there is tariffs placed on their exports. In a nutshell. If those exports become more expensive , the numbers they sell drops and jobs are lost .

These big companies will just move their production to Europe for tariff free trade . Plans are already afoot for many of them , they are just waiting to see how the Brexit shambles unfolds . This will be the case for many industries , not just the motor industry .

The UK genuinely would want to thread carefully.

jimmytwotimes 2013

mad muffin wrote: »

And what about the bbc?! Has anyone thought about what will happen when we won’t be able to watch the bbc?! :eek::mad::(

I made the BBC

The J Stands for Jay

Lord Trollington wrote: »

Just on your Ford point. Nissan,Ford, BMW, Land Rover/ Jaguar , Vauxhall, Honda and 20 other car manufacturers build cars in the UK. Ford is actually one of the smallest producers in UK at moment . Most of their European building is done in Germany. But anyhow....

They build approximately 1.8 million cars a year in the UK. 80% of these are exported to Europe, Russia and other countries. 800,000 people are employed in the process.

Nissan BMW and others have already threatened to move their plants to other countries if there is tariffs placed on their exports. In a nutshell. If those exports become more expensive , the numbers they sell drops and jobs are lost .

These big companies will just move their production to Europe for tariff free trade . Plans are already afoot for many of them , they are just waiting to see how the Brexit shambles unfolds . This will be the case for many industries , not just the motor industry .

The UK genuinely would want to thread carefully.

It's severing the threads their trying to do, not be careful about them.

ressem

€13 billion of imports from the UK/NI to Ireland in 2016
€17 billion of exports to the UK/NI from Ireland

Of this Agriculture and Chemicals were a trade surplus to Ireland's benefit.
+€984, +€1,729 million

my guess:
The agriculture trade is the more sensitive one, for livelihoods and politically.
Much of Northern Ireland's exports to Ireland might be redirected to Britain, if too noncompetitive to sell south of the border because of tariffs.

Fuel imports to Ireland could be badly affected by WTO trade rule impositions.

There'll be some UK companies that open a new Irish "brass nameplate on the door" office to try and have an EU office in a country with a UK-alike legal system.
Doubt that there will be too many jobs there.

Changing existing logistics chains to avoid UK sources and customers is difficult for small Irish manufacturers that are usually on thin margins. I think that this area could be hit badly.
If Sterling decreases excessively, tourism will be decreased.

I get the impression that the UK is going to do an emulation of DeValera's Ireland after Ireland's split with all the "self-sufficiency" political garbage. Hopefully the UK public and politics realise that it's pretty self-defeating quicker than we did.

JohnMc1

realitykeeper wrote: »

That`s because we pay ourselves far too much in this country. From a migrants point of view, 10 euro for an hours work could represent the equivalent of a weeks pay in their own country..

That's assuming that they are coming here to work. Most of them are coming for the equally generous welfare payments. They're getting council houses, €5000 emergency money to buy furniture, the regular €198 a week payments, etc. They system will only be able to handle this for so long.

ressem

There are suggestions that the majority of the existing 4 members (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Lichtenstein) of the EFTA will vote not to allow the UK (a founder member in the 1960) to rejoin the European Free Trade association, which would have been the quickest (comparatively speaking, as these things take years) method to facilitate trade with the EU.

They're worried about the UK dominating the organisation due to it's relative trading power.

You'd wonder how tough Chinese and India trade negotiations will be for Britain in this decade, when the UK seems to be in a relatively weaker position.
Talk about a renewal of the historic commonwealth is pretty false, as all negotiations between those countries are on a country to country basis.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

realitykeeper wrote: »

That`s because we pay ourselves far too much in this country. From a migrants point of view, 10 euro for an hours work could represent the equivalent of a weeks pay in their own country. In Ireland, if salaries over 50,000 were subject to 100% tax, that would serve as a salary cap. This, along with the abolition of the minimum wage, would bring be far reaching benefits. For starters, no more unskilled migrants. I mean, what would be the point in coming to Ireland if they could not make a lot of money to send home? There is another benefit, low pay all around would stop the stream of money out of the economy to the home countries of any remaining migrant`s. And, since migrant workers put downward pressure on salaries anyway, why not preempt that downward pressure by reducing pay to keep the migrants away?

With low pay, costs would plummet. It would be possible to sort rubbish by hand and every tonne of plastic, tin or paper would generate enough money to pay a living wage to the workers. As things stand, sorting rubbish by hand would be far too expensive and losses would be enormous. Europe will begin issuing fines if recycling is not stepped up in the coming years. If the cost of sorting rubbish by hand is made low enough to become profitable, there would likewise be many more opportunities in other endeavors such as crafts and manufacturing basic goods, that would then be economically viable. The indigenous industrial sector in this country would have a chance to grow.

Importantly, people (and the government) need to realize that borrowing to pay higher salaries or paying higher salaries to stimulate growth is a terrible idea. It is not sustainable. In fact, it compares with borrowing money from abroad so we can all bid against each other to push house prices higher.

Utter madness! High pay will eventually lead to widespread poverty and the ruination of the state.

That was an acid trip to read. Parts of it are true but all the conclusions are fantasy.

Practically everything you own bar what's in your fridge hasn't been produced in Ireland. If everyone was on lower wages every single individuals purchasing power would absolutely plummet. Lower wages would not in any way shape or form reduce the cost of phones, cars, tv's, non Irish food stuffs like coffee and bananas, clothes, paint, tools, stationary, building materials ect ect ect.

Lower wages would reduce debt. That is true. But getting rid of the minimum wage and enforcing a salary cap in the private sector is complete madness.

lalababa

If there is a no deal brexit goods will be more expensive in the stores for awhile as we are in the eu and uk will not be, the eu will put the usual non eu tarriffs on uk goods.
We get most of our goods from the UK, but most of those goods are made somewhere else.
Think of the UK as a distribution centre/wholesaler for Ireland. Goods coming from the eu will go via the UK ( the UK will have it's own tarrifs on these goods) back to the eu (ireland) . Resulting in a DOUBLE tarriff.
This will be extreamely short lived however as stores and supplier's will start directly shipping from eu to Ireland.

During this adaption period we will be ridden by Irish stores who import direct but say ('it's coming from UK' ). There will be a massive upswing in irish customers internet shopping from the mainland, which might continue after the adaptation due to familiarity. Resulting in a loss of market share to retailers and supplier's.

In other news I predict the 3rd secret of Fatima............to be continued.......pinch of pepper......

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

lalababa wrote: »

If there is a no deal brexit goods will be more expensive in the stores for awhile as we are in the eu and uk will not be, the eu will put the usual non eu tarriffs on uk goods.
We get most of our goods from the UK, but most of those goods are made somewhere else.
Think of the UK as a distribution centre/wholesaler for Ireland. Goods coming from the eu will go via the UK ( the UK will have it's own tarrifs on these goods) back to the eu (ireland) . Resulting in a DOUBLE tarriff.
This will be extreamely short lived however as stores and supplier's will start directly shipping from eu to Ireland.

During this adaption period we will be ridden by Irish stores who import direct but say ('it's coming from UK' ). There will be a massive upswing in irish customers internet shopping from the mainland, which might continue after the adaptation due to familiarity. Resulting in a loss of market share to retailers and supplier's.

In other news I predict the 3rd secret of Fatima............to be continued.......pinch of pepper......

The widespread use of the internet over the last 10/20 years has given every Irish person the ability to order whatever they want from the EU tariff free from the comfort of their own home. Basically every single Irish person can simply order a thousand tins of baked beans direct from Germany if all trade with the UK ground to a halt. Which truly is magnificent.

Brexit would be terrifying if the smartphone wasn't invented. With the internet and internet devices everywhere it means any issues an individual encounters can be fixed by themselves very easily. - (That's not to say Ireland as a country won't be affected economically and Northern Ireland won't cause problems)

EdgeCase

ressem wrote: »

There are suggestions that the majority of the existing 4 members (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Lichtenstein) of the EFTA will vote not to allow the UK (a founder member in the 1960) to rejoin the European Free Trade association, which would have been the quickest (comparatively speaking, as these things take years) method to facilitate trade with the EU.

They're worried about the UK dominating the organisation due to it's relative trading power.

You'd wonder how tough Chinese and India trade negotiations will be for Britain in this decade, when the UK seems to be in a relatively weaker position.
Talk about a renewal of the historic commonwealth is pretty false, as all negotiations between those countries are on a country to country basis.

The Chinese ones may go very badly as the UK has been taking quite strong likes against China's growing dominance of the South China sea and expanding naval power. I could see China letting the UK stew, as the British need access to China far, far more than China will care about access to the UK. It’s got the potential to be pretty bad.

Then Trump is also likely to try and compel the UK to support sanctions if it wants any access to the USA which is going to make life very complicated.

ressem

realitykeeper wrote: »

That`s because we pay ourselves far too much in this country. From a migrants point of view, 10 euro for an hours work could represent the equivalent of a weeks pay in their own country. In Ireland, if salaries over 50,000 were subject to 100% tax, that would serve as a salary cap. This, along with the abolition of the minimum wage, would bring be far reaching benefits. For starters, no more unskilled migrants. I mean, what would be the point in coming to Ireland if they could not make a lot of money to send home? There is another benefit, low pay all around would stop the stream of money out of the economy to the home countries of any remaining migrant`s. And, since migrant workers put downward pressure on salaries anyway, why not preempt that downward pressure by reducing pay to keep the migrants away?

With low pay, costs would plummet. It would be possible to sort rubbish by hand and every tonne of plastic, tin or paper would generate enough money to pay a living wage to the workers. As things stand, sorting rubbish by hand would be far too expensive and losses would be enormous. Europe will begin issuing fines if recycling is not stepped up in the coming years. If the cost of sorting rubbish by hand is made low enough to become profitable, there would likewise be many more opportunities in other endeavors such as crafts and manufacturing basic goods, that would then be economically viable. The indigenous industrial sector in this country would have a chance to grow.

Importantly, people (and the government) need to realize that borrowing to pay higher salaries or paying higher salaries to stimulate growth is a terrible idea. It is not sustainable. In fact, it compares with borrowing money from abroad so we can all bid against each other to push house prices higher.

Utter madness! High pay will eventually lead to widespread poverty and the ruination of the state.

Also disagree with many of your statements. And I'll try to explain why...

I'll agree that...
Political or market driven pay increases does make many worthwhile activities and industries become unaffordable.
Excessive pay disparity can also make it hard to have a good standard of living.

But the rest?
Paying small wages to allow rubbish to be sorted by hand? Then these people are going to live where? Eat what?
The government would be obliged to subsidise the living standards of these people to a minimum standard to avoid creating a no-hope underclass of worker.
Way more cost-effective to just train people to sort their rubbish at source. If they need to be lazy / thoughtless then they can pay the premium for the people & machinery to automate it for them.

What I think would happen is that people and businesses (could be Irish, EU, US, Asian, African), not restricted by these income restrictions will outbid for the (artificially price & demand decreased) assets, and have less incentive to manage them well, keep them in good shape.
(historically demonstrated by well off landlords that neglect the state of their tenancies due to disinterest )


SENSIBLE state borrowing for the purpose of wages is not a terrible idea, if the benefit to the citizens exceeds the borrowing risk.

I'm not a fan of paying everyone the same rate based on a "years served" grade though, with less heed paid to performance. That's lazy management, or a wrong belief that the cost of achieving good management exceeds the benefit.

And your statements on a threat to state income from low paid migrants, and that it justifies a massive increase in state control over all of us have occurred plenty of times in history in the last hundred years. Has it ever worked out positively?

We're a geographically isolated island with stable equally prosperous neighbouring countries. We are not having a hundred thousand low skilled migrants arriving at the ports each year, unlike Italy / Greece. Dude, relax a bit and think before calling for an authoritarian government to force control down our throats.

OldMrBrennan83

mad muffin wrote: »

And what about the bbc?! Has anyone thought about what will happen when we won’t be able to watch the bbc?! :eek::mad::(

That would be great if it did happen actually. Might stop Britifying children here.

4068ac1elhodqr

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

The widespread use of the internet over the last 10/20 years has given every Irish person the ability to order whatever they want from the EU tariff free from the comfort of their own home. Basically every single Irish person can simply order a thousand tins of baked beans direct from Germany if all trade with the UK ground to a halt. Which truly is magnificent.

Kind of, sort of, but that ignores a couple of factors i) shipping costs ii) time.

Already this exists in the form of large German discount supermarkets, that sell 3 tins of chicken soup for about the same cost as a single 500ml bottle of water from convience store. Could probably roll up to the checkout with one of their pre-wrapped crates of 24 tins of beans if desired.

Shipping costs can be reduced by economies of scale, if a car dealer orders x80 new audi cars to sell they probally send them free, but if he only requests half-dozen and they can't be sourced from excess stock via Holyhead, its more cost and time that the end user will have to account for.

ressem

Patww79 wrote: »

That would be great if it did happen actually. Might stop Britifying children here.

You think that Brexit will stop Peppa Pig's influence and views on Youtube? Do kids watch BBC anymore?

Grayson

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Kind of, sort of, but that ignores a couple of factors i) shipping costs ii) time.

Already this exists in the form of large German discount supermarkets, that sell 3 tins of chicken soup for about the same cost as a single 500ml bottle of water from convience store. Could probably roll up to the checkout with one of their pre-wrapped crates of 24 tins of beans if desired.

Shipping costs can be reduced by economies of scale, if a car dealer orders x80 new audi cars to sell they probally send them free, but if he only requests half-dozen and they can't be sourced from excess stock via Holyhead, its more cost and time that the end user will have to account for.

The UK is essentially a warehouse for Ireland. Stuff that comes from the continent goes there first. So if we're buying french wine it's bought by a UK company that sells some on to us. Now you're talking about it taking a ship all the way here instead.

RasTa

JohnMc1 wrote: »

That's assuming that they are coming here to work. Most of them are coming for the equally generous welfare payments. They're getting council houses, €5000 emergency money to buy furniture, the regular €198 a week payments, etc. They system will only be able to handle this for so long.

lol, I see this rubbish is still being spouted.

Any sources or numbers whom are getting above?

nim1bdeh38l2cw

realitykeeper wrote: »

That`s because we pay ourselves far too much in this country. From a migrants point of view, 10 euro for an hours work could represent the equivalent of a weeks pay in their own country. In Ireland, if salaries over 50,000 were subject to 100% tax, that would serve as a salary cap. This, along with the abolition of the minimum wage, would bring be far reaching benefits. For starters, no more unskilled migrants. I mean, what would be the point in coming to Ireland if they could not make a lot of money to send home? There is another benefit, low pay all around would stop the stream of money out of the economy to the home countries of any remaining migrant`s. And, since migrant workers put downward pressure on salaries anyway, why not preempt that downward pressure by reducing pay to keep the migrants away?

Will you ever go jump in a lake?

EdgeCase

Bear in mind that the UK itself will have massive shipping problems. Stores in Ireland will be more likely to be able to maintain business as usual by going via France and the Benelux.

It’s not going to be “business as usual” in the U.K. after March without a trade deal and shipping via the UK may just cease to make any sense at all. It’s more complicated than just Irish-UK relations as the UK won’t have access to many of the goods that we currently ship via British logistics anyway.

Irish retail just needs to start leveraging the single European market and looking elsewhere.

We can’t really prevent the U.K. from making decisions that will render its logistics sector useless but, we can avoid it entirely and have alternative plans.

We already have commissioned enormous ferries that go to the Netherlands carrying 14km of trucks. The EU is proposing to support Irish logistics via investment in port access.

We may need to grow air freight here to which is probably a great opportunity for Shannon as we won’t be able to simply be treated as an adjunct to the UK hubs, which will be shrinking and comparatively useless anyway due to all the customs mess they’ve created for themselves.

Things will change but we’re at least in the position of having huge market access and an ability to adapt.

4068ac1elhodqr

Grayson wrote: »

The UK is essentially a warehouse for Ireland. Stuff that comes from the continent goes there first. So if we're buying french wine it's bought by a UK company that sells some on to us. Now you're talking about it taking a ship all the way here instead.

Yes, and it might only be practical if economies of scale and excellent logistics are available.

Either buy cheaply in bulk, or store (without depreciation). Smaller high-value goods can go by air, but everything else is slow (upgraded) shipping freight.

The other (seperate) issue is indeed migration, if you were camped out in Calais expecting to reach the uk, after brexit the next option might well be the magical green land that offers nearly triple the basic welfare (JSA). The housing crisis isn't a factor for new arrivals when you pack a dozen to a room, but will increase the cost of 'service goods' (public services).

RasTa

Raina Millions Scholarship wrote: »

Yes, and it might only be practical if economies of scale and excellent logistics are available.

Either buy cheaply in bulk, or store (without depreciation). Smaller high-value goods can go by air, but everything else is slow (upgraded) shipping freight.

The other (seperate) issue is indeed migration, if you were camped out in Calais expecting to reach the uk, after brexit the next option might well be the magical green land that offers nearly triple the basic welfare (JSA). The housing crisis isn't a factor for new arrivals when you pack a dozen to a room, but will increase the cost of 'service goods' (public services).

The migrants who come to the UK come to work, since they have no documents they won't be down the welfare office getting sorted without a NI number and POI.

wexie

EdgeCase wrote: »

We already have commissioned enormous ferries that go to the Netherlands carrying 14km of trucks. The EU is proposing to support Irish logistics via investment in port access.

When you say 'we' do you mean 'we' Ireland or 'we' the company I work for?

I was wondering about that, if there's much in the way of freight that doesn't come through the UK?

Are we likely to see increases in ferries and perhaps routes between Ireland and perhaps France, Spain?

Just looking at a map and surely it would be smarter for all Ireland's exports to/imports from continental EU to go to somewhere like Roscoff, Cherbourg or somewhere similar rather than through Britain and over to the Netherlands and Antwerp/Belgium?

And would it make more sense to make Rosslare the main Irish port? What is the downside of such a route?

4068ac1elhodqr

RasTa wrote: »

The migrants who come to the UK come to work, since they have no documents they won't be down the welfare office getting sorted without a NI number and POI.

The vast majority do, however the uk also suffers from 'emergency health tourism'. Also some 'workers' may opt for a 'black market' to receive a wage, preferring cash in hand, often living in unsuitable conditions.

Many of the folks that camp out at Calais haven't been asked to leave France, nor have they opted to apply for settled refugee status there, they prefer to do so only when they reach their specific country of choice (often the uk), for lodging an offical application.

Even after a period of work, welfare can be applied for, as soon as conditions are met to avail of it.

nim1bdeh38l2cw

wexie wrote: »

When you say 'we' do you mean 'we' Ireland or 'we' the company I work for?

I was wondering about that, if there's much in the way of freight that doesn't come through the UK?

Are we likely to see increases in ferries and perhaps routes between Ireland and perhaps France, Spain?

We, Ireland

nim1bdeh38l2cw

wexie wrote: »

When you say 'we' do you mean 'we' Ireland or 'we' the company I work for?

I was wondering about that, if there's much in the way of freight that doesn't come through the UK?

Are we likely to see increases in ferries and perhaps routes between Ireland and perhaps France, Spain?

We, Ireland

wexie

Deleted User wrote: »

Just looking at a map and surely it would be smarter for all Ireland's exports to/imports from continental EU to go to somewhere like Roscoff, Cherbourg or somewhere similar rather than through Britain and over to the Netherlands and Antwerp/Belgium?

It would probably be more convenient but....Roscoff and Cherbourg are (I think) pretty insignificant ports compared to the likes of Antwerp and Rotterdam. We don't so much get exports from where would be convenient but from where they can be had. Those ports are huge hubs for all kinds of goods, for all over Europe.

Deleted User wrote: »

And would it make more sense to make Rosslare the main Irish port? What is the downside of such a route?

Maybe geographically but it would require massive investments (which we probably don't have) and also there's not much of a consumer market in Rosslare. Which would mean that lots of stuff would still have to be brought from Rosslare to Dublin and further afield. On roads that would be less than ideal for this kinda volume.

Or the cargo ships could just putter along the Irish sea for a few more hours and get to port and distribution facilities we already have.

ressem

Deleted User wrote: »

Just looking at a map and surely it would be smarter for all Ireland's exports to/imports from continental EU to go to somewhere like Roscoff, Cherbourg or somewhere similar rather than through Britain and over to the Netherlands and Antwerp/Belgium?

And would it make more sense to make Rosslare the main Irish port? What is the downside of such a route?

That map is for ferries and passenger and truck traffic. I don't suspect that this will change quickly.

The container transport system is what EdgeCase is referring to which allows a higher volume of goods to travel a longer distance more cheaply.
Dublin, Belfast, a bit out of Cork currently handle this.

Rosslare doesn't have a large container terminal yet. Would there be value in creating one? A lot of number-crunching required to decide that.