Massive price increases after brexit

JoeyJJ

Lets make a boards.ie 100% irish grown produce cookbook for a sustainable life. Who needs mangos anyway.

begbysback

Graces7 wrote: »

another seriously odd thread started by a newbie? Troll alert?

It's AH - take the serious hat off for a while

EdgeCase

Considering that hardly any clothing or consumer goods are made in the UK, we just have to switch to alternative logistics and supply chains.

You'll just find goods on the shelves that are probably suddenly something like Benelux & Ireland market rather then UK and Ireland. There's also a big opportunity for Irish food companies on the domestic market.

If, let's say a major UK supermarket with outlets here doesn't adjust its supply chains and pricing, they'll be wiped out by competitors. Things will shake down and ultimately you'll get realistic pricing very quickly.

I don't think you'll see Aldi and Lidl sitting around fretting about brexit and the likes of Dunnes and SuperValu aren't likely to either. They'll just change things around.

The only retailer I would predict big problems for is the food side of M&S as they more or less bring in everything from England.

The multinational chains will just switch logistics to continental Europe. It's no big deal to them really. Clothing, electronics and so on is all manufactured in the east anyway. A lot of heavy appliances are made in continental Europe, as are a lot of consumer products, even if they're distributed here via UK supply chains.

You could also see some of the UK multiples being incapable of adapting as they just treat the Irish market as if it were UK. I've seen plenty of places selling union jack pencil cases, England kit and even broadband splitters and phone cord that don't fit Irish sockets and even stupid stuff like DIY chains with fuse wire that has no purpose here as we never used primative rewirable fuses. Those kinds of companies will probably jack up the prices or just go bust.

Companies that failed to localise during normal times will likely just go to the wall very quickly as you can be sure they are doing no Brexit planning and some manager somewhere keeps being surprised by the fact that Cork uses Euro despite being in Eyeland.

There's a good opportunity here for companies that are prepared either from Ireland, the continent or even the UK. It's going to be 18 months or Darwinism on Main Street as various places sink or swim.

I'd expect some degree of disruption though and probably a change around of stores in some cases. It's not going to be without casualties but the dust will settle after a while and there's a lot of money to be made here in retail. It's an attractive market. They're a choice of adapt or throw it away.

So £ could nosedive after Brexit so you could find cheap UK products hitting the shelves here as we end up being the ones with the hard currency and the UK goes weak and wobbly. It's all still very unpredictable.

The UK also has a lot of underlying weaknesses, particularly being very consumer credit loaded and having had relatively low rates or economic growth and not so great job stability and so on. The whole thing could very easily come crashing down.

If you look back at British history, without the rose tinted glasses, it's gone through plenty of deep recessions, an IMF bailout in the 1970s and periods of very bad political instability that have ended in riots... Poll tax, miners strikes, power cuts, Northern Ireland in extremes of violence in the 70s and 80s... There's a long history of this. If anything the 90s and early 00s were exceptionally peaceful and progressive periods of UK history both economically and politically. Seems business as usual may be restored soon.

Harry Palmr

One thing that will be made certain (its already happening) is that UK chains will cease to invest in the Irish retail sector and will in all likelihood withdraw over the next decade.

kenmc

pjohnson wrote: »

Plenty of other EU countries we can import from. We're not obliged to help the UK.

Yeah but amazon.co.uk (free)-> parcelmotel -> under the Xmas tree. Won't someone think of the children? They're gonna get very suspicious if their toys start coming with euro 2pin plugs and German instructions.....

EdgeCase

Harry Palmr wrote: »

One thing that will be made certain (its already happening) is that UK chains will cease to invest in the Irish retail sector and will in all likelihood withdraw over the next decade.

There's no evidence of that at all. In fact the contrary is the case in many instances. Some of them are investing here while closing stores in riskier parts of England.

UK retail is going through a pretty bleak time at the moment - their days of big spend investments are over generally. There's been quite a few high profile failures in Britian and I think that's likely to become more of an issue with some of the chains dying due to pressure from online, brexit and falling consumer spending power and confidence.

Bear in mind many of those brands on the high street are multinationals too. They're well able to operate here without treating it as orbit were the UK. It just means a few adjustments and there's all the demographics and economics to keep attracting them in here.

Specific stores and also ones who've maybe only one or two stores in Ireland and have no logistics outside the UK will have big issues but most won't.

You'll also find that others will come into the market from elsewhere too.

Ireland's small but it's not that small and it's quite attractive as a market.

EdgeCase

kenmc wrote: »

Yeah but amazon.co.uk (free)-> parcelmotel -> under the Xmas tree. Won't someone think of the children? They're gonna get very suspicious if their toys start coming with euro 2pin plugs and German instructions.....

Meh, sure we used to use German type plugs until the 1970s. It's not the end of the world! We can adapt - you know with adapters...

Walter Bishop

lol at moving to the UK a few months before a probable no-deal Brexit.

EdgeCase

Well, I mean maybe if you're a disaster capitalist, it could be the place to be for bargains.

Sofiztikated

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The value of Sterling will drop after a no deal Brexit, should that happen, parity will be almost certain so importing from the UK will be very cheap and city breaks likewise.

A lot of stores in the north offering €=£ already.

4068ac1elhodqr

Harry Palmr wrote: »

One thing that will be made certain (its already happening) is that UK chains will cease to invest in the Irish retail sector and will in all likelihood withdraw over the next decade.

They already bump prices +30%circa e.g. In Argoose or clothing stores.
So just a further increases (pending fx rate) until the void is locally filled.

Maybe those french lads (Carrefour) will setup shop, and offer a ePub/PDF of their stock catalogue. From memory you could pop into one of their shops in Espana for a loaf of bread and walk out with a new fridge, sink and wheelbarrow to put it all in.

Of course if a brexit deal is made (uk access to goods markets, not services) it won't be that different when buying a new toaster.

4068ac1elhodqr

Walter Bishop wrote: »

lol at moving to the UK a few months before a probable no-deal Brexit.

Mightn't be a bad idea if seeking a promotion opportunity, all the European birds will be flying south back to warmer climes and steadier seas of the mainland, leaving temporary voids behind.

realdanbreen

topper75 wrote: »

Ah I see how you got mixed up - the L in Limerick and the L in Los Angeles. Try to read more slowly and carefully.

Out of curiousity - when was the last time you stayed in Limerick?

I was there two days ago. The buildings to the left near the Parkway looked like something out of the London blitz! From the Hunt museum up to O'Connell Street every second building was boarded up. Every other shop in William Street was either a euro shop, a bookmakers or a charity shop and I felt a bit out of place as I wasn't wearing a grey cotton tracksuit. Apart from all that it was dead classy!

Billy86

Mrhuth wrote: »

I can guarantee you that everything will increase massively. Even now our current prices are so much higher than prices in the UK so you end up buying half of the things from ebay or amazon as otherwise you're forced to pay 3 times the price compared to UK products. Most of our imports are from UK so 90% of the things will increase heavily in price after the outside EU tax. Just like buying from USA, you pay $100 on a $300 item just for taxes. UK leaving is going to crash Ireland. Should have joined the UK or colonized the world. I'm moving to the UK in a few months permanently and I'll laugh at you all when the UK doesn't babysit and support you anymore. You're gonna cry about how the evil overlord ain't protecting you anymore. Good luck, you'll definitely need it. This is what happens when you rely on someone else for life support

The art of trolling is dead.

fxotoole

Mrhuth wrote: »

I can guarantee you that everything will increase massively. Even now our current prices are so much higher than prices in the UK so you end up buying half of the things from ebay or amazon as otherwise you're forced to pay 3 times the price compared to UK products. Most of our imports are from UK so 90% of the things will increase heavily in price after the outside EU tax. Just like buying from USA, you pay $100 on a $300 item just for taxes. UK leaving is going to crash Ireland. Should have joined the UK or colonized the world. I'm moving to the UK in a few months permanently and I'll laugh at you all when the UK doesn't babysit and support you anymore. You're gonna cry about how the evil overlord ain't protecting you anymore. Good luck, you'll definitely need it. This is what happens when you rely on someone else for life support

Is that you, Boris?

realdanbreen

RobbingBandit wrote: »

I believe the right and honourable Boris Johnson has declared a fox hunt that will never end is the plan old chap

At least it's a plan! I haven't seen anything better.

realdanbreen

I think the idiocy of the Brexiteers proves that the only reason that Britain was once a powerful empire was because of the way it plundered and pillaged every nation it ever occupied. It certainly wasn't down to brainpower.

Mrhuth

realdanbreen wrote: »

I think the idiocy of the Brexiteers proves that the only reason that Britain was once a powerful empire was because of the way it plundered and pillaged every nation it ever occupied. It certainly wasn't down to brainpower.

It's a tiny country that had the biggest empire in the world where many more powerful countries existed. If that's not intelligence then I don't know what is.

my3cents

Mrhuth wrote: »

It's a tiny country that had the biggest empire in the world where many more powerful countries existed. If that's not intelligence then I don't know what is.

They may have HAD intelligence now they have just had it.

Mrhuth

my3cents wrote: »

They may have HAD intelligence now they have just had it.

What does Ireland have? Harp as coat of arms and potato famine, that's the history.

Billy86

Mrhuth wrote: »

It's a tiny country that had the biggest empire in the world where many more powerful countries existed. If that's not intelligence then I don't know what is.

This is completely true. However this was also over 70 years ago at the very least and is anything but the case today. Perhaps worst of all for large chunks of the UK is that they also don't recognise this whatsoever.

JohnMc1

Mrhuth wrote: »

Ireland relies on UK. Think or Ireland as a child inside a woman's womb. UK is the mother and if she dies, so does the child.

Most of Ireland's shipping routes go through the UK iirc. So yes things are going are going to get much more expensive in the New Year.

4068ac1elhodqr

On the other hand Scotch whiskey and Angus beef will likely increase for the reduced 'union of eng-wales'
after Scotland leaves to re-join some type of EU partnership in a few years time.

Bluefoam

In the long run things will get cheaper in ireland... Allot of our imports are routed through the UK, many of them distributed by UK companies... Their core market is competitive, and they see Ireland as small pototoes and insignificant so they apply different market dynamics to their retail strategies here... hence the ridiculous cost of anything in Ireland. Hopefully after Brexit, we'll get more autonomy and the market will become more competitive under local control.

Bexit = cheaper stuff... we'll also find other more diverse markets for our products, so happy days. It's not going to happen straight away. There will be a bit of a struggle to begin with, but the payoff will be good.

jmayo

Mrhuth wrote: »

I can guarantee you that everything will increase massively. Even now our current prices are so much higher than prices in the UK so you end up buying half of the things from ebay or amazon as otherwise you're forced to pay 3 times the price compared to UK products. Most of our imports are from UK so 90% of the things will increase heavily in price after the outside EU tax. Just like buying from USA, you pay $100 on a $300 item just for taxes. UK leaving is going to crash Ireland. Should have joined the UK or colonized the world. I'm moving to the UK in a few months permanently and I'll laugh at you all when the UK doesn't babysit and support you anymore. You're gonna cry about how the evil overlord ain't protecting you anymore. Good luck, you'll definitely need it. This is what happens when you rely on someone else for life support

Yes Ireland will be majorily affected by a hard brexit, especially our agri sector because the UK is a major primary market.
A lot of small native exporters will also be affected because after the Irish market the UK has always been the next market and it did offer 60 odd million people.

And our retail sector has a huge amount of players that are subsidiaries of UK based multinationals and they use the UK warehousing distribution arm to get things into Ireland.
How these will fair I don't know, but I expect prices to go up.

But you are delusional on a massive scale if you don't think that the UK will not be hugely adversely affected by the exit from a market of a couple of hundred million people and being excluded from EU trade deals.

BTW how are those new trade deal negotiations going. :rolleyes:

Oh and all the major multinationals manufacturing in the Uk that keeps millions in work have warned that they will probably look elsewhere if there is a hard brexit.

So good luck to you and the spanners who think this will just screw the Irish.

Anyway we know what you are trying to do here, but sadly some do actually have that opinion of Ireland.

Grab All Association wrote: »

Companies are already preparing for it. I’m seeing a hell of a lot of Spanish, German branded products like Heinz ketchup, Herbal Essences Shampoo, P&G products etc on the shelves.

Most of these products are already cheaper to import and sell than their British counterparts. €1 for a bottle of Heinz ketchup you can’t go wrong with that can you?

Companies like HBC-Coca Cola will be forced to move production back to the republic or face obliteration. Kerry foods will have to bring cheese production and packaging back to the south.

Some areas of the economy will be affected but others will thrive. If the eggs are cracked make omelettes. Ireland won’t suffer as much as your beloved England will.

Overhead this on the Limerick to Thurles train that Jaguar Landrover are apparently looking for a large premises here. They already created jobs in r&d in Shannon. R&D tends to not operate out of large premises.

Bullcr**, why would any car manufacturer move production to an island with limited transport links isolated from major markets.
And for god's sake don't say what about the islands of Japan.:rolleyes:

Jag/Landrover will like the rest of the car companies move to central Europe and the likes of the mega motor manufacturing hub of Slovakia.

Thinking a hard brexit will be good and seeing the likes of the Kerry group bringing the likes of cheese production home is laughable.

We produce enough food for 35 million people and where do you think most of it, including the cheese, is sold ?
In 2015 over 40% of that production went to the UK.

In a hard brexit our agri sector and SMEs will be decimated.

Whirl_wolle wrote: »

Ford is a UK car manufacturer and its popular here in Ireland. So without a deal, Ford cars and Ford car parts will become more expensive. Shopping local or shopping online from further afield isn't going to help here.

FFS.
Ford are and always have been a US motor company.
Yes they have manufactured in the likes of Dagenham since early 30s.
The last car built there was the Fiesta up to early 2000s.
The Fiesta is now built in Spain and the Transit is built in Turkey.

Whirl_wolle wrote: »

Thankfully Ireland is big with pharmaceutical companies however there would be medicines and other medical supplies we don't work on and come from abroad. When my pet was on medication, the medication came from the UK. So after brexit and without a deal, human and veterinary medicines will be hammered.

Other household supplies. One thing I can think of are the plugs. Ireland and the UK has different sockets and plugs to mainland Europe. If you look at many plugs there's a British standard stamp on them. After brexit and without a deal, sockets and plugs will become more expensive due to taxes etc.

Just look at most people's weekly shopping basket and check out how many items are produced in UK.
For instance if you eat Heinz baked beans anywhere in Europe it has probably come out of their massive UK plant.
The likes of Unilever manufacture in the UK, not sure if the ice cream (magnum/cornetto) still produced there, but persil I think is.

And it is isn't just what is manufactured there, but what is distributed through there.
Any additional charges for customs, tariffs, etc will hit the consumer.

If you buy a computer in Ireland then there is good chance it has been either bought in store from UK retailer or has been shipped through UK.
A lot of the stuff in our shops has come through UK.

Some like die hard nationalists will have diametrically opposite opinion to OP and be laughing thinking how the Brits will be screwed, but really we will all be screwed in event of hard brexit.

Neyite

jmayo wrote: »

BTW how are those new trade deal negotiations going. :rolleyes:

The best analogy I heard of is a husband (UK) who's left his missus (EU) for another woman. But husband still expects the ride three times a week off his ex-missus, all his dinners home cooked and put in front of him and all his shirts ironed. And he can't understand why she's being an awkward bitch by not being willing to continue to do all of this after they divorce.

Nobody has decided what to do about the kids (NI) because he refuses to accept anything in their lives will change an iota so he's not discussing it at all.

Poor_old_gill

Tell me all the things that I need to stock up on so I can spend the weekend in the shops doing so

Westernyelp

Mrhuth wrote:

If that's not intelligence then I don't know what is.

I agree. Its obvious you don't

DEFTLEFTHAND

All this talk of tax harmonisation is starting to worry me.

If we lose that Corporation rate we're in big trouble.

I've a feeling that Europe are going to start putting the squeeze on us once Britain go.

EdgeCase

I saw a 'vox pop' done in the England where one guy seriously thought Renault was a British company. Renault.. the most French of French things.