Massive price increases after brexit

realitykeeper

ressem wrote: »

Other than small craft stuff, no. Not for a long time.

If your employees and business environment have difficulty keep the assembly line stocked & running then that almost immediately becomes untrue.

Stocking parts, raw materials etc for business would be instantly easier not more difficult. For example, if I were in business and suddenly found myself in a situation where all the top salaries, including my own (anything over 50,000) would be taxed at 100% then obviously, all pay would fall to 50,000 or lower. That leaves a massive surplus not only for the usual parts but for expansion.

ressem wrote: »

Henry Ford had the famous practice of paying over the minimum to decrease turnover of trained staff.

What are the steps to get Ireland to emulate the products made by Foxconn/ Hon-hai Precision and their Foxconn cities in China, with hundreds of thousands of employees.

Henry Ford ran a company, not an economy. In Ireland, we often hear the argument that certain jobs cannot be filled because the pay is not high enough. I would argue that the pay is too high and the reason the job is not being filled is to do with the cost of living.

ressem wrote: »

That article says that in China it took 15 days to locate the 8700 engineers required for organizing the production of the product. Not possible in the US, but you consider that Ireland can?

Two things here, first the average Chinese worker earns less than 20% of the average worker in the west (they used to earn less than 10%). So, low pay gets things done. Secondly, it is not necessary to be an enormous country to start a manufacturing base. Multinationals can set up car assembly operations quite quickly, complete with all the parts they need.

For example, Volkswagen have started an assembly plant in Rwanda despite the fact that all the parts have to be trucked a thousand miles into the interior over bad roads. Cheap labour made that possible and it will mean the cost of labour can increase organically with economic growth.

ressem wrote: »

And trying to get back to topic... the EU equivalent supply chains are what Britain's politicians and voters are cutting. I really don't see that they understand this.

The African Union is rapidly integrating and the EU is showing signs of fatigue. I understand the Brits did not like the way the EU was being run and the impact that was having on the UK, but if countries do not form these trade blocks they are vulnerable to exploitation/divide and rule tactics which is one of the reasons why Africa has been so poor until now.

realitykeeper

fergus1001 wrote: »

so your saying there will be no recession ?

hahahahaha

daft

amcalester wrote: »

No I’m not, I said nothing of the sort.

And it’s you’re. I see your grammar is as good as your comprehension.

I asked when it would be? RK has been preaching impending economic doom for years, always at some vague point in the future.

I’m just wondering what his latest timescale is.

I agree with fergus1001.

wexie

realitykeeper wrote: »

Stocking parts, raw materials etc for business would be instantly easier not more difficult. For example, if I were in business and suddenly found myself in a situation where all the top salaries, including my own (anything over 50,000) would be taxed at 100% then obviously, all pay would fall to 50,000 or lower. That leaves a massive surplus not only for the usual parts but for expansion.

You'll have lots of parts and stock and no staff to do anything with it cause they'll all have buggered off to some other economy that's not ran by a deranged dictator who's capped income at 50k

The J Stands for Jay

amcalester wrote: »

When is the next recession due?

Any day now according to your previous posts or has that been pushed back, again?

There is a recession due any time now. Maybe it won't be what you're thinking of, with mass unemployment, house price collapses and EU troops on the streets to hold back the tide of public protests, bit there will be a contraction on the economy. It's well overdue at this stage.

realitykeeper

wexie wrote: »

You'll have lots of parts and stock and no staff to do anything with it cause they'll all have buggered off to some other economy that's not ran by a deranged dictator who's capped income at 50k

A 50K top income cap would mean 50k = 500k once other salaries and prices adjust to reflect that.

Just looking at the Bargain Alerts thread on buying an S9 cheaper from Germany and somebody mentioned an obvious impediment to greater integration with the EU economy: the different European sockets/plugs.

Is there any chance that we could change our sockets in all new builds from the British ones we currently use? We did change every road sign in the state (to km) in 2005, after all. If greater economies of scale/cost savings can be achieved by integrating into EU standards in this regard, it is surely something we should move towards asap. Any Irish government plans for it yet?

wexie

realitykeeper wrote: »

A 50K top income cap would mean 50k = 500k once other salaries and prices adjust to reflect that.

yeah but unless that works worldwide people will still leave.

And how would you manage to get the prices of all the things we are currently importing down?

Do you actually think Ireland could manage to be completely self sufficient? Cars, TV's medical equipment, computers etc. etc. etc. etc.

Try to work this out in your mind, or on a sheet of paper. Start from the ground up and you'll pretty quickly realize we have little in the way of natural resources. We'll need to import them, who will be buy them from? At what prices?

realitykeeper

ressem wrote: »

If your employees and business environment have difficulty keep the assembly line stocked ....

wexie wrote: »

You'll have lots of parts and stock and no staff ....

I am getting mixed messages from the naysayers.

wexie

realitykeeper wrote: »

I am getting mixed messages from the naysayers.

Oh I didn't mean to say that you'd actually have lots of parts (cause you wouldn't). Was just using that to explain that you wouldn't have any staff.

You might have some, the ones that would earn less than 50k anyways. But the more experienced, educated and specialized ones would be

realitykeeper

wexie wrote: »

yeah but unless that works worldwide people will still leave.

And how would you manage to get the prices of all the things we are currently importing down?

Do you actually think Ireland could manage to be completely self sufficient? Cars, TV's medical equipment, computers etc. etc. etc. etc.

Try to work this out in your mind, or on a sheet of paper. Start from the ground up and you'll pretty quickly realize we have little in the way of natural resources. We'll need to import them, who will be buy them from? At what prices?

Unskilled immigration would stop and yes working abroad would offer greater opportunities than it does now, both of which are good things.

As mentioned, Rwanda is assembling vehicles even though all the parts have to be trucked over bad roads into the interior.

The average Rwandese worker earns only about $5 per day. Are there any vehicle assembly plants in Ireland at present?

wexie

realitykeeper wrote: »

The average Rwandese worker earns only about $5 per day. Are there any vehicle assembly plants in Ireland at present?

So what you're proposing is we should tank the economy in order to allow companies from other stronger economies the opportunity to come here and exploit our cheap labour

Who do you think paid for that vehicle assembly plant in Rwanda? And who do you think is profiting from it?

I'll give you a hint, it's definitely not Rwanda or the Rwandan people

5rtytry56

wexie wrote: »

I'll give you a hint, it's definitely not Rwanda or the Rwandan people

Yes.

OldRio

McGaggs wrote: »

There is a recession due any time now. Maybe it won't be what you're thinking of, with mass unemployment, house price collapses and EU troops on the streets to hold back the tide of public protests, bit there will be a contraction on the economy. It's well overdue at this stage.

There always is. It's how capitalism works. Rich get richer. Poor get poorer.
Rinse recycle repeat.

Chesty08

Mrhuth wrote: »

Britain will always survive, like it did through history. Ireland now is a different story, economic crash after economic crash. Always massively up and massively down. There is not balance whatsoever. A housing crisis in a country with extremely low population and population density.

This I can agree with

realitykeeper

wexie wrote: »

So what you're proposing is we should tank the economy in order to allow companies from other stronger economies the opportunity to come here and exploit our cheap labour

Who do you think paid for that vehicle assembly plant in Rwanda? And who do you think is profiting from it?

I'll give you a hint, it's definitely not Rwanda or the Rwandan people

The people who get the profits are the same people who got them when Rwanda imported all its cars. Are you saying nobody should buy cars in case someone makes a profit?

Sofiztikated

realitykeeper wrote: »

The average Rwandese worker earns only about $5 per day. Are there any vehicle assembly plants in Ireland at present?

What's the working and living conditions like for those workers, and why should I, as a below average income earner want to give up what little comforts I do enjoy, to live like that.

wexie

realitykeeper wrote: »

The people who get the profits are the same people who got them when Rwanda imported all its cars. Are you saying nobody should buy cars in case someone makes a profit?

No not at all.
What are you saying then? That we'd somehow be better off making 5$ a day like the Rwandans cause we're assembling VW's?

Timberrrrrrrr

Mrhuth wrote: »

I can guarantee you that everything will increase massively. Even now our current prices are so much higher than prices in the UK so you end up buying half of the things from ebay or amazon as otherwise you're forced to pay 3 times the price compared to UK products. Most of our imports are from UK so 90% of the things will increase heavily in price after the outside EU tax. Just like buying from USA, you pay $100 on a $300 item just for taxes. UK leaving is going to crash Ireland. Should have joined the UK or colonized the world. I'm moving to the UK in a few months permanently and I'll laugh at you all when the UK doesn't babysit and support you anymore. You're gonna cry about how the evil overlord ain't protecting you anymore. Good luck, you'll definitely need it. This is what happens when you rely on someone else for life support

Just what we need, another economic immigrant:rolleyes:

wexie

Really what your whole rant/system/idea comes down to is :

Those North Koreans....they're onto something, their system just needs a few tweeks and we can make it work

Signore Fancy Pants

I heard 10p bags of sweets that are currently selling for €1 will end up being €5 because of Brexit.

Fcuking bastards.

ressem

realitykeeper wrote: »

Unskilled immigration would stop and yes working abroad would offer greater opportunities than it does now, both of which are good things.

Skilled, permanent emigration would increase.
Skilled immigration would decrease.
Moderate unskilled migration can be beneficial for businesses struggling to recruit and able to bear the cost of training.

The effect of losing those people can close high value industries, leaving us scrabbling around to retain jobs in lower value, lower margin more globally competitive and mobile businesses.

realitykeeper wrote: »

As mentioned, Rwanda is assembling vehicles even though all the parts have to be trucked over bad roads into the interior.

The average Rwandese worker earns only about $5 per day. Are there any vehicle assembly plants in Ireland at present?

No VW just think that the transport links are so bad, that this is the cheapest method to ship cars to their own new sub-division.

VW is going to try and keep these for their own use in a sort of UBER equivalent. The cost of ownership is too unaffordable for people on these low incomes.
(This might give VW a head start, if Rwanda ever becomes richer, with second hand VWs being sold locally, and a base of VW knowledgable garages and parts decreasing future costs. But it is a gamble, not very expensive I'd hope)

https://www.economist.com/business/2018/06/28/vw-opens-rwandas-first-car-assembly-plant wrote:

Past projects by carmakers in Africa, he admits, have ended in “monumental failure”.

Yet there was a hopeful mood when VW launched its operations in Kigali, the Rwandan capital, on June 27th. The moment opens ”a new chapter in Rwanda’s journey,” said Paul Kagame, the president, after taking a demonstration model for a spin. In truth, little of the manufacturing will happen locally, at least to begin with. VW will build its vehicles elsewhere, partly dismantle them, then put them back together in Rwanda.

Billy86

Chewbacca wrote: »

I heard 10p bags of sweets that are currently selling for €1 will end up being €5 because of Brexit.

Fcuking bastards.

I know a jelly guy... PM me.

realitykeeper

ressem wrote: »

Skilled, permanent emigration would increase.
Skilled immigration would decrease.
Moderate unskilled migration can be beneficial for businesses struggling to recruit and able to bear the cost of training.

The effect of losing those people can close high value industries, leaving us scrabbling around to retain jobs in lower value, lower margin more globally competitive and mobile businesses.



No VW just think that the transport links are so bad, that this is the cheapest method to ship cars to their own new sub-division.

VW is going to try and keep these for their own use in a sort of UBER equivalent. The cost of ownership is too unaffordable for people on these low incomes.

And yet they plan on increasing production there to tens of thousands of cars every year. The desire to develop an UBER type service is more to do with the fact that Rwanda is smaller than Wales with a population of eleven million and growing. If everyone had a car, there would be gridlock.

ressem

realitykeeper wrote: »

And yet they plan on increasing production there to tens of thousands of cars every year. The desire to develop an UBER type service is more to do with the fact that Rwanda is smaller than Wales with a population of eleven million and growing. If everyone had a car, there would be gridlock.

I don't think VW would be too concerned about hundreds of thousands of it's cars being sold at better than break-even prices & causing gridlock.
Currently most of the vehicles are EU and Asian second hand vehicles. I imagine that VW's local partners will try to get government contracts buying patriotic local Rwandan assembled vehicles.
As Ireland would have before the EU put restrictions on that behaviour.

Anyways, you have your live case study. We'll see how it develops (since the quote about the failure of previous car manufacturing despite similarly low wages is being ignored.)

amcalester

McGaggs wrote: »

There is a recession due any time now. Maybe it won't be what you're thinking of, with mass unemployment, house price collapses and EU troops on the streets to hold back the tide of public protests, bit there will be a contraction on the economy. It's well overdue at this stage.

Of course there will, I’m not claiming otherwise.

But RK’s predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt, he’s been making the these prophecies for years so eventually he’ll be right. He’s nothing more than a stopped clock though.

Irish Guitarist

tritriagain wrote: »

Maybe shop local? Support the local retailers. If you don't , don't moan when they're gone.

Your local shop must be massive.

ToddyDoody

Mrhuth wrote: »

I can guarantee you that everything will increase massively.

Lidl and Aldi. Merkel herself gets her bran flakes in Aldi.

4068ac1elhodqr

Perhaps the likelyhood is for a last minute Norway style deal, wherby the uk pay a bit extra to have something similar to full membership.
So only slight price rises.

Another factor or likley event is the push towards another election (labour win) in November, with exit-delay and hard push for 2nd ref 2019 (which will anger 17.4m).
Guess it worked in other countries, when they got question wrong, they were simply asked again.

Kermit.de.frog

Mrhuth wrote: »

Ireland relies on UK.

Gunmonkey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »