US considering Preemptive Strike against North Korea.

XsApollo

cnocbui wrote: »

You wont know about it until you see news reports just coming in. A little thing called the element of surprise is quite valued by military commanders.

I doubt it in this case,
It's probably one of the biggest reasons that the kims haven't been toppled yet.
It would be very foolish to not alert the population of Seoul beforehand.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

With absolutely every player in the game on high alert, the element of surprise simply isn't there. There is a far greater risk of a "false positive" triggering a retaliation, which in turns is retaliated against.

I disagree. You start trying to evacuate Seoul and you are sending a clear signal and pretty much inviting per-emptive action from the Loons. That is completely different from bombs suddenly raining from an apparently clear sky (B2) and all your radar screens suddenly getting snowed for the single digit minutes before the HARMs break the screens into small pieces.

Of course a certain level of buildup and positioning of assets would lead to an expectation, but that doesn't negate there being an advantage to even a few minutes of surprise.

Jesus Wept

alright dolanbaker m8

Je suis Mario

Je suis Mario wrote: »

alright dolanbaker m8

yeah grand just getting the popcorn ready for the big (non)event.

Cheerful Spring

If it takes place it be on the Saturday or Sunday? North Korea could just do nothing, and this will ease the tensions for awhile.

Kim know's he can't win a ground war, he's military lacks modern tanks and planes. And he know's North Korea will be nuked if they launch them first. China's influence behind the scenes? Are they telling them be smart don't launch a missile or test a nuke?

This is not a WW3 event at the moment. You only got a handful of countries involved in this. If nukes went off, us in the west, were not going to feel or see the blasts.. The worry for us here China or Russia someway got involved after it all started and kicked off? Nuclear blasts destroying cities could affect the Earth climate?. The loss of civilian life will be huge.

Maybe America carries out an attack that cripples North Korea nuclear capabilities. This will require good intelligence and America don't have enough agents spies to know what the North is up to?

I have a feeling Kim may back down today. But eventually there come a time Trump will have to strike. Or maybe that's wishful thinking at all start tomorrow and everyone will be watching the tv?

Beyondgone

jackboy wrote: »

I suspect if the US attacks then NK will fold very quickly. The damage to the south will be minimal. Can't see those malnourished poorly trained badly equipped troops putting up a battle.

Hmm. the last Korean war didn't go so good for the US.. Once bitten and all that..

Gatling

Beyondgone wrote: »

Hmm. the last Korean war didn't go so good for the US.. Once bitten and all that..

They had north Korea beaten and in retreat until 150,000 Chinese troops got involved and pushed the US and UN forces back under General McArthur who made a massive tactical error in splitting his main forces

Beyondgone

Gatling wrote: »

They had north Korea beaten and in retreat until 150,000 Chinese troops got involved and pushed the US and UN forces back

So you're saying nothing has changed then? How many troops has China sent to monitor the situation? 150,000 isn't it?

Gatling

Beyondgone wrote: »

So you're saying nothing has changed then? How many troops has China sent to monitor the situation? 150,000 isn't it?

Big difference America knows they are there ,but as Saddam Hussein found out large number of forces condensed together make for easy targets

Manic Moran

wes wrote: »

North Korea would almost immediately wipe Seoul out with conventional weapons.

Well, no, actually. Only a couple hundred tubes out of DPRK's entire artillery park can actually reach that far, and at that, that's with them being fairly close to the border. They can shut the city down for a while and cause an element of panic (assuming that folks can't remember where their bunkers are), but that's about the size of it.

A Little Pony wrote: »

I hope the US has invasion plans in place like Normandy. Its a matter of time.

I suspect that Inch'on is the landing that is more in the minds of Pyongyang.

I'd have thought the obvious thing to do would be to target them and wipe out it's power grid cutting off supply to the capital and all military areas , or am I totally underestimating North Korea , what are it's military capabilities compared to Russia or America ?

As was said many years ago, you can't bomb someone into the stone age if they are already in the stone age. Assume that pretty much any system of military necessity has its own petrol or diesel generator, and anything else is old-school enough that it doesn't need it. Old-fashioned firing tables may not be particularly efficient or flexible, but they do work, especially in numbers.

There is only one Super power on the planet at the moment, it's arguable that the States has the Millitary power to take on the next 9 biggest armies.

If only that were the case. The US would be pressed to take on the entire Chinese Army, let alone Chinese and Indian together. Their air forces and navies won't be too happy, mind, and the cost would to even just the Chinese would be huge. But if one is willing to pay it...?

Ultimately, I don't see things coming to a head. We have two choices: Accept a nuclear DPRK or not. If not, given that years of talks, sanctions etc have failed, there is very definitely an argument for taking military action now as opposed to risking it later, with a nuclear DPRK.

Irish Praetorian

Beyondgone wrote: »

Hmm. the last Korean war didn't go so good for the US.. Once bitten and all that..

I'm not so sure, saving half the Korean Peninsula from being part of the insane Kim regime seems like a win. In the unlikely event things devolve into a land war I can imagine there needing to be some kind of modus vivendi between the (south) Korean forces and US + China.

Honestly, if we got a reunified Korea, free of US military bases, we wouldn't be doing so badly.

Beyondgone

Gatling wrote: »

Big difference America knows they are there ,but as Saddam Hussein found out large number of forces condensed together make for easy targets

Codswallop. There would be 1,500,000 thrown in to replace them.

Beyondgone

The US attacking N korea would have nothing to do with the US attacking N korea. It would be the US thumbing their noses at China. And that's a whole nother ball of wax.

Cheerful Spring

Beyondgone wrote: »

The US attacking N korea would have nothing to do with the US attacking N korea. It would be the US thumbing their noses at China. And that's a whole nother ball of wax.

China don't need North Korea. The only reason China would involve itself in a conflict would be to secure the border. They likely also see a unified Korea as a bad thing for security reasons. It would be in China's best interests to install a friendly puppet government! That's kind hard to do though when North Korea got weapons of mass destruction and can use them against China too. China is stuck in the middle of this.

Cheerful Spring

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I'm not so sure, saving half the Korean Peninsula from being part of the insane Kim regime seems like a win. In the unlikely event things devolve into a land war I can imagine there needing to be some kind of modus vivendi between the (south) Korean forces and US + China.

Honestly, if we got a reunified Korea, free of US military bases, we wouldn't be doing so badly.

America troops never left Japan and that conflict ended 60 years ago. Unified Korea is great for business, but bad for China.

threeball

Gatling wrote: »

Big difference America knows they are there ,but as Saddam Hussein found out large number of forces condensed together make for easy targets

God there's some awful crap on this thread. The very idea that China or the US will engage in anyway is ridiculous. Money trumps all and there is no way either is going to jepordise the current trade.

Nk havent the capability to take on South Korea in a war let alone the US and there is no way Kim is giving up the cushy life to start an unwinnable conflict.
Even if he is a total dip**** and fires off the few firecrackers that he has they will be shot down immediately. Most likely China will then annex North Korea to appease the Yanks and ensure a united korea never happens. A united korea is an economic behemoth and a threat to chinas trade advantages in south east asia.

cnocbui

threeball wrote: »

God there's some awful crap on this thread. The very idea that China or the US will engage in anyway is ridiculous. Money trumps all and there is no way either is going to jepordise the current trade.

Nk havent the capability to take on South Korea in a war let alone the US and there is no way Kim is giving up the cushy life to start an unwinnable conflict.
Even if he is a total dip**** and fires off the few firecrackers that he has they will be shot down immediately. Most likely China will then annex North Korea to appease the Yanks and ensure a united korea never happens. A united korea is an economic behemoth and a threat to chinas trade advantages in south east asia.

The Chinese won't act. They have been miscalculating for decades. They are not about to change their spots as events have overtaken them and it's too late. Their witless foreign minister is still trying to jawbone things.

tonycascarino

Anything actually happening on this front or is it just the usual craving for WWIII from the media??

Mr.Micro

threeball wrote: »

God there's some awful crap on this thread. The very idea that China or the US will engage in anyway is ridiculous. Money trumps all and there is no way either is going to jepordise the current trade.

Nk havent the capability to take on South Korea in a war let alone the US and there is no way Kim is giving up the cushy life to start an unwinnable conflict.
Even if he is a total dip**** and fires off the few firecrackers that he has they will be shot down immediately. Most likely China will then annex North Korea to appease the Yanks and ensure a united korea never happens. A united korea is an economic behemoth and a threat to chinas trade advantages in south east asia.

With Trump having the codes, anything is possible. If the US keeps poking a stick at NK, then an unpredictable Kim may feel he has lost, so **** it, launch.

jamesbere

CNN reporter live in N Korea now, Says unlikely that nuclear test will happen this weekend

Mr.Micro

Mr.Micro wrote: »

If the US keeps poking a stick at NK, .

I think you have this the wrong way round....

threeball

cnocbui wrote: »

The Chinese won't act. They have been miscalculating for decades. They are not about to change their spots as events have overtaken them and it's too late. Their witless foreign minister is still trying to jawbone things.

I meant they would act if Nk launched an attack. It is not in their interest to have the US sitting on their border or have a united Korea so they definitely will act if Nk make the first move.
What's not so certain is what they'll do if trump decides to pull the trigger first.

Bobeagleburger

Any war with NK would be incredibly messy with no winners.

Can't see it happening. If NK instigate the US would go in hard and who knows what could happen.

The US wouldn't be stupid enough to start it you would think. All it would need is another powerhouse siding with NK and its carnage. Who knows though with a thin skinned leader in charge.

threeball

threeball wrote: »

I meant they would act if Nk launched an attack. It is not in their interest to have the US sitting on their border or have a united Korea so they definitely will act if Nk make the first move.
What's not so certain is what they'll do if trump decides to pull the trigger first.

I think the days when countries wanted some buffer zone around them are over. Of course, no country wants foreign troops amassing on their border or strategic installations going up, as Russia feared in Eastern Europe during the 00s. But I'd say once China received assurances about what might happen after, their interest in maintaining the basket case that is NK would diminish. I can't see them hurling huge sums or effort at propping up that regime.

ChikiChiki

RoboKlopp wrote: »

Any war with NK would be incredibly messy with no winners.

Can't see it happening. If NK instigate the US would go in hard and who knows what could happen.

The US wouldn't be stupid enough to start it you would think. All it would need is another powerhouse siding with NK and its carnage. Who knows though with a thin skinned leader in charge.

The Trump administration would be in my opinion.

On another note its been reported that new ICBMs were paraded in Pyongyang today.

Dubh Linn

What are the odds or chances now of a war over NK?

NoviGlitzko

What's the solution here?

Bomb the place into oblivion.
Setup a new puppet government.
Tell the people it's democracy.
Setup a central bank.
Loan them billions to rebuild.

Sure have seen this story before.

threeball

threeball wrote: »

God there's some awful crap on this thread. The very idea that China or the US will engage in anyway is ridiculous. Money trumps all and there is no way either is going to jepordise the current trade.

Nk havent the capability to take on South Korea in a war let alone the US and there is no way Kim is giving up the cushy life to start an unwinnable conflict.
Even if he is a total dip**** and fires off the few firecrackers that he has they will be shot down immediately. Most likely China will then annex North Korea to appease the Yanks and ensure a united korea never happens. A united korea is an economic behemoth and a threat to chinas trade advantages in south east asia.

The best case scenario would be for the NK regime to collapse after a short war and for the US & China to agree not to occupy the country and just allow reunification.
If Korea was ever to reunite, the costs of reviving the north would be a millstone around their economy for decades, so it's unlikely to be than much of a threat to China.

Bobeagleburger

ChikiChiki wrote: »

The Trump administration would be in my opinion.

On another note its been reported that new ICBMs were paraded in Pyongyang today.

Yeah, he's too unpredictable.

A war with them could cost a huge amount of lives though and potentially cripple the US economy.

Nervy times in South Korea I'd imagine!

ChikiChiki

NoviGlitzko wrote: »

What's the solution here?

Bomb the place into oblivion.
Setup a new puppet government.
Tell the people it's democracy.
Setup a central bank.
Loan them billions to rebuild.

Sure have seen this story before.

Probably best to do nothing and let the fat one throw tantrums every so often and generally just ignore him.

But if its going to be military action I'd imagine the plan is to have the Korean peninsula re united and the South Koreans take control.