League of Ireland Betting 2017

Division

Sligo Rovers v Finn Harps

Both Teams To Score (Yes) - Percentage Chance

Paddy Power: 60% - Odds 1.67

William Hill: 52.35% - Odds 1.91

My betting model before adjustments for recent news: 63.54% - Odds 1.58

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Which of us are closest to what you think the real percentage is?

crustyjuggler

Keep in mind that Morrissey is suspended for Harps though .

Division

Very difficult to find a good resource for the league that will give news more than a day before the game. You are just aware he got a red card or you have a good news source?

The red card is obvious but an accumulation of yellows is easy to miss and injury news is very difficult to get.

ShamoBuc

Division wrote: »

Very difficult to find a good resource for the league that will give news more than a day before the game. You are just aware he got a red card or you have a good news source?

The red card is obvious but an accumulation of yellows is easy to miss and injury news is very difficult to get.

He was sent off in their last match, straight red, easier to keep up when you actually follow the league and the loi football threads on here and elsewhere.

Gavin "shels"

On Dundalk/Cork - it's live on RTE which generally means a dull game... well at least very game shown normally is.

inforfun

I guess Cork is due a win as i think they are a bit stronger than last season where Dundalk went backwards a bit
But they have a **** plastic pitch in Dundalk which helped them to a great home form over the last few seasons.

And all that wisdom is open to be shut down by someone actually watching the LOI. I will not be mad. I promise

joeysoap

inforfun wrote: »

I guess Cork is due a win as i think they are a bit stronger than last season where Dundalk went backwards a bit
But they have a **** plastic pitch in Dundalk which helped them to a great home form over the last few seasons.

And all that wisdom is open to be shut down by someone actually watching the LOI. I will not be mad. I promise

Wow! We got to June before mention of the 'new' plastic pitch. And to be fair to Cork City, JC didn't mention it until he was asked about it.

Derry will be all weather next year and Dalymount when it's developed in the future

The last pitch was Sh*te, this pitch looks good and I haven't heard one 'away' manager mention it post match.

Fwiw Dundalk beat Maccabi, and drew with AZ and Legia on grass pitches, saying that, the are not as strong this year and City have definately improved. Clean sheet in the last 4 league matches, but that might be due to the opposition.

inforfun

I find all plastic pitches ****e, not just Dundalks. It wasnt an attack on Dundalks pitch

It is easy to prove that "plastic" clubs have an unfair advantage at home. That is why i mentioned it that they have a plastic pitch.

You play football on grass. Only exception i am willing to make is for Tromso because they are north of the pole circle.

joeysoap

inforfun wrote: »

I find all plastic pitches ****e, not just Dundalks. It wasnt an attack on Dundalks pitch

It is easy to prove that "plastic" clubs have an unfair advantage at home. That is why i mentioned it that they have a plastic pitch.

2016 (1st) - 38 home points, 39 away points (1 match more)

2015 (1st) - 40 home points (1 match more) - 38 away points

2014 (1st) - 40 home points ( 1 match less) - 34 away points

2013 (2nd) - 33 home points (1 match more) - 35 away points

And

2012 (11th and last) 11 home points - 9 away points (even no. of home/away)

If you'r good (or bad) plastic or grass doesn't make that much difference. Fwiw Dundalk say they may change to grass in the future but didn't have enough time for a grass pitch to bed in this year.

Gavin "shels"

***LEAGUE OF IRELAND BETS***
3 bets last weekend with just one winning Myself, Aidan, Graeme and Alan have discussed and are happy with the below large bet! Tough set of fixtures so keeping it to a minimal. We were weighing up Bohs (but potential injuries) could be worth a bet depending on teams, Aidan will be at the game so potential inplay bet. Both Teams to Score in the Dublin Derby between Rovers/Pats was also mentioned.

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Cobh -v- Wexford Friday 7.45pm
3rd placed Cobh host last placed Wexford. Wexford come into the back of this on a 5-0 loss away to Longford. While Cobh on the back of a 0-0 draw with League leaders Waterford and previously a 1-0 win over 2nd placed UCD.
Cobh have been solid at home this season with 4 wins and 3 draws - managing 4 clean sheets. Cobh are always a tough team to break down in St.Colmans Park, even against the best.
Wexfords away form this season reads one draw (first away game of the season) with the last 6 aways being losses with them also failing to score in all 6 while conceding 14.
Wexford only had 4 players on the bench against Longford last week. Of their starting 11 last week, 2 of these our missing due to suspension and 1 to injury. Wexford are having to call up a few U19 players in their place. This will be a depleted Wexford team!

Cobh -0.75 AH (GENERAL) @ 1.70 LARGE STAKE

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inforfun

joeysoap wrote: »

2016 (1st) - 38 home points, 39 away points (1 match more)

2015 (1st) - 40 home points (1 match more) - 38 away points

2014 (1st) - 40 home points ( 1 match less) - 34 away points

2013 (2nd) - 33 home points (1 match more) - 35 away points

And

2012 (11th and last) 11 home points - 9 away points (even no. of home/away)

If you'r good (or bad) plastic or grass doesn't make that much difference. Fwiw Dundalk say they may change to grass in the future but didn't have enough time for a grass pitch to bed in this year.

Dundalk dominated the league and more than likely would have done so on grass, gravel or asphalt as well. They were by far the best team.

Where it does get iffy is for example a club like Heracles in Holland whose history in the eredivisie looks like this
https://gyazo.com/fa5f57b21f8ced19e4118770c15fc6a4
5 years eredivisie in 50 years prior to switching to a plastic pitch in 2003. Immediately better results in the 1st division, promotion and bar 1 season, never in real trouble for relegation.

ShamoBuc

Pp have their extratime.ie of Bohs, Rovers Cobh at 4/1 about a point higher than bet365
Like the last 2 weeks, looks good on paper but I would like to think this has a very real chance of winning. Bohs are a bit hot and cold but at home to drogs you would have to fancy them, saw drogs v city and they were absolutely Awful! Rovers at home are always hard to beat and Pats are bottom for a reason. Cobh are in good form and Wexford are bottom for a reason.

I am putting 50 on it as I do think it has a very good chance.

For interest in the big game on network 2
City dnb 11/10
McMillan anytime 6/4

Guffy

Dundalk, derry, rovers 13/2 on betway if anyone is interested

Trimm Trabb

My bets for tonight are combinations of the following:

Cobh -1 (got at 6/4 but value gone now)
Shamrock Rovers win 8/13
Sligo v Finn Harps BTTS 8/11
Under 2.5 Athlone v Waterford 11/10
Under 2.5 Derry v Galway 5/6
2 or 3 goals in Dundalk v Cork 10/11

Cobh and Sligo-Harps BTTS my main interests. Cobh to win both halves 10/3 also - Wexford have been very very poor this year.

ShamoBuc

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Pp have their extratime.ie of Bohs, Rovers Cobh at 4/1 about a point higher than bet365
Like the last 2 weeks, looks good on paper but I would like to think this has a very real chance of winning. Bohs are a bit hot and cold but at home to drogs you would have to fancy them, saw drogs v city and they were absolutely Awful! Rovers at home are always hard to beat and Pats are bottom for a reason. Cobh are in good form and Wexford are bottom for a reason.

I am putting 50 on it as I do think it has a very good chance.

For interest in the big game on network 2
City dnb 11/10
McMillan anytime 6/4

Cobh barely scramble a win. Bohs draw and rovers are drawing with 10 men currently , is there someone up there who doesn't like these trebles? All 3 sides put in below par performances.

City win...rather easily, so it's not all bad.

Trimm Trabb

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

My bets for tonight are combinations of the following:

Cobh -1 (got at 6/4 but value gone now)
Shamrock Rovers win 8/13
Sligo v Finn Harps BTTS 8/11
Under 2.5 Athlone v Waterford 11/10
Under 2.5 Derry v Galway 5/6
2 or 3 goals in Dundalk v Cork 10/11

Cobh and Sligo-Harps BTTS my main interests. Cobh to win both halves 10/3 also - Wexford have been very very poor this year.

1/6 - my head will remain hung in shame for the rest of the evening.

Bateman

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Cobh barely scramble a win. Bohs draw and rovers are drawing with 10 men currently , is there someone up there who doesn't like these trebles? All 3 sides put in below par performances.

City win...rather easily, so it's not all bad.

Bohs have been moedrate at home and much better away for a couple of years now, absolutely no urgency in the home games but often overpriced on the road, very frustrating

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

Cobh -0.75 AH (GENERAL) @ 1.70 LARGE STAKE

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Was a half win!

Bateman

Derry look the bet of the year this weekend

ShamoBuc

Bateman wrote: »

Derry look the bet of the year this weekend

Not sure about that.
Bray have lost 2 of 8 at home.
Derry have won 2 of 8 away scoring 7 goals in those 8 games.

I'll be on over 2.5 and maybe take a chance on over 3.5
Also over 1.5 fhg in Finn Harps game 9/4

Gavin "shels"

***LEAGUE OF IRELAND BETS***
Summer break is over! We closed off the first half of the season off with a half win on a Large Stake. Myself, Aidan, Graeme and Alan have discussed and are happy with the below 3 bets! We were weighing up Cork -1.5 (but potential injuries and players out) could be worth a bet depending on teams.

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UCD -v- Shelbourne Friday 7.45pm
3rd place play 6th in Belfield on Friday evening, with 12 points and 18 goals separating them. Last time the two met in Belfield, Shels were utterly humiliated after being 4-0 down with 29 minutes of the game. Since then, Shels have also managed to be mauled by relatively new side Cabinteely 4-1 in Tolka Park which is one of the low points in the clubs 122 year history.
UCD come into this just 4 points off top spot, while Shelbourne have managed just 4 points in their last 8 League games, of which they've failed to score in 5 of the 8 games.
Shelbourne look like being down to the bare minimum player-wise, with both James O’Brien and Dave O’Leary suspended, Aidan Collins and Chris Lyons missing out through injury, Mikey Murphy (exams) and Alan Byrne (away) unavailable and Jack Tuite and Mark Hughes doubtful, both having tonsillitis during the week.

UCD Win (GENERAL) @ 10/11 MEDIUM STAKE

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Waterford -v- Cabinteely Friday 7.45pm
Waterford are top of 3 teams who remain in with a chance of promotion from the first division this season. They finally kicked into top gear in the previous game with a 6-1 demolition of Athlone Town in a game where double figures would not of flattered the score line.
Cabinteely have been a tough side this season but with 3 players suspended including goalkeeper they may find the task of coming to Waterford a daunting one with the Blues picking up 19/21 pts at home this season.
The previous game in the RSC between both sides ended in a 3-0 win for Waterford and we expect something similar if Waterford have the same shooting boots on as last time out.

Waterford -1 AH (GENERAL) @ 1.80 SMALL STAKE

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Longford -v- Cobh Saturday 7.30pm
5th host 2nd on Saturday evening, with Cobh coming into this on the back of 3 wins and 1 draw of which all 4 were clean sheets. Longford have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, their 5 goals came against bottom side Wexford - a game which was "new manager syndrome" for caretaker manager Gary Cronin.
Last time out, Longford failed to score against a Shelbourne side who played the 2nd half with just 9 men - a game which finished 0-0.
Cobh are normally a solid team at home but realistically they shouldn't be losing to an out of form Longford team away.
Longford were struggling with injuries before the break, no team news of yet but they could be without a few again.

Cobh Draw No Bet (Boyles) @ 23/20 SMALL STAKE

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Trimm Trabb

The extratime.ie special this week is Cork, UCD and Bray-Derry BTTS at 11/2.

Guffy

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

The extratime.ie special this week is Cork, UCD and Bray-Derry BTTS at 11/2.

??? Where?

Pp enhanced... ok

ShamoBuc

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Not sure about that.
Bray have lost 2 of 8 at home.
Derry have won 2 of 8 away scoring 7 goals in those 8 games.

I'll be on over 2.5 and maybe take a chance on over 3.5
Also over 1.5 fhg in Finn Harps game 9/4

Bray win 3-2 happy with that, only 1 fhg in rovers game, forgot to mention it but my favorite bet of the season when city are at home came in again, -1 second half handicap

Gavin "shels"

Don't remember the last time I've witnessed Shels come from behind to win, a game of two halves. Medium lost but Waterford Small won. Cobh up later still.

Shanotheslayer

Gavin shels wrote: »

Don't remember the last time I've witnessed Shels come from behind to win, a game of two halves. Medium lost but Waterford Small won. Cobh up later still.

Was so upset by this myself.

I saw UCD 1-0 up at HT and was watching the RBall.

UCD had 5 corners to Shels 1. I took Shels RT7 as they seemed to start quick 2nd half. 23/1.

Pulled it back to 5-5 corners, but then UCD got two. Couldn't believe it.

Division

How do you think Cork will approach the game against Derry with the Europa League game on next week?

ShamoBuc

Division wrote: »

How do you think Cork will approach the game against Derry with the Europa League game on next week?

Full steam ahead I think. Don't think players will be rested, they had their 2 weeks off already.
City have a fairly decent record in Derry, although the match is not actually in the brandywell.

City and over 2.5 8/5
City win btts 13/5 take my fancy


Loi accum
City, Dundalk, Rovers, Bray dnb, over 2.5 in bohs game nearly 9/1

Division

ShamoBuc wrote: »

Loi accum
City, Dundalk, Rovers, Bray dnb, over 2.5 in bohs game nearly 9/1

I like this accum. Will swap in BTTS instead of over 2.5 goals as 1-1 is quite likely I think.

ShamoBuc

4 of the 5 games last Friday were over 2.5

10 on the overs at 22/1 on pp for added interest.

Also taking city and rovers double at 13/10