Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

Villain

Captain Snow wrote: »

Theirs a band of rain going to cross the country tonight when it interacts with the cold air some places may see wet snow. Mountainous areas will see lying snow

The same for tomorrow evening too.


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98342048&postcount=1719

Interestingly Harmonie keeps most of tomorrow evenings rain and snow mix mainly confined to coastal counties in the East but the Wicklow Mountains could see some snow for sure if you want your snow fix Lugnaquila might offer it Sunday morning but not for the faint hearted in cold conditions.

Captain Snow

Villain wrote: »

Interestingly Harmonie keeps most of tomorrow evenings rain and snow mix mainly confined to coastal counties in the East but the Wicklow Mountains could see some snow for sure if you want your snow fix Lugnaquila might offer it Sunday morning but not for the faint hearted in cold conditions.

Sunday will be a brisk day for walking in the snowy mountains ......in some counties:D

snowstorm445

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Not hilarious. It is a bit amusing how some tried to deflect their own disappointment by pointing fingers at all those "mad yolks" on Netweather. Also brings an evil smile to think of those who jumped onto the "Snowlercoaster ride" now sitting stranded in a puddle of damp mist. But not hilarious. No.

Not really fair. Some people were genuinely happy to see the end of damp and dreary weather to be replaced by a good snowy spell, and who could blame them. Unless your schadenfreudic there's nothing funny about that. :P

And it has to be said the outrage on Netweather at even the slightest backtrack in model output is ridiculous. :rolleyes: I generally avoid looking at Netweather for feedback because it almost invariably involves people clearly far too emotionally invested in the models throwing monumental tantrums, very disconcerting. You'd swear their lives depended on it. Boards people may be disappointed, but you really have to look for yourself to see what I mean. It's in a league of its own.

Lumi

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

The ramping and overhyped reaction of others. And when this is questioned or tempered a bit your called bitter....or get PMs asking you to stop posting anything other than the daily mail/express view of things.

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Not hilarious. It is a bit amusing how some tried to deflect their own disappointment by pointing fingers at all those "mad yolks" on Netweather. Also brings an evil smile to think of those who jumped onto the "Snowlercoaster ride" now sitting stranded in a puddle of damp mist. But not hilarious. No.

Mod Note

These type of posts are pointless and add nothing of value to the thread.
Move on please.

Thanks to those who took the time to report these

Iancar29

I think it would be best to close this thread for the time being. Winter Chat thread is more than capable to follow any frost and mountainous snow events.

cherryghost

Before you do, here's our dying dreams.

Bigcheeze

So if the reality rarely reflects the cold that is modelled, why are the model algorithms not tweaked to reflect reality?

Captain Snow

Bigcheeze wrote: »

So if the reality rarely reflects the cold that is modelled, why are the model algorithms not tweaked to reflect reality?

Chaos Theory..:)

Kingswood Rover

What with the advance in computing power i wonder why the models around the kind of cold spells that excite seem to break down most of the time, you think they would be thinking to themselves, nah sod that every time i come up with that solution it goes tits up so fcuk that its goin to be wet, windy and miserable......yea pretty much covers it... methinks those computer models are secret boardsies cold fans as well.

Speak Now

cml387 wrote: »

Were you around when D*r*m*n used to post? This is tame in comparison.

He's still here

Stealthfins

That's needs an ecumenical answer.

Elmer Blooker

cherryghost wrote: »

Before you do, here's our dying dreams.

I can't find much wrong with +156 especially after the December we suffered.
I think there are more twists and turns to come.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010812/gfs-1-156.png?12

Bigcheeze

Captain Snow wrote: »

Chaos Theory..:)

Right, but if say 90% of 7 day cold predictions result in downgrades over a 10 year period, that's not chaos.

snowstorm445

Iancar29 wrote: »

I think it would be best to close this thread for the time being. Winter Chat thread is more than capable to follow any frost and mountainous snow events.

Yerra sure let's just see what the pub run has to say before we do.

Could easily be crap but there could be a silver lining you never know. We need straws to clutch.

Captain Snow

Bigcheeze wrote: »

Right, but if say 90% of 7 day cold predictions result in downgrades over a 10 year period, that's not chaos.

You can safely say thats a true statement.

WheatenBriar

cml387 wrote: »

Were you around when D*r*m*n used to post? This is tame in comparison.

Lol, you'd want to have been around for weatherchecks early ones back in 2004/5
I'll see if I can dig one out

Villain

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/685564000319475712

Pretzill

They weather has been lovely crisp, cold and bright here in the Northwest - -2 last night - frosty mornings. Even had some ice on the water butts today.

I don't see any resemblance to 2010 which was extraordinary but what I do see is very similar to 2009 although a little later - after a very wet November and terrible floods in 2009 we got some really frosty days until we got a lovely heap of snow on the 20th of December and a white Christmas - soft snow not iced arctic like 2010. So I'm hopeful for some snow but then a I'm probably living in a more favourable area and on higher ground.

Thanks for all the models - it's very interesting to see them.

WheatenBriar

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Lol, you'd want to have been around for weatherchecks early ones back in 2004/5
I'll see if I can dig one out

Ooops the particular one I was looking for seems to have been deleted, was he a mod here for a while
Anyhow, sometimes they were hilarious
But I'll always remember my co mod who worked for Met Eireann at the time saying he saw great promise in him and there you go years later he went on to study meteorology
Awww shucks


Anyway with regards to matt's tweet,just goes to show doesn't it that stage two isnt a pipe dream yet

Villain

We better get some decent low temps, I have Carlowweather.com updating every 30 seconds now

Wx

Pretzill wrote: »

They weather has been lovely crisp, cold and bright here in the Northwest - -2 last night - frosty mornings. Even had some ice on the water butts today.

I don't see any resemblance to 2010 which was extraordinary but what I do see is very similar to 2009 although a little later - after a very wet November and terrible floods in 2009 we got some really frosty days until we got a lovely heap of snow on the 20th of December and a white Christmas - soft snow not iced arctic like 2010. So I'm hopeful for some snow but then a I'm probably living in a more favourable area and on higher ground.

Thanks for all the models - it's very interesting to see them.

Analogue/persistence forecasting has little or no value in long range forecasting for Ireland.

Calibos

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Ooops the particular one I was looking for seems to have been deleted, was he a mod here for a while
Anyhow, sometimes they were hilarious
But I'll always remember my co mod who worked for Met Eireann at the time saying he saw great promise in him and there you go years later he went on to study meteorology
Awww shucks


Anyway with regards to matt's tweet,just goes to show doesn't it that stage two isnt a pipe dream yet

I remember when Weathercheck was a 5th Year or Leaving Cert Weather Nerd enthusiast. Has it really been 10 years? Is he a PHD Meteorologist with 2.5 kids and a Mortgage now? Jesus I'm getting old.

patneve2

Well it truly is a forecasting nightmare re. next week. Messy, messy output from the GFS at 160hrs: high pressure to the south of Ireland, high pressure over Greenland, high pressure over Western Russia, low pressures thrown here and there over the Atlantic, Scandinavia and Svalbard. Can still go anyway in my opinion. Meanwhile, over here in Denmark a very light but constant snowfall has dumped about 6cm of snow in the last 24 hrs or so. More accumulations expected tomorrow followed by more snowfall mid-week. Nice to see but not as exciting as seeing snow at home!

km79

BBC news graphic just showed a fair whack of snow over cork/ Kerry possibly limerick tonight !

Villain

Lol the Pub run has gone for the top shelf

homolumo

Villain wrote: »

Lol the Pub run has gone for the top shelf

Tease us with the juicy bits...

Cantona's Collars

km79 wrote: »

BBC news graphic just showed a fair whack of snow over cork/ Kerry possibly limerick tonight !

Been pissing rain here in Wexford.:(

I'd take anything other than rain at this stage,it dropped to 4c yesterday then it rose to 6c by midnight.

cherryghost

18z has nothing

Nabber

What a pile o crap Such a messy image. Pretty sure that's a loop in the isobars off the coast of Canada covered by1004
Don't think the models know what to do with anything after +96....
We can be assured that GFS is not SKYNET

Speak Now

cherryghost wrote: »

18z has nothing

There's enough in it to show nothing's decided yet