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Storm Desmond - High Winds 4/5 December 2015

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    #152
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    For what it's worth, WRF NMM 5km has 200mm over high ground in Mayo by 6pm Saturday.


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    #153
    Weatherproof79
    Closed Accounts Posts: 174 ✭✭Weatherproof79


    It showed 200-250mm over high ground in the severe flooding in Donegal last month. I'm not really familiar with it tho tbh


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    #154
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Last evening's EC didn't have anything too drastic wind wise
    (DO NOT REPRODUCE IMAGE)


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    #155
    FWVT
    Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Last evening's EC didn't have anything too drastic wind wise
    (DO NOT REPRODUCE IMAGE)

    Even so, I think it's overdoing the gusts again, just like it did on Sunday. I can't see 75 kts anywhere. I would say <65 kts. Unless it is referring to mountain gusts?


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    #156
    eastmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 669 ✭✭✭eastmayo


    And still no rainfall warning from met eirann


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    #157
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    FWVT wrote: »
    Even so, I think it's overdoing the gusts again, just like it did on Sunday. I can't see 75 kts anywhere. I would say <65 kts. Unless it is referring to mountain gusts?

    It is mph on that image.


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    #158
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    7am Sat. Looks mean.

    370590.PNG

    New Moon



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    #159
    FWVT
    Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    It is mph on that image.

    Ah yes, so it is. That would be more like it. :)


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    #160
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I think max gusts will be in the range of around 120 km/h and restricted to coastal areas in the west. But nevertheless a long period of windy weather even if wind speeds won't be remarkable.

    The rainfall looks like being the more interesting element though. Widespread flooding in the west possible.

    15120600_2_0400.gif


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    #161
    FWVT
    Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    David Rogers at 7.55 am said max gusts 90-100 kph.


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    #162
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Frontal analysis at 6am. Warm front drawing rapidly closer.

    370593.PNG

    Already getting a quite a few ominous sounding gusts here that have already broken the 34 knot barrier. As was the general view yesterday, gust speeds won't be the big issue with this event, but mean speeds look to be consistently high for an extended period so they will be quite noticeable.

    New Moon



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    #163
    axe2grind
    Registered Users Posts: 577 ✭✭✭axe2grind


    eastmayo wrote: »
    And still no rainfall warning from met eirann
    I am curious about this, surely well within time frame to issue some sort of an alert, even if it's amended as later guidance comes in.


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    #164
    marvin80
    Registered Users Posts: 1,817 ✭✭✭marvin80


    Barna77 wrote: »
    Same here.

    Bumpy take off... or no take off at all :mad:

    From this thread, looks like there will be delays at least because of those strong winds.

    We're going over and back to Gatwick in the one day tomorrow so it could really mess up our day.


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    #165
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    The rain doesn't look like it's going to be so bad in the south (except for Kerry) am I right?


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    #166
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    axe2grind wrote: »
    I am curious about this, surely well within time frame to issue some sort of an alert, even if it's amended as later guidance comes in.

    Will be out in a few minutes.


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    #167
    Weatherproof79
    Closed Accounts Posts: 174 ✭✭Weatherproof79


    Yeah they just removed the wind warning so expect new warnings soon


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    #168
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    As expected

    STATUS ORANGE

    Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo
    Southwest winds with mean speed of 55 to 75 km/h will gust 100 to 120 km/h. Winds will be strongest for coastal areas.


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    #169
    axe2grind
    Registered Users Posts: 577 ✭✭✭axe2grind


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Will be out in a few minutes.

    But not for rain yet...


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    #170
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    axe2grind wrote: »
    But not for rain yet...

    More warnings will be added shortly. I'd imagine an orange rain warning too that might get upgraded to red later for certain areas.


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    #171
    corsav6
    Registered Users Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭corsav6


    The wind seems to be coming from the west for now, some decent gusts early on too.
    I have a feeling this is going to be a long weekend.


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    #172
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Red rainfall warning for Connaught Donegal Clare and Kerry

    Yellow wind warning for other parts of the country, nothing about rainfall yet


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    #173
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A straight red.

    STATUS RED

    Rainfall Warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare and Kerry

    Incessant falls of heavy rain overnight and for all of Saturday. Accumulations in excess of 70mm expected, with greater totals on higher ground.


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    #174
    Weatherproof79
    Closed Accounts Posts: 174 ✭✭Weatherproof79


    Orange warning for cavan Clare Cork and limerick. 50-70mm expected


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    #175
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,886 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Amazed at a red warning.
    Immediate danger to life isn't it?

    Not necessary imo


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    #176
    omicron
    Registered Users Posts: 818 ✭✭✭omicron


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Amazed at a red warning.
    Immediate danger to life isn't it?

    Not necessary imo

    They have set requirements for Red warnings, danger to life is not one of them, >70mm rain in 24 hrs is.
    The issue of RED level severe weather warnings should be a comparatively rare event and implies that recipients take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily; by staying indoors; or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions
    2. Rain 70mm or greater in 24 hrs
    50mm or greater in 12 hrs
    40mm or greater in 6 hrs


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    #177
    axe2grind
    Registered Users Posts: 577 ✭✭✭axe2grind


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Amazed at a red warning.
    Immediate danger to life isn't it?

    Not necessary imo
    Read here
    Red alert
    2. Rain 70mm or greater in 24 hrs
    50mm or greater in 12 hrs
    40mm or greater in 6 hrs


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    #178
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,886 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Fair enough but I still think it's over hyper
    Time will tell it's just my opinion.
    The west is well used to rain and bear in mind yesterday's rain was mainly a southeast event.

    Local spot flooding is likely


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    #179
    Weatherproof79
    Closed Accounts Posts: 174 ✭✭Weatherproof79


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Amazed at a red warning.
    Immediate danger to life isn't it?

    Not necessary imo

    Last night you said you didn't see more than two inches 50mm of rain over 2-3 day period you said it was standard. Well you were wrong

    It meets the criteria of a red warning. No immediate danger to your life? Yes there is for those near rivers, near flood plain. Roads near streams and burns etc. It's an incredible amount of rain falling so areas that don't usually flood will. And the West isn't used to this amount of rain hence the red warning

    The models show it, met professionals are forecasting it. So what is your problem? Will it take a death to make it worthy of a red warning?

    The one that blows a bit of transient snow out of proportion dismisses a red warning for no reason


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    #180
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ould 'deasy' is on the way!


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    #181
    omicron
    Registered Users Posts: 818 ✭✭✭omicron


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Fair enough but I still think it's over hyper
    Time will tell it's just my opinion.
    The west is well used to rain and bear in mind yesterday's rain was mainly a southeast event.

    Local spot flooding is likely

    Whether or not the criteria they've set for a red warning are correct is another issue, however in this case the pre-existing criteria have been met so they're right to issue the warning.

    I reckon they probably shouldn't set the bar so low for red warnings, and they don't take regional differences into account (70mm in the east would have far more effect than in mountainous areas in the west) but that's an issue for another time.


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