Storm Desmond - High Winds 4/5 December 2015

JanuarySnowstor

I'm uncertain what model is suggesting 100 mm of rain

2 inches tops looks the bulk of it to me and that's spread over 2-3 days
If we keep issuing red alerts the public will get complacent and when a REAL event comes along won't listen

JCX BXC

Based on what I've seen over the past few hours, I'm not going to have fun here in wide open west clare.

Weatherproof79

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm uncertain what model is suggesting 100 mm of rain

2 inches tops looks the bulk of it to me and that's spread over 2-3 days
If we keep issuing red alerts the public will get complacent and when a REAL event comes along won't listen

Euro 4 if you read back over you'll see it. And it's up 12pm Saturday from when the rain starts tomorrow so it's within a 24hr period. Real weather indeed if your house gets flooded

Tactical

Iancar29 wrote: »

Its gonna be a long haul for people living areas prone to strong SW winds!

Lurvly

I'm well exposed, fun times

Oneiric 3

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm uncertain what model is suggesting 100 mm of rain

2 inches tops looks the bulk of it to me and that's spread over 2-3 days
If we keep issuing red alerts the public will get complacent and when a REAL event comes along won't listen

Even if this was the case, it is concerning. Heavy winds and driving rain that will not only make outdoor activites 'challenging' to say the least, but this rain is falling on near or totally saturated ground. Add to this that ever drop of rain that is going to fall will be going nowhere -- fast, because RH values will be high, leading to minimal evaporation rates. Even a spell of light rain under such conditions can lead to some local flooding, such as flooded roads, driveways and fields etc.

Chris_5339762

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting to see the difference on the models. Euro4 more than double that in places by the same time.

Whats also interesting about that is 127mm for a part of Scotland and 153mm for a bit of Norway too...

Padster90s

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'm uncertain what model is suggesting 100 mm of rain

2 inches tops looks the bulk of it to me and that's spread over 2-3 days
If we keep issuing red alerts the public will get complacent and when a REAL event comes along won't listen

There's been 2 red alerts. The first one Darwin was a very real event. I was stuck in the middle of it watching people hang on to lamp posts in Limerick! The second was Rachel, which thankfully wasn't as severe as predicted.
Two red alerts isn't excessive.

maquiladora

One bit of good news (for some) about the rain is that it looks like the real heavy persistent stuff will probably be confined to western coastal counties. The rest of the country could see a lot less.

maquiladora

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Whats also interesting about that is 127mm for a part of Scotland and 153mm for a bit of Norway too...

Due to the very high ground.

JCX BXC

Well then

feargale

RubyK wrote: »

Waterford half marathon is on Saturday morning 10.00am, so it could be a rough day for runners and volunteers

With that wind at your back you could break the world record!

squarecircles

Pretty wild on the mayo coast Saturday if this happened.

km79

hoping to wake up in morning and see all that rain has shifted more north

Hooter23

A slight upgrade on the winds for Friday and Saturday I think

JCX BXC

Looking at the Met Eireann website, I have winds with at least a mean speed of +28knots from 18:00 Friday - 18:00 Saturday.
Not looking forward to it.

maquiladora

18Z ARPEGE has totals starting to reach 150mm by the end of Saturday night in West Galway. Could be completely wrong of course.

Chicken Run

Carnacalla wrote: »

Looking at the Met Eireann website, I have winds with at least a mean speed of +28knots from 18:00 Friday - 18:00 Saturday.
Not looking forward to it.

I feel your pain... I'm halfway up a mountain in East Clare with an 80 mile return commute to and from work on Friday and Saturday on country roads. Not looking forward to it at all.
That's if the forest I live in the middle of isn't partially felled by the weather...

pauldry

Looking at bbc weather I reckon some stations in Ireland may get 90mm of rain over weekend particularly Galway mace head , mayo newport, donegal finner.

Gusts Friday saturday could max at 70 knots

25000 homes without power not out of question

So Desmond. What you got?

redsteveireland

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z ARPEGE has totals starting to reach 150mm by the end of Saturday night in West Galway. Could be completely wrong of course.

That doesn't sound good for people out there as ground is saturated and roads around connemara were blocked recently due to flooding with some areas cut off completely.

Will see how far in from the coast the heavy stuff comes as the rivers are quite high and will not have much chance to recover.

maquiladora

Latest Euro4, up until 6pm Saturday. Highest figure here is 129mm but there is an area shaded 150mm too. Definitely red warning territory.

Huge contrast with the east coast!

JCX BXC

Knock TAF (Aviation Forecast) for 11pm showing 31knots gusting 50kts from 12-3pm tomorrow, (57.4km/h Gust 92.6km/h), pretty strong considering that's not the peak of the storm.

Weatherproof79

And the rain isn't expected to clear until the early hours of Sunday so that isn't the final total. Just saw the BBC weather and they mentioned 36 hours of continuous rain

Barna77

marvin80 wrote: »

What mph would usually cause a disruption?

(Flying early Saturday morning)

Same here.

Bumpy take off... or no take off at all :mad:

maquiladora

Weatherproof79 wrote: »

And the rain isn't expected to clear until the early hours of Sunday so that isn't the final total. Just saw the BBC weather and they mentioned 36 hours of continuous rain

And even after that another period of rain is expected Sunday night through Monday morning, again heaviest in the west.

Weatherproof79

Friday 12pm to Saturday 12pm

https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2015_12/5660d02aa5b44_viewimage(1).png.e0429babf7c20d9ded8c34c6c1d38661.png

Storm 10

One great indication of a storm coming is to check Marine Traffic and see how ships and fishing trawlers clear off the West Coast to shelter or go to a port, there is nothing showing there now but there was a lot there today

squarecircles

Violent storm force 11 scraping the mayo coast tomorrow afternoon.

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

One great indication of a storm coming is to check Marine Traffic and see how ships and fishing trawlers clear off the West Coast to shelter or go to a port, there is nothing showing there now but there was a lot there today

Shipping Forecast mentioned force 10 for Shannon, Rockall and Malin.

Meteorite58

Sea Area Forecast just now only mentioning F8 - F9 and that there is a Yellow warning. They are playing it cool.

M.T. Cranium

Note to any moderator reading, please edit thread title to include "and heavy rainfall" taking out the word "early" ...

... continuing the earlier caveat that level two conditions will be confined to certain regions as discussed but also that level three conditions are possible in a few areas and residents of those areas should be on high alert for actionable flooding to develop by Saturday morning. I think a number of posts have discussed those details and the general rule would be that if you have streams in your vicinity draining any high ground nearby, you may be in a level three zone. Once again, I don't think this will affect a very large percentage of the population but even if it's a few hundred here and there, it is a substantial public safety risk overall, not to mention possible long-term damage to roads due to washouts.

The higher resolution models are clearly picking up strong signals of orographic rainfall which tends to be a process more than a moving event. Orographic rainfall maxima can only happen on upslope areas so there is no potential for these rainfall maxima to be displaced to some other location. They either happen there, or not at all. However, there is some uncertainty in terms of total rainfalls from other processes on lower terrain and some chance of estimates being displaced there.