Storm Desmond - High Winds 4/5 December 2015

Bigcheeze

Met Eireann going with a Yellow warning for tomorrow.

fred funk }{

Bigcheeze wrote: »

Met Eireann going with a Yellow warning for tomorrow.

I'd say it'll be upgraded.

Psychosis

Its not great out there alright

Padster90s

Lunchtime weather said there'll be warnigs tomorrow for the wind. Potential for storm force winds.

sryanbruen

Do you think this is gonna be a named "storm"?

maquiladora

sryanbruen wrote: »

Do you think this is gonna be a named "storm"?

Not sure since the strong winds tomorrow will be the result of a tightening gradient over the country rather than a usual low passing close to the country and then a second phase of winds on Saturday possibly caused by a wave depression passing over the country.

lol5605

What will the wind be like up the Belfast direction, I'm taking the Ferry to Cairnryan in the evening. Anyone familiar with this route? They don't seem to cancel as much as Dublin - Holyhead.

maquiladora

Worth mentioning again that the heavy rain today combined with more rain in the days ahead will lead to saturated ground in some areas. Even modest gusts can be enough to topple some trees in those conditions.
Even today I see on twitter some trees have come down and there was a mudslide in west waterford so the ground is already pretty saturated in places.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Not sure since the strong winds tomorrow will be the result of a tightening gradient over the country rather than a usual low passing close to the country and then a second phase of winds on Saturday possibly caused by a wave depression passing over the country.

I reckon if they deemed the winds to be strong enough to cause inconvenience and potential damage etc, that they will name it, regardless of the actual structure of the storm. But I could well be wrong.

Weatherproof79

Saturday system has been upgraded on the latest gfs. 70mph plus possibly 80mph in some locations

squarecircles

Forecast on rte one,emphasising very heavy rainfall,more vague about the winds.

squarecircles

They did say there would be an orange warning,but I'm not sure if this refers to wind or rain.

maquiladora

squarecircles wrote: »

They did say there would be an orange warning,but I'm not sure if this refers to wind or rain.

I'd expect both eventually.

Padster90s

RTE definitely emphasizing the rainfall more so than the wind. I can't remember the word the forecaster used to describe the expected rain but it wasn't a word they usually use in forecasts! Personally I'd be more concerned with the rain. I've seen places flooded the last few day that I've never seen flooded. Rivers are centimeters away from bursting if they haven't already...it'll be an interesting weekend...

Clonmel1000

Padster90s wrote: »

RTE definitely emphasizing the rainfall more so than the wind. I can't remember the word the forecaster used to describe the expected rain but it wasn't a word they usually use in forecasts! Personally I'd be more concerned with the rain. I've seen places flooded the last few day that I've never seen flooded. Rivers are centimeters away from bursting if they haven't already...it'll be an interesting weekend...

Incessant I think was the word they used.

leahyl

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Incessant I think was the word they used.

One of Siobhans favourites! Along with relentless :-D

Padster90s

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Incessant I think was the word they used.

Yeah it was something along those lines! If they're right this rain on top of whats already fallen with cause havoc.

Padster90s

leahyl wrote: »

One of Siobhans favourites! Along with relentless :-D

Relentless rings a bell alright but I've honestly never heard her say Incessant before!

Villain

Well the eagle isn't buying into this storm anyway, just said windy with yellow warning tomorrow and tomorrow night then said Saturday will be wet but never mentioned wind at all for Saturday!

Weatherproof79

leahyl wrote: »

One of Siobhans favourites! Along with relentless :-D

Don't forget "In the mix"

Oneiric 3

Padster90s wrote: »

RTE definitely emphasizing the rainfall more so than the wind. I can't remember the word the forecaster used to describe the expected rain but it wasn't a word they usually use in forecasts! Personally I'd be more concerned with the rain. I've seen places flooded the last few day that I've never seen flooded. Rivers are centimeters away from bursting if they haven't already...it'll be an interesting weekend...

The ground is very saturated here following on from nearly 200mm last month. I think the potential for local flooding in parts will be a main issue over the weekend.

Padster90s

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The ground is very saturated here following on from nearly 200mm last month. I think the potential for local flooding in parts will be a main issue over the weekend.

Agree with you there. Drains and manholes in my area have started backing up, fields look like swamps and the rivers are the highest I've seen since 2009. Think ME are right to take more of a rain angle on this one.
When are the next batch of charts out?

FWVT

Sea area forecast just issued. Nothing too remarkable in it.

Sea Area Forecast until 1800 Friday 04 December 2015


Issued at 1800 Thursday 03 December 2015


Gale warning: in operation.

Small craft warning: refer to gale warning.

Meteorological situation at 1500: A wave depression of 1004hPa in the south Irish Sea will continue to drift into Britain this evening as a westerly airflow becomes established over Ireland.

Forecast for all Irish coastal waters and the Irish Sea
Wind: West force 4 to 5 but northwest force 6 or 7 in the south Irish Sea at first., backing southwest overnight and increasing force 5 to 6, backing south to southwest tomorrow and increasing gale 8 to strong gale 9.
Weather: Rain or showers.
Visibility: Generally good overnight, but locally poor in rain.

Warning of heavy swell: Along Atlantic coasts.

Outlook for a further 24 hours until 1800 Saturday 05 December 2015: Gale or strong gale force south to southwest winds will continue tomorrow night and during Saturday.

Next update before 0100 Friday 04 December 2015

Oneiric 3

Padster90s wrote: »

Agree with you there. Drains and manholes in my area have started backing up, fields look like swamps and the rivers are the highest I've seen since 2009. Think ME are right to take more of a rain angle on this one.
When are the next batch of charts out?

ECM 12z run should be finished at around 7pm

http://www.vedur.is/vedur/sjovedur/atlantshafskort/#teg=urkoma

M.T. Cranium

My take on the latest guidance is that it continues the themes already developed in this thread.

On the wind potential, that will be mostly a west coast issue and because the wind direction is SSW to SW, the direct impact on Galway Bay will be less able to transfer strong winds inland there, than with similar westerly gale to storm force wind events. When the stronger winds spread further east by Saturday morning, they will only be level one in a few locations, but it should be stressed that level two wind alert conditions will be almost steady state from mid-day Friday to late Saturday on the Atlantic coasts especially around Belmullet. Peak gusts in the 120 to 130 km/hr range appear likely there.

As to the rain potential, this will actually exceed level two in a few parts of the west, notably Connemara and western Mayo, Donegal, some parts of Clare and higher terrain in Kerry and nearby west Cork and Limerick, so a level three rain advisory should be in place locally where streams flow out of higher ground in those counties, especially Connemara from the guidance -- level two somewhat more widespread in the western coastal regions, and level one extending a few more kms inland and here or there in higher parts of the central and southern, eastern counties. It probably won't reach advisory levels in some places in lower elevations of the central and eastern counties but more depends on where rivers rise and drain, than what rainfall they receive locally, so would factor that into any planning considerations.

To summarize then, this will be a significant wind event mainly in west coastal locations and a significant rainfall event mainly on or near high terrain. Fortunately the heavy rain potential does not overlap the areas flooded today in the southeast except possibly over some parts of Wicklow and Carlow near the higher portions of the Wicklow Mountains. That area should be watched for renewed flood potential.

It will be interesting to hear from Galway posters about how water flows develop into the city from nearby lakes as I gather those watersheds are partially managed flows, and having lakes involved can slow down the rate of flooding downstream, however, it may become an actionable situation independent of how much rain falls on the city since the problem is mainly created upstream. I would expect perhaps 35 to 50 mm of rain in Galway city (compared to 100-150 in nearby Connemara) over the period Friday to Sunday. As Oneiric3 suggests, many areas of Connacht should take a moderate rainfall advisory seriously as water levels are already quite high. Flooding may be difficult to avoid if many rivers are already near bankfull levels.

The guidance suggests that total rainfalls of 50-100 mm are likely over these higher areas and locally could reach 150 mm. Then there will be further similar amounts from Monday to Thursday in several more rounds. Some lower portions of central counties may only see 10-20 mm in these same intervals, so it will be mostly a localized (although severe in potential) rain-flood event.

maquiladora

Oneiric 3

Excessive rainfall over the weekend and possible update to 'Orange' regarding wind warning. Siobhan Ryan on RTE Six-One Weather just now.

km79

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Excessive rainfall over the weekend and possible update to 'Orange' regarding wind warning. Siobhan Ryan on RTE Six-One Weather just now.

incessant AND relentless !

pad199207

Anyone who hasnt heard siobhan say 'excessive' 'relentless' or 'incessant' should watch the six one forecast!

Oneiric 3

km79 wrote: »

incessant AND relentless !

That too